‘Checks and Balances Hole’

Cain, the director of the Bill Lane Center for the American West, described President Trump as a “heat-seeking missile that finds ambiguity in the law,” and noted how Trump has, for example, sought to exploit the Electoral Count Act, among other actions.

Cain said many executive orders from the current administration are probing possible “holes” in the legal system. “There are some problems in the underlying legislation” on different issues that need to be remedied while, at the same time, Congress needs to fulfill its Constitutional responsibilities. 

“The Congress could act on the tariffs, but they’re not. So, what we have is a checks and balances hole,” said Cain, who added that incoming administrations basically have a two-year window to implement change before midterm elections.

He noted corruption and immunity concerns, such as those involving meme coins and pardons, as well as “exceptionally ostentatious and obvious ways to enrich his family.”

Cain said, “It’s really painful to watch a political system that I’ve always been very proud of…is clearly being dragged in the mud, not only in the eyes of the international community, but also in the eyes of us.”

He said that a recent group of Canadian scholars cancelled their appearances at a Stanford event because they were so angry about the way the president has talked about Canada. “You realize he’s also attacking California and Stanford, so we're all in this together,” Cain recalled telling one of the Canadians.

‘A Very Familiar Textbook’

Grzymala-Busse, a professor of political science and FSI senior fellow, compared the Trump administration’s actions to what has already happened in places like Hungary. “It’s a very familiar textbook,” she said.

For example, when the administration weaponizes its tax authority to go after perceived opponents, it reflects what is in Project 2025 and a tactic that follows directly from what (Hungarian Prime Minister Victor) Orban has done, she said.

However, given all aspects of the current administration’s relationships globally, the backlash is real, Grzymala-Busse said, especially in Europe.

“People are disappointed, but not surprised,” she said. “There’s a perception that America is explicitly eroding its soft power by getting rid of foreign aid, visas for international students, and so on. It is withdrawing from international alliances,” such as the World Health Organization and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

Meanwhile, the United States is basically plunging global trade and global economic networks into chaos, Grzymala-Busse added.

“There is a new feeling and new urgency among European leaders that they'll have to go it alone. No one wants to do this, but for example Germany right now is sending much more support to Ukraine than it otherwise would, and it’s playing now much more of a leadership role than we ever thought was possible,” she said.
 

House and Senate Dynamics

Cain, as to what the future holds domestically, said, “I think that the most likely outcome based on what I see in the data is that the Republicans will lose control of the House and they will lose a couple seats in the Senate.”

But, he said, it’s a “tough map for the Democrats” in the Senate. He surmised that Republicans would be content if they pass the current Trump administration’s so-called “big, beautiful bill,” even if they lose the House next year.

“They’ll be fine with controlling the Senate,” he said, “because then they can control the judicial nominations, which is really the agenda they want.”

He added, “It depends on the time of day whether I’ll be optimistic or pessimistic because I think it’s hard to tell at this point.”

The Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy program was established in 1982 to provide students with the knowledge and skills necessary to analyze and address complex global challenges in a rapidly changing world, and to prepare the next generation of leaders for public and private sector careers in international policymaking and implementation.