Colombia at a Crossroads: Ballots, Bullets, and the Future of Democracy
Colombians will vote for a new president on May 31, 2026, with a runoff scheduled for June 21 if no candidate secures more than 50 percent of the vote. These elections take place at a critical juncture for the country’s security strategy, institutional trajectory, and democratic resilience. While concerns about violence and public security remain central to voter decision-making, the electoral debate also encompasses broader, equally critical issues, including economic development, poverty reduction, institutional strength, victims' rights, and the stability and effectiveness of the presidency.
Democracy at the Ballot Box: The 2026 Electoral Cycle in Latin America is a new series, hosted by The Democracy Action Lab (DAL) at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and DAL's Academic Consortium. This panel will examine the stakes of the 2026 election and the alternatives before voters. It will analyze the main dynamics shaping the electoral cycle, including the leading candidates, the coalitions and groups competing for power, and the broader political context in which the contest is unfolding. The discussion will also assess the likely implications of competing policy agendas, evaluate the principal risks facing the electoral process, identify the sources of democratic resilience that may help sustain it, and draw lessons for other Latin American countries confronting similar challenges.
SPEAKERS
- María Ignacia Curiel - Research Scholar & Research Manager, Democracy Action Lab (DAL)
- Oliver Kaplan - CDDRL Visiting Scholar & Associate Professor, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver
- Javier Mejía - Lecturer, Stanford University's Department of Political Science, Stanford Civics Initiative, and Affiliated Faculty of Stanford's Center for Latin American Studies (CLAS) & Stanford's Center for Poverty and Inequality
- Michael Weintraub - Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and Global Studies at Universidad de los Andes (Bogotá, Colombia), Director of the Center for the Study of Security and Drugs (CESED) in the Department of Economics, Member of The Democracy Action Lab's Academic Consortium
MODERATOR
Alberto Díaz-Cayeros — Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Professor, by courtesy, of Political Science, and Co-Director of DAL
Webinar open to the public via Zoom, if prompted for a password, use: 123456
María Ignacia Curiel
Encina Hall, Suite 052
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
María Ignacia Curiel is a Research Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law and Research Affiliate of the Poverty, Violence and Governance Lab at Stanford University. Curiel is an empirical political scientist using experimental, observational, and qualitative data to study questions of violence and democratic participation, peacebuilding, and representation.
Her research primarily explores political solutions to violent conflict and the electoral participation of parties with violent origins. This work includes an in-depth empirical study of Comunes, the Colombian political party formed by the former FARC guerrilla, as well as a broader analysis of rebel party behaviors across different contexts. More recently, her research has focused on democratic mobilization and the political representation of groups affected by violence in Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela.
Curiel's work has been supported by the Folke Bernadotte Academy, the Institute for Humane Studies, and the APSA Centennial Center and is published in the Journal of Politics. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and dual B.A. degrees in Economics and Political Science from New York University.
Oliver Kaplan
Encina Hall, C151
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Oliver Kaplan is an Associate Professor at the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver. He is the author of the book, Resisting War: How Communities Protect Themselves (Cambridge University Press, 2017), which examines how civilian communities organize to protect themselves from wartime violence. He is a co-editor and contributor to the book, Speaking Science to Power: Responsible Researchers and Policymaking (Oxford University Press, 2024). Kaplan has also published articles on the conflict-related effects of land reforms and ex-combatant reintegration and recidivism. As part of his research, Kaplan has conducted fieldwork in Colombia and the Philippines.
Kaplan was a Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace and previously a postdoctoral Research Associate at Princeton University and at Stanford University. His research has been funded by the Carnegie Corporation of New York, the International Committee of the Red Cross, the Smith Richardson Foundation, and other grants. His work has been published in The Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Peace Research, Conflict Management and Peace Science, Stability, The New York Times, Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, CNN, and National Interest.
At the University of Denver, Kaplan is Director of the Korbel Asylum Project (KAP). He has taught M.A.-level courses on Human Rights and Foreign Policy, Peacebuilding in Civil Wars, Civilian Protection, and Human Rights Research Methods, and PhD-level courses on Social Science Research Methods. Kaplan received his Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University and completed his B.A. at UC San Diego.