Publications

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Publications

Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.

Featured Publications

Struggles for Political Change in the Arab World, edited by Lisa Blaydes, Amr Hamzawy, and Hesham Sallam

Struggles for Political Change in the Arab World

This volume edited by Lisa Blaydes, Amr Hamzawy, and Hesham Sallam explains how politicians, opposition movements, and external actors across the region have adapted in the ten years since the Arab Spring.
Liberalism and Its Discontents by Francis Fukuyama

Liberalism and Its Discontents

It's no secret that liberalism hasn't always lived up to its own ideals. But in this short, clear account, Francis Fukuyama offers an essential defense of a revitalized liberalism for the twenty-first century.
Everything Counts: Building a Control Regime for Nonstrategic Nuclear Warheads in Europe

Building a Control Regime for Nonstrategic Nuclear Warheads in Europe

A new report led by Rose Gottemoeller on non-strategic nuclear warhead policies in Europe, particulary in light of Russia's changing status in the global nuclear community.

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Working Papers

Governing artificial intelligence in the public interest

Marietje Schaake, Séb Krier, Mariana Mazzucato, Josh Entsminger
2022 July 27, 2022
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Testimonies

Testimony by Renée DiResta to the Committee on House Administration Subcommittee on Elections

Renee DiResta
2022 July 27, 2022

“A Growing Threat: Foreign And Domestic Sources Of Disinformation”

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Policy Briefs

Policy Roundup: July 2022

Clifton B. Parker
2022 July 26, 2022

Key policy takeaways from Rose Gottemoeller on NATO’s new strategic concept, Francis Fukuyama on the Jan. 6 connection with the war in Ukraine, Michael McFaul on the West arming Ukraine, Amy Zegart on future U.S. cyber policy, Daniel Sneider on Japan after Shinzo Abe, and Riana Pfefferkorn on abortion and data collection.

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Journal Articles

The View from Somewhere: Lessons from the Intelligence Failure in Iran

Arzan Tarapore
Intelligence and National Security, 2022 July 19, 2022
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Journal Articles

The Association between Micronutrient Powder Delivery and Caregiver Feeding Behaviors in Rural China

Rong Liu, Ruixue Ye, Qingzhi Wang, Lucy Pappas, Sarah-Eve Dill, Scott Rozelle, Huan Zhou
BMC Public Health, 2022 July 16, 2022

Background
High adherence and proper usage of micronutrient powder (MNP) influence child nutritional outcomes, yet few studies explore the role of delivery patterns. This study explores the association between MNP delivery patterns and MNP feeding behaviors among Han and minority caregivers in rural Western China.

Methods
In August 2019, a total of 1021 caregiver-child pairs were selected through a four-stage cluster sampling process. A cross-sectional survey collected information on caregiver demographics, MNP delivery patterns (channel and frequency), and MNP feeding behaviors (proper usage and adherence). Using logistic regression, we examined which delivery channels and delivery frequencies were associated with proper usage and high adherence.

Results
The results indicated that minority caregivers had lower levels of proper MNP usage than did Han caregivers (89.2%), with Tibetan caregivers’ reporting the lowest rates of adherence (32.6%). Logistic regression revealed that that township-based channel was significantly correlated with proper usage among Tibetan and Yi caregivers (Odds Ratio, OR = 2.0, p < 0.01; and OR = 3.5, p < 0.001). Overall, the township-based and home-visit channels were significantly correlated with high adherence (OR = 1.7 and OR = 2.3, respectively; p < 0.001); delivery frequency was significantly correlated with high adherence (2 months: OR = 2.2, p < 0.001 and ≤ 1 month: OR = 3.5, p < 0.001) but not correlated with proper usage among the whole sample and individual ethnic groups.

Conclusions
In conclusion, the study finds evidence of a correlation between MNP delivery channel and both proper usage and high adherence as well as a correlation between MNP delivery frequency and high adherence.

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Journal Articles

Nancy Bernkopf Tucker: Scholar and Public Servant

Thomas Fingar
International Security Studies Forum, 2022 July 12, 2022
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Journal Articles

Education Universalization, Rural School Participation, and Population Density

Xi Zhang
China & World Economy, 2022 July 12, 2022

In many developing countries, low population density may be a major reason for low school participation in rural areas, and the problem is likely to worsen with rapid urbanization. However, few studies have investigated empirically the role of population density in rural education, especially the moderating effect of population density on the outcomes of education policies. This study aims to fill this gap in the literature. From 1999 through the early 2000s, China launched a set of major nationwide policies aimed at universalizing 9-year compulsory education in rural areas. Using differencein- differences and triple difference strategies, we show that the policies significantly increased the probability of junior high school enrollment of rural children and, more importantly, these policies were more effective in densely populated regions. These fi ndings confi rm the importance of population density to rural education.

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Blogs

Getting Transparency Right

Daphne Keller, Max Levy
Lawfare, 2022 July 11, 2022

Transparency is essential to getting every other part of platform regulation right. But defining sound transparency rules—identifying what information is needed most from platforms like Twitter or YouTube, and how to get it—is quite complicated.

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Journal Articles

Effectiveness of vaccination mandates in improving uptake of COVID-19 vaccines in the USA

Renee DiResta, Prof Douglas J Opel, 
Regina M Benjamin, 
Timothy Callaghan, 
Jad A Elharake, Prof Lisa C Flowers, Prof Alison P Galvani, Prof Daniel A Salmon, Jason L Schwartz, Prof Noel T Brewer, 
Alison M Buttenheim, 
Prof Richard M Carpiano, Chelsea Clinton, 
Prof Peter J Hotez, 
Rekha Lakshmanan, 
Prof Yvonne A Maldonado, Prof Saad B Omer, 
Prof Joshua M Sharfstein, 
Prof Arthur Caplan
The Lancet, 2022 July 8, 2022
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Journal Articles

Effectiveness of vaccination mandates in improving uptake of COVID-19 vaccines in the USA

Michelle Mello
The Lancet, 2022 July 8, 2022

Illustration of COVID-19 vaccines
Unsplash/Jeremy Bezanger
Many high-income countries have rapidly pivoted from hard decisions about who may receive COVID-19 vaccines, due to shortages, to equally hard decisions about who must receive them. As lasting containment of COVID-19 remains elusive, many nations—from Costa Rica, to Austria, to Turkmenistan—are turning to vaccination mandates of various kinds. Mandates, however, are controversial in many countries. Austria's proposed mandate for adults, for example, provoked mass protests. Some objectors argue mandates represent undue encroachment on individual liberty. Some other objectors maintain that mandates will not be an effective policy for COVID-19 because many individuals will seek to evade them, and mandates might erode support for other public health measures such as mask wearing.

In this Viewpoint we consider the likely effectiveness of policies that require COVID-19 vaccines in improving vaccine uptake and reducing disease in the USA, in view of the evidence from past vaccination mandates and distinctive aspects of COVID-19. Two dimensions of effectiveness in improving uptake are relevant: (1) target-group effectiveness (the extent to which a mandate improves uptake of vaccines in the group covered by the policy) and (2) population effectiveness (the extent to which mandate policies improve vaccination coverage in the US population).

Full Viewpoint

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Journal Articles

Lawful but Awful? Control over Legal Speech by Platforms, Governments, and Internet Users

Daphne Keller
University of Chicago Law Review, 2022 July 7, 2022

Responding to Elon Musk’s proposed acquisition of Twitter, Daphne Keller suggests that “middleware” models, not common carriage rules, best put control over internet speech regulation in the hands of users.

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White Papers

Defense, Deterrence, and the Role of Guam

Oriana Skylar Mastro
Hudson Institute, 2022 July 5, 2022

An essay in a Hudson Institute report, Defending Guam, edited by Rebeccah Heinreichs

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Journal Articles

Issues Raised by the Tokyo Machinery Case and a Proposal for a New J-Pill

Curtis J. Milhaupt, Zenichi Shishido
Shoji Homu, 2022 June 28, 2022
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Policy Briefs

Policy Roundup: June 2022

Clifton B. Parker
2022 June 27, 2022

Key policy takeaways from Michael McFaul on helping Russians who oppose Putin; Kathryn Stoner on how Putin's War has ruined Russia; Steven Pifer on U.S.-Russia relations; Rose Gottemoeller on U.S. policy towards China in the Pacific region; David Studdert on the risks of guns in the home; Herb Lin on cybersecurity, and Hakeem Jefferson on the Jan. 6 hearings.

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Working Papers

Risk Pooling and Precautionary Saving in Village Economies

Marcel Fafchamps, Aditya Shrinivas
National Bureau of Economic Research, 2022 June 14, 2022

A new method to test for efficient risk pooling allows for intertemporal smoothing, non-homothetic consumption, and heterogeneous risk and time preferences.

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Journal Articles

Understanding the Challenge of China’s Rise: Fixing Conceptual Confusion about Intentions

Oriana Skylar Mastro
Journal of Chinese Political Science, 2022 June 13, 2022
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Journal Articles

Impact of Parental Beliefs on Child Developmental Outcomes: A Quasi-Experiment in Rural China

Lei Wang, Conghong Yang, Dingjing Jiang, Siqi Zhang, Qi Jiang, Scott Rozelle
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2022 June 13, 2022

This paper examines the impact of parental beliefs on child development outcomes (for both cognitive and social–emotional skills) based on a three-wave longitudinal survey in rural China. The survey waves were conducted when the sample children were 18–30 months, 22–36 months, and 49–65 months, respectively. A total of 815 children and their primary caregivers who participated in all three wave surveys were enrolled in this study. Using difference-in-differences and propensity score matching approaches, the results indicate that strengthened parental beliefs have a positive and significant impact on child social–emotional development. Specifically, between the periods of the Wave 1 survey (when children were 18–30 months old) and the Wave 3 survey (when children were 49–65 months old), and between the Wave 2 survey (when children were 22–36 months old) and the Wave 3 survey, strengthened parental beliefs were causally associated with more favorable child social–emotional scores by 0.44 SD (p < 0.01) and 0.49 SD (p < 0.01), respectively. No significant impact, however, was found between the period of the Wave 1 survey and the Wave 2 survey. In contrast, weakened parental beliefs had a negative and significant impact on child social–emotional development. Specifically, weakened parental beliefs were causally associated with worse child social–emotional abilities by 0.35 SD (p < 0.01), 0.30 SD (p < 0.01), and 0.22 (p < 0.05) for the time period of the Wave 1 to Wave 2, Wave 1 to Wave 3, and Wave 2 to Wave 3, respectively. No significant impact of parental beliefs, however, was found on child cognitive development. In addition, the findings of the mediation analysis show that only a marginal impact of parental beliefs on child social–emotional development can be indirectly explained by parental beliefs through parenting practices. This study calls on policy makers to improve parental beliefs and parenting practices in the hope that it will lead to better child development in rural China.

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Journal Articles

Early Parenting Interventions to Foster Human Capital in Developing Countries

Dorien Emmers, Juan Carlos Caro, Scott Rozelle, Sean Sylvia
Annual Review of Resource Economics, 2022 June 13, 2022

One out of every three children under age 5 in developing countries lives in conditions that impede human capital development. In this study, we survey the literature on parenting training programs implemented before age 5, with the aim to increase parental investment in human capital accumulation in developing countries. Our review focuses on the implementation and effectiveness of parenting training programs (i.e., training in child psychosocial stimulation and/or training about nutrition). We emphasize the mechanisms that drive treatment-induced change in human capital outcomes and identify the demand- and supply-side behaviors that affect efficacy and effectiveness. Although the literature includes evidence on program features that are associated with successful interventions, further evidence on the dynamics of human capital formation, documentation of medium- to long-term persistence of treatment impacts, and research on the implementation and evaluation of programs at scale are needed to delineate a scalable and inclusive program that provides long-term treatment impacts.

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Commentary

Medical Device Security Offers Proving Ground for Cybersecurity Action

James X. Dempsey
2022 June 9, 2022

Published in Lawfare 

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Books

Geography Is Destiny

Ian Morris
Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2022 June 7, 2022

Britain and the World: A 10,000-Year History

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Working Papers

Frameworks for a Developmental Welfare State: Lessons From Pakistan's Ehsaas Programme

Sir Michael Barber, Muqueet Shahzad
CDDRL Working Papers, 2022 June 6, 2022
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Journal Articles

Slanted Narratives, Social Media, and Foreign Influence in Libya

Shelby Grossman, Katie Jonsson, Nicholas Lyon, Lydia Sizer
Journal of Quantitative Description, 2022 June 3, 2022
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Commentary

Owning Guns Puts People in Your Home at Greater Risk of Being Killed, New Study Shows

David Studdert
2022 June 3, 2022

Photo of Gun
Unsplash/Steve Woods

Millions of Americans may have asked themselves these questions, or versions of them—especially in the wake of horrific mass shootings like those in Buffalo and Uvalde. Record-breaking spikes in gun sales over the last two years, alongside surveys indicating that self-protection continues to be the dominant reason for buying guns, underscore a widely-held belief that a gun in the home has security benefits.

new study from my research team, recently published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, shows no such benefits. We found the opposite: people living in homes with guns face substantially higher risks of being fatally assaulted.

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