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Persisting in Hard Times

We are living through challenging times — but not for the first time. History reminds us that in our struggle, we are not alone. Across generations, people have risen to meet hardship with courage, community, and conviction — organizing for justice, teaching with purpose, advocating for change, and imagining a better future.

Join us for a powerful, moderated conversation with today’s changemakers — leaders, educators, and activists who are carrying forward this legacy of resilience and hope. Together, we’ll explore how they stay grounded, what inspires their work, and how each of us can play a part in building a more just and compassionate world. 

Event organized by Hakeem Jefferson and Gillian Slee.

MODERATORS: Hakeem Jefferson, Karina Kloos

SPEAKERS:

  • Alison Kamhi
  • Antonio López
  • DeCarol Davis
  • Pam Karlan

About the Speakers

Hakeem Jefferson

Hakeem Jefferson

Assistant Professor of Political Science & Director, Program on Identity, Democracy, and Justice, Stanford University
Link to bio

Hakeem Jefferson is an assistant professor of political science at Stanford University and faculty director of the Program on Identity, Democracy, and Justice at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. His research centers on questions of race, identity, and political behavior in the United States. He is currently completing a book based on his award-winning dissertation that explores why members of stigmatized groups sometimes engage in policing and punishing their own. His academic work has been published in The American Political Science ReviewPublic Opinion QuarterlyPerspectives on Politics, and Electoral Studies. In addition to his scholarly work, Jefferson is a frequent contributor to public conversations about race and American politics, with writing appearing in outlets such asThe New York TimesFiveThirtyEightThe Washington Post, and The San Francisco Chronicle. He is a proud graduate of the University of Michigan and South Carolina public schools.

Karina Kloos

Executive Director, Stanford Democracy Hub
Link to bio

Karina Kloos is the Executive Director for the Democracy Hub and the newly launched ePluribus Stanford initiative.

Karina has also co-led the design and implementation of other emergent programs at Stanford, including the signature faculty fellowship, postdoctoral fellowship, PhD fellowship and Scholars in Service programs with Stanford Impact Labs, and the RAISE (Research, Action and Impact through Strategic Engagement) Doctoral Fellowship with the Vice Provost of Graduate Education.

She has professional experience in the domestic nonprofit, international development, and philanthropy sectors, and has published in both academic and media outlets on land rights; women’s rights; indigenous rights; sustainability; nonprofit evaluation; social movements; and democracy, including co-authorship with Doug McAdam of the 2014 book Deeply Divided: Racial Politics and Social Movements in Postwar America.

Having spent more than a decade at Stanford – the place where she met her husband and has brought two wee ones into the world – Karina is invested in the vibrancy and health of our community, as well as leveraging the immense talent and resources we have to engage and contribute positively beyond the university. She received her PhD in Sociology from Stanford in 2014.

Alison Kamhi

Alison Kamhi

Legal Program Director, Immigrant Legal Resource Center

Alison Kamhi is the Legal Program Director based in San Francisco. Alison leads the ILRC's Immigrant Survivors Team and conducts frequent in-person and webinar trainings on naturalization and citizenship, family-based immigration, U visas, and FOIA requests. She also provides technical assistance through the ILRC's Attorney of the Day program on a wide range of immigration issues, including immigration options for youth, consequences of criminal convictions for immigration purposes, removal defense strategy, and eligibility for immigration relief, including family-based immigration, U visas, VAWA, DACA, cancellation of removal, asylum, and naturalization and has co-authored a number of publications on the same topics. Alison facilitates the nine member Collaborative Resources for Immigrant Services on the Peninsula (CRISP) collaborative in San Mateo County to provide immigration services to low-income immigrants in Silicon Valley. Prior to the ILRC, Alison worked as a Clinical Teaching Fellow at the Stanford Law School Immigrants' Rights Clinic. Before Stanford, she represented abandoned and abused immigrant youth as a Skadden Fellow at Bay Area Legal Aid and at Catholic Charities Community Services in New York. She clerked for the Honorable Julia Gibbons in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit. Alison received her J.D. from Harvard Law School and her B.A. from Stanford University.

Antonio López

Antonio López

Poet Laureate, San Mateo County & Stanford Doctoral Candidate Modern Thought & Literature Program
Link to bio
Antonio López is a poetician working at the intersections of art, politics, and social change. Raised in East Palo Alto by Mexican immigrants from Michoacán, he is a first-generation college graduate with degrees from Duke University, Rutgers-Newark, and the University of Oxford, where he was a 2018 Marshall Scholar. His poetry and essays have appeared in Poetry Foundation, The Slowdown, Poetry Daily, and Latino Poetry: The Library of America Anthology. His debut poetry collection, Gentefication, won the 2019 Levis Prize from Four Way Books. In 2024, he received a Pushcart Prize. From 2020 to 2024, López served on the East Palo Alto City Council and also as its mayor, grounding his scholarship in community leadership and public service. He is completing his PhD in Modern Thought and Literature at Stanford University. His dissertation, Hood Playin’ Tricks on Me: Gentrification, Grief, and the Ghosts of East Palo Alto, won the Stanford Humanities Center Dissertation Book Prize. Structured as a Netflix-style miniseries, the project blends memoir, theory, oral history, and archival work to explore how gentrification haunts communities of color. López is the 5th Poet Laureate of San Mateo County (2025–2027). In fall 2025, he will be a Residential Fellow at the Stanford Humanities Center. He also serves as Associate Director of Research and Advocacy at ALAS, a nationally recognized Latinx cultural arts and justice organization working along the coastside of San Mateo County.
DeCarol Davis

DeCarol Davis

Director, Community Legal Services Program, Legal Aid at Work
Link to bio

DeCarol Davis is the Director of the Community Legal Services program, which provides free legal services to low-wage workers at Workers’ Rights Clinics throughout California. Prior to joining Legal Aid at Work in 2020, Davis, in addition to bartending and managing house at Shotgun Players, Ashby Stage, conducted international legal research with the University of Sydney, Australia on the exploitation of migrant workers. Prior to her research, Davis litigated as a plaintiff-side employment attorney at Bryan Schwartz Law.

As a Truman Scholar, Davis received her J.D. from Berkeley Law in 2017, where she served as a student director of the Workers’ Rights Clinic, was a two-time mock trial national champion, including regional and national titles in the ABA Labor and Employment Law Competition, and earned the Francine Marie Diaz Memorial Award for distinguished public service.

Before becoming an attorney, Davis was an officer in the U.S. Coast Guard.  Davis, who graduated top of her class at the Coast Guard Academy in 2008 with a degree in Electrical Engineering, served as a marine inspector, the author of Coast Guard field regulations, and a law enforcement officer. During her service, she was awarded the Judge Advocate General Field Regulations Award, Meritorious Team Commendation, and the Department of Defense STEM Role Model Award.
In 2022, she received the Berkeley Law Kathi Pugh Award for Exceptional Mentorship.

Pam Karlan

Pamela Karlan

Kenneth and Harle Montgomery Professor of Public Interest Law, Stanford Law School
Link to bio

Pamela Karlan is the Kenneth and Harle Montgomery Professor of Public Interest Law and co-director of the Supreme Court Litigation Clinic at Stanford Law School. She has argued ten cases before the Court and worked on over one hundred.

Pam’s primary scholarship involves constitutional litigation. She has published dozens of articles and is the co-author of three leading casebooks as well as a monograph on constitutional interpretation—Keeping Faith with the Constitution. She has received numerous teaching awards.

Pam’s public service including clerking for Justice Harry Blackmun, a term on California’s Fair Political Practices Commission, and two appointments as a Deputy Assistant Attorney General in the Civil Rights Division of the United States Department of Justice. She was also an assistant counsel at the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund.

Pam is a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and the American Law Institute, where she serves on the ALI Council. In 2016, she was named one of the Politico 50 — a group of “thinkers, doers, and visionaries transforming American politics”; earlier in her career, the American Lawyer named her to its Public Sector 45 — a group of lawyers “actively using their law degrees to change lives.”

Hakeem Jefferson
Hakeem Jefferson
Karina Kloos
Gillian Slee
(and co-organized by Gillian Slee.)

Psychology Building 420 — Main Quad, Classroom 041 (Lower Level)
450 Jane Stanford Way, Bldg. 420-041, Stanford

This event is in-person and open to the public. Registration is required.

Alison Kamhi Supervising Attorney & Trustee Panelist Immigrant Legal Resource Center; Palo Alto Unified School District
Antonio López Poet Laureate & Doctoral Candidate Panelist San Mateo County; Modern Thought & Literature Program, Stanford
DeCarol Davis Director, Community Legal Services Program Panelist Legal Aid at Work
Pamela Karlan Professor of Law & Former Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General Panelist Stanford Law School; U.S. Department of Justice
Panel Discussions
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The unveiling of the Bracero Legacy Mural took place on April 18, 2025 in Chualar, in the Salinas Valley of Monterey County. The mural honors all Bracero workers and remembers the 32 Bracero workers who tragically lost their lives and the 22 Bracero workers who survived in a train collision in Chualar, on September 17, 1963. Dr. Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguez, a historian whose research has focused on the Bracero Program, shared the following:

The Bracero Program was a series of laws that allowed the United States to recruit temporary guest workers (braceros, lit. “individuals who work with their arms”) from Mexico. As the United States entered World War II, its agriculture and railroad industries witnessed a shortage of laborers due to the U.S. military draft and the forced removal of Japanese Americans from the West Coast of the United States. The United States and Mexico entered into legal agreements that would ultimately be known as the Bracero Program, which operated from 1942 to 1964. Braceros worked throughout the United States, but the largest concentration of Braceros was employed in California. There were an estimated 4.5 million contracts signed by Braceros over the 22-year period. Today a large proportion of the Mexican American population can trace its heritage to former Braceros.

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colorful mural


The Bracero Legacy Mural (above) was painted and designed by contemporary artist Hanif Panni and sponsored by the Arts Council of Monterey County; photo courtesy Monterey County Supervisor Luis Alejo. The mural depicts a man standing in the lettuce fields of the Salinas Valley and an image of the bus that was hit by a train on September 17, 1963. Research for the mural was based on Ornelas Rodriguez’s study of the Ernesto Galarza papers at Stanford. Ornelas Rodriguez, whose grandfather was a Bracero, has spent the last 15 years studying and analyzing Galarza’s personal papers, which Galarza donated to the Department of Special Collections, Stanford University Libraries. Included in the collection are numerous files about the accident and subsequent investigations that Galarza conducted for Congress. They also include his correspondence with various families of victims and survivors. Most recently Ornelas Rodriguez has been working to locate more of the families connected to the accident.

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five people standing in front of a colorful mural


Ornelas Rodriguez has spoken for many years about the possibilities of a mural dedicated to Braceros with Monterey County Supervisor Luis Alejo, an American politician who served in the California State Assembly representing the 30th Assembly District, encompassing the Pajaro and Salinas valleys. Alejo initiated conversations with the Monterey County Arts Council, which eventually approved support for the Bracero Legacy Mural. Alejo appears in the center of the photo above. Left to right: Monterey County Supervisor Chris Lopez; Artist Hanif Panni; Monterey County Supervisor Luis Alejo; Consul General of Mexico, San Jose, Alejandra Bologna; and Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguez; photo courtesy Dr. Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguez.

I was touched by the heartfelt comments that all of these people shared during the unveiling ceremony and felt a very strong emotional connection to the Braceros who were present for the ceremony because I spent my childhood—as a farm laborer and son of migrant farmworkers and sharecroppers—working with Braceros from the 1950s. I also felt ties to being in the Salinas Valley because that is where my family lived and worked prior to the outbreak of World War II. As mentioned by Ornelas Rodriguez, the forced removal of Japanese Americans from the West Coast of the United States—most of whom were farm workers—was one of the chief reasons for the establishment of the Bracero Program. I recommend that teachers introduce the Bracero Program—and Mexicans and Mexican Americans in the U.S. agricultural workforce broadly—to students and suggest that they consider using a lecture by Ornelas Rodriguez titled “Visualizing the Essential: Mexicans in the U.S. Agricultural Workforce.”

To stay informed of SPICE news, join our email list and follow us on FacebookX, and Instagram.

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Dr. Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguez with his grandfather, a former bracero, and family, taken during a ceremony at Stanford University
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The Bracero Program, 1942–1964

December 31, 2024 marks the 60-year anniversary since Congress ended the Bracero Program.
The Bracero Program, 1942–1964
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Dr. Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguez receiving recognition from Monterey County Supervisor Chris Lopez
Photo Credit: Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguez
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The Bracero Program was a series of laws that allowed the United States to recruit temporary guest workers from Mexico.

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Khushmita Dhabhai
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In a CDDRL research seminar series talk, FSI Senior Fellow Alberto Díaz-Cayeros presented his research on “Epidemiological Shocks, Governance, and Extraction in Colonial Mexico.”

The European conquest of the Americas brought dramatic changes to Indigenous societies, dismantling pre-colonial empires and city-states while imposing exploitative colonial systems. One such institution was the Encomienda, which placed Indigenous communities under the control of individual conquistadores. This system disrupted traditional authority, exploited indigenous labor, and deepened social and economic upheavals. Díaz-Cayeros’s study focuses on Tepetlaoztoc, a city-state in the Acolhua Kingdom of the Aztec Empire, to understand how demographic collapse, epidemic disease, and colonial rent extraction were interconnected.

The research challenges the widely accepted "virgin soil" hypothesis, which attributes the catastrophic population decline — over 90% — to Indigenous Peoples’ lack of immunity to European diseases. Instead, Díaz-Cayeros argues that colonial exploitation and the destruction of political autonomy played a significant role in amplifying the effects of these epidemics. This reframe shifts the narrative from viewing these declines as natural consequences of disease to seeing them as direct outcomes of systemic colonial policies.

Using historical records, Díaz-Cayeros’ study reconstructs population changes in Tepetlaoztoc and employs epidemiological models to analyze how diseases spread and killed so many. For instance, mortality rates during smallpox outbreaks were around 25%, while cocoliztli — a deadly hemorrhagic fever — caused up to 40% mortality. These rates varied depending on social factors, such as land ownership and class. Wealthier or more socially connected groups sometimes fared better, while laborers and marginalized groups were more vulnerable due to overwork and poor living conditions under colonial rule.

The study also employs advanced epidemiological modeling techniques to understand the spread of diseases. These models reveal that the devastation in Tepetlaoztoc was not solely due to pathogens but also to the breakdown of traditional agricultural systems and trade networks. The shift in land use toward livestock farming, for example, disrupted local food production and made recovery nearly impossible. This prolonged what the study calls a “poverty trap,” where the region remained economically and socially stagnant for centuries.

Importantly, the research highlights Indigenous resilience. Codices (historical documents) and oral histories show that indigenous communities actively responded to these crises, storing food and reorganizing resources to survive famine and disease. These accounts challenge the Eurocentric portrayal of Indigenous Peoples as passive victims and instead emphasize their adaptability and agency.

Díaz-Cayeros’ research provides a nuanced understanding of the catastrophic demographic changes in colonial Mexico. It shows that these were not inevitable consequences of disease but were exacerbated by colonial systems that exploited and dismantled Indigenous societies. By combining historical data with modern analytical tools, the study highlights the enduring impacts of colonialism and underscores the importance of including indigenous perspectives in understanding history.

You can view a complete recording of Díaz-Cayeros’ presentation below:

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Alex Mierke-Zatwarnicki
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Understanding Identity Politics: Strategies for Party Formation and Growth

CDDRL Postdoctoral Fellow Alex Mierke-Zatwarnicki explores how identity politics — strategies of political mobilization based on group identity — shape the development of new political parties, particularly those trying to establish themselves in a competitive environment.
Understanding Identity Politics: Strategies for Party Formation and Growth
Marc Lynch
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The Middle East as a Transnationalized Warscape

Marc Lynch, Professor of Political Science at George Washington University and the Director of the Project on Middle East Political Science, applies a framework of “Warscape Theory” to better understand patterns of state failures, recurrent conflict, and authoritarian rule across the region.
The Middle East as a Transnationalized Warscape
Bryn Rosenfeld
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The Transformative Power of Anger Under Authoritarian Repression

Cornell Assistant Professor of Political Science Bryn Rosenfeld’s work explains why ordinary citizens — those without activist ties — sometimes take extraordinary risks to stand up to authoritarian regimes.
The Transformative Power of Anger Under Authoritarian Repression
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Alberto Díaz-Cayeros presents his research in a CDDRL seminar.
Alberto Díaz-Cayeros presented his research in a CDDRL seminar on January 9, 2025.
Khushmita Dhabhai
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FSI Senior Fellow Alberto Díaz-Cayeros explores how demographic collapse, epidemic disease, and colonial rent extraction were interconnected in Tepetlaoztoc, a city-state in the Acolhua Kingdom of the Aztec Empire.

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Gary Mukai
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My grandparents, who were immigrants from Hiroshima, Japan, were migrant farm workers and sharecroppers in California from the early 20th century, and they lived in many towns in California. The only other state that they lived in was Arizona when they were incarcerated by the U.S. government from 1942 to the end of World War II in 1945 in what were once called “relocation centers” and now usually referred to in U.S. history textbooks as “internment camps” for people of Japanese descent primarily from the West Coast. My parents, who were born in California and thus U.S. citizens, were also incarcerated. Because Japanese immigrants and their descendants played such a vital role in agriculture in states like California, the incarceration of approximately 120,000 people of Japanese descent—along with the military draft—caused a severe labor shortage in agriculture. These were two of the key reasons for the establishment of the Bracero Program in 1942. SPICE Consultant Dr. Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguezwho teaches at Willow Glen High School, San Jose Unified School District, as well as at Stanford University, noted:

The Bracero Program was a series of laws that allowed the United States to recruit temporary guest workers (braceros, lit. “individuals who work with their arms”) from Mexico. As the United States entered World War II, its agriculture and railroad industries witnessed a shortage of laborers due to the U.S. military draft and the forced removal of Japanese Americans from the West Coast of the United States. The United States and Mexico entered into legal agreements that would ultimately be known as the Bracero Program, which operated from 1942 to 1964. Braceros worked throughout the United States, but the largest concentration of braceros was employed in California. There were an estimated 4.5 million contracts signed by braceros over the 22-year period. Today a large proportion of the Mexican American population can trace its heritage to former braceros.

 

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people in red Stanford sweatshirts holding certificates in front of an American flag


As a child of farm laborers in the 1950s and 1960s, I worked side-by-side with braceros. My neighbors in San Jose were braceros. Braceros were either paid by the hour or compensated by the amount of crops that they harvested, known as piecework. The braceros’ punch cards usually had at least double the punches that mine had. As a child, I felt more Mexican than Japanese American. Thus, it was particularly meaningful for me to facilitate an event called “Legacies of the Bracero Program, 1942–1964,” during which nine former braceros were recognized by SPICE, FSI, and the Center for Latin American Studies (CLAS). The event took place at Stanford University on February 27, 2014; photo above courtesy Rod Searcey. The event was conceptualized by Ornelas and organized by Ornelas and SPICE Event Coordinator Sabrina Ishimatsu. Featured speakers were former FSI Director Professor Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, former CLAS Director Professor Rodolfo Dirzo (the son of a bracero), and Ornelas. The year, 2014, marked the 50th anniversary since the end of the Bracero Program.

Ornelas has spent the last 14 years conducting research and memorializing braceros. In addition to the event described above, he has conducted numerous public history events with colleagues and was instrumental in the naming a 17-mile stretch of U.S. Highway 101 as the Bracero Memorial Highway and Monterey County’s recognition of braceros. The naming of the Bracero Memorial Highway—and more recently the installation of a cross—are memorials to a tragic accident in Chualar, Monterey County, that killed 32 braceros on September 17, 1963. On June 2, 2020, Ornelas spoke about the history of the Bracero Program and shared reflections on “Visualizing the Essential: Mexicans in the U.S. Agricultural Workforce” in a webinar attended by educators nationwide. Since December 31, 2024 marks the 60th anniversary of the end of the Bracero Program, I highly recommend the use of the recorded webinar in high school classrooms and colleges in the United States and Mexico. The webinar recording, along with a classroom-friendly discussion guide, can be accessed here. The webinar was co-sponsored with CLAS and facilitated by SPICE Instructional Designer Jonas Edman. Also, a talk by Ornelas in Monterey County last year inspired the development of a mural that was commissioned by Monterey County and will be featured in Chualar.

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black and white photo of a child standing in front of a house


My mother, who worked with braceros since shortly after her release from the incarceration camp in Arizona in 1945 until 1964, died this year. While clearing out her home, I decided to keep the comal—a flat griddle—that the braceros who lived next to me used to make tortillas. The braceros gave the comal to my mother before their return to Mexico, and my mother had saved it because she recalled—as I do, as well—the many times that the braceros made tortillas for me. More importantly, she had the highest respect for their work ethic. I used to walk regularly to the bracero home to enjoy tortillas; photo above circa 1957. As a 10-year-old in 1964, I remember the sadness that I felt when I said “adios” to my bracero co-workers and neighbors.

I think it’s important to recognize the critical contributions of the braceros not only to the U.S. economy—especially during World War II—but also to their continued contributions to the richness of U.S. history and society broadly through their descendants like Dr. Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguez.

To stay informed of SPICE news, join our email list and follow us on Facebook, X, and Instagram.

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Dr. Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguez with his grandfather, a former bracero, and family, taken during a ceremony at Stanford University
Dr. Ignacio Ornelas Rodriguez with his grandfather, a former bracero, and family, taken during a ceremony at Stanford University honoring braceros on February 27, 2014; photo courtesy Rod Searcey.
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December 31, 2024 marks the 60-year anniversary since Congress ended the Bracero Program.

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Democratic values are eroding just as citizens perceive increasing corruption, with numerous cases implicating the highest-level politicians. Could perceived increases in apex corruption be weakening democracy? We first present event study analyses of more than 170 high-profile corruption scandals involving some of the most prominent politicians in 17 Latin American countries. We show that in the aftermath of such apex corruption scandals, support for democracy falls by 0.07𝑠𝑑, support for authoritarianism rises by 11% and violent protests rise by 70%. We complement these results with a field experiment in Mexico. Randomized exposure to footage of apex corruption scandals, particularly implicating politicians known for their anticorruption platforms, decreases individuals’ support for democracy by 0.15𝑠𝑑, willingness to trust politicians and neighbors in incentivized games by 18% and 11%, volunteering as election observers by 45%, and actual voter turnout by about 5𝑝𝑝, while raising stealing from local mayors by 4%. The undermining of democratic values produces latent effects that even cumulate four months later. Seeking solutions, priming national identity proved an unsuccessful antidote, but providing exposure to national stock index funds holds some promise.

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Saumitra Jha
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Working Paper No. 4166
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On Sunday, June 2, Mexico held its federal, state, and municipal elections. Sunday’s poll was historic in more than one sense. Mexico, a democracy in its mid-twenties, had never previously embarked on an election as large in scale, with more than 20,000 vacant public offices at all levels of government to be filled by an electorate of almost 100 million eligible voters. For the first time in the country’s history, a woman, Claudia Sheinbaum, was elected to spearhead the government of the world’s most populous Spanish-speaking nation. Finally, these events took place in the shadows of record-high, albeit stable, levels of drug-related violence.

In this Q&A roundtable organized by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law’s (CDDRL) Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab (PovGov) and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a panel of scholars discuss six main insights from Mexico’s elections and what they tell us about the state of Mexico’s democracy.*

Panelists:

  • Beatriz Magaloni, Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations and Professor of Political Science in the School of Humanities and Sciences and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University
  • Tesalia Rizzo, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Merced, Research Affiliate at MIT Governance Lab, Research Affiliate at CDDRL’s Governance Project
  • Larry Diamond, William L. Clayton Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), Stanford University
  • Amrit Singh, Professor of the Practice of Law and founding Executive Director of the Rule of Law Impact Lab at Stanford Law School
  • Alberto Díaz-Cayeros, Senior Fellow at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University
  • Mariano-Florentino (Tino) Cuéllar, Visiting Scholar at Stanford Law School, President of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

 

Beatriz Magaloni, Tesalia Rizzo, Larry Diamond, Amrit Singh, Alberto Diaz-Cayeros, Tino Cuellar


*Responses have been edited for clarity and length.



1: Mexico has elected its first female president in a clean and fair election.


One of the big headlines from the elections is that Mexico elected its first female president. What explains why Mexico has accomplished this milestone, even before the United States?

Beatriz Magaloni: It is incredibly exciting, especially considering our history of machismo and a patriarchal society where women have traditionally been followers, not leaders. Mexico enacted a significant gender parity reform about two years ago, which mandates gender parity across all political parties and levels of government. This transformation to include women began then, and it is amazing that the next step is electing a woman president.

Were the elections in Mexico clean and fair by international standards?

Beatriz Magaloni: Mexico has a long history of institutional reform that created bodies like the National Electoral Institute (INE). These institutions have persisted, even though Andres Manuel López Obrador (whom everyone refers to as AMLO) tried to weaken them. Fortunately, they withstood these attacks, and we can see how essential they are for elections. I can confidently say that we had free and fair elections by international standards. Mexico has the capacity to orchestrate inspiring elections, and this should serve as a lesson to powerholders about the importance of sustaining these institutions.

What worries me about the election results is the supermajority the MORENA coalition won. Likely, Claudia has the majority necessary in both the Senate and Congress to modify the Constitution unilaterally and pass laws unilaterally. I worry that Mexico is going back to the era of hegemony we suffered from for 70 years under the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI).



2: Sheinbaum’s landslide was a referendum on the legacy of the current President, Andrés Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO).


Given the massive Movement of National Regeneration (MORENA) electoral landslide, are we witnessing the beginnings of a MORENA-dominant era in Mexican politics?

Tesalia Rizzo: MORENA, the party of the current president, has been said to draw inspiration from the PRI, which governed during those 70 years. MORENA has effectively used social policy to gain favor among Mexicans. This election demonstrated that the strategy of using social policy to gain voter favor was successful not only at the presidential level but also at the state level, gaining more states and seats in Congress. This indicates that MORENA has built a stable party and a stable electorate, suggesting a potentially dominant era for the party.

Why do you think the margin of victory was so large?  

Tesalia Rizzo: It doesn't necessarily come as a huge surprise. López Obrador's approval ratings have been off the charts and very stable for a long time. This approval is largely driven by his social policies, which have been carefully crafted and effectively implemented. This election has shown that MORENA is now a political party with strong structures across the country. People are joining MORENA not only because they see it as a party that can win elections but also because they sense stability in its structure. If we think of parties as institutionalized social movements, perhaps MORENA has followed a similar path. 



3: Mexico has cemented its position as a consolidated electoral democracy, with strong procedural safeguards and a vibrant civil society embracing democratic values.


As an observer of democracies throughout the world, does Mexico fulfill the requirements of an electoral democracy?

Larry Diamond: I think people chose the leader they wanted in Mexico. It's easier to declare this democratic when it isn't close — it was decisive, a landslide. There's no sign that I know of significant fraud in the election. There's no sign that it wasn't cleanly and efficiently administered. And there's always a question of "compared to what?" If you look at the controversies around the U.S. election, for example, it may look better or less disputed, more efficient than some of the elections we held in U.S. states. Many people in the United States might wish for a system of national electoral authority that has the technical efficiency and ability to standardize across the country, as the National Electoral Institute (INE) has.

What about the political violence that occurred before the election? Would those challenges qualify Mexico as a liberal democracy?

Larry Diamond: I think there are many things to be noted about the state of Mexican democracy before election day. Some relate to the nature of the campaign, and some to the broader character of political and civic space in Mexico. Regarding the campaign, when you have a significant number of candidates assassinated — 40 to 50 people, which is shocking and deeply distressing — this isn't necessarily a ruling party killing its opponents but indicates a state that lacks the capacity to rein in criminal and narco-trafficking violence. This kind of climate degrades the electoral environment, though I wouldn't say it alone makes Mexico a non-democracy.

The sitting president of Mexico, AMLO, has been highly critical of the autonomous body for electoral administration, the INE. From a legal standpoint, what are the risks to the institutional architecture of electoral politics in the coming years?

Amrit Singh: I think it's important to recognize that INE has been one of the crown jewels of Mexico's democracy. It is widely regarded as one of the most independent and professional election commissions in the world. Whether it continues to be as highly regarded will depend on what Claudia Sheinbaum decides to do — whether she chooses to break from President López Obrador's authoritarian agenda or to open a new chapter in Mexico in favor of democracy and the rule of law.

You described the potential consequences of MORENA moving ahead with constitutional amendments that could affect the autonomy of the electoral agency. Do you think the new government has any incentive to pursue an agenda that would debilitate INE? If so, can we still speak about an electoral democracy in Mexico?

Amrit Singh: That remains to be seen. Claudia Sheinbaum has an opportunity to open a new chapter in Mexico's democracy. She has indicated, for example, that she is in favor of voting for judges, a proposal submitted by President López Obrador to Mexico's Congress back in February 2024. Whether she sticks to that position still remains to be seen. It is worrying that the constitutional reform proposals by President López Obrador may become a reality because MORENA and its allies now have a qualified majority in Congress. Over the last few years under President López Obrador's administration, we have seen systematic attacks on the independent institutions necessary for safeguarding democracy in Mexico. These attacks targeted INE, INAI (the freedom of information agency), and the federal judiciary. If such attacks continue under the new administration, there will be nothing left to speak of in terms of electoral democracy in Mexico. These institutions are essential for maintaining the checks and balances and the separation of powers necessary to uphold the rule of law and individual rights and freedoms.



4: Mexico is still lacking some of the civil protections of liberal democracy, the most apparent being insecurity and drug violence, which remain top unresolved issues.


How is it possible for the incumbent party, MORENA, to be reelected despite the security conditions and maintenance of high levels of violence?

Beatriz Magaloni: The main issue in Mexico is the violence surrounding elections, not necessarily from political parties or the incumbent attacking opposition candidates, but from organized crime. These were the most violent elections we've had, with at least 30 candidates for municipal presidencies and other positions killed and more than 200 attacked. This is deeply concerning because it means that organized crime, not just voters, is influencing election outcomes. How do we explain AMLO's victory? Because, although it is Claudia's victory, it is essentially a referendum on AMLO’s performance. He is an incredibly intelligent politician who has been able to amass electoral support through various mechanisms, including delivering entitlements and public services to poor and middle-class voters.

Xóchitl Gálvez ran a campaign highlighting the violence and harshly criticizing AMLO’s "hugs, not bullets" slogan. Claudia has said she will increase the size of the National Guard. How do you think this will work out in a liberal democracy, having an even larger military presence in Mexico?

Beatriz Magaloni: Xóchitl didn't win for two main reasons. One, she was embraced by political parties like the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD), and the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), which have been discredited for their own roles in perpetuating violence. President Calderón started the war on drugs, and during President Peña Nieto’s administration, we saw events like the disappearance of the Ayotzinapa students, which increased corruption and impunity. This association with discredited parties hurt her campaign. Secondly, she was competing against an incumbent who was very popular. People don’t really know who Claudia is, and we are eager to learn what she brings to politics at this critical juncture, with high levels of violence and immigration issues.



5: Popular welfare programs glue together the MORENA coalition, but these might not be enough to reduce poverty and improve well-being.


What do you expect will happen with poverty alleviation and the provision of basic public services like health and education?  

Alberto Díaz-Cayeros: The government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) always claimed to prioritize the poor. "Primero los pobres" ("first the poor") was the slogan in his campaign, and Claudia Sheinbaum repeated it yesterday in her victory speech. It is paradoxical that a government claiming to support the poor removed the most crucial and effective poverty reduction program Mexico has had in two decades. Claudia Sheinbaum is not obligated to follow AMLO's exact policies. I expect she will likely listen to experts and policy advice from those working on poverty relief globally and in Mexico. Hopefully, she will incorporate elements of conditional cash transfer programs that have successfully alleviated poverty worldwide.

Claudia Sheinbaum's proposals and the legacy of her predecessor, AMLO, suggest that she aims to build on the foundation laid by Mexico's fourth transformation. What do you expect her social policies to look like? Will she move Mexico closer to a universal welfare state?

Alberto Díaz-Cayeros: The current government has aimed to create programs that move Mexico towards a universal welfare state. AMLO's significant poverty reduction achievement was raising the minimum wage, which benefited moderately poor families but not the extremely poor. But the removal of the conditional cash transfer program and Seguro Popular led to a loss of access to public health for a significant portion of the population. Moving towards universalization will require substantial funding and a focus on labor market reforms.



6: This election matters to Americans and the world for the sake of global economic growth, hemispheric security, and multicultural diversity in the U.S.


Why does the Mexican election matter to the U.S.?

Tino Cuéllar: Mexico has become a particularly massive trading partner of the United States, the largest trading partner now that trade with China has declined due to trade tensions. Additionally, the law enforcement and rule of law interests of the United States and Mexico often converge. So, the well-being of the United States, its relationship to the larger world, and issues many Americans care deeply about — security, migration, and economic prosperity — are all interconnected with Mexico.

Compared to U.S. elections, how vibrant is Mexican democracy?

Tino Cuéllar: In both countries, democratic processes have withstood attacks and efforts to undermine institutions. However, the success of democracy depends not only on formal legal arrangements — such as electoral institutes, courts, and prosecutors — but also on norms, traditions, and habits of behavior. An important distinction in discussions about Mexican democracy is the risk of violence that candidates face. In the U.S., running for office generally does not expose one to great risk due to law enforcement and norms. In Mexico, improving democracy further will involve securing the well-being of candidates, even if their agendas might upset people who might target or threaten them. In principle, there are many common interests that Mexico and the United States share. They both have an interest in keeping borders secure, making economies vibrant, and allowing the peoples of both countries to share in a more prosperous hemispheric economy, which is good for both countries and the world.

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Presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum of ''Sigamos Haciendo Historia'' coalition waves at supporters after the first results released by the election authorities show that she leads the polls by wide margin after the presidential election at Zocalo Square on June 03, 2024 in Mexico City, Mexico.
Presidential candidate Claudia Sheinbaum of ''Sigamos Haciendo Historia'' coalition waves at supporters after the first results released by the election authorities show that she leads the polls by wide margin after the presidential election at Zocalo Square on June 03, 2024 in Mexico City, Mexico.
Manuel Velasquez/Getty Images
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The Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law’s Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab, in collaboration with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, invited a panel of scholars to discuss the implications of Mexico’s elections and to analyze the political context in which they were held.

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Rachel Owens
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Can indigenous communities ruling through politically autonomous institutions better protect against cartel takeover? In a CDDRL seminar series talk, Beatriz Magaloni, the Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations, a Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Director of CDDRL’s Poverty, Violence, and Governance Lab argued that in Mexico, indigenous communities ruled by traditional governance have proven more resilient against cartel takeovers than comparable municipalities relying on state-backed security provision. 

Existing literature typically frames violence in developing countries as a manifestation of state weakness. But, in many areas of the world, organized criminal groups infiltrate the state, buying off intelligence, protection, and impunity. 

In Mexico, cartels infiltrate local governments by funding political campaigns, killing those who refuse to be bought off. In this context, the selection of leaders through conventional Western multi-party elections is an effective vehicle through which cartels can extend their influence. 

The capture of municipal political bodies is advantageous to cartels as it allows them to diversify their revenue generation. Access to intelligence, resources, and territory makes demanding regular payments and extracting natural resources far easier. It also allows cartels to gain discretionary power in the decision of who the state grants protection to or not. This bleak reality in which the borders between the state, organized crime, rule of law, and impunity are blurred elevates the urgency of investigating to what extent “opting out” of the state represents a viable alternative in the provision of security. 

In Oaxaca and other regions across Mexico, indigenous communities have the right to govern autonomously. In their traditional form of governance, known as “usos y costumbres,” local elections and political parties are banned. Authorities are instead selected through community assemblies, in which decision-making is highly participatory. Based on this traditional governance, a growing number of indigenous communities have established community police groups, which are detached from the state and constituted by local community members with little or no professional police training. 

Importantly, autonomous indigenous municipalities still receive state transfers and cannot be punished for opting out of the party system. In conducting extensive qualitative fieldwork, Magaloni sought to understand whether this traditional governance structure prohibits cartel infiltration and keeps communities safer. 

The team hypothesized that higher levels of cartel presence would increase violence – which they proxied with homicide rates. They expected less cartel presence and less violence in Usos (autonomous indigenous communities) relative to party-controlled municipalities. Lower levels of police corruption and better deterrence against criminal cells were also expected for communities ruled by Usos

The initial exploratory analysis showed that following the autonomous governance reform, Usos communities experienced a sharp decrease in violence. When the drug war began in 2006, these communities continued to see low levels of violence, whereas comparable municipalities suffered a sharp increase. 

Magaloni employed a variety of difference in difference analyses to control for possible confounders. Usos communities were compared to similarly sized, similarly indigenous communities. Using a geographic discontinuity design, Usos were also compared to municipalities just 1 km from the border of Oaxaca – those ruled by multi-party elections. The analysis controlled for opium poppy suitability and history of ancestral governance practices. 

The analysis confirmed that the more cartel presence, the more violence a community experienced. Across all models, the team was able to conclude that Usos communities saw significantly less cartel presence, fewer homicides, and less violence. 

Magaloni’s work highlights the state's limitations in creating order in circumstances where criminal groups have compromised it. It also suggests that in the context of these predatory regimes, indigenous political autonomy can serve as a powerful rampart to the corrosive presence of organized crime.

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Beatriz Magaloni presents during a CDDRL research seminar on April 11, 2024.
Beatriz Magaloni presents during a CDDRL research seminar on April 11, 2024. Photo: Rachel Cody Owens
Rachel Cody Owens
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Beatriz Magaloni, the Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations, presented her latest research during a CDDRL seminar talk.

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Ten years of debates over democratic backsliding have failed to produce many examples of independent institutions thwarting authoritarian attempts on democracy. Yet Latin American courts seem to be countering this larger trend. The three largest countries in the region—Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia—have produced robust institutions able to check leaders with authoritarian tendencies, with high courts playing a fundamental role. In a dramatic succession of recent cases, courts in these three countries have been innovative, acted with a high degree of independence, and appear legitimately interested in defending democratic norms. All of this is profoundly surprising. There is little to no track record of independent Latin American judiciaries that stand in the way of authoritarian governments. Closer study of these three countries is therefore critical for scholars and practitioners, who are otherwise locked in debates over the importance of judicial review in preserving democracy. After dozens of judicial reform failures since the 1990s, we may be observing some overdue success. It appears that 1990s judicial reforms are making a comeback in Latin America.

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Journal of Democracy
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Diego A. Zambrano
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