The Program on Geopolitics, Technology, and Governance (GTG) examines how emerging technologies—including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and smart devices—are redefining power, economies, and policies worldwide. Our research addresses the complex challenges these advances pose for international security, and how governments, businesses, and individuals adapt to shifting landscapes of risk and opportunity.
Artificial intelligence is reshaping economies, security, and governance worldwide, raising urgent questions about how to distribute its benefits equitably while managing risks. GTG examines how democracies can leverage AI innovation to advance shared prosperity and security, with particular attention to infrastructure requirements, Global South perspectives, and mechanisms for international cooperation.
Related projects:
AI for Peace
This research initiative investigates how the United States and its allies and partners can leverage their comparative advantages in AI innovation to equitably distribute the benefits of AI while incentivizing trustworthy deployment. The research focuses on three key areas:
Infrastructural requirements for deploying AI at scale for countries at all levels of economic development and multilateral, multi-stakeholder mechanisms for meeting those requirements.
Global South perspectives on promising use cases for AI and governance approaches for facilitating AI deployment while managing risks.
Prospects and options for international collaborations to address cross-border security, environmental, and other externalities.
The Future of Decision-Making Project (FODM) is a multi-year, interdisciplinary research initiative examining how emerging technologies—particularly artificial intelligence and advanced decision-support systems—are reshaping human decision-making in high-stakes domains such as national security, defense, and crisis management. Rather than focusing solely on technological capability, the project centers on the human dimension: how judgment, responsibility, and accountability evolve as machines increasingly inform, shape, or constrain human choices. The project brings together scholars and practitioners from academia, government, and industry to develop empirically grounded, policy-relevant insights into the future of human-machine decision systems.
GEOPOLITICS OF TECHNOLOGY
Emerging technologies are becoming central to great power competition and regional security dynamics. GTG examines how technological advantages translate into geopolitical leverage, how U.S. strategy can balance competition with innovation and alliance partnerships, and how technology is reshaping power dynamics across critical regions like East Asia.
GTG's annual conference and ongoing research initiative brings together leading regional experts, policymakers, and industry leaders to examine how technological developments are reshaping geopolitical dynamics across East Asia. The research focuses on critical technology supply chains—particularly semiconductors—regional responses to U.S.-China competition, and opportunities for multilateral cooperation on technology governance.
CHINA & DIGITAL COMPETITION
China's rapid digital development and distinct governance approaches have profound implications for global markets, security, and technology standards. GTG analyzes Chinese technology policy and corporate strategies through original-language sources, providing insights into how China's digital trajectory shapes international competition and governance debates.
The DigiChina project, led by Graham Webster, enhances understanding of China's digital policy developments through translating and analyzing Chinese-language sources. Since 2017, DigiChina has published translations of primary sources, contextual explanation, and analysis on China’s technology policy landscape, covering topics including the Cybersecurity Law regime, data governance, artificial intelligence, and China’s official push for greater technological independence.
CYBERSECURITY & INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION
Effective governance of technology challenges requires sustained dialogue and cooperation across borders. GTG facilitates Track II exchanges with international partners, building relationships and shared understanding that can lay groundwork for broader policy cooperation on cybersecurity and technology governance issues.
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Background Comorbidity in mental disorders is prevalent among adolescents, with evidence suggesting a general psychopathology factor (“p” factor) that reflects shared mechanisms across different disorders. However, the association between the “p” factor and protective factors remains understudied. The current study aimed to explore the “p” factor, and its associations with psycho-social functioning, in Chinese adolescents.
Methods 2052 students, aged 9–17, were recruited from primary and secondary schools in Shanghai, China. Multiple rating scales were used to assess psychological symptoms and psycho-social functioning. Confirmatory factor analysis was conducted to verify the fit of models involving different psychopathology domains such as externalizing, internalizing, and the “p” factor. Subsequently, structural equation models were used to explore associations between the extracted factors and psycho-social functioning, including emotion regulation, mindful attention awareness, self-esteem, self-efficacy, resilience, and perceived support.
Results The bi-factor model demonstrated a good fit, with a “p” factor accounting for 46 % of symptom variation, indicating that the psychological symptoms of Chinese adolescents could be explained by internalizing, externalizing, and the “p” factor. Psychologically, a higher “p” was positively correlated with emotion suppression and negatively correlated with mindful attention awareness, emotion reappraisal, self-esteem, and resilience. Socially, a higher “p” was associated with decreased perceived support.
Limitations Only common symptoms were included as this study was conducted at school. Furthermore, the cross-sectional design limited our ability to investigate causal relationships.
Conclusions A “p” factor exists among Chinese adolescents. Individuals with higher “p” factor levels were prone to experience lower levels of psycho-social functions.
Background: To explore the associations between anxiety and depression symptoms and academic burnout among children and adolescents in China, and to examine the role of resilience and self-efficacy in addressing academic burnout.
Methods: A total of 2,070 students in grades 4–8 were recruited from two primary and three middle schools in Shanghai, completed the Elementary School Student Burnout Scale (ESSBS), the Multidimensional Anxiety Scale for Children-Chinese (MASC-C), the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale (CES-D), the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC), and the General Self-Efficacy Scale (GSES), with 95.04% effective response rate. Multivariable regression analyses examining the associations between anxiety / depression symptoms and academic burnout (as well as the associations between resilience / self-efficacy and academic burnout) were performed using STATA 16.0 and SmartPLS 3.0.
Results: Anxiety symptoms (β = 0.124, p < 0.01) and depression symptoms (β = 0.477, p < 0.01) were positively correlated with academic burnout. Resilience partially mediated the association between depression symptoms and academic burnout (β = 0.059, p < 0.01), with a mediation rate of 12.37%. Self-efficacy partially mediated the associations between anxiety symptoms and academic burnout (β = 0.022, p < 0.01) and between depression symptoms and academic burnout (β = 0.017, p < 0.01), with mediation rates of 17.74% and 3.56%, respectively. Resilience and self-efficacy together (β = 0.041, p < 0.01) formed a mediating chain between depression symptoms and academic burnout, with a mediation rate of 8.6%.
Conclusions: Anxiety and depression symptoms were positively associated with academic burnout. Resilience and self-efficacy were found to mediate the associations partially.
Background: Maternal empowerment - the capacity to make decisions within households - is linked to better child feeding and nutritional outcomes, but few studies have considered the mediating role of caregiver knowledge. Further, existing literature centres primarily on the husband-wife dyad while overlooking grandmothers as important childcare decision-makers.
Methods: We collected primary data through household surveys in 2019 and 2021 from 1190 households with infants zero to six months living in rural western China. We identified the primary and secondary caregivers for each infant and assessed their feeding knowledge and practices, as well as infant nutritional status. We constructed a maternal empowerment index using a seven-item decision-making questionnaire and examined the relationship between maternal empowerment in childcare and household decisions, caregivers' feeding knowledge, and infant feeding practices and nutritional outcomes.
Results: Mothers had significantly higher levels of feeding knowledge than secondary caregivers (most were grandmothers, 72.7%), with average knowledge scores of 5.4 vs. 4.1, respectively, out of 9. Mothers and secondary caregivers with higher levels of feeding knowledge had significantly higher exclusive breastfeeding rates by 13-15 percentage points (P < 0.01) and 11-13 percentage points (P < 0.01), respectively. The knowledge of secondary caregivers was even more strongly associated with not feeding formula (15 percentage points, P < 0.01). Mothers empowered to make childcare decisions were more likely to exclusively breastfeed (12-13 percentage points, P < 0.01), less likely to formula feed (9-10 percentage points, P < 0.05), and more likely to have children with higher Z-scores for length-for-age (0.32-0.33, P < 0.01) and weight-for-age (0.24-0.25, P < 0.05). Effects remained after controlling for maternal feeding knowledge.
Conclusions: While mothers' and grandmothers' feeding knowledge was both important for optimal infant feeding, grandmothers' knowledge was particularly critical for practicing exclusive breastfeeding. Given the disparity in feeding knowledge between the two caregivers, our study further shows that mothers empowered in childcare decision-making were more likely to exclusively breastfeed their infants. This implies that some mothers with adequate knowledge may not practice optimal feeding because of lower decision-making power. Overall, our study highlights the role of secondary caregivers (grandmothers) in infant care and suggests that future child nutritional interventions may benefit from involving secondary caregivers (grandmothers).
Economic Development and Cultural Change,
June 7, 2024
EdTech, which includes computer assisted learning (CAL), online education, and remote instruction, was expanding rapidly even before the current full-scale substitution for in-person learning at all levels of education around the world because of COVID-19. Studies of CAL interventions often find positive effects, however, these “CAL programs” often include non-technology based inputs such as more time on learning and instructional support by facilitators in addition to technology-based components. In this paper, we discuss the possible channels by which CAL programs affect academic outcomes among schoolchildren. We isolate the technology-based effects of CAL from the total program effects by designing a novel multi-treatment field experiment with more than four thousand schoolchildren in rural China. For the full sample, we find null effects for both the total CAL program and the technology-based effects of CAL (which are measured relative to a traditional pencil-and-paper learning treatment) on math test scores. For boys, however, we find a positive and statistically significant effect of the CAL program, but do not find evidence of a positive effect for the technology-based effect of CAL. When focusing on grades, we find evidence of positive CAL program effects but find null effects when we isolate the technology-based effects of CAL. Our empirical results suggest that the “Tech” in EdTech may have relatively small additional effects on academic outcomes and yet that tech programs can substitute at least to a certain extent for traditional learning.
According to Communist Party discourse, China’s ‘New Era’ began when Xi Jinping was anointed Party boss in 2012. The shape of this New Era became eminently clear in 2023 when Xi commenced his third five-year term as General Secretary of the Party, a fortification of one-man authoritarian rule unprecedented in post-Mao China. Under Xi, the Party has expanded its influence over government, the economy and society. The Party-State is now more Party than State. The year 2023 saw other ‘new eras’ for China as well. Despite initial optimism sparked by the end of COVID-19 restrictions in late 2022, the Chinese economy in 2023 was buffeted by continuing property sector woes, record unemployment, and an unfolding local government debt crisis. Globally, China adopted a series of new and ambitious diplomatic initiatives to woo the Global South and amplify its voice on the world stage. The China Story Yearbook 2023: China’s New Era provides informed perspectives on these and other important stories that will resonate for years to come.
