Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.
Featured Publications
Security Through Cooperation: Space, Nuclear Weapons, and U.S.-Russia Relations after the Cold War
Rose Gottemoeller uses lessons learned from U.S.-Russia relations during the George H. W. Bush and Clinton administrations to offer insights into how Russia today may be convinced to end its war against Ukraine and resume cooperation for the sake of global security.
Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder
A clear-eyed look from Michael McFaul at how the rise of autocratic China and Russia are compelling some to think that we have entered a new Cold War—and why we must reject that thinking in order to prevail.
The National College Entrance Examination shapes the future of millions of students in China each year, but Hongbin Li and Ruixue Jia illuminate how this test of all tests is also shaping education, labor markets, political legitimacy, and social values beyond the PRC.
The massive flow of migrants from rural to urban areas in China over the past decades has sparked concerns about the development of left-behind children. Drawing on a six-round, longitudinal cohort survey in rural China from 2013 to 2023 that follows children from 6 months to 11 years of age, we analyse the effects of two maternal migration patterns – persistent migration (migration without return) and return migration (migration followed by return) – on the cognitive development and nutrition of left-behind children from infancy to early adolescence. The results show that persistent maternal migration has adverse effects on the cognitive development and increased the BMI of left-behind children. In contrast, maternal migration had no significant effect on either cognitive development or any indicator of nutrition when the mother later returned. Persistent maternal migration had a strong, long-term negative effect on the cognitive development of left-behind children especially when mothers migrate within one or one and a half years after childbirth; maternal migration also had a short-term, negative effect on cognitive development when mothers migrate when the child is between 2 and 3 years old. These effects are likely driven by the lower levels of stimulating parenting practices and dietary diversity provided by the stand-in primary caregivers of left-behind children.
Humanities and Social Sciences Communications,
December 12, 2025
The connections between bullying and student well-being in rural areas are not well understood, particularly among younger, more vulnerable students. This study aims to explore the relationship between bullying experiences and the academic performance and mental health of primary and junior high school students in rural China. The sample comprised 1609 students from 30 schools (20 primary schools and 10 junior high schools) in Gansu province. A self-report questionnaire was used to collect data on students’ demographics, bullying experiences, mental health, and social support. Additionally, a 30-minute standardized math test was administered to assess academic performance. Results indicated that bullying was prevalent in rural settings, with 42.64% of students reporting being bullied and 12.74% experiencing it weekly. A significant correlation was found between bullying experiences and both lower academic performance and higher risk of mental health problems, such as depression and anxiety. These correlations became more pronounced with increased frequency of bullying incidents. We also found that female students and younger students who were bullied were more likely to report mental health issues. Furthermore, social support could diminish, but not entirely counteract, the adverse associations between bullying and mental health. These findings highlight the prevalence of bullying among rural students in this age group and demonstrate the associated negative outcomes for their mental health and academic performance. They also emphasize the need for targeted attention and the development of intervention programs, including enhanced school-based anti-bullying initiatives and improved social support systems.
Essay within "Designing Europe’s Future: AI as a Force of Good," published by the European Liberal Forum EUPF (ELF), edited by Francesco Cappelletti, Maartje Schulz, and Eloi Borgne.
China’s urbanization has created growing peri-urban communities, where children face challenges to early childhood development (ECD) despite proximity to developed urban areas. Little is known about how the environmental factors of ECD differ between rural migrants and new urban residents. To address this, we sampled 77 peri-urban households with 18–24-month-old Han Chinese children to examine the associations between early cognitive and language development, parental self-efficacy, stimulating parenting practices, and the home language environment measured with Language Environment Analysis (LENA). We find that rural migrants and new urban residents exhibited no significant difference in any child or household characteristic except parental residency. There was no significant difference in the family environment factors or early cognitive or language development, either. However, parental self-efficacy and stimulating parenting practices both predicted better cognitive and language development in rural migrant households, whereas only conversation turn counts predicted better language development in new urban resident households.
Background The quality of parenting can affect the developmental outcomes of young children. This study aims to investigate the associations between parenting quality and the early childhood development of children under age 3 across four major rural subpopulations in China.
Methods Using a stratified cluster sampling method, 760 children aged 6–36 months and their primary caregivers in four rural subpopulations from four provinces and a metropolis in China were surveyed. Child development was assessed by the Third Edition of the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development. Parenting quality was measured using the Family Care Indicators. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-tests, multivariable regression analysis, and linear regression analysis.
Results Across the four subpopulations, prevalences of delays of the sample children in four domains — cognition, language, social-emotional, and motor development are 52%, 45%, 52%, and 19%, respectively. The proportion of children with any type of delay is 82%, while over half (53%) have delays in at least two areas, and 27% have delays in three or more areas. Child’s mother as the primary caregiver, maternal education levels, and family asset values are all positively associated with the quality of parenting. Notably, low levels of parenting quality in rural China are linked to high rates of developmental delays.
Conclusions This study demonstrates that the level of parenting quality is significantly associated with early childhood developmental outcomes. Results highlight the need for raising investments in family care to improve early childhood development in different rural subpopulations in China.
In November 2025, the Department of War finally killed the last vestiges of Robert McNamara’s 1962 Planning, Programming, and Budgeting System (PPBS).
The DoW has pivoted from optimizing cost and performance to delivering advanced weapons at speed. Taking decades to deliver weapons is no longer an option. The DoW has joined the 21st century and adopted Lean Methodology.
Two organizations ought to be very concerned – China and the defense prime contractors.
