Browse FSI scholarship on geopolitics, global health, energy, cybersecurity and more.
Featured Publications
Security Through Cooperation: Space, Nuclear Weapons, and U.S.-Russia Relations after the Cold War
Rose Gottemoeller uses lessons learned from U.S.-Russia relations during the George H. W. Bush and Clinton administrations to offer insights into how Russia today may be convinced to end its war against Ukraine and resume cooperation for the sake of global security.
Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the New Global Disorder
A clear-eyed look from Michael McFaul at how the rise of autocratic China and Russia are compelling some to think that we have entered a new Cold War—and why we must reject that thinking in order to prevail.
The National College Entrance Examination shapes the future of millions of students in China each year, but Hongbin Li and Ruixue Jia illuminate how this test of all tests is also shaping education, labor markets, political legitimacy, and social values beyond the PRC.
A new report by Florence G'sell, visiting professor in the program on the Governance of Emerging Technologies, offers a nuanced analysis of blockchain technology's relationship with legal and regulatory frameworks.
International Journal of Social Welfare,
April 26, 2026
Caregivers' ability to access, engage with, and critically evaluate digital information on parenting practices (henceforth, “e-parenting literacy”) is emerging as an increasingly important determinant of early childhood development (ECD) outcomes. Therefore, the current study provides empirical evidence of the role of e-parenting literacy for ECD outcomes of 6- to 24-month-olds (N = 564) in rural households in a coastal province in East-China. The study focuses on the role of e-parenting literacy of the two most common types of primary caregivers (i.e., persons in charge of the daily care) of young children in the study region: mother and grandmother caregivers. Empirical results show that 76% of the primary caregivers (N = 429) are mothers, the remaining 135 primary caregivers are grandmothers. Overall, e-parenting literacy is found to be positively and significantly associated with children's early cognitive development outcomes. Furthermore, a heterogeneity analysis shows that e-parenting literacy is positively and significantly associated with children's early cognitive and language outcomes when the primary caregiver is a grandmother, but not when the primary caregiver is a mother. This may reflect greater heterogeneity in grandmothers' digital device use and e-parenting literacy, while most mothers already possess adequate e-parenting skills. Additionally, older children (i.e., 16- to 24-month-olds), who may require more advanced parenting skills than their slightly younger peers, are also found to benefit more from gains in e-parenting literacy. This research highlights how digital inclusion can help to bridge gaps in caregiving practices and developmental opportunities of young children growing up in developing settings.
China Agricultural Economic Review,
April 21, 2026
Purpose While peer effects in education have been extensively studied in developed countries, there has been limited investigation of how physical proximity shapes academic achievement in rural educational settings. This study examines peer effects among primary school students in rural China and investigates whether these effects operate differently across student ability levels through distinct mechanisms.
Design/methodology/approach Data from 2,956 primary school students across rural counties in Shaanxi Province, China, were analyzed. We employ an instrumental variable approach using physical distance between students in classroom seating arrangements to address endogeneity in peer group formation. Study group formation is measured through student-reported study partnerships, while academic performance is assessed using standardized mathematics test scores.
Findings Study groups significantly enhance student achievement, with heterogeneous effects across ability levels. Middle tercile students show the strongest peer effects (0.318 standard deviations), compared to bottom tercile students (0.241 standard deviations). Mechanism analysis reveals that peer effects operate primarily through improved intrinsic motivation, enhanced self-concept, and reduced academic anxiety among middle-performing students, while effects for bottom tercile students operate through alternative pathways not captured in our measures.
Research limitations/implications Our findings inform cost-efficient policy interventions in both educational institutions and corporate environments. The evidence indicates that optimizing spatial proximity in peer networks represents an efficient policy instrument for human capital accumulation, particularly valuable in resource-constrained settings, as it leverages existing human capital without substantial additional inputs.
Originality/value This study provides the first evidence of peer effects using classroom seating arrangements as an identification strategy in a developing country/rural community context. The paper demonstrates that optimizing peer proximity represents a cost-efficient policy instrument for human capital development in resource-constrained rural areas, offering important implications for educational policy in agricultural communities where traditional educational resources are limited.
Introduction: Longitudinal trends in breastfeeding (BF) are often overlooked in favor of binary or time-to-cessation measures. Characterizing these trends can inform promotion of sustained BF practices. We identified distinct BF profiles among participants of a maternal and child health program.
Methods: The Healthy Future program consisted of community health workers delivering a BF curriculum to mothers through monthly home visits. The program was evaluated in rural Sichuan, China with a cluster-randomized controlled trial (assigned to program versus not). We clustered 6-month postpartum trends (n = 949) of maternal-reported infant feeding using dynamic time warping. For each month, participants were categorized as either exclusive breastfeeding (EBF), mixed feeding (MF, feeding breastmilk plus other foods or liquids), or not breastfeeding (NBF). After identifying clusters, we regressed BF profiles on intervention assignment using adjusted multinomial logistic regression.
Results: Cluster analysis revealed seven profiles: always EBF, always MF, never breastfed, EBF until the 5th month, MF until the 5th month, mostly EBF, and NBF from the 3rd month. The intervention was associated with improved odds of always EBF (ROR = 2.61, 95% CI 1.25, 5.42), MF until the 5th month (ROR = 2.52, 95% CI 1.18, 5.39), and NBF from the 3rd month (ROR = 2.82, 95% CI 1.16, 6.87) compared to being never breastfed. Mothers in the never breastfed cluster had the lowest age, education, BF knowledge and attitudes, and decision-making power.
Discussion: Cluster analyses found the intervention significantly improved EBF, particularly in mothers characterized by higher baseline educational attainment and BF knowledge. Targeted efforts are needed to help mothers initiate EBF from birth and continue EBF through month 6.
Companion Report to “Willing Accomplices: Gazprom and Rosneft’s Role in the Transport and Indoctrination of Ukraine’s Children” The Yale Humanitarian Research Lab
In this NBER working paper, SHP courtesy faculty member Marcella Alsan, MD, PhD, shows that beneath the polarization over gun violence, owners and non-owners share a common objective: safety. But they disagree sharply about whether lethal firearms achieve it.
