Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.
Featured Publications
Security Through Cooperation: Space, Nuclear Weapons, and U.S.-Russia Relations after the Cold War
Rose Gottemoeller uses lessons learned from U.S.-Russia relations during the George H. W. Bush and Clinton administrations to offer insights into how Russia today may be convinced to end its war against Ukraine and resume cooperation for the sake of global security.
Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder
A clear-eyed look from Michael McFaul at how the rise of autocratic China and Russia are compelling some to think that we have entered a new Cold War—and why we must reject that thinking in order to prevail.
The National College Entrance Examination shapes the future of millions of students in China each year, but Hongbin Li and Ruixue Jia illuminate how this test of all tests is also shaping education, labor markets, political legitimacy, and social values beyond the PRC.
Is government guiding the invisible hand at the top of the labor market? We use new administrative data to measure physicians' earnings and estimate the influence of healthcare policies on these earnings, physicians' labor supply, and allocation of talent. Combining the administrative registry of U.S. physicians with tax data, Medicare billing records, and survey responses, we find that physicians' annual earnings average $350,000 and comprise 8.6% of national healthcare spending. The age-earnings profile is steep; business income comprises one quarter of earnings and is systematically underreported in survey data. There are major differences in earnings across specialties, regions, and firm sizes, with an unusual geographic pattern compared with other workers. We show that health policy has a major impact on the margin: 25% of physician fee revenue driven by Medicare reimbursements accrues to physicians personally. Physicians earn 6% of public money spent on insurance expansions. We find that these policies in turn affect the type and quantity of medical care physicians supply in the short run; retirement timing in the medium run; and earnings affect specialty choice in the long run.
A collaboration between the Stanford Internet Observatory and Thorn looks at the risks of sexual abuse material produced using machine learning image generators.
Report prepared by the Deliberative Democracy Lab at Stanford University, housed within the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
One out of every three children under the age of 5 in developing countries lives in an environment that impedes human capital development. Children growing up in resource-poor settings are at an increased risk of early developmental delay due to risk factors such as being in environments that lack cognitive stimulation, nutrition, or care in the home environment. Given that early developmental deficits are difficult to reverse later in life, such deficits are key drivers of inequality and impediments for intergenerational mobility. This policy brief reviews this problem and then proposes a design of cost-effective, scalable, and sustainable parental training programs (focusing on psychosocial stimulation for young children) as a global strategy to improve the developmental opportunities of children before they reach the age of 5 in developing countries, to remediate social inequalities, and to boost long-term economic development. We present concrete policy recommendations for the implementation of such programs at scale.
One-time CKD screening at age 55 years had an ICER of $86 300 per QALY gained by increasing costs from $249 800 to $259 000 and increasing QALYs from 12.61 to 12.72; this was accompanied by a decrease in the incidence of kidney failure requiring dialysis or kidney transplant of 0.29 percentage points and an increase in life expectancy from 17.29 to 17.45 years. Other options were also cost-effective. During ages 35 to 75 years, screening once prevented dialysis or transplant in 398 000 people and screening every 10 years until age 75 years cost less than $100 000 per QALY gained.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS),
June 12, 2023
Significance One fundamental issue in economic, psychological, and social sciences is whether and how much income truly brings happiness. This paper draws on twins data to examine whether income indeed affects happiness and estimates the size of such an effect. We control for unobserved genetic factors that may impact both income and happiness using identical twins, address measurement error bias, and conduct a series of robustness checks. Income has a much larger effect than previous estimates: doubling income boosts the four-scale happiness value by 0.26 scales or 0.37 SDs. Heterogeneity analyses suggest that income matters most for males and the middle-aged. Our findings emphasize the importance of income maintenance for individuals’ well-being.
Abstract We estimate the causal effect of income on happiness using a unique dataset of Chinese twins. This allows us to address omitted variable bias and measurement errors. Our findings show that individual income has a large positive effect on happiness, with a doubling of income resulting in an increase of 0.26 scales or 0.37 SDs in the four-scale happiness measure. We also find that income matters most for males and the middle-aged. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for various biases when studying the relationship between socioeconomic status and subjective well-being.
On June 6th 2023, Steven C. Hazy lecturer Rose Gottemoeller spoke at a roundtable organized by the National Nuclear Security Administration and the National Defense University. Find her full speech below.
The Spring 2023 issue of Dædalus takes a transdisciplinary approach to understanding the dilemmas facing humanitarian health actors, and to finding room for innovation in humanitarian health delivery. Recognizing that shared compassion cannot be proscribed but must be felt, the issue also draws on the power of the arts, and features paintings, poetry, photography, fiction, and creative nonfiction by artists whose lives have been shaped by violent conflict and displacement.
This volume, edited by Marietje Schaake and Francis Fukuyama provides perspectives on how digital technologies are used, perceived, and affect behavior in a range of countries outside of North America and Europe. This volume should be seen as a modest first effort to gather comparative data on digital technology issues affecting ECs that will inform government policy, the platforms, and civil society around the world.
Preterm birth (PTB) is the leading cause of death in children under five, yet comprehensive studies are hindered by its multiple complex etiologies. Epidemiological associations between PTB and maternal characteristics have been previously described. This work used multiomic profiling and multivariate modeling to investigate the biological signatures of these characteristics. Maternal covariates were collected during pregnancy from 13,841 pregnant women across five sites. Plasma samples from 231 participants were analyzed to generate proteomic, metabolomic, and lipidomic datasets. Machine learning models showed robust performance for the prediction of PTB (AUROC = 0.70), time-to-delivery (r = 0.65), maternal age (r = 0.59), gravidity (r = 0.56), and BMI (r = 0.81). Time-to-delivery biological correlates included fetal-associated proteins (e.g., ALPP, AFP, and PGF) and immune proteins (e.g., PD-L1, CCL28, and LIFR). Maternal age negatively correlated with collagen COL9A1, gravidity with endothelial NOS and inflammatory chemokine CXCL13, and BMI with leptin and structural protein FABP4. These results provide an integrated view of epidemiological factors associated with PTB and identify biological signatures of clinical covariates affecting this disease.
ChatGPT has exploded into the national consciousness. The potential for large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT, Bard, and many others to support or replace humans in a range of areas is now clear—and medical decisions are no exception. This has sharpened a perennial medicolegal question: How can physicians incorporate promising new technologies into their practice without increasing liability risk?
This book explores the social and psychological factors behind how ISIS was able to rise in Iraq, control most of it, and why most of that population eventually turned on it.
Using open-source intelligence - including photographs from the regiment's New Year's party - Ukranian hacktivists were able to ascertain the identity of the Russian pilots.
Educational Research for Policy and Practice,
May 3, 2023
This study utilizes semi-structured interviews to explore the status quo of teacher training of rural and urban public primary school teachers in Henan Province China. Our findings showed that both rural and urban teachers had very limited training opportunities available to them. Most of the participants did not find the current training opportunities useful in improving their teaching practices. Both rural and urban teachers desired training in pedagogy, educational psychology, and curriculum. Rural teachers particularly expressed the need for training in ICT and classroom management skills. Observing education experts’ demonstration classes is the most preferred training format. Policy implications are discussed.
Unlike previous such strategies, the new National Cyber Strategy rebalances responsibility to generate a new social contract for a resilient national cybersecurity to counter threats from malicious nations and emerging technology.
