Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.
Featured Publications
Security Through Cooperation: Space, Nuclear Weapons, and U.S.-Russia Relations after the Cold War
Rose Gottemoeller uses lessons learned from U.S.-Russia relations during the George H. W. Bush and Clinton administrations to offer insights into how Russia today may be convinced to end its war against Ukraine and resume cooperation for the sake of global security.
Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder
A clear-eyed look from Michael McFaul at how the rise of autocratic China and Russia are compelling some to think that we have entered a new Cold War—and why we must reject that thinking in order to prevail.
The National College Entrance Examination shapes the future of millions of students in China each year, but Hongbin Li and Ruixue Jia illuminate how this test of all tests is also shaping education, labor markets, political legitimacy, and social values beyond the PRC.
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
January 8, 2026
This paper exploits the universe of credit- and debit-card transactions in China during 2013–2015 and provides the first nationwide analysis of the health care cost of PM2.5 for a developing country. We leverage spatial spillovers of PM2.5 from long-range transport to generate exogenous variation in local pollution, and we employ a flexible distributed lag model to capture semiparametrically the dynamic response of pollution exposure. We find significant impacts of PM2.5 on health care spending in both the short and medium terms. A 10 g/m decrease in PM2.5 would reduce annual health care spending by over $9.2 billion, about 1.5% of China’s annual health care expenditure.
Why do authoritarian regimes charge political opponents with nonpolitical crimes when they can levy charges directly related to opponents’ political activism? We argue that doing so disguises political repression and undermines the moral authority of opponents, minimizing backlash and mobilization. To test this argument, we conduct a survey experiment, which shows that disguised repression decreases perceptions of dissidents’ morality, decreases people’s willingness to engage in dissent on behalf of the dissident, and increases support for repression of the dissident. We then assess the external validity of the argument by analyzing millions of Chinese social media posts made before and after a large crackdown of vocal government critics in China in 2013. We find that individuals with larger online followings are more likely to be charged with nonpolitical crimes, and those charged with nonpolitical crimes are less likely to receive public sympathy and support.
China Agricultural Economic Review,
December 24, 2025
Purpose: Previous research has found an association between with early childhood development (ECD) and paternal beliefs and evidence suggests that paternal beliefs about their own role in child rearing might affect parental involvement. However, there has been no such empirical study in rural China. This study examines the interrelationships among paternal beliefs, parental involvement and ECD among rural Chinese children.
Design/methodology/approach: Data used for this study were collected from 6-to-42-month-old children and their primary caregivers in southwestern China in 2020. ECD was assessed by the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development-III. Paternal beliefs were assessed with the Role of the Father Questionnaire. The non-parametric regression methods were used to construct the factor scores of ECD. The ordinary least squares models, the mediation models and the bootstrapping approach were employed to investigate the interrelationships of paternal beliefs, parental involvement and ECD.
Findings: A large share of the sample children displayed delays in cognitive, language and social-emotional development. Paternal involvement significantly mediated the link between paternal beliefs and child cognitive and social-emotional development, while maternal involvement mediated the associations between paternal beliefs and child language and social-emotional development.
Originality/value: This study provides a unique contribution by utilizing unique data fathers' beliefs and their involvement in parenting to investigate the underlying mechanisms of how the role of fathers in parenting can lead to the improvement of early child developmental outcomes. This study also provides the first empirical evidence on the role of paternal beliefs in fostering human capital formation during the early stages of life in rural China. This study suggests that shifting paternal beliefs and improving parental involvement are effective pathways to benefit rural children in their early development.
SHP's Maya Rossin-Slater, PhD, an assistant professor of health policy, writes in this Boston Globe editorial that the Brown University mass shooting renewed headlines about the debate over gun laws and blame. But after the headlines fade, the students who lived through it will be left to cope with the aftermath.
The massive flow of migrants from rural to urban areas in China over the past decades has sparked concerns about the development of left-behind children. Drawing on a six-round, longitudinal cohort survey in rural China from 2013 to 2023 that follows children from 6 months to 11 years of age, we analyse the effects of two maternal migration patterns – persistent migration (migration without return) and return migration (migration followed by return) – on the cognitive development and nutrition of left-behind children from infancy to early adolescence. The results show that persistent maternal migration has adverse effects on the cognitive development and increased the BMI of left-behind children. In contrast, maternal migration had no significant effect on either cognitive development or any indicator of nutrition when the mother later returned. Persistent maternal migration had a strong, long-term negative effect on the cognitive development of left-behind children especially when mothers migrate within one or one and a half years after childbirth; maternal migration also had a short-term, negative effect on cognitive development when mothers migrate when the child is between 2 and 3 years old. These effects are likely driven by the lower levels of stimulating parenting practices and dietary diversity provided by the stand-in primary caregivers of left-behind children.
Humanities and Social Sciences Communications,
December 12, 2025
The connections between bullying and student well-being in rural areas are not well understood, particularly among younger, more vulnerable students. This study aims to explore the relationship between bullying experiences and the academic performance and mental health of primary and junior high school students in rural China. The sample comprised 1609 students from 30 schools (20 primary schools and 10 junior high schools) in Gansu province. A self-report questionnaire was used to collect data on students’ demographics, bullying experiences, mental health, and social support. Additionally, a 30-minute standardized math test was administered to assess academic performance. Results indicated that bullying was prevalent in rural settings, with 42.64% of students reporting being bullied and 12.74% experiencing it weekly. A significant correlation was found between bullying experiences and both lower academic performance and higher risk of mental health problems, such as depression and anxiety. These correlations became more pronounced with increased frequency of bullying incidents. We also found that female students and younger students who were bullied were more likely to report mental health issues. Furthermore, social support could diminish, but not entirely counteract, the adverse associations between bullying and mental health. These findings highlight the prevalence of bullying among rural students in this age group and demonstrate the associated negative outcomes for their mental health and academic performance. They also emphasize the need for targeted attention and the development of intervention programs, including enhanced school-based anti-bullying initiatives and improved social support systems.
Essay within "Designing Europe’s Future: AI as a Force of Good," published by the European Liberal Forum EUPF (ELF), edited by Francesco Cappelletti, Maartje Schulz, and Eloi Borgne.
China’s urbanization has created growing peri-urban communities, where children face challenges to early childhood development (ECD) despite proximity to developed urban areas. Little is known about how the environmental factors of ECD differ between rural migrants and new urban residents. To address this, we sampled 77 peri-urban households with 18–24-month-old Han Chinese children to examine the associations between early cognitive and language development, parental self-efficacy, stimulating parenting practices, and the home language environment measured with Language Environment Analysis (LENA). We find that rural migrants and new urban residents exhibited no significant difference in any child or household characteristic except parental residency. There was no significant difference in the family environment factors or early cognitive or language development, either. However, parental self-efficacy and stimulating parenting practices both predicted better cognitive and language development in rural migrant households, whereas only conversation turn counts predicted better language development in new urban resident households.
Background The quality of parenting can affect the developmental outcomes of young children. This study aims to investigate the associations between parenting quality and the early childhood development of children under age 3 across four major rural subpopulations in China.
Methods Using a stratified cluster sampling method, 760 children aged 6–36 months and their primary caregivers in four rural subpopulations from four provinces and a metropolis in China were surveyed. Child development was assessed by the Third Edition of the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development. Parenting quality was measured using the Family Care Indicators. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-tests, multivariable regression analysis, and linear regression analysis.
Results Across the four subpopulations, prevalences of delays of the sample children in four domains — cognition, language, social-emotional, and motor development are 52%, 45%, 52%, and 19%, respectively. The proportion of children with any type of delay is 82%, while over half (53%) have delays in at least two areas, and 27% have delays in three or more areas. Child’s mother as the primary caregiver, maternal education levels, and family asset values are all positively associated with the quality of parenting. Notably, low levels of parenting quality in rural China are linked to high rates of developmental delays.
Conclusions This study demonstrates that the level of parenting quality is significantly associated with early childhood developmental outcomes. Results highlight the need for raising investments in family care to improve early childhood development in different rural subpopulations in China.
