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Introduction


Generative AI has become an incredibly attractive and widespread tool for people across the world. Alongside its rapid growth, AI tools present a host of ethical challenges relating to consent, security, and privacy, among others. As Generative AI has been spearheaded primarily by large technology companies, these ethical challenges — especially as viewed from the vantage point of ordinary people — risk being overlooked for the sake of market competition and profit. What is needed, therefore, is a deeper understanding of and attention to how ordinary people perceive AI, including its costs and benefits.

The Meta Community Forum Results Analysis, authored by Samuel Chang, James S. Fishkin, Ricky Hernandez Marquez, Ayushi Kadakia, Alice Siu, and Robert Taylor, aims to address some of these challenges. A partnership between CDDRL’s Deliberative Democracy Lab and Meta, the forum enables participants to learn about and collectively reflect on AI. The impulse behind deliberative democracy is straightforward: people affected by some policy or program should have the right to communicate about its contents and to understand the reasons for its adoption. As Generative AI and the companies that produce it become increasingly powerful, democratic input becomes even more essential to ensure their accountability. 

Motivation & Takeaways


In October 2024, the third Meta Community Forum took place. Its importance derives from the advancements in Generative AI since October 2023, when the last round of deliberations was held. One such advancement is the move beyond AI chatbots to AI agents, which can solve more complex tasks and adapt in real-time to improve responses. A second advancement is that AI has become multimodal, moving beyond the generation of text and into images, video, and audio. These advancements raise new questions and challenges. As such, the third forum provided participants with the opportunity to deliberate on a range of policy proposals, organized around two key themes: how AI agents should interact with users and how they should provide proactive and personalized experiences for them.

To summarize some of the forum’s core findings: the majority of participants value transparency and consent in their interactions with AI agents as well as the security and privacy of their data. In turn, they are less comfortable with agents autonomously completing tasks if this is not transparent to them. Participants have a positive outlook on AI agents but want to have control over their interactions. Regarding the deliberations themselves, participants rated the forum highly and felt that it exposed them to alternative perspectives. The deliberators wanted to learn more about AI for themselves, which was evidenced by their increased use of these tools after the deliberations. Future reports will explore the reasoning and arguments that they used while deliberating.
 


 

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Map of where participants hailed from.


The participants of this Community Forum were representative samples of the general population from five countries - Turkey, Saudi Arabia, India, Nigeria, and South Africa. Participants from each country deliberated separately in English, Hindi, Turkish, or Arabic.



Methodology & Data


The deliberations involved around 900 participants from five countries: India, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Turkey. Participants varied in terms of age, gender, education, and urbanicity. Because the deliberative groups were recruited independently, the forum can be seen as five independent deliberations. Deliberations alternated between small group discussions and ‘plenary sessions,’ where experts answered questions drawn from the small groups. There were around 1000 participants in the control group, who did pre- and post-surveys, but without deliberating. The participant sample was representative with respect to gender, while the treatment and control groups were balanced on demography as well as on their attitudes toward AI. Before deliberating on the proposals, participants were presented with background materials as well as a list of costs and benefits to consider.

In terms of the survey data, large majorities of participants had previously used AI. There was a statistically significant increase in these proportions after the forum. For example, in Turkey, usage rates increased from nearly 70% to 84%. In several countries, there were large increases in participants’ sense of AI’s positive benefits after deliberating, as well as a statistically significant increase in their interest. The deliberations changed participants’ opinions about a host of claims; for example, “people will feel less lonely with AI” and “more proactive [agents] are intrusive” lost approval whereas “AI agents’ capability to increase efficiency…is saving many companies a lot of time and resources” and “AI agents are helping people become more creative” gained approval. After deliberating, participants demonstrated an improved understanding of some factual aspects of AI, although the more technical aspects of this remain challenging. One example here is AI hallucinations, or rather, the generation of false or nonsensical outputs, usually because of flawed training data.
 


 

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Chart: How should AI agents remember users' past behaviors or preferences? Percentage in favor


Proposals


Participants deliberated on nineteen policy proposals. To summarize these briefly: In terms of whether and how AI remembers users’ past behaviors and preferences, participants preferred proposals that allowed users to make active choices, as opposed to this being a default setting or only being asked once. They also preferred being reminded about the ability of AI agents to personalize their experience, as well as agents being transparent with users about the tasks they complete. Participants preferred that users be educated on AI before using it, as well as being informed when AI is picking up on certain emotional cues and responding in “human-like” ways. They also preferred proposals whereby AI would ask clarifying questions before generating output. Finally, when it comes to agents helping users with real-life relationships, this was seen as more permissible when the other person was informed. Across the proposals, gender was neither a significant nor consistent determinant of how they were rated. Ultimately, the Meta Community Forum offers a model for how informed, public communication can shape AI and the ethical challenges it raises.

*Research-in-Brief prepared by Adam Fefer.

 
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This paper examines the political climate in El Salvador under President Nayib Bukele, with a particular focus on his efforts to consolidate power and the implications for democracy. It discusses the constitutional limitations on presidential authority as outlined in El Salvador's constitution, specifically addressing the removal of Supreme Court judges and the militarization of society. The paper highlights the pushback from civil society organizations, particularly through the efforts of legislator Claudia Ortiz, who raises concerns about the legality and democratic implications of Bukele's actions. The potential consequences for democratic governance and civil rights amid the current regime's popularity and alliances within government are critically analyzed, posing questions about the future of democratic integrity in El Salvador.

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In 2023, Guatemala's political landscape experienced a significant transformation with the election of President Bernardo Arevalo, a reformist determined to combat deep-seated corruption affecting the nation. Arevalo's presidency surfaced amid considerable public discontent with entrenched corruption, culminating in a challenge regarding the actions to be taken against Attorney General María Consuelo Porras, who was accused of obstructing justice. As he navigated the complexities of a divided political environment, Arevalo faced pressures from both the conservative establishment and civil society groups advocating for anti-corruption reforms. Guatemala's historical struggles with corruption, influenced by a legacy of civil war and ineffective political institutions, further complicated his efforts. The disbandment of the International Commission Against Impunity in 2019 and the pervasive influence of conservative elites posed significant barriers to his mandate. The text explores the intricate dynamics influencing Arevalo's decision-making process, highlighting the implications of his choices on Guatemala's future governance and the ongoing pursuit of democratic integrity in a challenging political context. Options available to Arevalo include immediate action against Porras, delayed engagement, or inaction, each presenting distinct risks and potential impacts on his reform agenda and the country’s democratic institutions.

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Over the weekend of June 5-9, a representative sample of registered Pennsylvania voters gathered in Philadelphia to deliberate in depth about issues facing the state and the nation. When first contacted, they answered an extensive questionnaire about policy proposals from across the political spectrum that could possibly address key issues facing the state and the nation. At the end of the weekend they completed the same questionnaire. 175 voters from across the state were successfully recruited to participate in the discussions. Another 502 were assigned to a control group that completed the same questionnaires over the same period, but did not deliberate. The process is called Deliberative Polling® and followed the format of 160 previous projects around the world. Like the other America in One Room events, this experiment was sponsored and convened by Helena, a global problem solving organization working with the Deliberative Democracy Lab at Stanford University, and Public Opinion Strategies, a leading public opinion research firm that conducted the recruitment and selection of the samples and administered the survey questionnaires.

What would the voters of Pennsylvania really think about the issues if they discussed them in depth in a civil and evidence-based environment for a long weekend? Summary results are sketched below.

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America in One Room: Pennsylvania, a Deliberative Poll coordinated by global problem-solving organization Helena and the Deliberative Democracy Lab at Stanford University, today announced results revealing what Pennsylvania voters really think about pressing local and national issues ranging from the state of democracy and elections, to immigration, housing, and foreign affairs.

The landmark Deliberative Polling® experiment gathered a representative sample of 175 registered Pennsylvania voters for a weekend of civic engagement and civil discourse in Philadelphia. The participants answered a questionnaire about 65 policy proposals across domestic and foreign issue areas before and after engaging in deep deliberation on the topics. The deliberations included small group discussions, question-and-answer sessions with bipartisan and nonpartisan issue experts, and plenary sessions featuring leading state and federal policymakers and experts from both sides of the aisle.

The Deliberative Polling® process at America in One Room goes beyond snapshot opinions to reveal an authentic will of the people,  giving policymakers access to data about what voters actually think when given balanced information and the opportunity for meaningful discussion. Policymakers who engage with the data can craft policies that truly reflect what constituents want based on an understanding of the tradeoffs and stakes involved. At America in One Room: Pennsylvania, Speaker of the House Joanna McClinton committed to leveraging data related to voting proposals as she works to advance election reform policy in the commonwealth.

“America in One Room is designed to help policymakers understand the true ‘will of the people,’ said Henry Elkus, founder and CEO of Helena, a global problem-solving organization and co-creator of America in One Room. “What happened over four days in Pennsylvania was a deeply practical demonstration of democracy in action, both for Pennsylvania and national legislators to implement policy. Helena will continue working toward a future where deliberative democracy can play a bigger and bigger role in shaping decision-making in the US and abroad.”
 


What happened over four days in Pennsylvania was a deeply practical demonstration of democracy in action, both for Pennsylvania and national legislators to implement policy.
Henry Elkus
Founder and CEO, Helena


The results show dramatic opinion shifts and notable consensus-building across party lines. Most notably, dissatisfaction with American democracy dropped 21 points overall—from 75% to 54%—with Republicans, Democrats, and independents all showing significant improvement in democratic confidence at the end of the weekend.

"When Pennsylvanians were given the space for informed, civil conversation, they consistently depolarized on issues that dominate cable news narratives as hopeless partisan battles," said James Fishkin, Director of Stanford's Deliberative Democracy Lab. "This experiment proves that America's political divisions and opinions are not as intractable as they might seem. Voters, when presented with balanced information and the opportunity to listen to one another, emerged with considered judgments about what needed to be done as well as greater respect for those they disagree with. The results offer a look at what really matters to voters when they think in depth about the issues. In my view, it also offers an inspiring picture of how democracy could actually work better.”
 


This experiment proves that America's political divisions and opinions are not as intractable as they might seem. Voters emerged with considered judgments about what needed to be done as well as greater respect for those they disagree with.
James Fishkin
Director, Deliberative Democracy Lab


Key findings:
 

  • Immigration: Support for increasing visas for low-skilled workers doubled from 25% to 50%, with Democrats moving from 41% to 69% support and Republicans increasing from 9% to 30%. State-level DACA protections gained significant Republican backing, rising from 18% to 38%.
  • Voting Rights: Support for broad voter enfranchisement jumped to 96% (up from 83%), with Republicans increasing their support by 22 points. Democrats increased their support for voter ID requirements, increasing from 48% to 57%.
  • Election Integrity: An overwhelming majority of participants supported increases in election integrity, with 77% supporting random ballot audits, and 87% supporting criminal penalties for voter intimidation.
  • Healthcare: Rural healthcare initiatives achieved near-unanimous support, with 94% backing loan forgiveness for healthcare workers in underserved areas and 88% supporting tax credits for rural facilities.
  • Foreign policy: Support for providing military support to Taiwan in case of Chinese invasion doubled from 35% to 69%, with massive bipartisan increases among both Democrats (40-point jump) and Republicans (30-point jump).
  • Education: While trade school subsidies gained overwhelming support (81%), free college tuition support dropped from 59% to 47% as participants weighed budget realities.
  • Transformed relationships & Understanding: Perhaps most significantly, 91% of participants reported respecting opposing political viewpoints (up from 72%) following their experience at America in One Room: Pennsylvania and 90% expressed willingness to compromise with political opponents (up from 80%). As a whole, 97% of participants reported that A1R: PA was valuable in helping them clarify their positions on key public policy issues debated.


America in One Room: Pennsylvania is the fifth Deliberative Polling® event organized by Helena in collaboration with Stanford’s Deliberative Democracy Lab. Public Opinion Strategies conducted outreach, selected the representative samples, and administered the questionnaires.

Full results and executive summary are available below:

About America in One Room:
America in One Room inspires communities to ignite civic engagement, fostering collaborative solutions for their most pressing challenges. Since 2019, America in One Room has conducted groundbreaking Deliberative Polling® experiments across the country.

About Helena:
Helena is a global problem-solving organization that seeks to implement solutions to critical societal challenges through nonprofit, for-profit, and legislative actions. Helena’s nonprofit projects include America in One Room, which garnered the attention of President Barack Obama and The New York TimesBiosecurity in the Age of AI, which focuses on risks emerging at the intersection of AI and biotechnology; and The COVID Project, which supplied tens of millions of units of medical supplies and personal protective equipment to frontline responders during the COVID-19 pandemic. Since its founding in 2020, Helena Special Investments has supported innovations in grid-scale energy storage (Energy Vault), AI controls to dramatically reduce energy consumption in industrial processes (Phaidra); and an innovation in Digital Twin technology enabling chronic disease reversals (Twin Health), among others. Helena operates its projects alongside a diverse group of multidisciplinary leaders called Helena members.

About the Deliberative Democracy Lab at Stanford University:
The Deliberative Democracy Lab (formerly the Center for Deliberative Democracy), housed within the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University, is devoted to research about democracy and public opinion obtained through Deliberative Polling®

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America in One Room: The Youth Vote
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Historic America in One Room Deliberative Poll Releases Data on First-Time Voters' Political Attitudes Ahead of Presidential Election

Innovative project brings together first-ever representative sample of first-time voters from across the country to debate the key issues of our time.
Historic America in One Room Deliberative Poll Releases Data on First-Time Voters' Political Attitudes Ahead of Presidential Election
A voter casts their ballot in the Kentucky Primary Elections at Central High School on May 16, 2023 in Louisville, Kentucky.
Q&As

New National Deliberative Poll Shows Bipartisan Support for Polarizing Issues Affecting American Democracy

"America in One Room: Democratic Reform" polled participants before and after deliberation to gauge their opinions on democratic reform initiatives, including voter access and voting protections, non-partisan election administration, protecting against election interference, Supreme Court reform, and more. The results show many significant changes toward bipartisan agreement, even on the most contentious issues.
New National Deliberative Poll Shows Bipartisan Support for Polarizing Issues Affecting American Democracy
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America in One Room: Pennsylvania
America in One Room: Pennsylvania explored what voters really think about pressing local and national issues, ranging from the state of democracy and elections to immigration, housing, and foreign affairs.
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America in One Room: Pennsylvania brings together a representative sample of registered Pennsylvania voters for a statewide Deliberative Poll in this crucial swing state, revealing surprising common ground and public opinion shifts on issues from immigration to healthcare to democratic reform.

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The third installment of the Sustainable Democracy Roundtable is held in Seoul, South Korea on June 18-19, 2025 (in Korea Time). Jointly hosted by APARC and the CHEY Institute of Advanced Studies, the Roundtable is meant to foster conversations among scholars of all ranks of seniority, research backgrounds, and regional experience to evaluate current trends facing liberal democracy worldwide. This year’s Roundtable will particularly focus on identifying actionable solutions and policy recommendations. Scholars will meet in closed door scholarly sessions on the first day of the conference and, alongside practitioners and politicians, participate in a public session at the Korean National Assembly to share their thoughts and foster dialogue with both the public and the government.

Following the Roundtable, a conference report will be published and accessible through this page.

Day 1: Invitation-only closed roundtable

09:00-09:15    Registration

09:15-09:30    Opening Remarks

  • Kim Yoosuk, President of Chey Institute of Advanced Studies

  • Gi-Wook Shin, Director of Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University

09:30-11:30     Session 1: Fragility and Resilience of Korean Democracy

Moderator: Choi Byung-il 

Presenters: Kim Sunhyuk, Song Jiyeoun, Kim Gidong, Yee Jaeyeol

Recent political developments in South Korea—the imposition of martial law, prolonged impeachment proceedings, and a subsequent early presidential election—have placed the strength and stability of its political system under intense scrutiny. South Korea stands as one of the few nations that have successfully established democracy through a relatively short yet volatile history following its independence. Although it has once again proven its resilience, the recent and recurring turbulence also exposed underlying vulnerabilities. Political polarization, judicialization of politics, institutional friction, and widespread public distrust continue to challenge democratic governance. This session will explore both the strengths and shortcomings of Korean democracy, analyzing whether recent crises have genuinely strengthened the democratic norms and institutions or have exposed deeper systemic flaws.

  • What key factors have contributed to the resilience of South Korean democracy amidst recent political crises?

  • What role has civil society played in reinforcing democratic norms during times of political instability?

  • In what ways do institutional shortcomings and political polarization contribute to public distrust and democratic vulnerabilities?

  • How can South Korea leverage its recent experiences to strengthen democratic processes and institutional accountability moving forward? Identify reforms measures that can be most effective in these endeavors.

12:00-13:00    Lunch

13:00-15:00    Session 2: Democracy in the U.S. and the World

Moderator: Paul Chang

Presenters: Larry Diamond, Kiyoteru Tsutsui, Didi Kuo

This panel will focus on the challenges facing liberal democracy in the United States and other parts of the world. Scholars will analyze the rise of populism and authoritarian tendencies, particularly in the U.S. under Donald Trump, whose actions have posed significant challenges to democratic norms and institutions. Similar developments in other countries will also be examined to draw broader lessons about the global state of democracy, including Korea.

  • How do the recent experiences of democratic backsliding in the United States compare with those in other advanced democracies? What structural or cultural factors make some democracies more vulnerable than others?

  • How has Trump reshaped the global perception of American democracy, and what implications does this have for the U.S. as a model or promoter of democratic governance abroad?

  • Can international institutions and norms meaningfully counter domestic democratic erosion, or is democracy ultimately a nationally determined project?

  • What lessons can be drawn from non-Western democracies in sustaining democratic legitimacy and civic trust amid rising authoritarian pressures?

15:00-15:30    Break

15:30-17:30    Session 3: Actionable Solutions for Sustaining Democracy

Moderator: Gi-Wook Shin

Presenters: Frank Fukuyama, Lee Sook Jong, Ahn Byongjin

The final panel of Day 1 will focus on identifying actionable solutions to strengthen democratic institutions and resilience. Discussions will center on policy recommendations, civic engagement strategies, and international collaborations to address the current and future threats to democracy worldwide. The panel will also explore if Korea can play any role in international efforts to strengthen liberal democracy.

  • What are the most effective policy reforms that democratic governments can pursue today to build institutional resilience against authoritarian threats?

  • How can civil society organizations be better supported, domestically and transnationally, to serve as long-term stewards of democracy?

  • What role should education and civic (and media) literacy play in revitalizing democratic culture, particularly among younger generations?

  • What strategies have proven most effective in rebuilding public trust in democratic institutions, especially in contexts of recent democratic crises or corruption scandals?

This event is held in Seoul, Korea.

Conference on June 17 (June 18 in Korea Time) is an invitation-only event.
Conference on June 18 (June 19 in Korea Time) is a public session held at the National Assembly Member Office Building.

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This essay analyzes Turkey’s 2024 local elections as a case of democratic resilience under authoritarian rule. Despite national setbacks, the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) achieved significant municipal victories through decentralized strategies, grassroots engagement, and pragmatic candidate selection. These wins challenged Erdoğan’s dominance and disrupted regime patronage networks, prompting intensified state repression, including the 19 March 2025 arrest of Istanbul mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu. Drawing on field research from key districts, the authors highlight how localized, service-oriented governance and inclusive coalitions can revive opposition credibility. However, sustaining these gains depends on navigating internal pressures and regime crackdowns. Turkey’s experience offers broader lessons for opposition movements confronting hybrid authoritarian systems.

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Journal of Democracy
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Ayça Alemdaroğlu
Aytuğ Şaşmaz
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Since the early 2000s, the world has witnessed a deepening democratic recession, and Asia is no exception. Compromised political freedom, constitutionalism and competitiveness characterise many democratic states across the region, while authoritarian states remain deeply entrenched. Still, there are glimmers of hope, as enduring public support for democratic ideals signals that even seemingly stable autocracies may not be immune to sudden change.

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Larry Diamond
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In our modern world of propaganda, social media enclaves, misinformation, and manipulation, the connection between 'the will of the people' and political action has broken down, political divisions are becoming increasingly intractable, and democracies are growing ever more ungovernable. Democracy is in crisis.

Can Deliberation Cure the Ills of Democracy? book cover

In Can Deliberation Cure the Ills of Democracy?, James S. Fishkin argues that deliberative democracy can have surprisingly positive effects on all of these problems and charts a unique path to fixing them with his method of Deliberative Polling. After decades of applying and perfecting the methods of deliberative democracy in countries all over the world, this book synthesizes the results of 150 applications and shows how the method can be applied to resolve many of democracy's seemingly intractable challenges. It can clarify the public will and depolarize our divisions. It can be applied to major national and local decisions, it can spread in schools, it can be used by corporations, it can make for more meaningful ballot propositions, it can help reform the primary system, it can scale with technology, and most importantly, it can help reform electoral democracy, help preserve the guardrails that protect the electoral process, and provide key policy inputs in almost every contested issue area from climate change to the rights of minorities.

Fishkin demonstrates that deliberative democracy is a practical solution if applied widely and lays out a vision for how to combine elections with deliberation to build a more deliberative society, one that cures our extreme partisanship and leads to substantive dialogues that foster mutual respect and more engaged voters. Deliberation provides a story of thoughtful empowerment and democratic reform, strengthening but not replacing our current institutions.

Praise & Reviews


"In this excellent book, James Fishkin brilliantly illuminates the essence of what democracy is and what it needs to survive. At this moment in world history, we are all lucky to have the benefit of Fishkin's wisdom." -Michael Beschloss, author of Presidents of War

"Drawing on decades of pioneering research and real-world application, Fishkin reveals how inclusive deliberation builds trust, bridges divides, and revitalizes civic engagement. This is more than a vision; it's a compelling roadmap for how guided, balanced dialogue can unlock collective wisdom, reimagine our institutions, and restore public faith in a shared future." -Audrey Tang, Taiwan's First Digital Minister

"Terrific, valuable, inspired, and inspiring. A massive contribution to democratic theory and democratic practice." -Cass R. Sunstein, Robert Walmsley University Professor, Harvard University, and author of Climate Justice

"No scholar has more consistently offered us hope about a better way to realize the potential of democracy. This book crystallizes a career of critical work and maps a strategy for rediscovering what democracy could be. Deliberation, when properly implemented, can inform the public, foster consensus, and enhance democratic legitimacy, while ensuring that all voices are heard equally. These have always been the ideals of democracy. Fishkin again offers a plan to make them real." -Lawrence Lessig, Roy L. Furman Professor of Law and Leadership, Harvard Law School

"Despite the worldwide rise of demagogic dictatorship, Fishkin's book offers a realistic pathway to the reinvigoration of democratic life in the twenty-first century. As he shows, constitutional reform in a host of countries has already been profoundly shaped by the concrete studies of citizen deliberation organized by Stanford under his leadership. Even more importantly, he marks out the very different ways these studies can inspire future reform efforts to preserve the foundations of Enlightenment democracy against demagogic assault." -Bruce A. Ackerman, Sterling Professor of Law and Political Science, Yale University

"A powerful and masterful vision of democracy in which deliberative institutions supplement the beleaguered institutions of competitive democracy and support a deliberative society. Drawing on decades of evidence from Deliberative Polling, Fishkin shows the potential of representative deliberative processes for de-polarizing publics, representing new voices, addressing social justice issues, and providing new sources of legitimacy for democracy. Urgent, timely, and essential reading for an era in which the democratic project seems to be stalled or backsliding." -Mark E. Warren, University of British Columbia and President of the American Political Science Association, 2023-2024

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This commentary was first published in the Journal of Democracy.



Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party won South Korea’s June 3 presidential election with 49.4 percent of the vote. The outcome was widely anticipated, given a political climate that strongly favored the liberal camp in the aftermath of the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol. Still, Lee’s victory was not as overwhelming as some might have expected. With 99.6 percent of the votes tallied, the two main conservative candidates — Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok — together garnered a slightly higher combined vote share of 49.5 percent (41.2 percent and 8.3 percent, respectively) Why, then, did Korean voters ultimately choose Lee Jae-myung but with a measured endorsement rather than a landslide victory, and what does it mean for Korean democracy?

This election followed a period of intense political turmoil that began with President Yoon’s declaration of martial law on December 3 of last year and his impeachment just two months ago. While the election results were expected, they still raise important questions about the future of Korean democracy. Do the last six months reflect the resilience of democratic institutions — capable of self-correction through legal and electoral processes — or, have these events exposed the fragility of Korea’s democracy, with its deep political divisions and public distrust in leadership?

In many ways, the answer is both. Civic engagement and a peaceful transfer of power during such a challenging episode suggest a strong democratic foundation. At the same time, the election outcome still shows a highly polarized electorate, underscoring the hurdles that lie ahead for Korean society and politics.

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2017 vs. 2025


This was the second time in a decade that Korea held a snap presidential election. The first occurred eight years ago, following the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye. In this regard, Koreans have grown familiar with the impeachment process and snap elections. In both instances, the impeached presidents — Park in 2017 and Yoon in 2025 — were conservatives, and both elections resulted in liberal victories, with Moon Jae-in (2017–22) and now Lee Jae-myung taking office.

The 2025 election, however, differs significantly from the 2017 contest, with important implications for Korean democracy.

First, the impeachment process this time was far more divisive. In 2017, liberal groups mobilized millions in mass protests demanding Park’s removal, and conservatives largely accepted the outcome without major resistance. In contrast, Yoon’s impeachment was extremely contentious, sparking counterprotests from conservative groups. Waving “Stop the Steal” signs, far-right movements gained strength, determined not to see a repeat of 2017, which not only led to defeat at the polls but also a brutal campaign of political retribution by the ensuing liberal government.

Second, this polarization profoundly influenced voting behavior. Even conservatives who criticized Yoon’s declaration of martial law ultimately rallied behind Kim, a candidate less critical of the controversial order. The left-right political divide had deepened during the Moon and Yoon administrations. In 2017, a centrist candidate like Ahn Cheol-soo could attract more than 20 percent of the vote. In 2025, however, such space for a centrist voice has all but vanished. The election became a fierce contest between liberals (Lee Jae-myung) and conservatives (Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok), reflecting the polarized electorate.

Third, the tense political atmosphere left little room for substantive policy debate. While important topics including artificial intelligence, energy, climate change, social reconciliation, and foreign policy were included in their campaign pledges, discussions around these issues remained superficial at best. Instead, the campaign was dominated by harsh personal attacks and negative rhetoric from all sides.

If Lee uses his consolidated executive and congressional power to settle political scores, the result will only deepen social divisions and facilitate democratic backsliding.
Gi-Wook Shin

Reformer or Strongman?


Given that this was a snap election, the new administration will assume office immediately on June 4 without the usual transition period. What can we expect from the new leader, particularly regarding Korea’s democratic future?

Lee’s appeal lies in his image as a pragmatic reformer, someone who speaks to economic struggles and social inequalities facing ordinary Koreans. His personal story itself resonates deeply: Born into poverty, he overcame significant hardship to become a human-rights lawyer, then rose through the political ranks as mayor of Seongnam, a city near Seoul, and later as governor of Gyeonggi Province, the most populous province in the country, before taking the Democratic Party leadership. This dramatic personal and political ascent has inspired many Korean citizens.

Yet Lee’s candidacy has not been without controversy. He remains under multiple criminal investigations and court trials related to charges of bribery, corruption, and breaking election laws, and his often-combative style has created the perception of a deeply polarizing figure. Many conservatives view Lee as a radical populist who shows insufficient regard for democratic norms and institutional checks.

Given the mixed perception and expectation surrounding President Lee, what kind of leadership can we expect from his administration? Two possible paths seem to lie ahead for the new leader still relatively unknown to the outside world: one resembling the approach of former president Moon Jae-in, and the other inspired by the legacy of Korea’s first liberal president, Kim Dae-jung (1998–2003). The direction Lee chooses will have major implications for the future of Korean democracy.

Lee may follow in the footsteps of Moon Jae-in, leading a campaign of political retribution that pushes Korea toward illiberal democracy. Lee has personal reasons for political resentment: He was aggressively investigated by the Yoon administration and still faces ongoing legal challenges. He has spoken publicly about the need to root out what he calls “forces of insurrection,” raising concerns that he might pursue a hardline campaign similar to Moon’s controversial efforts to “eradicate deep-rooted evils.”

Lee’s party has also pledged to advance judicial reforms that could weaken the Supreme Court, which on May 1 overturned an earlier acquittal by the Seoul High Court of Lee’s criminal charge of election-law violation. With his party now holding a parliamentary majority, traditional checks and balances could be on the line. If Lee uses his consolidated executive and congressional power to settle political scores, the result will only deepen social divisions and facilitate democratic backsliding. In such a scenario, he risks being viewed in Korea and elsewhere as yet another strongman leader in a world where such figures have been on the rise.

Alternatively, Lee could chart a course akin to that of former president Kim Dae-jung, who is widely considered a respected statesman and reformer. Kim overcame intense personal hardship, including a death sentence under a military regime, and yet chose reconciliation over revenge when he took power. He formed a coalition with conservative leader Kim Jong-pil and guided the country through the Asian financial crisis with a focus on national unity and pragmatic reform. Unlike Moon, who turned over power to the conservatives after five years, Kim effectively enabled a liberal succession.

Lee, often viewed as less ideological and more pragmatic than Moon, could take a similar path — one centered on cooperation, healing, and practical solutions. This possibility appears plausible given that his key advisors on both domestic and foreign affairs are not cut from the same cloth as Moon’s inner circle. By emulating Kim’s legacy, Lee could rise above political divides and earn broad national and international respect.

Ultimately, this election has been both a stress test and a reaffirmation of Korea’s democratic resilience. It highlights the urgent need for democratic renewal, while demonstrating that, even in times of deep political division, democratic institutions and norms can endure.
Gi-Wook Shin

What Lies Ahead?


The political drama of the last six months ended with this election, but its impact on Korea’s democracy will be enduring. On one hand, the peaceful resolution of a snap election, especially following the highly contentious impeachment process, demonstrates the strength and resilience of Korean democratic institutions. Voters remained highly engaged (turnout was 79.4 percent, the highest since 1997), and the electoral process held firm under pressure.

On the other hand, the deep partisan divides expose fissures in Korea’s democratic fabric. Mistrust in political elites, a divided society, and a highly polarized media environment often dominated by sensationalism continue to threaten constructive democratic dialogue. Moreover, the rise of populist rhetoric on both the left and right reflects an electorate increasingly driven by emotional appeals or identity politics rather than substantive policy debate or national vision. Without a concerted effort by both liberals and conservatives toward reconciliation, political polarization is likely to deepen. Bridging that divide will be one of the most critical and difficult tasks for Korean democracy.

Despite his election victory, Lee faces a challenging road ahead, both personally and politically. Since the Supreme Court overturned Lee’s acquittal of violating election law, the case is set to go back to the Seoul High Court for retrial on June 18. While the final ruling is likely to be delayed until after his term ends, the case may continue to cast a shadow over his integrity and credibility as the country’s top leader.

Lee also has the daunting task of delivering the institutional reforms promised during his campaign. In particular, he needs to follow up on his pledge to replace the current single five-year presidential term with a four-year term allowing for a subsequent reelection. This change could bring political stability, as presidents would have an incentive to perform well during their first term to secure a second one. Furthermore, a potential eight-year presidency would provide more time to implement long-term policies. Past presidents have made similar promises, but none have succeeded in realizing them. It remains to be seen whether Lee’s administration can rise above partisan politics and rebuild public trust through meaningful reforms.

Ultimately, this election has been both a stress test and a reaffirmation of Korea’s democratic resilience. It highlights the urgent need for democratic renewal, while demonstrating that, even in times of deep political division, democratic institutions and norms can endure. This lesson holds global relevance, particularly for the United States, where democracy is also being put to the test.



Gi-Wook Shin's Election Analysis in the Media


Lee Jae-myung begins his road to power. Can he fulfill his promises amid numerous challenges?
Caixin Media, June 6 (Chinese, subscription) quoted)

He survived a knife attack, stormed Parliament, and campaigned in a bulletproof vest. Now he's going to heal a country.
Politiken, June 4 (Danish, subscription) (quoted)

Lee Poised for Decisive Win in South Korea's Snap Election
AFP, June 3 (quoted)

New South Korean President Lee Takes Power After Resounding Election Win
AFP, June 3 (quoted)

The Challenges Facing South Korea's New Leader Lee
AFP, June 3 (quoted) 

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Woohae Cho/ Getty Images
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South Koreans have elected Lee Jae-myung president. Will he be a pragmatic democratic reformer? Or will he continue the polarizing political warfare of recent South Korean leaders?

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