Publications

fsi books

Publications

Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.

Featured Publications

Everything Counts: Building a Control Regime for Nonstrategic Nuclear Warheads in Europe

Building a Control Regime for Nonstrategic Nuclear Warheads in Europe

A new report led by Rose Gottemoeller on non-strategic nuclear warhead policies in Europe, particulary in light of Russia's changing status in the global nuclear community.
3D mockup cover of APARC's volume 'South Korea's Democracy in Crisis'

South Korea’s Democracy in Crisis

A close look at what is driving illiberalism and democratic delcine in today’s Korea, including political polarization, politicization of institutions, societal inequality, education, and social media.
System Error book cover and authors

System Error: Where Big Tech Went Wrong and How We Can Reboot

A forward-thinking manifesto which reveals how big tech’s obsession with optimization and efficiency has sacrificed fundamental human values.

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Journal Articles

How Voters Respond to Presidential Assaults on Checks and Balances: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in Turkey

Aytuğ Şaşmaz , Alper H. Yagci, Daniel Ziblatt
Comparative Political Studies, 2022 January 13, 2022

Why do voters support executive aggrandizement?

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Journal Articles

Bullying Victims in Rural Primary Schools: Prevalence, Correlates, and Consequences

Huan Wang, Jingjing Tang, Sarah-Eve Dill, Jiusi Xiao, Matthew Boswell, Claire Cousineau, Scott Rozelle
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2022 January 11, 2022

School bullying is a widely recognized problem in developed countries, but remains under-investigated in developing countries, especially in remote rural areas. In this paper, we examine the prevalence, correlates, and consequences of bullying victimization and its relation to educational performance and creative attitudes. Using data from 10,528 students across 120 primary schools in rural China, we find an alarmingly high prevalence of bullying victimization and that several individual, family, and school characteristics are correlated with bullying victimization. Analyses indicate students who are bullied frequently score lower in Chinese, reading, and math tests and creative attitudes. Taken together, the results demonstrate a need for further research and policy interventions to reduce bullying in schools.

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Journal Articles

In-House Vs. Outsourced Trolls: How Digital Mercenaries Shape State Influence Strategies

Renee DiResta, Shelby Grossman, Alexandra Siegel
Political Communication, 2021 December 19, 2021
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Journal Articles

2007 Iran Nuclear NIE: More of the Story

Thomas Fingar
Intelligence and National Security, 2021 December 15, 2021
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Book Chapters

Nuclear Deterrence and the US-China Strategic Relationship

Oriana Skylar Mastro
2021 December 14, 2021

From Alliances, Nuclear Weapons and Escalation: Managing Deterrence in the 21st Century, edited by Stephan Frühling and Andrew O’Neil, published 2021 by ANU Press, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.

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Journal Articles

Evaluating maize yield response to fertilizer and soil in Mexico using ground and satellite approaches

Jake Campolo, David Lobell
Field Crops Research, 2021 December 13, 2021
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Journal Articles

Towards a unified approach to research on democratic backsliding

Haemin Jee, Hans Lueders, Rachel Myrick
Democratization, 2021 December 9, 2021

A growing literature examines democratic backsliding, but there is little consensus on when, where, and why it occurs.

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Case Studies

Maduro’s Menagerie: Twitter Client Usage in a Venezuelan Twitter Operation (TAKEDOWN)

Elena Cryst, Ronald E Robertson, Noah Schechter, David Thiel
Stanford Internet Observatory, 2021 December 2, 2021
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Case Studies

In Bed with Embeds: How a Network Tied to IRA Operations Created Fake “Man on the Street” Content Embedded in News Articles (TAKEDOWN)

Renee DiResta, Shelby Grossman, Samantha Bradshaw, Karen Nershi, Khadeja Ramali, Rajeev Sharma
Stanford Internet Observatory, 2021 December 2, 2021
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Case Studies

The New Copyright Trolls: How a Twitter Network Used Copyright Complaints to Harass Tanzanian Activists (TAKEDOWN)

Shelby Grossman, Christopher Giles, Cynthia N. M., R. Miles McCain, Blair Read
Stanford Internet Observatory, 2021 December 2, 2021
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Case Studies

Seeing Double: Twitter Removes Network of Duplicate Accounts Cheerleading Mexican Political Allies (TAKEDOWN)

Elena Cryst, David Thiel, Sean Gallagher
Stanford Internet Observatory, 2021 December 2, 2021
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Case Studies

One Topic, Two Networks: Evaluating Two Chinese Influence Operations on Twitter Related to Xinjiang (TAKEDOWN)

Renee DiResta, Josh A. Goldstein, Carly Miller, Harvey Wang, SY, MD
Stanford Internet Observatory, 2021 December 2, 2021
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Journal Articles

Community policing does not build citizen trust in police or reduce crime in the Global South

Graeme Blair, Jeremy M. Weinstein, Fotini Christia
Science, 2021 December 1, 2021

Is it possible to reduce crime without exacerbating adversarial relationships between police and citizens? Community policing is a celebrated reform with that aim, which is now adopted on six continents. However, the evidence base is limited, studying reform components in isolation in a limited set of countries, and remaining largely silent on citizen-police trust. We designed six field experiments with Global South police agencies to study locally designed models of community policing using coordinated measures of crime and the attitudes and behaviors of citizens and police. In a preregistered meta-analysis, we found that these interventions led to mixed implementation, largely failed to improve citizen-police relations, and did not reduce crime. Societies may need to implement structural changes first for incremental police reforms such as community policing to succeed.

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Journal Articles

When no bad deed goes punished: Relational contracting in Ghana and the UK

Elwyn Davies, Marcel Fafchamps
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2021 November 30, 2021
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Journal Articles

Examining the Relation between Caregiver Mental Health and Student Outcomes in Rural China

Huan Wang, Claire Cousineau, Yuwei Adeline Hu, Grace Hu, Sunny Qi, Adrian Sun, Helen Wu, Scott Rozelle, Manpreet Singh
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2021 November 30, 2021

Research continues to highlight the central relationship between caregivers’ mental health and their children’s development. This study examined the relation between primary caregivers’ mental health and school-aged children’s outcomes, including student mental health, resilience, and academic performance, in rural China. Using cross-sectional data from economically poor areas in the Gansu province, 2989 students (mean age = 11.51, 53.33% male, 46.67% female) and their primary caregivers (74.2% female) completed the 21-item, self-report Depression Anxiety Stress Scale. Students also completed the 25-item Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale and a standardized math test. The results indicated a high prevalence of caregiver depression (31%), stress (39%), and anxiety (24%). Characteristics that were significantly correlated with caregiver mental health issues included being a grandparent, having a low socioeconomic status and low education level, and living in a household with at least one migrant worker. Apart from caregiver stress and student resilience, caregiver mental health issues were negatively correlated with all student outcomes, including student mental health, resilience, and academic performance. Although additional empirical research is needed to investigate the associations between caregiver mental health and student outcomes, our results suggest that rural communities could benefit greatly from programs focused on improving the mental health of caregivers and this, in turn, may have a positive impact on student outcomes.

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Case Studies

Water for the Poor: Dhaka’s Water Utilities Turnaround Challenge

Anna Nguyen Thuy An
2021 November 22, 2021

Case study for the Stanford Leadership Academy for Development in partnership with Asia Development Bank.

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Books

Perceptions of Medieval Manuscripts

Elaine Treharne
2021 November 21, 2021

The Phenomenal Book

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Working Papers

Markets under Siege: How Differences in Political Beliefs can move Financial Markets

Saumitra Jha, Peter Koudijs
2021 November 18, 2021

Can differences in beliefs about politics, particularly the benefits of war and peace, move markets? During the Siege of Paris by the Prussian army (1870-71) and its aftermath, we document that the price of the French 3% sovereign bond (rente) differed persistently between the Bourse in Paris and elsewhere, despite being one of the most widely held and actively traded financial assets in continental Europe. Further, these differences were large, reaching the equivalent of almost 1% of French GDP in overall value. We show these differences manifested themselves during the period of limited arbitrage induced by the Siege and persisted until the terms of peace were revealed. As long as French military resistance continued, the rente price was higher in Paris than the outside markets, but when the parties ceased fire and started negotiating peace terms this pattern was reversed. Further, while the price responded more to war events in Paris, the price responded more to peace events elsewhere. These specific patterns are difficult to reconcile with other potential mechanisms, including differential information sets, need for liquidity, or relative market thickness. Instead, we argue, these results are consistent with prices reflecting the updating of different prevailing political beliefs that existed in Paris and elsewhere about the benefits of war and peace.

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Journal Articles

Postnatal Mental Health, Hand Washing Practices, and Infant Illness in Rural China

Qi Jiang, Nourya Cohen, Mika Ohtori, Jie Gao, Qingzhi Wang, Evelyn Zhang, Sabrina Zhu, Hannah Johnstone, Yian Guo, Sarah-Eve Dill, Huan Zhou, Scott Rozelle
Frontiers in Global Women's Health, 2021 November 18, 2021

Background: Maternal mental health problems play an important role in infant well-being. Although western countries have extensively studied the associations between maternal mental disorders, hygiene practices and infant health, little is known in developing settings. This study investigates the correlations between postnatal mental health problems, hand washing practices and infant illness in rural western China. Methods: A total of 720 mothers of infants aged 0–6 months from four poor counties in rural western China were included in the survey. Mental health symptoms were assessed using the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale-21 (DASS-21). Questions about infant illness and hand washing practices followed evaluative surveys from prior studies. Adjusted ordinary least squares regressions were used to examine correlations between postnatal mental health (depression, anxiety, and stress) symptoms, hand washing practices, and infant illness outcomes. Results: Maternal depression, anxiety and stress symptoms were significantly associated with reduced hand washing overall and less frequent hand washing after cleaning the infant's bottom. Mental health symptoms were also associated with a higher probability of infants showing two or more illness symptoms and visiting a doctor for illness symptoms. Individual hand washing practices were not significantly associated with infant illness; however, a composite measure of hand washing practices was significantly associated with reduced probability of infant illness. Conclusion: Postnatal mental health problems are prevalent in rural China and significantly associated with infant illness. Policy makers and practitioners should investigate possible interventions to improve maternal and infant well-being.

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Books

The Courteous Power

John D. Ciorciari, Kiyoteru Tsutsui
2021 November 8, 2021

Japan and Southeast Asia in the Indo-Pacific Era

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Journal Articles

Urban-Rural Health Insurance Integration in China

Qin Zhou, Qing He, Karen Eggleston, Gordon G. Liu
Applied Economics, 2021 November 8, 2021

Impact on Health Care Utilization, Financial Risk Protection, and Health Status

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Working Papers

The Impact of Community Masking on COVID-19: A Cluster-Randomized Trial in Bangladesh

Stephen P. Luby, et al
Innovations for Poverty Action, 2021 November 8, 2021

A randomized trial of community-level mask promotion in rural Bangladesh during COVID-19 shows that the intervention increased mask-use and reduced symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections.

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