GTG Research
Artificial intelligence is reshaping economies, security, and governance worldwide, raising urgent questions about how to distribute its benefits equitably while managing risks. GTG examines how democracies can leverage AI innovation to advance shared prosperity and security, with particular attention to infrastructure requirements, Global South perspectives, and mechanisms for international cooperation.
Related projects:
AI for Peace
This research initiative investigates how the United States and its allies and partners can leverage their comparative advantages in AI innovation to equitably distribute the benefits of AI while incentivizing trustworthy deployment. The research focuses on three key areas:
- Infrastructural requirements for deploying AI at scale for countries at all levels of economic development and multilateral, multi-stakeholder mechanisms for meeting those requirements.
- Global South perspectives on promising use cases for AI and governance approaches for facilitating AI deployment while managing risks.
- Prospects and options for international collaborations to address cross-border security, environmental, and other externalities.
The Future of Decision–Making
The Future of Decision-Making Project (FODM) is a multi-year, interdisciplinary research initiative examining how emerging technologies—particularly artificial intelligence and advanced decision-support systems—are reshaping human decision-making in high-stakes domains such as national security, defense, and crisis management. Rather than focusing solely on technological capability, the project centers on the human dimension: how judgment, responsibility, and accountability evolve as machines increasingly inform, shape, or constrain human choices. The project brings together scholars and practitioners from academia, government, and industry to develop empirically grounded, policy-relevant insights into the future of human-machine decision systems.
Emerging technologies are becoming central to great power competition and regional security dynamics. GTG examines how technological advantages translate into geopolitical leverage, how U.S. strategy can balance competition with innovation and alliance partnerships, and how technology is reshaping power dynamics across critical regions like East Asia.
Related projects:
Geopolitics of Technology in East Asia
GTG's annual conference and ongoing research initiative brings together leading regional experts, policymakers, and industry leaders to examine how technological developments are reshaping geopolitical dynamics across East Asia. The research focuses on critical technology supply chains—particularly semiconductors—regional responses to U.S.-China competition, and opportunities for multilateral cooperation on technology governance.
China's rapid digital development and distinct governance approaches have profound implications for global markets, security, and technology standards. GTG analyzes Chinese technology policy and corporate strategies through original-language sources, providing insights into how China's digital trajectory shapes international competition and governance debates.
Related projects:
The DigiChina project, led by Graham Webster, enhances understanding of China's digital policy developments through translating and analyzing Chinese-language sources. Since 2017, DigiChina has published translations of primary sources, contextual explanation, and analysis on China’s technology policy landscape, covering topics including the Cybersecurity Law regime, data governance, artificial intelligence, and China’s official push for greater technological independence.
Effective governance of technology challenges requires sustained dialogue and cooperation across borders. GTG facilitates Track II exchanges with international partners, building relationships and shared understanding that can lay groundwork for broader policy cooperation on cybersecurity and technology governance issues.
Recent Publications
An Organizational Approach
Pragmatic Clinical Trial of Population Health, Portal-Based Depression Screening: the PORTAL-Depression Study
Background
A population health approach to depression screening using patient portals may be a promising strategy to proactively engage and identify patients with depression.
JAMA Forum: Resuscitating Abortion Rights in Emergency Care
In this JAMA Forum article by Stanford Health Policy's Michelle Mello, the professor of health policy and law writes that reports are mounting of pregnant patients being denied potentially lifesaving care in emergency departments.
Effect of Eyeglasses on Student Academic Performance: What Matters? Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in China
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Although eyeglasses have been considered a cost-effective way to combat myopia, the empirical evidence of its impacts on improving learning outcomes is inconsistent. This paper provides empirical evidence examining the effect of providing eyeglasses on academic performance between provinces with a different economic level in western China. Overall, we find a significant impact in Intention-to-Treat analysis and a large and significant local average treatment effect of providing free eyeglasses to students in the poor province but not in the other. The difference in impact between the two provinces is not a matter of experimental design, implementation, or partial compliance. Instead, we find that the lack of impact in the wealthier provinces is mainly due to less blackboard usage in class and wealthier households. Our study found that providing free eyeglasses to disadvantaged groups boosted their academic performance more than to their counterparts.
Runet’s Critical Juncture: The Ukraine War and the Battle for the Soul of the Web
Following Russia's February 24, 2022 invasion of Ukraine, it briefly seemed that Russia could be cut off from the global internet.
Paper from the Content Policy and Society Lab
Key policy takeaways from Rose Gottemoeller on why the U.S. should avoid a nuclear arms race, Michael McFaul on how Putin may try to end the war in Ukraine, Oriana Skylar Mastro on China's intentions toward Taiwan, Francis Fukuyama on political realignment in America, Renée DiResta and Samantha Bradshaw on Russian propaganda in cyberspace, and Gil Baram on the cyber war between Israel and Iran.
Chapter in the volume Economies, Institutions and Territories: Dissecting Nexuses in a Changing World.
Parenting Centers and Caregiver Mental Health: Evidence from a Large-Scale Randomized Controlled Trial in China
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This study conducts an exploratory analysis of the impacts of a center-based early childhood development intervention on the mental health of caregivers, using data from a cluster-randomized controlled trial of 1664 caregivers (Mage = 36.87 years old) of 6- to 24-month-old children in 100 villages in rural China. Caregivers and children in 50 villages received individual parenting training, group activities and open play space in village parenting centers. The results show no significant overall change in caregiver-reported mental health symptoms after 1 year of intervention. Subgroup analyses reveal heterogeneous effects by caregiver socioeconomic status and identity (mother vs. grandmother). Findings suggest that early childhood development interventions without targeted mental health components may not provide sufficient support to improve caregiver mental health.
The Impact of Centralized Drug Procurement on Drug Prices and Utilization in China
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Asia Health Policy Program working paper # 65
The political economy of child servitude in Liberia, West Africa
ABSTRACT
Child servitude is a form of economic exploitation of children around the world. We examine this phenomenon with local specificity, in Liberia, where it represents a perennial failure of the government to protect children, who are among its most vulnerable citizens. Despite its persistence and high prevalence, child servitude has not been the focus of academic research on Liberia. This paper explores the interplay of transmuted American chattel slavery and indigenous specific Liberian cultural practices of human subjugation against a backdrop of socio-economic inequalities, and their linkages to contemporary child servitude in postwar Liberia. We discuss the impacts of child servitude on victims and recommend policy measures to protect the rights of Liberian children. If postwar Liberia is to achieve its pro-poor developmental agenda, policies must be formulated that address child servitude and other forms of exploitation against Liberian children.
Daphne Keller and ACLU File Comment to Meta Oversight Board in "UK Drill Music" Case
The Program on Platform Regulation's Daphne Keller worked with the ACLU to file this comment to the Meta Oversight Board's "UK Drill Music" case.
Graham Webster has authored a chapter in the forthcoming book from Harvard University Press, The China Questions 2: Critical Insights into US-China Relations
Association Between Mental Health and Executive Dysfunction and the Moderating Effect of Urban-Rural Subpopulation in General Adolescents from Shangrao, China: A Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study
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Objectives: To examine the association between mental health and executive dysfunction in general adolescents, and to identify whether home residence and school location would moderate that association.
Design: A population-based cross-sectional study.
Setting: A subsample of the Shanghai Children's Health, Education, and Lifestyle Evaluation-Adolescents project. 16 sampled schools in Shangrao city located in downstream Yangtze River in southeast China (December 2018).
Participants: 1895 adolescents (48.8% male) which were divided into three subpopulations: (A) adolescents who have urban hukou (ie, household registration in China) and attend urban schools (UU, n=292); (B) adolescents who have rural hukou and attend urban schools (RU, n=819) and (C) adolescents who have rural hukou and attend rural schools (RR, n=784).
Measures: The Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale-21 was used to assess adolescent mental health symptoms, and the Behaviour Rating Inventory of Executive Function (parent form) was applied to measure adolescent executive dysfunction in nature setting.
Results: Mental health symptoms were common (depression: 25.2%, anxiety: 53.0%, stress: 19.7%) in our sample, and the prevalence rates were lower among UU adolescents than those among the RR and RU, with intersubgroup differences in screen exposure time explaining most of the variance. We found the three types of symptoms were strongly associated with executive dysfunction in general adolescents. We also observed a marginal moderating effect of urban-rural subgroup on the associations: UU adolescents with depression (OR 6.74, 95% CI 3.75 to 12.12) and anxiety (OR 5.56, 95% CI 1.86 to 16.66) had a higher executive dysfunction risk when compared with RR youths with depression (OR 1.93, 95% CI 0.91 to 4.12) and anxiety (OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.33), respectively.
Conclusions: Rural adolescents experienced more mental health symptoms, whereas urban individuals with mental health problems had a higher executive dysfunction risk.
Assessing Taiwan’s Pay-for-Performance Program for Diabetes Care: A Cost–Benefit Net Value Approach
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Postnatal Mental Health, Breastfeeding Beliefs, and Breastfeeding Practices in Rural China
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Background: The importance of breastfeeding in low- and middle- income countries is well recognized, yet the importance of postnatal mental health on breastfeeding practices and beliefs in these settings has been understudied. This study investigates the associations between maternal mental health problems, breastfeeding beliefs and breastfeeding practices in rural China.
Methods: Cross-sectional data were collected in November and December 2019 from 742 mothers of infants under 6 months old in rural Sichuan Province, China. Maternal mental health (depression, anxiety, and stress symptoms) was assessed using the Depression, Anxiety, and Stress Scale (short form). Breastfeeding beliefs were assessed using the Iowa Infant Feeding Attitude Scale and Breastfeeding Self-Efficacy Scale (short form). Breastfeeding practices were assessed through a 24-h dietary recall questionnaire. Ordinary least squares regression, multiple logistic regression and heterogeneous effects analyses were used to identify associations between symptoms of mental health problems and breastfeeding outcomes.
Results: The average age of sample infants was 2.7 months. Among mothers, 13% showed symptoms of depression, 16% anxiety, and 9% stress. The prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding in the previous 24 h was 38.0%. Depression symptoms were significantly associated with breastfeeding attitude and breastfeeding self-efficacy. Anxiety and stress symptoms were significantly associated with breastfeeding self-efficacy. There were no significant associations between symptoms of mental health problems and exclusive breastfeeding. The heterogeneous effects analyses revealed that less educated mothers with symptoms of stress had lower odds of exclusive breastfeeding than educated mothers without symptoms of stress. Mothers of younger infants had higher odds of exclusive breastfeeding than the mother of older infants, regardless of depression, anxiety, or stress symptoms.
Conclusion: Symptoms of maternal mental health problems are significantly associated with breastfeeding attitude and self-efficacy; however, these symptoms are not associated with breastfeeding practices. Maternal educational level and infant age may play a role in mothers’ breastfeeding practices. To improve breastfeeding practices, interventions should employ a multi-dimensional approach that focuses on improving maternal mental well-being and considers demographic characteristics.
Internal Capabilities and External Resources of Academically Resilient Students in Rural China
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Resilience can play an important role in enabling disadvantaged students to succeed academically. However, few studies in low-resource contexts have evaluated resilience as a process (including a child’s internal capabilities and external resources, like the internal capabilities of a child’s caregiver) and as an outcome (e.g., academic achievement). In the current study, we examined the associations among students’ self-reported internal capabilities, their external resources (e.g., caregivers’ internal capabilities), and their academic resilience (operationalized as performance on a math test). The study was conducted among 1609 primary and secondary school students in rural China using the Connor–Davidson Resilience Scale (CD-RISC) to measure internal capabilities. Student CD-RISC scores were positively associated with external resources including caregiver CD-RISC scores, maternal education level, high levels of perceived social support, recreational reading, and involvement in group-based activities at school. A one-point increase in students’ CD-RISC scores was associated with a 0.01 SD increase in math score (p < 0.001), and the math scores of students whose CD-RISC scores were in the bottom quartile were 0.18 SD lower than those of their peers (p < 0.01). High levels of perceived social support and recreational reading were also associated with academic resilience in the adjusted equation. Directions for future research and policy implications are discussed.
The Know-Do Gap in Quality of Health for Chronic Non-communicable Diseases in Rural China
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Proper management of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a severe challenge to China's rural health system. This study investigates what influences the poor medical treatment of NCDs (diabetes and angina) by evaluating the “know-do gap” between provider knowledge and practice. To determine whether low levels of provider knowledge low quality of patient care is the primary constraint on the quality of NCDs diagnosis and treatment in rural China. Providers from Village Clinics (VC) and Township Health Centers (THC), and Standardized Patients (SP) were selected by a multi-stage random sampling method. Clinical vignettes were administered to 306 providers from 103 VCs and 50 THCs in rural Sichuan Province. SPs presented diabetes symptoms completed 97 interactions with providers in 46 VCs and 51 THCs; SPs presented angina symptoms completed 100 interactions with providers in 50 VCs and 50 THCs. Process quality, diagnosis quality, and treatment quality were assessed against national standards for diabetes and angina. Two-tailed T-tests and tests of proportions for continuous outcomes and tests of proportions for binary dependent variables were used to compare vignette and SP results. Differences between vignette and SP data calculated the know-do gap. Regression analyses were used to examine the providers/facility characteristics and knowledge/practice associations. THC providers demonstrated significantly more knowledge in vignettes and better practices in SP visits than VC providers. However, levels of knowledge were low overall: 48.2% of THC providers and 28.2% of VC providers properly diagnosed type 2 diabetes, while 23.8% of THC providers and 14.7% of VC providers properly diagnosed angina. With SPs, 2.1% of THC providers and 6.8% of VC providers correctly diagnosed type 2 diabetes; 25.5% of THC providers and 12.8% of VC providers correctly diagnosed angina. There were significant know-do gaps in diagnosis process quality, diagnosis quality, and treatment quality for diabetes (p < 0.01), and in diagnosis process quality (p < 0.05) and treatment quality for angina (p < 0.01). Providers in rural China display low levels of knowledge when treating diabetes and angina. Despite low knowledge, evidence of the know-do gap indicates that low-quality healthcare is the primary constraint on the quality of NCD diagnosis and treatment in rural China. Our research findings provide a new perspective for the evaluation of the medical quality and a technical basis for the development of new standardized cases in the future.
A chapter in The China Questions 2: Critical Insights into US-China Relations, edited by Maria Adele Carrai, Jennifer Rudolph, and Michael Szonyi.
Behavioral Strengths and Difficulties and Their Associations with Academic Performance in Math among Rural Youth in China
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Behavioral strengths and difficulties among children and adolescents may be significantly associated with their academic performance; however, the evidence on this issue for rural youth in developing contexts is limited. This study explored the prevalence and correlates of mental health from three specific dimensions—internalizing problems, externalizing problems, and prosocial behavior—measured by the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ), and the association of these dimensions with academic performance in math among a sample of 1500 students in rural China. Our findings indicated that students in rural China had worse behavioral difficulties and poorer prosocial skills when compared to most past studies conducted inside and outside of China. In addition, total difficulties and prosocial scores on the SDQ were significantly associated with student math test scores, as students whose externalizing, internalizing, and prosocial scores were in the abnormal range scored lower in math by 0.35 SD, 0.23 SD, and 0.33 SD, respectively. The results add to the growing body of empirical evidence related to the links between social environment, mental health, and academic performance in developing countries, highlighting the importance of students’ mental health for their academic performance, and of understanding risk factors in the social environment among rural youth in developing countries.
Labor conflict within foreign, domestic, and Chinese-owned manufacturing firms in Ethiopia
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A large firm survey shows that labor conflicts in Ethiopia are more frequent in foreign-owned firms, especially those that are Chinese-owned. Foreign firms hire similarly educated and experienced workers, while offering similar salaries and benefits. We draw on case studies to explore reasons why foreign, and especially Chinese-owned firms, face exceptional levels of labor conflict. Misaligned perceptions about the role of local labor laws may be an important driver of conflict.