International Relations

FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

Foreign aid is also examined by scholars trying to understand whether money earmarked for health improvements reaches those who need it most. And FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center has published on the need for strong South Korean leadership in dealing with its northern neighbor.

FSI researchers also look at the citizens who drive international relations, studying the effects of migration and how borders shape people’s lives. Meanwhile FSI students are very much involved in this area, working with the United Nations in Ethiopia to rethink refugee communities.

Trade is also a key component of international relations, with FSI approaching the topic from a slew of angles and states. The economy of trade is rife for study, with an APARC event on the implications of more open trade policies in Japan, and FSI researchers making sense of who would benefit from a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.

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SEMINAR RECORDING

 

All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone. This event is part of the year-long initiative on “Ethics & Political Violence” jointly organized by the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) and The McCoy Family Center for Ethics in Society. This event is hosted by CISAC and is co-sponsored by Society for International Affairs at Stanford, McCoy Family Center for Ethics in Society, Center for South Asia.

 

About the Event: The dramatic scenes the world witnessed during the fall of Kabul in 2021 following the withdrawal of US and allied forces from Afghanistan nearly coincided with the twentieth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks by Al Qaeda and the subsequent US and allied invasion of Afghanistan. The United States committed trillions of dollars, dispatched soldiers, diplomats and spies across the globe, and made dramatic alterations to domestic and international law to combat terrorism. The material, humanitarian and normative consequences of two decades of war have been significant, both globally and in Afghanistan specifically. In this panel, Dr. Felter, Dr. Mir and Professor Zegart will assess U.S. responses during the global war on terror, identify unexpected outcomes and lessons learned, and ultimately weigh the costs and benefits of this two-decade struggle against terrorism.

 

About the Speakers: 

Joe Felter is a William J. Perry Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and research fellow at the Hoover Institution.  From 2017 to 2019, Felter served as US deputy assistant secretary of defense for South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania. There he was the principal advisor for all policy matters pertaining to development and implementation of defense strategies and plans in the region and responsible for managing bilateral security relationships and guiding Department of Defense (DoD) engagement with multilateral institutions.  

 

Asfandyar Mir is a senior expert in the Asia Center at USIP. Previously, heheld various fellowships at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. His research interests include the international relations of South Asia, U.S. counterterrorism policy and political violence — with a regional focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan. Asfandyar Mir’s research has appeared in peer-reviewed journals, such as International Security, International Studies Quarterly and Security Studies. He received his doctorate in political science from the University of Chicago and a master’s and bachelor’s from Stanford University.

 

Amy Zegart is the Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and Professor of Political Science (by courtesy) at Stanford University. She is also a Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Chair of Stanford’s Artificial Intelligence and International Security Steering Committee, and a contributing writer at The Atlantic. She specializes in U.S. intelligence, emerging technologies and national security, grand strategy, and global political risk management.

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to William J Perry Conference Room in Encina Hall may attend in person. 

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Asfandyar Mir is an affiliate with the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University. Previously he has held predoctoral and postdoctoral fellowships at the center. His research interests are in the international relations of South Asia, US counterterrorism policy, and political violence, with a regional focus on Afghanistan and Pakistan. His research has appeared in peer-reviewed journals of International Relations, such as International Security, International Studies Quarterly and Security Studies, and his commentary has appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, H-Diplo, Lawfare, Modern War Institute, Political Violence at a Glance, Politico, and the Washington Post.

Asfandyar received his PhD in political science from the University of Chicago and a masters and bachelors from Stanford University.

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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
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Dr. Amy Zegart is the Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. The author of five books, she specializes in U.S. intelligence, emerging technologies, and national security. At Hoover, she leads the Technology Policy Accelerator and the Oster National Security Affairs Fellows Program. She also is an associate director and senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI; a senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute; and professor of political science by courtesy, teaching 100 students each year about how emerging technologies are transforming espionage.

Her award-winning research includes the leading academic study of intelligence failures before 9/11: Spying Blind: The CIA, the FBI, and the Origins of 9/11 (Princeton, 2007) and the bestseller Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence (Princeton, 2022), which was nominated by Princeton University Press for the Pulitzer Prize. She also coauthored Political Risk: How Businesses and Organizations Can Anticipate Global Insecurity, with Condoleezza Rice (Twelve, 2018). Her op-eds and essays have appeared in Foreign Affairs, Politico, the New York Times, the Washington Post, and the Wall Street Journal.

Zegart has advised senior officials about intelligence and foreign policy for more than two decades. She served on the National Security Council staff and as a presidential campaign foreign policy advisor and has testified before numerous congressional committees. Before her academic career, she spent several years as a McKinsey & Company consultant.

Zegart received an AB in East Asian studies from Harvard and an MA and a PhD in political science from Stanford. She serves on the boards of the Council on Foreign Relations, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, and the American Funds/Capital Group.

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Alyssa received her M.A. in International Comparative Education at Stanford University where she explored the educational challenges she encountered while teaching English First Additional Language as a Peace Corps Volunteer in rural South Africa. She also received a B.S. in Global Studies and a B.A. in Spanish and Portuguese from the University of Arizona. Prior to joining the team at The Europe Center, Alyssa worked at Stanford Pre-Collegiate Studies, bringing high quality enrichment opportunities to academically talented pre-college students around the world and at the Utah Valley University Women's Success Center where she assisted woman identifying students towards degree completion. Alyssa speaks Spanish, Portuguese, and (some) Setswana and loves to do the Sunday crossword or get outside for a hike with her dog, Cooper. 

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On August 9, 2020 citizens in the Republic of Belarus went to the polls to vote for their next president. The incumbent was Alexander Lukashenko, a 67-year-old military officer who has kept an iron grip on the presidency for the entire 26 years Bealrus has held elections. But the challenger was an unexpected, new face. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya is a 38-year-old English teacher, mother and pro-democracy activist who stepped into a campaign following her husband's arrest and imprisonment in May 2020 for political dissension. In four short months, she galvanized the nation with a message of democracy, freedom and fair elections that reached across opposition factions and gained enough momentum to become a serious contender for the presidency.

On election day, projections estimated an initial win for Tsikhanouskaya at 60%. But when the country's Central Elections Commission announced the election results, Lukashenko carried 80% of the vote, and Tsikhanouskaya a mere 10%. Given the long history of election engineering in Belarus, the results were expected. But what happened next was not. Outraged by the fraud, Tsikhanouskaya's supporters poured into city centers in Brest and Minsk by the tens of thousands, instigating the largest public protests in the history of post-Soviet Belarus. Caught off-guard, the regime hit back with a ruthless wave of violence and political imprisonments, prompting the European Union, NATO and other countries to impose sanctions and condemn Lukashenko as an illegitimate leader.

While Tsikhanouskaya's presidential campaign ended last August, her role as a democratic leader in Eastern Europe has not. In the year since the election, she has traveled the globe to meet with lawmakers, policy experts and heads of state to speak out against the ongoing repression of Lukashenko's regime and advocate for support of Belarus by the international community. The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) was honored to host Tsikhanouskaya and her delegation at Stanford for a roundtable discussion on the challenges that lay ahead in preparing Belarus for a democratic transition. Director Michael McFaul hosted the discussion, which brought together scholars from across FSI, the Hoover Institute and the Belarusian expatriate community. The full recording is below.

Rather than holding a typical press conference, Tsikhanouskaya's visit at FSI gave members of the Belarusian delegation an opportunity to engage in back-and-forth dialogue with an interdisciplinary panel of experts on governance, history and policy. Tsikhanouskaya and her senior advisors shared their perspectives on the challenges they are facing to build and maintain pro-democracy efforts, while Stanford scholars offered insights from their extensive research and scholarship.

Presidents, Protests and Precedent in Belarus


As leader of the delegation, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya gave an overview of the brutality of Lukashenko's regime and the lawlessness that has enveloped the country. But she also reaffirmed the commitment of everyday Belarusians to defending their independence and continuing the work of building new systems to push back against the dictatorship, and encouraged the support of the international democratic community.

"Belarusians are doing their homework. But we also understand that we need the assistance and help of other democratic countries," said Tsikhanouskaya. "That support is vital, because our struggle relates not just to Belarusians, but to all countries who share these common values."

Speaking to the work that Belarusians have already undertaken, Franak Viačorka, a senior advisor to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, described how citizens are creating new means of protesting and organizing. Though they learned some tactics from recent protests in Hong Kong and classic theories by political scientists like Gene Sharp, organizers in Belarus quickly realized that they needed to innovate in order to keep ahead of Lukashenko's crack-downs. Today the opposition is a tech-driven movement that spreads awareness and support quickly through digital spaces and underground channels while avoiding large in-person gatherings that attract government brutality.

By Tanya Bayeva's assessment, these methods of organizing have been effective in capturing widespread support amongst people. A member of the Belarusian diaspora, Bayeva described the sense of empowerment she felt in coming together in a common cause with like-minded people.

"By coming out like this, people have started realizing that it is up to us, the people, and our individual willpower to make a difference," said Bayeva. "We are realizing that the king has no clothes, and that working together we can forward the process of democratization."

But there is still plenty of work ahead. In order to facilitate a more peaceful future transition to a democratic system, there will need to be frameworks in place to bridge the divide between old systems and new. Valery Kavaleuski, the representative on foreign affairs in Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's delegation, is focusing extensively on these issues, such as reconciliation processes and plans for future investments between Belarus and the European Union.

"These are political moves that reinforce hope among Belarusians and tells that that they are not alone and that when the change comes, they will have friends by their side to overcome the challenges of the transition period," said Kavaleuski.

Advice from Stanford Scholars: Focus on Processes and People


Responding to the Belarusian delegation's questions and comments, the faculty from FSI and the broader Stanford community offered insights and considerations from a variety of perspectives and disciplines on 'next steps' for the pro-democracy movement.

Francis Fukuyama, the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at FSI and Mosbacher Director at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), cautioned against the impulse to immediately take down the state and bureaucratic systems of the existing regime. While dismantling the mechanisms from the old state may feel emotionally satisfying, examples from history such as post-Nazi Germany and post-invasion Iraq illustrate the crippling effect on efficiency, functionality and the ability of the new order to govern in a vacuum of bureaucratic expertise.

FSI's Deputy Director, Kathryn Stoner, gave similar advice in regard to drafting and implementing a new constitution and conventions.

"People care to a great degree [about a new constitution], but not to months and months of debate and politicians yelling at one another. People can't eat constitutions," said Stoner. "You have to demonstrate that your system is going to be better than what was. When things have not gone well in transitioning countries, it's been because people don't see concrete change. So have a constitutional convention, but make it fast."

Amr Hamzawy, a senior research scholar for the Middle East Initiative at the Center for Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, also pointed to the importance of engaging the public and building alliances within both the old and new political systems. Based on his observations of the failed Egyptian and Tunisian efforts at democratic transition, he cautioned against discussions of impunity, arguing that while politically and morally symbolic, this practice often backfires and alienates important factions of the state apparatus which are vital for the function and success of a new government.

Hamzawy similarly encouraged carefully blending nationalism and populism to keep divisions within the public sector in check. Imbuing such narratives with pro-democracy rhetoric, he believes, can create a powerful tool for unifying the population around the new government and emerging national identity.  

The advice from the Europe Center's director, Anna Grzymala-Busse, succinctly brought together many of the points made by the faculty panel: "No post-transitional government can achieve all the promises they've made right away," said Grzymala-Busse. "So make the transition about processes rather than specific outcomes, about ensuring the losers are heard along with the winners, and about making sure all people can participate."

Additional participants in the roundtable discussion not noted above include Hanna Liubakova, a journalist and non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, Dmytro Kushneruk, the Consul General of Ukraine in San Francisco, and Stanford scholars Larry Diamond, David Holloway, Norman Naimark, Erik Jensen, Kiyoteru Tsutsui and John Dunlop.

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Protesters in Minsk, Belarus on 8/16/20
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'In Being Together, We Had the Power' - A Belarusian Activist Describes Life on the Front Lines of Minsk Protests

On the World Class Podcast, Belarusian scholar and activist Aleś Łahviniec explains why people are protesting, and what it feels like to be out on the streets in Minsk.
'In Being Together, We Had the Power' - A Belarusian Activist Describes Life on the Front Lines of Minsk Protests
Tatiana Kouzina
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CDDRL Statement Regarding the Arrest of Tatiana Kouzina by Belarusian Authorities

The faculty and staff of Stanford's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, as well as the undersigned alumni of the Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program, wish to protest the completely unjustified arrest and pending trial of the researcher Tatiana Kouzina on June 28 by Belarusian authorities.
CDDRL Statement Regarding the Arrest of Tatiana Kouzina by Belarusian Authorities
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Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya discusses the future of democracy in Belarus with a roundtable of Stanford scholars.
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, Michael McFaul, Franak Viačorka, and Francis Fukuyama participate in a roundtable discussion on democracy in Belarus.
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Democratic leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and her delegation joined an interdisciplinary panel of Stanford scholars and members of the Belarusian community to discuss the future of democracy in Belarus.

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Cover of issue 16 of the journal Asia Policy and the Nimitz Carrier sailing in the Indian Ocean

U.S. strategy, directed toward an escalating competition with China, now sees the Indian Ocean as inseparable from the Pacific—combined in an organic Indo-Pacific whole—and India as a linchpin partner in it. As the United States plans to redouble its military power in the western Pacific, it is relying on India to grow more powerful and help safeguard their shared interests in the Indian Ocean, easing demands on U.S. resources in that region.

But that will not be the end of the story. India remains the most consequential strategic actor in the Indian Ocean by virtue of its geographic centrality, economic and military power, and abiding networks of influence across the region. But its capabilities and intentions—and therefore the strategic trajectory of the Indian Ocean—will continue to evolve as they have since the uncertain days of 1989 and long before. What if in the coming years India fails to expand its military power as its champions expect and instead is outmatched by China in the Indian Ocean? Or what if, in the throes of competition with China, India exercises its power more nakedly than its regional partners would wish? Relatedly, what if the United States, which has for decades underwritten regional security, chooses to retrench its strategic presence to focus efforts in the western Pacific? Policymakers in Washington, Canberra, and regional capitals would be well-advised to accept that many trajectories—some sharply divergent—are possible.

This essay offers a preliminary attempt at illustrating some of those sharply divergent scenarios. It uses a novel alternative futures methodology known as major/minor trends to derive scenarios of Indian and U.S. strategic behavior and their resulting effects on the Indian Ocean region. The essay briefly introduces the methodology and then sketches three alternative futures designed around a relatively weaker India, an aggressive India, and a retrenching United States, respectively. Each scenario is designed to convey a key lesson for policymakers on the fragility of the assumptions that underpin current policy. 

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Re-examining assumptions of capability and intent
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Arzan Tarapore
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THIS EVENT HAS MOVED TO THURSDAY, JULY 29, 2021 from 12:00 PM - 1:00 PM

This event will be held via Zoom: REGISTER HERE

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S. Tsikhanouskaya

The Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI) is honored to host Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya for a roundtable discussion on the future of democracy in Belarus. Tsikhanouskaya is a human rights and pro-democracy activist who ran as an independent presidential candidate for Belarus in 2020. Her campaign attracted a wide range of support from across Belarus’s political opposition, and her loss to sitting president Alexander Lukashenko spurred allegations of wide-spread voting fraud and led to the largest public protests in the history of post-Soviet Belarus.


Tsikhanouskaya continues to advocate for the democratic future of Belarus despite her self-exile to Lithuania following her election loss. Her remarks at FSI are in conjunction with her July tour of the United States to spread awareness of the pro-democracy cause and lobby the Biden administration to impose additional sanctions against Belarusian industry. She will share her experiences as a leader and organizer for change and  discuss the challenges she sees for Belarus moving forward. FSI Director Michael McFaul will moderate the discussion.

 

Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya <I>Leader of democratic Belarus</i>
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Join Recruitment and Admissions Manager Meghan Moura to learn more about the Master's in International Policy program and how to apply. Please register in advance.

The Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy (MIP) is a two year, full-time, professional graduate degree program. The M.A. degree is earned through completion of core and elective coursework, an area of specialization, and a capstone project. The program is interdisciplinary in nature, and students are encouraged to pursue coursework that spans academic fields at Stanford. Specializations within the program include: Cyber Policy and Security (CYBER); Energy, Natural Resources, and the Environment (ENRE); Global Health (GH) [incorporated into the GOVDEV specialization as of Septemeber 2020]; Governance and Development (GOVDEV); and International Security (ISEC).

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Jim Dempsey is senior policy advisor to the Stanford Program on Geopolitics, Technology and Governance and a lecturer at the UC Berkeley School of Law, where he teaches a course on cybersecurity law in the LLM program. Until May 2021, Jim was Executive Director of the Berkeley Center for Law & Technology. In 2012, after Senate confirmation, he was appointed by President Barack Obama as a part-time member of the U.S. Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board, an independent agency within the federal government charged with advising senior policymakers and overseeing the nation’s counterterrorism programs. He served in that position until January 2017, while also running BCLT.

From 1997 to 2014, Dempsey was at the Center for Democracy & Technology (CDT), a non-profit public policy organization focused on privacy and other issues affecting the internet, where he held a number of leadership positions. Prior to that he was deputy director of the Center for National Security Studies (1995-1997) and assistant counsel to the House Judiciary Committee (1985-1995), focusing on privacy, FBI oversight, and surveillance issues. 

Jim graduated from Yale College and Harvard Law School.

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Senior Policy Advisor, Geopolitics, Technology, and Governance at CISAC
Lecturer at the UC Berkeley School of Law
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Please join our partners at APSIA for their 2021 online grad school fair. Representatives from across the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and other top-line graduate programs in international studies at leading universities will be online to answer your questions and provide resources on the application process.

Whether you are an undergrad student trying to decide what comes next in your academic journey or a professional looking to advance your career, this is an excellent opportunity to network and gain insight into reaching your goals.

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POLITICO has announced their annual ranking of the 28 power players behind Europe’s tech revolution. In addition to an overall No. 1, the list is divided into three categories — rulemakers, rulebreakers and visionaries — each representing a different type of power. The Cyber Policy Center's Marietje Schaake is included on the list as a visionary and "voice to listen to on both sides of the Atlantic."

From the announcement:

The 42-year-old Dutch native has become a leading voice of European philosophy on how to regulate technology, especially in the U.S., where she’s been teaching at Stanford University’s Cyber Policy Center since leaving European politics.

Her message — that the internet’s early leaders have grown into all-too-dominant behemoths unable to subdue their own vices and are violating human rights — might have seemed out of whack in the U.S. a few years ago. But it has since become mainstream, in part thanks to Schaake’s work to reshape the American conversation on technology and inject some of Europe’s criticism on the sector.

In Europe, too, Schaake’s star keeps rising and rising. Once one of Brussels’ most visible politicians, she has now turned her attention to taming algorithms and the growing issue of cyber threats. In 2019, she launched the CyberPeace Institute in Geneva, a group focused on getting European policymakers to care about the human victims of cyberattack.

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Marietje Schaake

Marietje Schaake

International Policy Director at the Cyber Policy Center
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The Cyber Policy Center Turns Two

A look back at the launch of the CPC and the work of our programs
The Cyber Policy Center Turns Two
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POLITICO’s annual ranking of the 28 power players behind Europe’s tech revolution includes the Cyber Policy Center's Marietje Schaake. The list is divided into three categories — rulemakers, rulebreakers and visionaries — each representing a different type of power.

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Cross-strait deterrence is arguably weaker today than at any point since the Korean War. Impressive Chinese military modernization, U.S. failure to build robust coalitions to counter Chinese regional aggression, and Xi Jinping’s personal ambition, all coalesce to create a situation in which Chinese leaders may see some aggregate benefit to using force. Mastro supports this assessment in her response to the Commission’s specific questions. 

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Statement before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on “Deterring PRC Aggression Toward Taiwan”
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Oriana Skylar Mastro
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