Stanford University

Security

FSI scholars produce research aimed at creating a safer world and examing the consequences of security policies on institutions and society. They look at longstanding issues including nuclear nonproliferation and the conflicts between countries like North and South Korea. But their research also examines new and emerging areas that transcend traditional borders – the drug war in Mexico and expanding terrorism networks. FSI researchers look at the changing methods of warfare with a focus on biosecurity and nuclear risk. They tackle cybersecurity with an eye toward privacy concerns and explore the implications of new actors like hackers.

Along with the changing face of conflict, terrorism and crime, FSI researchers study food security. They tackle the global problems of hunger, poverty and environmental degradation by generating knowledge and policy-relevant solutions. 

"The closest we came to nuclear war:" New Insights about the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis and the 1995 Black Brant event

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Abstract: The 1995 launch of a sounding rocket from Andoya in Norway allegedly misinterpreted as an attack in Russia and the so-called "Cuban Missile Crisis" in 1962 have one thing in common: they have both been referred to as "the closest we came to nuclear war." The 1962 crisis has mostly been studied from an American perspective due to the availability of documentary evidence and of the Kennedy tapes, until the 1990s when Cuba and the Soviet Union were given a voice, with the rest of the world still largely absent from the understanding of the event. The 1995 close call has been controversial and is remembered in conflicting ways: an alarmist and an untroubled one.

In this presentation, I will offer new findings on those two cases, based on previously untapped primary sources on the experience of and threat perception during the so-called "Cuban Missile Crisis" in 13 countries worldwide and on an oral history workshop I organized in London for the 20th anniversary of the 1995 "Black Brant event", which gathered for the first time Norwegian, American and Russian participants in the event. By focusing on those two events as exemplary cases of near use of nuclear weapons, I will outline a research program on such cases and its implication for social sciences and for the teaching of post-1945 world history to the next generations.

 

About the Speaker: Benoît Pelopidas is a CISAC affiliate and lecturer in International Relations at the School of Sociology, Politics and International Studies (SPAIS), University of Bristol. He was a postdoctoral fellow at CISAC for the 2011-2012 academic year.

He received his Ph. D. in political science from Sciences Po (Paris) and the University of Geneva in 2010 and was a postdoctoral fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in 2010-2011. Since 2005, he has been teaching international relations at Sciences Po (Paris), the University of Geneva and the Monterey Institute of International Studies (Graduate School of International Policy and Management).

In 2010, he won the "outstanding student essay prize" from the Doreen and Jim McElvany Nonproliferation Essay Competition and in 2011, he was awarded the "Best Graduate Paper 2010" from the International Security Studies Section of the International Studies Association. Also in 2011, he won the SNIS Award 2010 for the Best Thesis in International Studies from the Swiss Network for International Studies. A book based on his dissertation is forthcoming in French by Sciences Po University Press.

He published When Empire Meets Nationalism: Power Politics in the US and Russia (with Didier Chaudet and Florent Parmentier; Ashgate, 2009) as well as articles in The Nonproliferation Review, the European Journal of Social Sciences, the Swiss Political Science Review, and the French Yearbook of International Relations. His research focuses on epistemic communities in international security, renunciation of nuclear weapons as a historical possibility, the uses of nuclear history and memory and French nuclear policies.

Lecturer in International Relations at the School of Sociology, Politics and International Studies (SPAIS) University of Bristol, United Kingdom
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Stanford military fellow John Chu promoted to colonel in US Army

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Senior Military Fellow John Chu was promoted to the rank of colonel in the U.S. Army at Stanford last Friday, a position selectively afforded for distinguished service and leadership. Colleagues and Stanford affiliates attended the afternoon ceremony marking the occasion.

Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Karl Eikenberry led the proceedings and recognized Chu’s accomplishments in the Army and his tenure as a researcher at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI).

“We look over the course of John’s life and where he’s been, and it says so much good about him and the strengths of the United States of America,” Eikenberry said.

“As threats have changed, doctrine has changed and our national security has changed, John has continued to adapt. It says a great deal about him, our services and our country that he has been able to steadily make those shifts over the course of his career.”

Chu was born in Seoul, South Korea, and raised in the United States. He attended West Point and later achieved advanced degrees in environmental engineering and national security. Chu has had three tours of duty in Korea and served in Iraq as staff at the highest strategic level, among other posts.

At Stanford, Chu has been studying U.S. policy toward North Korea and strategic deterrence on the Korea Peninsula as a fellow at FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center during the current academic year.

The fellowship program, supported by the U.S.-Asia Security Initiative and the Center for International Security and Cooperation, provides military officers an opportunity for self-directed study under the tutelage of Stanford scholars. The program started under former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Perry. Five fellows came to campus this year; their brief bios can be found here.

Chu thanked his wife of eighteen years, Tina, and expressed gratitude to everyone who guided him over the years.

“You are the real heroes – the people I’ve worked with throughout my career,” Chu said, addressing the audience. “It is you that really deserves all the recognition, for I would not be here today without the support of many.”

Chu expects to deploy to Afghanistan as his follow-on assignment.

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Senior Military Fellow John Chu (right) is promoted to colonel in the U.S. Army in a ceremony at Stanford on Dec. 11, 2015. Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Karl Eikenberry (left) led the proceedings.
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Climate and Conflict

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We review the emerging literature on climate and conflict. We consider multiple types of human conflict, including both interpersonal conflict, such as assault and murder, and intergroup conflict, including riots and civil war. We discuss key methodological issues in estimating causal relationships and largely focus on natural experiments that exploit variation in climate over time. Using a hierarchical meta-analysis that allows us to both estimate the mean effect and quantify the degree of variability across 55 studies, we find that deviations from moderate temperatures and precipitation patterns systematically increase conflict risk. Contemporaneous temperature has the largest average impact, with each 1σ increase in temperature increasing interpersonal conflict by 2.4% and intergroup conflict by 11.3%. We conclude by highlighting research priorities, including a better understanding of the mechanisms linking climate to conflict, societies’ ability to adapt to climatic changes, and the likely impacts of future global warming.

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Whither the Russian Economy? A Lecture by Sergei Guriev

This event is now full.  We are no longer able to accept further RSVPs. 

 

The Russian Economy is in a recession due to a perfect storm of the low oil prices, sanctions and the lack of reforms. First time since 1998, Russians see a major fall in their real incomes. How long will the recession continue?  What can the Russian government do? What will happen after the recession is over?
 

Sergei Guriev is a professor of economics at Sciences Po in Paris, France. From 2004 to 2013, Dr. Guriev was a tenured professor of economics and rector of the New Economic School in Moscow. He will begin an appointment as Chief Economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in 2016.

Dr. Guriev’s research interests include contract theory, corporate governance, political economics and labor mobility. Dr. Guriev has published in international refereed journals including American Economic Review, Journal of European Economic Association, Journal of Economic Perspectives and American Political Science Review.  In 2006, he was selected a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. In 2011, he was a member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Europe, in 2012-14 – a co-chair of the Global Agenda Council on the New Economic Thinking, and in 2014-15 – a member of the Global Agenda Council on the Geoeconomics. In 2000 and 2005, he was awarded Gold Medal for the Best Research in Development Economics by the Global Development Network. In 2001, he was announced the Best Academic Manager in Humanities by Russia’s Science Support Foundation. In 2009-11, he was included in the top 100 of the President of Russia’s Cadre Reserve. In 2009, he was also awarded the Bill Maynes Award by the Eurasia Foundation. In 2009 and 2010 he received the Independent Director of the Year prize from Russia’s National Association of Independent Directors. In 2010, he received a Certificate in Company Directorship from the Institute of Directors (UK) and was voted the Best Independent Director by the Association of Managers of Russia and the Russian Institute of Directors.
 
He has been a board member of Sberbank (2008-14), E.ON Russia (2013-14), Alfa-Strakhovanie Insurance Company (2009-13), Russia Venture Company (2009-13), Russian Home Mortgage Lending Agency (2008-12) and Russian Agricultural Bank (2008-09), a member of the President of Russia’s Council on Science, Technology and Education (2008-12), and a member of the board of the Dynasty Foundation (2007-2015).  He is a member of the Scientific Council of the BRUEGEL think tank (Brussels), of the Advisory Council of the Peterson Institute on International Economics (Washington, DC), and of the Academic Advisory Board, Blavatnik School of Government, Oxford University. He is also a Research Fellow at the Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.
Sergei Guriev Professor of Economics Speaker Sciences Po, Paris
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European Security Initiative Lecture Series

The Europe Center November 2015 Newsletter

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Special Event: The European Security Initiative

Upcoming talk by Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Philip M. Breedlove.

"Europe at the Crossroads"
Date: November 9, 2015 
Time: 12:00PM to 1:30PM 
Location: Koret Taube Conference Center, Room 130 
RSVP by 5:00PM November 5, 2015.

Photo of General Philip M. Breedlove
General Philip M. Breedlove is a four-star general in the United States Air Force and the current Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR). In this position, General Breedlove is one of NATO's two strategic commanders and is the head of Allied Command Operations (ACO). General Breedlove became the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe on 13 May 2013. During his visit to Stanford, General Breedlove will discuss Europe's rapidly-evolving geopolitical climate and highlight many of the security challenges for which the United States and NATO must prepare.

General Breedlove has served in the United States Air Force since graduating from the Georgia Institute of Technology in 1977. Immediately prior to assuming his current position, General Breedlove served as Commander, U.S. Air Forces in Europe; Commander, U.S. Air Forces Africa; Commander Headquarters Allied Air Command, Ramstein; and Director, Joint Air Power Competence Centre, Kalkar Germany. We invite you to visit ourwebsite for additional information about this event.

Featured Faculty Research: Jens Hainmueller

We would like to introduce you to some of the faculty members that we support and the projects on which they are working. Our featured faculty member this month is Jens Hainmueller, who is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science.

Jens Hainmueller

Jens earned his Ph.D. in Government from Harvard University in 2009 and joined the faculty at Stanford University in 2014. His research interests include statistical methods, immigration, political economy, and political behavior. An example of Jens's research on immigration and migrant integration is his recent co-authored work with Dominik Hangertner at the London School of Economics and Giuseppe Pietrantuono at the University of Zurich, which examined the effect of naturalization on migrant political integration into the host society. Establishing the effects of naturalization on political integration is complicated by an unobservable selection process; a non-random sample of migrants chooses to apply for naturalization and a non-random sample of naturalization applicants is approved. As a result, previous work has neither been able to establish the direction of the relationship between naturalization and poitical integration nor isolate the effect of naturalization on political integration vis-à-vis alternatives. In order to limit the bias induced by this dual-selection process, Jens and his coauthors analyzed data from Switzerland, where some municipalities used referendums to make decisions on naturalization applications. By limiting the sample to those applications that were approved or rejected by only a few votes, the authors were able to establish treatment and control groups that were otherwise equivalent, thereby removing selection bias from their data. Using this unbiased sample, Jens and his coauthors found that naturalization indeed has a positive effect on migrant political integration by increasing political participation, political knowledge, and political efficacy, among others. This research was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. We invite you to visit our website for additional information about this research.

Publication Details: Hainmueller, Jens, Dominik Hangartner, and Guiseppe Pietrantuono. 2015. "Naturalization Fosters the Long-Term Political Integration of Immigrants." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112(41):12,651-12,656.

Featured Graduate Student Research: Jason Weinreb

We would like to introduce you to some of the students that we support and the projects on which they are working. Our featured student this month is Jason Weinreb (Political Science). Jason is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Political Science at Stanford University.

Jason WeinrebJason is a political economist who is interested in political risk, the politics of public finance, and economic history. His dissertation examines how newly-independent states finance themselves, focusing on former British colonies. Analysis of the London Stock Exchange in the quarter century following World War II reveals a surprising trend: colonial debt bond prices remained remarkably stable throughout decolonization. In his research at the British National Archives in London, funded in part by The Europe Center, Jason found that price stability was an insufficient indicator of investor confidence. Far from reflecting investors unperturbed by the uncertainty of decolonization, Jason's research uncovers evidence that investors were indeed concerned about the effects of independence on their investment. In fact, investor concerns manifested in higher interest rates, fewer colonial debt bond issues, and lower subscription rates relative to earlier periods. His archival research further uncovers factors that explain why colonial debt bond prices fail to reflect investor sentiment. Chief among these was the British government's intervention in the market. Its strategic purchase and holding of colonial debt bonds ensured price stability despite investor concerns.

Featured Event: Taking the Stand - A Film Presentation and Q&A with Survivors of the Holocaust

Firestone, Liska, and RammerstorferPictured: Renée Firestone, Hermine Liska, and Bernhard Rammerstorfer
By: Christof Brandtner and Sebastian Schuster 

This year we commemorate the 70th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz. At the same time, the number of people who can give us a personal account of the cruelties of the Holocaust is dwindling. Together with students from the Stanford Austria Club, The Europe Center hosted two survivors of the Holocaust and witnesses of the Nazi era: Renée Firestone (born in 1924 in today's Ukraine) and Hermine Liska (born 1930 in Austria). Firestone and Liska were introduced by TEC affiliated faculty Prof. Amir Eshel, interviewed by Austrian documentarian Bernhard Rammerstorfer, and answered engaging questions from students and community members in the audience. In their accounts, Firestone and Liska reported on the years leading up to their persecution, highlighted the importance of religion and family for their survival, and pointed out connections between the diaspora of the 1930s and 1940s and the current global refugee crisis. Rammerstorfer also presented his newest film and book project ‘Taking the stand: We have more to say’ which condenses the experience and memories of nine Holocaust survivors in response to 100 questions from high school students around the world.

Recap: Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen Visits Stanford

Anders Fogh RasmussenIn his recent visit to Stanford University, former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen painted a bleak picture of global politics. The hope of the Arab Spring has been replaced by new authoritarian regimes, civil war, and ISIS. Russia is becoming more internally authoritarian and externally aggressive. According to one measure, global levels of freedom have been in decline for the past nine consecutive years. "It looks", he said, "as if a Pandora's box of religious, ethnic, and political strife has been opened, and many nations have plunged into chaos and extremism." According to Rasmussen, successfully navigating these global challenges requires a concerted effort among liberal democratic states, spearheaded by American leadership. In order to create a strong global community of liberal democracies, he advocated strengthening the Transatlantic alliance. In addition to the existing military alliance forged through NATO, he proposed the creation of a Transatlantic Free Trade Area (TAFTA) and a Transatlantic peoples program, which would foster educational, scientific, and cultural exchanges among the partner states. More than 150 people attended the talk, which was held on September 25. To watch Rasmussen's talk in full, please visit our website.

Fall 2015 Graduate Student Grant Competition Winners Announced

Please join us in congratulating the winners of The Europe Center Fall 2015 Graduate Student Grant Competition: 

  • Elena Dancu, Comparative Literature, "From Vienna to Rio de Janeiro: Stefan Zweig and a World in Ruins."
  • Mathilde Emeriau, Political Science, "Discrimination and Integration of Asylum Seekers in France."
  • William Parmer, Philosophy, "The Art of Cruelty."
  • Rebecca Perlman, Political Science, "The Politics of Protection: Health and Safety Regulation in a Globalized Marketplace."
  • Nicola Pierri, Economics, "Credit Constraints and Firms' Productivity: Evidence from the Italian Economy."
  • Jens Pohlmann, German Studies, "Capitalizing on the Avant-Garde? An Analysis of Adversarial Authors’ Marketing Strategies in the Second Half of the 20th Century."
  • Beata Szymkow, History, "Nationalisms Interacting, L'viv 1890-1914."
  • Alice Underwood, Comparative Literature, "The Comrade's Deviant Body: Myth, Citizenship, and Socialist Decay in the Pre-Perestroika Soviet Union."
  • Ashley Walters, History, "The Evolution of a Modern Jewish Legal Defense Against Anti-Semitism in Late Imperial Russia ."
  • Jason Weinreb, Political Science, "Decolonization's Money Doctor: The Bank of England and Commonwealth Central Banks, 1955 - 1970."
  • Seth Werfel, Political Science, "Representation as Intermediation."
  • Duygu Yildirim, History, "Historicizing Nature: Approaches to The Natural History of Crete in the Eastern Mediterranean."
Please visit our website for more information about our Graduate Student Grant program.

The Europe Center Sponsored Events

November 5, 2015 
6:30PM - 9:30PM 
Romanian Film Festival (Stanford, Day 1) 
"Travelling Shorts:Families Beyond Boundaries" 
East Asia Library, Room 224, Lathrop Library Building 
Please visit our website for additional information.

November 8, 2015 
1:00PM - 8:45PM 
Romanian Film Festival (Stanford, Day 2) 
"Travelling Shorts:Families Beyond Boundaries" 
Cubberley Auditorium 
Please visit our website for additional information.

November 9, 2015 
12:00PM - 1:15PM Mart Kuldkepp, Scandinavian Studies, University College London 
"Russian deserters to Sweden in World War I" 
Reuben Hills Conference Room, Encina Hall East 
Open to Stanford affiliates only. 
RSVP requested
This seminar is organized by the Center for Russian, Eastern European and Eurasian Studies and co-sponsored by The Europe Center.

European Security Initiative Events

November 9, 2015 
12:00PM - 1:30PM 
General Philip M. Breedlove, Supreme Allied Commander Europe and Commander, US European Command, NATO 
"Europe at the Crossroads" 
Koret-Taube Conference Center, Room 130, Gunn-SIERP Building 
RSVP by 5:00PM November 5, 2015. 

November 10, 2015 
5:30PM - 7:00PM 
Lilia Shevtsova, Non-Resident Fellow, Brookings Institution and Associate Fellow Russia-Eurasia Program, Chatham House - The Royal Institute of International Affairs 
"Russia as a Global Challenge" 
Bechtel Conference Center, Encina Hall 
RSVP requested 

Save the Date: January 5, 2016 
Sergei Guriev, Professor of Economics, New Economic School, Moscow and Visiting Professor of Economics, Sciences Po, Paris 

Other Campus Events of Interest

November 16, 2015 
6:30PM - 8:15PM 
"In the Crosswinds" (2014) Film Screening 
Cubberley Auditorium, Cubberley Education Library 
RSVP requested 
For more information, please visit the event website.

We welcome you to visit our website for additional details.

 

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Shorenstein APARC releases annual Center Overview for 2014-15

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As we look toward year 2016, the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center documents highlights from the 2014-15 academic year. The latest edition of the Center Overview, entitled "Asia in Flux," includes special research, people, events and outreach features, and is now available for download online.

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Turning the Virtual Tables: Government Strategies for Addressing Online Opposition with an Application to Russia

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Joshua Tucker and his colleagues have introduced a novel classification of strategies employed by autocrats to combat hostile activity on the web and in social media in particular. Their classification looks at these options from the point of view of the end internet user and distinguishes online from offline response and exerting control from engaging in opinion formation. For each of the three options - offline action, infrastructure regulation and online engagement - they provide a detailed account for the evolution of Russian government strategy since 2000. In addition, for online engagement option they construct the tools for detecting such activity on Twitter and test them on a large dataset of politically relevant Twitter data from Russia, gathered over the period of nine month in 2014.
 

Bio:

Joshua Tucker
Joshua Tucker is a Professor of Politics and, by courtesy, Russian and Slavic Studies at New York University with an affiliate appointment at NYU-Abu Dhabi.  He is a Co-PI of the NYU Social Media and Political Participation laboratory (SMaPP), a Co-Author of the award winning politics and policy blog - The Monkey Cage at The Washington Post, and the Co-Editor of the Journal of Experimental Political Science. 
 

 

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Wallenberg Hall (Main Quad)

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Ideology and Cybersecurity: Explaining the Origin and Structure of Civilian Cyber Defense

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Abstract: Cybersecurity depends heavily on civilian cyber defense, which is decentralized, private, and voluntary. Although the structure of this field stands to have a profound impact on national and international security, its history is rarely subject to critical or comparative analysis. Why is civilian cyber defense organized this way? There are at least three plausible explanations for the origins and evolution of cyber defense as an organizational field: technology, bureaucracy, and ideology. I examine the influence of each factor during the formative years of the Internet in the United States. From the beginning, malware was described in terms of infectious disease (viruses and worms), so I use public health to provide comparative context for cyber defense. I find that technological determinism explains far less about the genesis of this field than often assumed. Bureaucratic politics are also insufficient. Therefore, I argue that the American ideology of anti-statism is necessary to explain civilian cyber defense, and this family of ideas has important implications for security cooperation at home and abroad.

About the Speaker: Frank Smith is a Senior Lecturer with the Centre for International Security Studies and the Department of Government and International Relations at the University of Sydney. His teaching and research examine the relationship between technology and international security. His book, American Biodefense, explains why the U.S. military struggled to defend itself and the country against biological warfare and bioterrorism. His current research examines cyber security cooperation; he is also analyzing the potential impact of quantum computing on international relations. Previously, Smith was a visiting scholar with the Institute for Security and Conflict Studies at the Elliott School of International Affairs, a research fellow with the Griffith Asia Institute, and a pre-doctoral fellow with the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. He has a Ph.D. in political science and a B.S. in biological chemistry, both from the University of Chicago. 

Frank Smith Senior Lecturer Speaker Centre for International Security Studies; Department of Government and International Relations, University of Sydney
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Military approach will not work in Syria, says former Stanford scholar

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On November 17, CDDRL’s Program on Arab Reform and Democracy (ARD) hosted Lina Khatib, a senior research associate with the Arab Reform Initiative, for a special talk on the Syrian crisis. Khatib was a co-founder of the ARD Program and managed its research agenda for four years before leaving CDDRL to lead the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.

After conducting extensive fieldwork on the Syrian-Turkish border, Khatib provided a detailed analysis of ISIS’ origins and how they are benefitting from the unresolved crisis in Syria. Khatib also weighed in on the refugee crisis, as well as the regional rivalries that are using Syria as a proxy to exert themselves militarily. Khatib argued that a military solution to solving the ISIS problem is not the right approach, and encouraged the international community to begin engaging different members of the Syrian opposition, and rethinking their approach to international diplomatic negotiations.

 

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