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Journal Articles

Two shifts for crop mapping: Leveraging aggregate crop statistics to improve satellite-based maps in new regions

David Lobell
Remote Sensing of Environment , 2021
Crop type mapping at the field level is critical for a variety of applications in agricultural monitoring, and satellite imagery is becoming an increasingly abundant and useful raw input from which to create crop type maps. Still, in many regions crop type mapping with satellite data remains constrained by a scarcity of field-level crop labels for training supervised classification models. When training data is not available in one region, classifiers trained in similar regions can be transferred, but shifts in the distribution of crop types as well as transformations of the features between regions lead to reduced classification accuracy. We present a methodology that uses aggregate-level crop statistics to correct the classifier by accounting for these two types of shifts. To adjust for shifts in the crop type composition we present a scheme for properly reweighting the posterior probabilities of each class that are output by the classifier. To adjust for shifts in features we propose a method to estimate and remove linear shifts in the mean feature vector. We demonstrate that this methodology leads to substantial improvements in overall classification accuracy when using Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) to map crop types in Occitanie, France and in Western Province, Kenya. When using LDA as our base classifier, we found that in France our methodology led to percent reductions in misclassifications ranging from 2.8% to 42.2% (mean = 21.9%) over eleven different training departments, and in Kenya the percent reductions in misclassification were 6.6%, 28.4%, and 42.7% for three training regions. While our methodology was statistically motivated by the LDA classifier, it can be applied to any type of classifier. As an example, we demonstrate its successful application to improve a Random Forest classifier.
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Journal Articles

Democracies Linked To Greater Universal Health Coverage Compared With Autocracies, Even In An Economic Recession

Tara Templin, Joseph L. Dieleman , Simon Wigley, John Everett Mumford, Molly Miller-Petrie, Samantha Kiernan, Thomas J. Bollyky
Health Affairs , 2021
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Journal Articles

Healthcare Utilization at Retirement in China

Qin Zhou, Karen Eggleston, Gordon G. Liu
Health Economics , 2021
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Journal Articles

Indian Ocean Strategic Futures

Arzan Tarapore, David Brewster
Asia Policy , 2021
Re-examining assumptions of capability and intent
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Commentary

Legal Look at Proof of Vaccination & Ongoing Fight Against COVID-19

David Studdert, Michelle Mello
2021
Stanford health law experts Michelle Mello and David Studdert discuss the ongoing pandemic, proof of vaccination “passports” at the state and federal levels, and a July 19 ruling that Indiana University could require that its students be vaccinated.
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Journal Articles

COVID-19 in the California State Prison System: an Observational Study of Decarceration, Ongoing Risks, and Risk Factors

Elizabeth T. Chin, Tess Ryckman, Lea Prince, David Leidner, Fernando Alarid-Escudero, Jason R. Andrews, Joshua Salomon, David Studdert, Jeremy Goldhaber-Fiebert
Journal of General Internal Medicine , 2021
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Books

In the Forest of No Joy: The Congo-Océan Railroad and the Tragedy of French Colonialism

James P. Daughton
2021
The epic story of the Congo-Océan railroad and the human costs and contradictions of modern empire.
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Commentary

Opinion: Global spyware such as Pegasus is a threat to democracy. Here’s how to stop it.

Marietje Schaake
2021
Opinion piece in the Washington Post, by David Kaye and Marietje Schaake
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Journal Articles

Cleaner air has contributed one-fifth of US maize and soybean yield gains since 1999

David Lobell, Jennifer Burney
Environmental Research Letters , 2021
Crop productivity is potentially affected by several air pollutants, although these are usually studied in isolation. A significant challenge to understanding the effects of multiple pollutants in many regions is the dearth of air quality data near agricultural fields. Here we empirically estimate the effect of four key pollutants (ozone (O3), particulate matter (PM), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen dioxide (NO2)) on maize and soybean yields in the United States using a combination of administrative data and satellite-derived yield estimates. We identify clear negative effects of exposure to O3, PM, and SO2 in both crops, using yields measured in the vicinity of monitoring stations. We also show that while stations measuring NO2 are too sparse to reliably estimate a yield effect, the strong gradient of NO2 concentrations near power plants allows us to more precisely estimate NO2 effects using satellite measured yield gradients. The presence of some powerplants that turn on and others that shut down during the study period are particularly useful for attributing yield gradients to pollution. We estimate that total yield losses from these pollutants averaged roughly 5% for both maize and soybean over the past two decades. While all four pollutants have statistically significant effects, PM and NO2 appear more damaging to crops at current levels than O3 and SO2. Finally, we find that the significant improvement in air quality since 1999 has halved the impact of poor air quality on major crops and contributed to yield increases that represent roughly 20% of overall yield gains over that period.
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Journal Articles

COVID-19 Related Immunization Disruptions in Rajasthan, India

Radhika Jain, Ambika Chopra, Camille Falézan, Mustufa Patel, Pascaline Dupas
Vaccine , 2021
A retrospective observational study
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Working Papers

Compliance with Price Transparency by California Hospitals

Bianca Mulaney, Shreya A. Shah, Christine Kim, Shreya A. Shah, Christine Kim, Laurence C. Baker
2021
An examination of how California hospitals are adhering to the federal policy on price transparency.
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White Papers

My Heart Loves the Army: An Investigation into a Jordanian Disinformation Campaign on Facebook, TikTok and Twitter (TAKEDOWN)

Shelby Grossman, Elena Cryst, Renee DiResta, Carly Miller, K.H., Rajeev Sharma, Chase Small, Julia Thompson
2021
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Journal Articles

Historical warming has increased U.S. crop insurance losses

Marshall Burke
Environmental Research Letters , 2021
Quantification of the sector-specific financial impacts of historical global warming represents a critical gap in climate change impacts assessment. The multiple decades of county-level data available from the U.S. crop insurance program – which collectively represent aggregate damages to the agricultural sector largely borne by U.S. taxpayers – present a unique opportunity to close this gap. Using econometric analysis in combination with observed and simulated changes in county-level temperature, we show that global warming has already contributed substantially to rising crop insurance losses in the U.S. For example, we estimate that county-level temperature trends have contributed $US2017 23.9 billion – or 17% – of the national-level crop insurance losses over the 1991-2017 period. Further, we estimate that observed warming contributed approximately one third of total losses in the most costly single year (2012). In addition, analyses of a large suite of global climate model simulations yield very high confidence that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased U.S. crop insurance losses. These sector-specific estimates provide important quantitative information about the financial costs of the global warming that has already occurred (including the costs of individual extreme events), as well as the economic value of mitigation and/or adaptation options.
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Journal Articles

The Impact of Catastrophic Medical Insurance in China: A Five-Year Patient-Level Panel Study

MinYu, Jieming Zhong, Ruying Hu, Xiangyu Chen, Chunmei Wang, Kaixu Xie, Merrell Guzman, Xiaotong Gui, Sandra Tian-Jiao Kong, Tingting Qu, Karen Eggleston
The Lancet Regional Health - Western Pacific , 2021
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Working Papers

The Virus and the Vote: Administering the 2020 Election in a Pandemic

Nathaniel Persily, Charles Stewart III, Chelsey Davidson, Zahavah Levine
2021
A Compendium of Research from the Stanford-MIT Healthy Elections Project
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Journal Articles

Wind and solar in Africa need grids to match

Mark C. Thurber, Murefu Barasa, Rose M. Mutiso, Beryl Ajwang
Electricity Journal , 2021
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Policy Briefs

Mitigating the Risk of a China–India Conflict

Arzan Tarapore
Australian Strategic Policy Institute , 2021
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Commentary

How to Protect Critical Infrastructure Fom Ransomware Attacks

Gregory Falco, Sejal Jhawer
2021
Op-ed in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, by Gregory Falco and Sejal Jhawer
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Journal Articles

Development and Validation of the CHIME Simulation Model to Assess Lifetime Health Outcomes of Prediabetes and Type 2 Diabetes in Chinese Populations: A Modeling Study

Jianchao Quan, Carmen S. Ng, Harley H. Y. Kwok, Ada Zhang, Yuet H. Yuen, Cheung-Hei Choi, Shing-Chung Siu, Simon Y. Tang, Nelson M. Wat, Jean Woo, Karen Eggleston, Gabriel M. Leung
PLOS Medicine , 2021
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Working Papers

Women Left Behind

Radhika Jain, Pascaline Dupas
National Bureau of Economic Research , 2021
Gender Disparities in Utilization of Government Health Insurance in India
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Working Papers

Market Power Mitigation Mechanisms for Wholesale Electricity Markets: Status Quo and Challenges

Christoph Graf, Emilio La Pera, Federico Quaglia, Frank Wolak
Program on Energy and Sustainable Development , 2021
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