Race and the Pursuit of Multiracial Democracy

Hakeem Jefferson kicked off the discussion with a presentation on race's role in American politics, especially during the 2024 election season. He argued against perspectives that minimize the salience of this issue, noting that the January 6 insurrection was a stark example of the influence of White identity politics on electoral dynamics. Jefferson, an assistant professor of political science and a CDDRL affiliated faculty, underscored the continued prevalence of racial appeals and overt racism in political messaging, which significantly affects public perception and voter behavior. He also examined Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign, emphasizing the complexities of identity politics and the challenges in representing diverse coalitions.

In his closing remarks, Jefferson tackled the narrative surrounding Black male voters’ declining support, advocating for a nuanced understanding of political behavior within this demographic. He emphasized that the United States is at a crossroads, needing to embrace the potential for a multiracial democracy to avoid losing its democratic identity.

The Paradox of Political Parties

Didi Kuo, a Center Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), explored the challenges facing political parties in the United States. While parties seem strong due to the current state of polarization and surge in fundraising, they struggle with selecting candidates and managing extremist views, which has contributed to a decline in public trust. Historically, political parties acted as intermediaries, linking societal demands to political representation. However, the decline in support for mainstream parties and the rise of anti-system challengers reveal a troubling gap in responsiveness to critical issues.

Kuo noted that parties are transforming from grassroots organizations into professional campaign entities focused on fundraising, weakening their ties to the public, especially working-class voters. She mentioned that reforms like nonpartisan primaries reflect widespread dissatisfaction with how parties choose candidates. As nonparty actors assume traditional party functions, the future dynamics of political parties remain uncertain. Kuo called for parties to rebuild trust and re-engage with constituents to maintain their vital role in democracy.

Challenging Assumptions of Political Polarization

Professor of Political Science Jonathan Rodden challenged the prevailing belief that American political parties have become more homogenous. He argued that both the Democratic and Republican parties are becoming more diverse, complicating the narrative of ideological sameness. While contemporary politics often focuses on a single dimension of conflict, Rodden posited that American parties are increasingly varied in race, education, religion, and income.

Rodden explained that this growing diversity contributes to rising affective polarization, where animosity toward the opposing party intensifies. With party members holding a broader range of opinions, leaders face challenges in proposing policies that appeal to all constituents. This often leads to strategies that demonize the opposing party by emphasizing its extreme members, further deepening voter divides. Rodden's analysis illustrates that both parties are evolving into coalitions with diverse interests, inviting a reevaluation of political polarization in the U.S. 

Illiberal Populism: Patterns of Success and Failure

Putting the United States in comparative perspective, Professor of Political Science Anna Grzymala-Busse examined illiberal populism in Europe, focusing on why some populist leaders lose power despite initial successes. She defined illiberal populism as framing elites as corrupt while promoting an exclusivist concept of "the people." While populists can mobilize voter dissatisfaction, recent electoral defeats in Poland and the Czech Republic and anticipated losses in France highlight the vulnerabilities of such movements.

Grzymala-Busse, a senior fellow at FSI, where she serves as the director of The Europe Center, identified factors contributing to these populist setbacks. She noted that high voter turnout, especially among younger voters, can legitimize democratic processes and counter populist influence. Additionally, elite responses, such as isolating populists, have often proven more effective than attempts to co-opt their rhetoric. Lastly, she emphasized that populists frequently prioritize consolidating power over addressing core societal issues, leading to disillusionment among supporters. These dynamics illustrate the limitations of populist strategies and provide valuable lessons for democracies facing similar challenges.

The final event in our series will take place post-election on Tuesday, November 12, from 10:00 to 11:30 am on Zoom. You can register for that event here and catch up on previous sessions on the America Votes 2024 webpage.

Can We Trust The Polls?

Brandice Canes-Wrone, Professor of Political Science and Director of the Hoover Institution’s Center for Revitalizing American Institutions, provided a succinct overview of different forecasting models, touching on their limitations and recent adaptations. Historically, models like that of economist Ray Fair have centered their election predictions on fundamentals like the economy. These models face two main limitations. First, they do not incorporate opinion polls on the candidates themselves. Second, even if voters care about economic performance, increasing partisanship has skewed subjective perceptions of the economy. Some forecasting models have responded by weighing partisanship more in their calculations, though these poll-reliant frameworks present their own limitations as well. Currently, even the most accurate models suggest this uniquely tight race remains too close to call.

Shifting to the two candidates themselves, Canes-Wrone points out that campaign messaging from both sides aligns with the expectations of most analysts. Reacting to high inflation rates, Donald Trump has centered his campaign on economic promises while Kamala Harris tries to “turn the page” to distance herself from President Joe Biden. Both their campaign strategies echo a historic shift from persuading swing voters to mobilizing their bases. Trump has taken a rather unconventional approach to the ever-important ground game, largely outsourcing mobilization to Super PACs. As Canes-Wrone argues, however, the factors determining presidential outcomes have changed far less than the rest of US politics in the last 50 years.

Restoring Trust in Elections

Americans have shown declining levels of trust in elections. While many picture January 6th as the root of this distrust, Justin Grimmer — Morris M. Doyle Centennial Professor of Public Policy and Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution — argues this turning point occurred two months earlier when Trump falsely declared victory on election night. Since then, several Republican politicians have denounced electoral losses with a series of expansive voter fraud accusations. Some Democrats have also begun to mirror these undemocratic maneuvers under a different rhetoric.

Grimmer warns that if Trump were to win the election by a narrow margin, Democrats might argue that voter suppression caused them to lose. Yet, according to Grimmer, neither argument — voter fraud nor voter suppression — holds enough weight to justify overturning the election result. Studies show that election reforms provide no partisan benefit to either party. To restore Americans’ trust in their electoral institutions, both candidates must honestly accept the results of the November election, regardless of the outcome.

Ranked Choice Voting to Combat Polarization

Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, echoed Canes-Wrone and Grimmer in emphasizing the apparent hyper-partisanship and institutional distrust endangering American democracy. Diamond argued that, despite centuries of center-leaning politics under the Electoral College, this system now serves to heighten the social, economic, and informational factors driving polarization. The two-party dominant system is in dire need of structural reforms.

Diamond advocated for the adoption of Ranked Choice Voting (RCV) to reduce polarization. RCV is hardly a panacea, but it offers alternatives to bipartisanism by making room for moderate candidates, incentivizing parties to form broad coalitions, and affording voters more choices on their ballots. This transition, Diamond noted, is easier said than done as the polarized electorates that would benefit most from RCV are likely also most opposed to it. Beyond state-level efforts, Diamond stressed the need for bottom-up mobilization and education initiatives to accompany the implementation of RCV. 

The upcoming elections present both familiar and unprecedented challenges to American democracy. Economic fundamentals and campaign strategies have thus far reflected predictable historical trends, but bipartisan polarization and institutional distrust are at all-time highs. From structural reforms to personal integrity, everyone — states, media outlets, candidates, and voters — is responsible for safeguarding democracy. 

Campaign Strategies in a Polarized America

William Robertson Coe Professor of Political Science and Communication Shanto Iyengar highlighted the impact of increasing polarization on campaign strategies. The deep-rooted partisan divide, he explained, has made persuading voters across the partisan line nearly impossible, pushing campaigns to focus instead on mobilizing their own base and targeting independent voters. Iyengar illustrated the impact of this polarization on everyday life, noting that political affiliation is now a significant factor in personal relationships and even in matters like dating and marriage.

Campaigns have responded to this changing environment by relying heavily on negative advertising, which tends to resonate with partisan voters. Negative ads, Iyengar explained, are effective in cementing party loyalty. Additionally, campaigns have focused on get-out-the-vote (GOTV) efforts, identifying likely supporters and encouraging them to vote. For independents, campaigns use positive messaging, as these voters are generally more receptive to constructive content about candidates rather than attacks. Despite the challenges, Iyengar suggested that well-timed, targeted outreach can still influence persuadable voters who may have limited media exposure.

The U.S. in a World of Democratic Backsliding

FSI Senior Fellow Beatriz Magaloni situated the U.S. election vis-à-vis a global trend of democratic backsliding. Magaloni, who is the Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations at Stanford’s Department of Political Science, explained that the election is occurring against the backdrop of democratic regressions worldwide. Many democracies, she indicated, are experiencing the weakening of political institutions, increasing centralization power, and erosion of civil liberties.

Although the U.S. remains a robust democracy, Magaloni explained, it is not immune to elements of backsliding. Instances of political violence, such as the January 6th Capitol attack and rising polarization, pose challenges to democratic norms. She also highlighted troubling signs, such as threats to civil liberties and political violence. At the same time, Magaloni stressed that the U.S. has institutional safeguards that protect against democratic backsliding. Among them is a system of checks and balances across federal and state levels.

The panelists emphasized the challenges posed by political polarization and declining trust in the integrity of democratic processes. They suggest that ensuring a smooth and trustworthy election will require continued vigilance from election officials, proactive problem-solving, and public reassurance. Campaigns, meanwhile, will likely double down on mobilization and targeted messaging as they navigate the complexities of an increasingly divided electorate. Finally, the broader global trend of democratic backsliding serves as a reminder that safeguarding democracy is just as relevant in the United States as it is in other parts of the world.

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