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The archival record makes clear that killing large numbers of civilians was the primary purpose of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima; destruction of military targets and war industry was a secondary goal and one that “legitimized” the intentional destruction of a city in the minds of some participants. The atomic bomb was detonated over the center of Hiroshima. More than 70,000 men, women, and children were killed immediately; the munitions factories on the periphery of the city were left largely unscathed. Such a nuclear attack would be illegal today. It would violate three major requirements of the law of armed conflict codified in Additional Protocol I of the Geneva Conventions: the principles of distinction, proportionality, and precaution. There could be great pressure to use nuclear weapons in future scenarios in which many American soldiers’ lives are at risk and there is no guarantee that a future US president would follow the law of armed conflict. That is why the United States needs senior military officers who fully understand the law and demand compliance and presidents who care about law and justice in war.

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Scott D. Sagan
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In 2013, the U.S. government announced that its nuclear war plans would be “consistent with the fundamental principles of the Law of Armed Conflict” and would “apply the principles of distinction and proportionality and seek to minimize collateral damage to civilian populations and civilian objects.” If properly applied, these legal principles can have a profound impact on U.S. nuclear doctrine. The prohibition against targeting civilians means that “countervalue” targeting and “minimum deterrence” strategies are illegal. The principle of distinction and the impermissibility of reprisal against civilians make it illegal for the United States, contrary to what is implied in the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, to intentionally target civilians even in reprisal for a strike against U.S. or allied civilians. The principle of proportionality permits some, but not all, potential U.S. counterforce nuclear attacks against military targets. The precautionary principle means that the United States must use conventional weapons or the lowest-yield nuclear weapons that would be effective against legitimate military targets. The law of armed conflict also restricts targeting of an enemy's leadership to officials in the military chain of command or directly participating in hostilities, meaning that broad targeting to destroy an enemy's entire political leadership is unlawful.

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Scott D. Sagan
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Does the UN Charter’s use of force regime remain relevant and effective in regulating or constraining the behavior of states? This chapter answers this question in part by examining the incidence of the transnational use of force since 1945. The chapter finds that the level of transnational use of force has not significantly increased, despite the emergence of new security threats. The chapter also investigates how states engage with the Charter’s use of force regime by examining their justifications for military action. The chapter finds that states remain committed to the existing UN Charter’s legal framework. The proportion of transnational instances of the use of force for which states provide formal justifications to the Security Council has remained relatively static since 1945. The changing patterns of justificatory discourse also reveal limited reliance by states on legally contested bases for using force, suggesting an absence of state claims for the adaptation of black letter law. The one notable exception reflects evolving recognition that the right of states to exercise self-defense against nonstate actors located in other states prevails over the territorial integrity of the state where force is used. The chapter also finds increasing reliance by states on extralegal justifications, which frequently complement contested legal arguments. The use of extralegal justifications in this way suggests that even when states use force in circumstances that are difficult to reconcile with the black letter law of the Charter, they do not directly challenge the applicability of the Charter’s use of force regime.

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The prohibition on the threat of force under international law is typically understood as barring threats to resort to war in an unlawful manner, i.e., in violation of jus ad bellum rules in the U.N. Charter. Much less attention has been paid to threats to use force in an unlawful manner, i.e., in violation of jus in bello international humanitarian law (IHL) rules.

Neither Article 2(4) of the U.N. Charter nor international law generally prohibits threats to use force in contravention of IHL. But for parties to the 1949 Geneva Conventions or 1977 Additional Protocol I, threatening to use force in blatant or manifest violation of IHL would violate the obligation under Common Article 1 to ensure respect for those treaties.

This has important implications for nuclear deterrence, as a review of U.S. nuclear targeting policy reveals. For parties to Additional Protocol I, threats contemplating blatant or manifest violations of the rules of distinction, proportionality, and precaution would breach the duty to ensure respect for the Protocol.

Even where threats to use force in violation of international law would not be unlawful, there are sound policy reasons not to threaten to use force in violation of IHL. Such threats offer doubtful security benefits and could have the collateral effect of weakening compliance with IHL during the course of actual armed conflicts.

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This Article explicates the under-conceptualized jus ad bellum proportionality principle in international law, and then assesses Israel’s compliance with proportionality during its use of force against Hamas in Gaza following the October 7, 2023, attacks. Using our proposed three-step analytical approach that we argue should guide jus ad bellum proportionality assessments, this Article finds, first, that Israel had a right of self-defense, and that Israel’s strategic objective of removing Hamas from political power and eliminating its military capabilities fell within the legitimate boundaries of self-defense. Second, however, this Article finds that Israel’s strategic objective required means that would foreseeably cause excessive damage and harm in this context, due to circumstances in Gaza that were wellknown to Israeli officials. Israel accordingly violated proportionality in pursuing this strategic objective. Third, satellite radar imagery analyses demonstrate that Israeli operations in fact caused extensive damage during the first year of the war that exceeded what was required for Israel’s self-defense, in violation of the proportionality principle. This Article concludes by discussing possible pathways for recourse under international law, and highlights the need for future rigorous analyses of proportionality in ongoing and prospective uses of force that can guide State behavior and promote compliance with international law.

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This Article empirically investigates the connection between harmful narratives on social media and violent acts perpetrated against persons protected under international humanitarian law (IHL) during armed conflict, and then examines the legal implications of such a relationship. First, examining comprehensive datasets from two inter-state armed conflicts (Russia-Ukraine and Armenia-Azerbaijan) as case studies, this Article documents patterns in Telegram data indicating that more violent acts are preceded by increases in harmful narratives than decreases in such content. This suggests that harmful narratives on social media platforms may plausibly contribute to the incidence of real-world violence committed against protected persons during armed conflict. Assuming such a relationship exists, this Article then identifies the legal implications under three relevant bodies of law, arguing that creators and disseminators of such narratives may be in violation of international or domestic law because such content can foreseeably lead to violence. The Article concludes with several policy recommendations for stakeholders, including belligerents, regulating states, social media companies, and humanitarian actors, mapping out a series of actionable steps that could reduce harm against protected persons in conflict settings. Scholars and policymakers must do more to minimize the potential for harm that social media content presents in armed conflict settings.

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Introduction and Contribution


Democratic “consolidation,” whereby democracy is the “only game in town,” depends on the functioning of a host of political institutions. This includes free and fair elections, respect for individual rights, and an independent judiciary. Accordingly, many countries that underwent transitions to democracy in the 1990s worked to build autonomous and impartial judicial institutions. Reformers hoped that judges with the capacity to review executive and legislative action and effectively enforce their decisions would serve as bulwarks against authoritarian reversion. 

Yet the recent wave of democratic backsliding and autocratization has demonstrated the fragility of judicial institutions. In places as diverse as Hungary, Poland, Venezuela, and Turkey, elected authoritarian leaders have sought to weaken or destroy independent judiciaries, even co-opting them to further their anti-democratic agendas. Have judges become unable to counter autocrats? Answering this question is critical for the global pro-democracy movement.

In “How Latin America's Judges are Defending Democracy,” Diego A. Zambrano, Ludmilla Martins da Silva, Rolando Garcia Miron, and Santiago P. Rodríguez show how judges in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico have made a series of innovative and forceful anti-authoritarian rulings. These outcomes are surprising in light of parallel judicial failures in Latin America and other backsliding democracies. The authors discuss six factors that help explain these outcomes: three stem from the judiciary's internal politics, and three connect to broader changes in Latin American society. Although no single factor explains all three cases, this should not detract from the broader lesson that judiciaries can serve as important pro-democracy actors. 

Three Cases of Judges Defending Democracy


Brazil: 

After the military junta fell in 1985, Brazil built strong judicial institutions, which largely remained on the political sidelines until the rise of Jair Bolsonaro in 2018. During his campaign, Bolsonaro expressed his intent to manipulate the Supreme Court’s composition, suggested he would not comply with its decisions, and marched in favor of a military takeover. Meanwhile, his supporters placed explosives near the homes of Supreme Court justices and made threats against them and their families. These developments — threatening Brazilian democracy, the separation of powers, and the personal safety of judges — put significant strain on the judiciary. 

In response, the Supreme Court took the unprecedented step of ruling that it could unilaterally open investigations into government officials. It did so in cases involving those who spread false information and made defamatory accusations against judges. During COVID-19, Bolsonaro attempted to centralize the authority to impose lockdowns, which the Supreme Court rejected as violating the constitutional separation of powers.

Brazilian democracy faced its most existential threat during and after the 2022 elections. In response to Bolsonaro and his supporters promoting conspiracy theories about election fraud, the Supreme Court issued press releases attesting to the elections’ democratic integrity. And after the infamous Brazilian coup plot, the Court investigated Bolsonaro and disqualified him from running for office.

Colombia:

Colombia’s judiciary has received global recognition for its independence, defenses of human rights, and broad domestic legitimacy. It has decriminalized abortion and euthanasia while imposing limits on executive power. In 2010, it rejected President Álvaro Uribe’s unconstitutional attempt to run for a third term in office despite Uribe’s widespread support among the public and Colombian elite. And in 2023, it upheld its power to suspend evidently unconstitutional acts or those posing a “clear and present danger” to the constitutional order. These rulings demonstrate how Colombian judges have been willing to defend constitutional democracy, even when doing so requires confronting powerful executives.

Mexico:

Much like in Brazil under Bolsonaro, Mexico’s judiciary faced a critical test with the rise of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) in 2018. AMLO was extremely popular, winning over 50% of the vote, while his Morena party took control of Congress. Perceiving the Supreme Court as an impediment to his populist agenda, AMLO used daily press conferences to denounce the justices as overpaid, corrupt elites. 

Initially, Supreme Court president Arturo Zaldívar was receptive to AMLO’s accusations, persuading his colleagues to accept salary and budget reductions. However, Zaldívar’s successor, Norma Piña, led a much more oppositional court. One of AMLO’s signature initiatives was to overhaul and defund the independent electoral body — the National Electoral Institute (INE) — seen as one of Mexican democracy’s most important institutions. This involved reducing INE’s staff by 85%, which would have placed free and fair elections in serious jeopardy. When the INE case reached the Supreme Court, however, the justices sided against AMLO. 

Why Have Judges Defended Democracy?


These bold and surprising cases of judicial intervention in defense of democracy call for an explanation. Accordingly, the authors consider two sets of factors, one internal and one external to the judiciary. One external factor is connected to the fact that judiciaries often side with public opinion, which has increasingly opposed authoritarian maneuvers by executives. For example, although AMLO was popular, his anti-democratic electoral reforms were not, prompting mass protests in 2023. However, this factor has a harder time explaining judicial behavior in Colombia; as mentioned, President Uribe’s proposed third term received broad public support.

Perhaps the more compelling factors are internal to Latin American judiciaries. These include increasingly prevalent rules and norms favoring tenure protections. Another important factor involves the growing number of judicial appointees who are elite lawyers, such as those from academia or private practice. Because they are unaffiliated with traditional networks of political power, these judges have arguably been more willing to act against autocrats’ wishes. 

Finally, several cases may be explained by the facts that (a) judges, like other political actors, seek to preserve their positions and (b) attacks on democratic institutions threaten those positions. In Mexico, for example, AMLO’s assault on the INE, by threatening free and fair elections, would have upset the balance of power between the executive and judiciary. A similar case could be made in Brazil, where judges sought to preserve not only their autonomy but their physical safety. No single factor can explain every judicial ruling. Together, however, they help shed light on why Latin American judiciaries have stood up to powerful and popular elected autocrats.

*Brief prepared by Adam Fefer

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Katrin Bolovtsova
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CDDRL Research-in-Brief [4-minute read]

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Sonia is an Editorial Assistant at the Journal of Democracy, in partnership with the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law. She is an undergraduate in the Class of 2029, majoring in Political Science with a minor in Economics. Her academic interests focus on democracy, technology, and U.S. elections. She has worked at the California State Assembly, the Immigration Institute of the Bay Area, and Legora, a legal AI company.

Editorial Assistant, Journal of Democracy, Fall 2026
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This fall, Stanford Continuing Studies will present its third annual Reimagining Democracy course, a six-part speaker series produced with the Office of Community Engagement, the Stanford Democracy Hub, and the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL). The free public series runs weekly starting October 7 and is hosted by Debra Satz, Vernon R. and Lysbeth Warren Anderson Dean of the School of Humanities and Sciences, and CDDRL's Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI).

The series features Stanford scholars who help us understand democracy: how America’s founding 250 years ago shapes public life today, and where we go from here in reimagining and strengthening democratic values and governance, at home and around the world. This year’s series features constitutional, electoral, social science, and humanities experts with conversations connecting to the US November midterm elections and beyond.


The series draws heavily on CDDRL's bench of democracy scholars. Alberto Díaz-Cayeros, Senior Fellow at FSI and Co-Director of CDDRL's Democracy Action Lab, joins Anna Grzymala-Busse, Senior Fellow at FSI, for the October 14 conversation on global democracy and elections, drawing on their comparative work on democratic decline and resilience. Didi Kuo, Center Fellow at FSI and program manager of CDDRL's Program on American Democracy in Comparative Perspective, joins the October 21 session on money in politics, bringing her research on political parties and institutional reform. Nate Persily, James B. McClatchy Professor of Law and Senior Fellow at FSI, brings his expertise in election law to the October 28 session on voting rights and electoral reform. Other sessions bring in Stanford colleagues working across law, history, and public service.

All sessions will be recorded, and videos will be available afterward for those unable to attend live.

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Weekly conversations hosted by Larry Diamond and Debra Satz will explore America's founding principles and their relevance to the 2026 midterms.

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