The Program on Geopolitics, Technology, and Governance (GTG) examines how emerging technologies—including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and smart devices—are redefining power, economies, and policies worldwide. Our research addresses the complex challenges these advances pose for international security, and how governments, businesses, and individuals adapt to shifting landscapes of risk and opportunity.
Artificial intelligence is reshaping economies, security, and governance worldwide, raising urgent questions about how to distribute its benefits equitably while managing risks. GTG examines how democracies can leverage AI innovation to advance shared prosperity and security, with particular attention to infrastructure requirements, Global South perspectives, and mechanisms for international cooperation.
Related projects:
AI for Peace
This research initiative investigates how the United States and its allies and partners can leverage their comparative advantages in AI innovation to equitably distribute the benefits of AI while incentivizing trustworthy deployment. The research focuses on three key areas:
Infrastructural requirements for deploying AI at scale for countries at all levels of economic development and multilateral, multi-stakeholder mechanisms for meeting those requirements.
Global South perspectives on promising use cases for AI and governance approaches for facilitating AI deployment while managing risks.
Prospects and options for international collaborations to address cross-border security, environmental, and other externalities.
The Future of Decision-Making Project (FODM) is a multi-year, interdisciplinary research initiative examining how emerging technologies—particularly artificial intelligence and advanced decision-support systems—are reshaping human decision-making in high-stakes domains such as national security, defense, and crisis management. Rather than focusing solely on technological capability, the project centers on the human dimension: how judgment, responsibility, and accountability evolve as machines increasingly inform, shape, or constrain human choices. The project brings together scholars and practitioners from academia, government, and industry to develop empirically grounded, policy-relevant insights into the future of human-machine decision systems.
GEOPOLITICS OF TECHNOLOGY
Emerging technologies are becoming central to great power competition and regional security dynamics. GTG examines how technological advantages translate into geopolitical leverage, how U.S. strategy can balance competition with innovation and alliance partnerships, and how technology is reshaping power dynamics across critical regions like East Asia.
GTG's annual conference and ongoing research initiative brings together leading regional experts, policymakers, and industry leaders to examine how technological developments are reshaping geopolitical dynamics across East Asia. The research focuses on critical technology supply chains—particularly semiconductors—regional responses to U.S.-China competition, and opportunities for multilateral cooperation on technology governance.
CHINA & DIGITAL COMPETITION
China's rapid digital development and distinct governance approaches have profound implications for global markets, security, and technology standards. GTG analyzes Chinese technology policy and corporate strategies through original-language sources, providing insights into how China's digital trajectory shapes international competition and governance debates.
The DigiChina project, led by Graham Webster, enhances understanding of China's digital policy developments through translating and analyzing Chinese-language sources. Since 2017, DigiChina has published translations of primary sources, contextual explanation, and analysis on China’s technology policy landscape, covering topics including the Cybersecurity Law regime, data governance, artificial intelligence, and China’s official push for greater technological independence.
CYBERSECURITY & INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
Effective governance of technology challenges requires sustained dialogue and cooperation across borders. GTG facilitates Track II exchanges with international partners, building relationships and shared understanding that can lay groundwork for broader policy cooperation on cybersecurity and technology governance issues.
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In rural China, there is an urgent need for investment and innovative approaches for addressing adolescent mental health issues. This embedded mixed-methods study examines the effectiveness of a social-emotional learning (SEL) program in rural primary schools across China and the factors affecting compliance among teachers delivering the program. Pre- and post-intervention surveys assessed its effect on 2027 students in 49 schools, and 38 teachers were interviewed during the intervention. Results show that SEL courses improved student mental health. Some teachers reported increased workload and lack of support, while others noted the importance of mental health education and positive student outcomes. Performance incentives and the positive perceptions of SEL among teachers were crucial for effective delivery, though workload and lack of support often limited commitment. Overall, enhancing rural students' well-being through SEL programs requires raising awareness for SEL among teachers and building institutional support.
The Impact of Extending the U.S. Office of Foreign Asset Control General License 134 Series on Russian Oil Revenues, War Financing, and Humanitarian Implications for Ukraine.
Objectives Considering the importance of caregiver mental health for early childhood development, this study investigates risk and protective factors of mental health of mothers and grandmothers caring for infants and toddlers in rural China.
Methods Using survey data from 777 primary caregivers of children aged 5 to 25 months, we apply regression analysis and structural equation modeling to examine associations between social support, mental health literacy, parenting-related hardships, and mental health among mothers and grandmothers.
Results The study finds that 33% of the caregivers report symptoms of mental health problems, with grandmothers experiencing more severe symptoms. Poor caregiver mental health is associated with lower child language (p < 0.05) and social-emotional development (p < 0.001). Social support and mental health literacy are associated with better mental health, but this association was not statistically significant among either the mothers or the grandmothers alone.
Conclusions Enhancing caregiver mental health is crucial for children’s development. Social support and mental health literacy are predictors of mental health. Future research should examine the effect of improving social support and mental health literacy on the mental health of caregivers for young children.
A new report by Florence G'sell, visiting professor in the program on the Governance of Emerging Technologies, offers a nuanced analysis of blockchain technology's relationship with legal and regulatory frameworks.
International Journal of Social Welfare,
April 26, 2026
Caregivers' ability to access, engage with, and critically evaluate digital information on parenting practices (henceforth, “e-parenting literacy”) is emerging as an increasingly important determinant of early childhood development (ECD) outcomes. Therefore, the current study provides empirical evidence of the role of e-parenting literacy for ECD outcomes of 6- to 24-month-olds (N = 564) in rural households in a coastal province in East-China. The study focuses on the role of e-parenting literacy of the two most common types of primary caregivers (i.e., persons in charge of the daily care) of young children in the study region: mother and grandmother caregivers. Empirical results show that 76% of the primary caregivers (N = 429) are mothers, the remaining 135 primary caregivers are grandmothers. Overall, e-parenting literacy is found to be positively and significantly associated with children's early cognitive development outcomes. Furthermore, a heterogeneity analysis shows that e-parenting literacy is positively and significantly associated with children's early cognitive and language outcomes when the primary caregiver is a grandmother, but not when the primary caregiver is a mother. This may reflect greater heterogeneity in grandmothers' digital device use and e-parenting literacy, while most mothers already possess adequate e-parenting skills. Additionally, older children (i.e., 16- to 24-month-olds), who may require more advanced parenting skills than their slightly younger peers, are also found to benefit more from gains in e-parenting literacy. This research highlights how digital inclusion can help to bridge gaps in caregiving practices and developmental opportunities of young children growing up in developing settings.
China Agricultural Economic Review,
April 21, 2026
Purpose While peer effects in education have been extensively studied in developed countries, there has been limited investigation of how physical proximity shapes academic achievement in rural educational settings. This study examines peer effects among primary school students in rural China and investigates whether these effects operate differently across student ability levels through distinct mechanisms.
Design/methodology/approach Data from 2,956 primary school students across rural counties in Shaanxi Province, China, were analyzed. We employ an instrumental variable approach using physical distance between students in classroom seating arrangements to address endogeneity in peer group formation. Study group formation is measured through student-reported study partnerships, while academic performance is assessed using standardized mathematics test scores.
Findings Study groups significantly enhance student achievement, with heterogeneous effects across ability levels. Middle tercile students show the strongest peer effects (0.318 standard deviations), compared to bottom tercile students (0.241 standard deviations). Mechanism analysis reveals that peer effects operate primarily through improved intrinsic motivation, enhanced self-concept, and reduced academic anxiety among middle-performing students, while effects for bottom tercile students operate through alternative pathways not captured in our measures.
Research limitations/implications Our findings inform cost-efficient policy interventions in both educational institutions and corporate environments. The evidence indicates that optimizing spatial proximity in peer networks represents an efficient policy instrument for human capital accumulation, particularly valuable in resource-constrained settings, as it leverages existing human capital without substantial additional inputs.
Originality/value This study provides the first evidence of peer effects using classroom seating arrangements as an identification strategy in a developing country/rural community context. The paper demonstrates that optimizing peer proximity represents a cost-efficient policy instrument for human capital development in resource-constrained rural areas, offering important implications for educational policy in agricultural communities where traditional educational resources are limited.
Introduction: Longitudinal trends in breastfeeding (BF) are often overlooked in favor of binary or time-to-cessation measures. Characterizing these trends can inform promotion of sustained BF practices. We identified distinct BF profiles among participants of a maternal and child health program.
Methods: The Healthy Future program consisted of community health workers delivering a BF curriculum to mothers through monthly home visits. The program was evaluated in rural Sichuan, China with a cluster-randomized controlled trial (assigned to program versus not). We clustered 6-month postpartum trends (n = 949) of maternal-reported infant feeding using dynamic time warping. For each month, participants were categorized as either exclusive breastfeeding (EBF), mixed feeding (MF, feeding breastmilk plus other foods or liquids), or not breastfeeding (NBF). After identifying clusters, we regressed BF profiles on intervention assignment using adjusted multinomial logistic regression.
Results: Cluster analysis revealed seven profiles: always EBF, always MF, never breastfed, EBF until the 5th month, MF until the 5th month, mostly EBF, and NBF from the 3rd month. The intervention was associated with improved odds of always EBF (ROR = 2.61, 95% CI 1.25, 5.42), MF until the 5th month (ROR = 2.52, 95% CI 1.18, 5.39), and NBF from the 3rd month (ROR = 2.82, 95% CI 1.16, 6.87) compared to being never breastfed. Mothers in the never breastfed cluster had the lowest age, education, BF knowledge and attitudes, and decision-making power.
Discussion: Cluster analyses found the intervention significantly improved EBF, particularly in mothers characterized by higher baseline educational attainment and BF knowledge. Targeted efforts are needed to help mothers initiate EBF from birth and continue EBF through month 6.
