Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.
Featured Publications
Security Through Cooperation: Space, Nuclear Weapons, and U.S.-Russia Relations after the Cold War
Rose Gottemoeller uses lessons learned from U.S.-Russia relations during the George H. W. Bush and Clinton administrations to offer insights into how Russia today may be convinced to end its war against Ukraine and resume cooperation for the sake of global security.
Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder
A clear-eyed look from Michael McFaul at how the rise of autocratic China and Russia are compelling some to think that we have entered a new Cold War—and why we must reject that thinking in order to prevail.
The National College Entrance Examination shapes the future of millions of students in China each year, but Hongbin Li and Ruixue Jia illuminate how this test of all tests is also shaping education, labor markets, political legitimacy, and social values beyond the PRC.
Drawing on quantitative and qualitative data collected in 2024 and 2025 in a relatively well-off rural area of China, this study examines the mental health of primary caregivers of young children and its correlates. The quantitative data show high prevalence of cognitive (40%), language (42%), and motor (20%) developmental delays among the children. Caregiver mental health problems may be one possible contributing factor given that approximately 17% of caregivers exhibit at least one mental health issue (i.e. stress, anxiety, or depression). The qualitative analysis identifies several risk factors of caregiver mental health problems: limited awareness of mental health concepts; heavy burden of caregiving; insufficient public services; and a lack of awareness of caregiver mental health’s impact on child development.
The agreement between Washington and Riyadh could create a regional nuclear arms race, while forgoing the only advantage Israel wanted to gain from it: Saudi normalization
Standard economic theory predicts that productivity growth benefits workers through higher wages or better conditions in competitive labor markets. Despite significant productivity gains, the authors find no improvement in work conditions or coercive practices.
National Bureau of Economic Research,
June 13, 2026
We study the optimal design of trade and industrial policy when governments pursue environmental objectives alongside traditional national welfare. Motivated by the global transition to electric vehicles (EVs) and growing concerns about competitiveness, resilience, and the environment, we develop a framework in which policymakers choose tariffs and domestic production subsidies to maximize national welfare, defined as the sum of consumer surplus, domestic profits, environmental benefits, and tariff revenue net of subsidies. We combine a theoretical model of differentiated-product oligopoly with a structural demand model estimated using vehicle-level data from 13 countries during 2004-2023 that together account for the vast majority of global EV sales. Our central finding is that the optimal policy combines a moderate tariff on imported EVs with a subsidy to domestic EV production financed through tariff revenue. This policy substantially outperforms both outright protectionism and laissez-faire. Relative to current policies, it preserves consumer access to affordable EVs, accelerates fleet electrification, supports domestic producers, and remains budget-neutral. For the United States, the optimal policy more than doubles EV market share, generates over $45 billion in annual welfare gains, and avoids approximately 95 million tons of lifetime CO2 emissions. A key mechanism underlying these results is the pass-through of tariffs and subsidies to prices, which depends critically on demand curvature, product substitution, and market structure. More broadly, our results suggest that effective industrial policy requires careful attention to market structure and country-specific conditions, balancing consumer, producer, fiscal, and environmental objectives rather than adhering to ideological prescriptions.
