Health and Medicine

FSI’s researchers assess health and medicine through the lenses of economics, nutrition and politics. They’re studying and influencing public health policies of local and national governments and the roles that corporations and nongovernmental organizations play in providing health care around the world. Scholars look at how governance affects citizens’ health, how children’s health care access affects the aging process and how to improve children’s health in Guatemala and rural China. They want to know what it will take for people to cook more safely and breathe more easily in developing countries.

FSI professors investigate how lifestyles affect health. What good does gardening do for older Americans? What are the benefits of eating organic food or growing genetically modified rice in China? They study cost-effectiveness by examining programs like those aimed at preventing the spread of tuberculosis in Russian prisons. Policies that impact obesity and undernutrition are examined; as are the public health implications of limiting salt in processed foods and the role of smoking among men who work in Chinese factories. FSI health research looks at sweeping domestic policies like the Affordable Care Act and the role of foreign aid in affecting the price of HIV drugs in Africa.

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The easy phases of China’s quest for wealth and power are over. After forty years, every one of a set of favorable conditions has diminished or vanished, and China’s future, neither inevitable nor immutable, will be shaped by the policy choices of party leaders facing at least eleven difficult challenges, including the novel coronavirus. 

See also https://aparc.fsi.stanford.edu/news/tom-fingar-and-jean-oi-preview-forthcoming-volume-fateful-decisions

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Jean C. Oi
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Taiwan is only 81 miles off the coast of mainland China and was expected to be hard hit by the coronavirus, due to its proximity and the number of flights between the island nation and its massive neighbor to the west.

Yet it has so far managed to prevent the coronavirus from heavily impacting its 23 million citizens, despite hundreds of thousands of them working and residing in China.

According to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases map, as of Tuesday there were only 42 cases and one death in Taiwan, far behind China, with more than 80,000 cases and more than 2,900 deaths. The country also lags far behind its other Asian neighbors and ranks 17th in the world for the number of global cases. As of this writing, South Korea was second, with 5,186 cases; followed by Iran with 2,336 and Italy with 2,036 people infected with the virus.

The United States currently stands at 107 known cases and six deaths.

The viral outbreak in China occurred just before the Lunar New Year, during which time millions of Chinese and Taiwanese were expected to travel for the holidays.

So what steps did Taiwan take to protect its people? And could those steps be replicated here at home?

Stanford Health Policy’s Jason Wang, MD, PhD, an associate professor of pediatrics at Stanford Medicine who also has a PhD in policy analysis, credits his native Taiwan with using new technology and a robust pandemic prevention plan put into place at the 2003 SARS outbreak.

“The Taiwan government established the National Health Command Center (NHCC) after SARS and it’s become part of a disaster management center that focuses on large-outbreak responses and acts as the operational command point for direct communications,” said Wang, a pediatrician and the director of the Center for Policy, Outcomes, and Prevention at Stanford. The NHCC also established the Central Epidemic Command Center, which was activated in early January.

“And Taiwan rapidly produced and implemented a list of at least 124 action items in the past five weeks to protect public health,” Wang said. “The policies and actions go beyond border control because they recognized that that wasn’t enough.”

Wang outlines the measures Taiwan took in the last six weeks in an article published Tuesday in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

“Given the continual spread of COVID-19 around the world, understanding the action items that were implemented quickly in Taiwan, and the effectiveness of these actions in preventing a large-scale epidemic, may be instructive for other countries,” Wang and his co-authors wrote.

Within the last five weeks, Wang said, the Taiwan epidemic command center rapidly implemented those 124 action items, including border control from the air and sea, case identification using new data and technology, quarantine of suspicious cases, educating the public while fighting misinformation, negotiating with other countries — and formulating policies for schools and businesses to follow.

Big Data Analytics

The authors note that Taiwan integrated its national health insurance database with its immigration and customs database to begin the creation of big data for analytics. That allowed them case identification by generating real-time alerts during a clinical visit based on travel history and clinical symptoms.

Taipei also used Quick Response (QR) code scanning and online reporting of travel history and health symptoms to classify travelers’ infectious risks based on flight origin and travel history in the last 14 days. People who had not traveled to high-risk areas were sent a health declaration border pass via SMS for faster immigration clearance; those who had traveled to high-risk areas were quarantined at home and tracked through their mobile phones to ensure that they stayed home during the incubation period.

The country also instituted a toll-free hotline for citizens to report suspicious symptoms in themselves or others. As the disease progressed, the government called on major cities to establish their own hotlines so that the main hotline would not become jammed.

Some might say that because Taiwan is such a small country — about 19 times smaller than Texas — it is easier to mobilize during emergencies. Yet Taiwan is particularly challenged by its proximity to China and the fact that 850,000 of its citizens reside on the mainland; another 400,000 work there. Taiwan had 2.71 million visitors from China last year.

So when the WHO was notified on Dec. 31, 2019, of a pneumonia of unknown cause in Wuhan, China, Taiwanese officials began to board planes and assess passengers on direct flights from Wuhan for fever and pneumonia symptoms before passengers could deplane.

As early as Jan. 5, notification was expanded to include any individual who had traveled to Wuhan in the past 14 days and had a fever or symptoms of upper respiratory tract infection at the point of entry. Suspected cases were screened for 26 viruses, including SARS and MERS. Passengers displaying symptoms were quarantined at home and assessed whether medical attention at a hospital was necessary.

What the U.S. Could Learn

One of Wang’s co-authors, Robert H. Brook, M.D., ScD., of the David Geffen School of Medicine at the University of California, Los Angeles, said Washington could learn a great deal from Taiwan’s so-far successful management of the virus.

“In Taiwan, diverse political parties were willing to work together to produce an immediate response to the danger,” said Brook, also of the nonprofit RAND Corporation. “Transparency was critical and frequent communication to the public from a trusted official was paramount to reducing public panic.”

The other co-author of their study is Chun Y. Ng, MBA, MPH, of The New School for Leadership in Health Care, Koo Foundation Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan.

Brook said Taiwan got out ahead of the epidemic by setting up a physical command center to facilitate rapid communications. The command center set the price of masks and used government funds and military personnel to increase mask production. By Jan. 20, the Taiwan CDC announced that it had a stockpile of 44 million surgical masks, 1.9 million N95 masks and 1,100 negative pressure isolation rooms.

“In a country as complex as the United States,” Brook said, “there needs to be a sharing of intelligence on a real-time basis among states and the federal government so that action is not delayed by going through formal channels.”

Please contact Beth Duff-Brown for media requests. 

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LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - FEBRUARY 28: A flight crew from China Airlines, wearing protective masks, stand in the international terminal after arriving on a flight from Taipei at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) on February 28, 2020 in Los Angeles, California. The World Health Organization (WHO) has raised the global coronavirus risk level to 'very high'.
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The prevalence of obesity for adults aged 19 and over in Korea has risen from 25.8% in 1998 to 35.5% 2016, while it is still low compared with other developed countries. Body mass index (BMI), focusing on weight for a given height, has traditionally been used to define obesity despite of its shortcomings of not distinguishing between muscle and fat, being inaccurate in predicting the percentage of body fat (PBF), and being not a good measure for the risk of heart attack, stroke, or death. Another measure of abdominal obesity, the z-score of the log-transformed A Body Shape Index (LBSIZ), has been recently introduced to focus on waist circumference for a given both weight and height. We examine their respective association with the risk of diabetes using a cohort data from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study.

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Wankyo Chung is a Professor in the Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health at Seoul National University, Seoul Korea. His research interests include economic evaluation of health care programs, equity in health, health policy, and prevention. He has been active as a board member of the Korea Expert Committee on Immunization Practices at Korea CDC, the Information Disclosing Council at Korea HIRA, and an editorial board member of the Korean Journal of Health Economics and Policy and the KDI Journal of Economic Policy. His work has been published regularly in leading international journals. He is currently studying risk prediction models for diabetes at the CEAS, Stanford.

Last few years, China have implemented several national initiatives, for example, the National Healthcare Improvement Initiative (NHII) launched in 2015, to improve patient experiences in healthcare, harmonize the relationship between patients and healthcare workers (i.e., doctors and nurses), and decrease medical disputes in public hospitals. However, reports of medical disputes and violence (verbal abuse or physical violence) against healthcare workers in tertiary public hospitals are still making headlines in China. To help understand and tackle these problems, based on a three-year longitudinal study (2017-2019) conducted in six leading tertiary public hospitals in Shaanxi, a west province of China, we try to depict these problems’ changes, identify the healthcare workers who are at a high risk of medical dispute and violence from patients or their families, and explore the potential causes. These findings could help governments and hospitals protect healthcare workers with more pertinence and build a better medical environment in China.

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Jinlin Liu joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center as visiting scholar during the 2019-2020 academic year from Xi'an Jiaotong University, where he serves as a researcher for the Research Center for the Belt and Road Health Policy and Health Technology Assessment. His research lies in the areas of health system and health policy in China, with emphasis on the public hospital governance and development of human resources for health. He obtains a Ph.D. in Public Administration from Xi'an Jiaotong University in 2018.

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Wankyo Chung Professor in the Department of Public Health Science, Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul Korea
Shorenstein APARC Stanford University Encina Hall E301 Stanford, CA 94305-6055
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Visiting Scholar at APARC, 2019-20
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Jinlin Liu joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) as visiting scholar during the 2019-2020 academic year from Xi'an Jiaotong University, where he serves as a researcher for the XJTU Research Center for the Belt and Road Health Policy and Health Technology Assessment.  His research focuses on public health services and healthcare governance and reform in China.  Dr. Liu obtained his Ph.D. in Public Administration from Xi'an Jiaotong University in 2018.

2019-2020 Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center Visiting Scholar
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Inequality has become an intractable feature of the rich industrialized democracies, despite consensus among mass publics and experts that more social and economic equality is desirable. This book examines the political dynamics underlying the “new normal” of high and rising inequality since 1980. To do so, it traces the largely unsuccessful attempts of west European governments during this period to reduce socioeconomic inequalities in health. In England, France, and Finland, three quite different countries that span the range of European political economies, governments stated their intention to reduce inequalities in health — yet in all three cases, they were largely unable or unwilling to do what it would take to achieve this goal. Lynch finds that when center-left politicians take up the issue of socioeconomic inequalities in health, they do so in response to perceived taboos against redistribution, public spending and market regulation in a neoliberal era. Reframing inequality as a matter of health, rather than of the maldistribution of political or economic resources, is at best a partial solution, however: It reshapes the policy-making environment surrounding social inequality in ways that make it more difficult to reduce either socioeconomic inequality or health inequalities. Technocratic, medicalized inequality discourses result in shifting the Overton window around inequality away from tried-and-true policy remedies for inequality, and toward complex policy levers that are far more likely to fail. In short, inequality persists despite growing awareness of the harms it creates because of the way political leaders choose to talk about it — and not only because of economic necessity or demands from the electorate.
 
 
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Julia Lynch

Julia Lynch is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania.  Her research focuses on the politics of inequality and social policy in the rich democracies, particularly the countries of western Europe. She has special interests in comparative health policy and the politics of health inequalities; the politics of aging; and the relationship between party systems and political economy in western Europe. Lynch serves as an expert advisor to the World Health Organization’s European regional office on issues of health equity, and is past chair of the Health Politics and Policy section of the American Political Science Association and past treasurer of the Council for European Studies. She is editor of Socio-Economic Review, a multi-disciplinary journal focusing on analytical, political and moral questions arising at the intersection of economy and society.  At Penn, Lynch is faculty director of the Penn In Washington Program and co-director of the Penn-Temple European Studies Colloquium. Lynch holds a BA from Harvard University, a PhD from the University of California, Berkeley, and has held visiting appointments at the European University Institute, Sciences Po, and Oxford.
 
Julia Lynch Speaker University of Pennsylvania
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Explore our series of multimedia interviews and Q&As with the contributors to this volume: 


China's future will be determined by how its leaders manage its myriad interconnected challenges. In Fateful Decisions, leading experts from a wide range of disciplines eschew broad predictions of success or failure in favor of close analyses of today's most critical demographic, economic, social, political, and foreign policy challenges. They expertly outline the options and opportunity costs entailed, providing a cutting-edge analytic framework for understanding the decisions that will determine China's trajectory.

Xi Jinping has articulated ambitious goals, such as the Belt and Road Initiative and massive urbanization projects, but few priorities or policies to achieve them. These goals have thrown into relief the crises facing China as the economy slows and the population ages while the demand for and costs of education, healthcare, elder care, and other social benefits are increasing. Global ambitions and a more assertive military also compete for funding and policy priority. These challenges are compounded by the size of China's population, outdated institutions, and the reluctance of powerful elites to make reforms that might threaten their positions, prerogatives, and Communist Party legitimacy. In this volume, individual chapters provide in-depth analyses of key policies relating to these challenges. Contributors illuminate what is at stake, possible choices, and subsequent outcomes. This volume equips readers with everything they need to understand these complex developments in context.

Available May 2020.

This book is part of the Stanford University Press series, "Studies of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center"

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Knowles Professor
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Laurence Baker is the Knowles Professor, a Professor of Health Policy and a Senior Fellow of the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. He is an economist interested in the organization and economic performance of the U.S. healthcare system, and his research has investigated a range of topics including financial incentives in healthcare, competition in healthcare markets, health insurance and managed care, and healthcare technology adoption. Baker has been elected to the National Academy of Medicine, and is a recipient of the ASHE medal from ASHEcon and the Alice Hersch Award from AcademyHealth. He received his BA from Calvin College, and his MA and PhD in economics from Princeton University.

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More than 80% of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and diabetes mellitus (DM) burden now lies in low and middle-income countries. Thus, there is an urgent need to identify and implement the most cost-effective interventions, particularly in the resource-constraint South Asian settings. A 2018 systematic review evaluated the cost-effectiveness of individual-level, group-level and population-level interventions to control CVD and DM in South Asia. Of the 2949 identified studies through a search of 14 electronic databases up to 2016, 42 met full inclusion criteria. Critical appraisal of studies revealed 15 excellent, 18 good and 9 poor quality studies. Most studies were from India (n=37), followed by Bangladesh (n=3), Pakistan (n=2) and Bhutan (n=1). The economic evaluations were based on observational studies (n=9), randomised trials (n=12) and decision models (n=21). Together, these studies evaluated 301 policy or clinical interventions or combination of both. We found a large number of interventions were cost-effective aimed at primordial prevention (tobacco taxation, salt reduction legislation, food labelling and food advertising regulation), and primary and secondary prevention (multidrug therapy for CVD in high-risk group, lifestyle modification and metformin treatment for diabetes prevention, and screening for diabetes complications every 2–5 years). Significant heterogeneity in analytical framework and outcome measures used in these studies restricted meta-analysis and direct ranking of the interventions by their degree of cost-effectiveness. The cost-effectiveness evidence for CVD and DM interventions in South Asia is growing, but most evidence is from India and limited to decision modelled outcomes. There is an urgent need for formal health technology assessment and policy evaluations in South Asia and other low- and middle- income countries using local research data.

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I am Dr. Kavita Singh, interested in global cardiometabolic disease epidemiology and economic evaluations of interventions for prevention and control of chronic diseases in low- and middle- income countries. I am an Epidemiologist by training, and work as a research scientist at the Public Health Foundation of India. My research work has primarily focused on evaluating the long-term effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a multicomponent quality improvement intervention (consisting of decision-support electronic health records to enhance physician’s responsiveness and care coordinators to improve patient’s adherence to therapy) in 1,146 patients with type 2 diabetes attending 10 tertiary care clinics in India and Pakistan as part of the National Heart Lung Blood Institute funded CARRS Trial. Recently, I have been awarded the Emerging Global Leader Award (K43 grant, 2019-2024), funded by the National Institutes of Health, Fogarty International Centre to conduct a research project that aims to develop and test the feasibility of a multicomponent cardiovascular quality improvement strategy for patients with established cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in India.

Kavita Singh 2019-2020 Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center Visiting Scholar
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Given the significant health risks faced by households in developing countries, publicly provided health insurance may confer important benefits. Yet, demand for formal insurance is often found to be low. Since health insurance may be relatively unfamiliar to many households, understanding the factors that shape households’ demand for, and ability to utilize, insurance is important for research and policy. It is also important to understand the health and financial impacts of health insurance. We shed light on these questions using a two-stage randomized control trial in Karnataka, India. Many households are willing to pay for insurance. Households’ ability to successfully utilize the insurance is limited, however, especially when only a small fraction of the community has access to insurance. When a higher share of the community has access, households are more able to benefit, suggesting that harnessing community learning is important in designing the rollout of health insurance.

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Cynthia Kinnan is an assistant professor of economics at Tufts University and a Research Associate of the NBER. She holds a Ph.D. in economics from MIT. Her research lies in the areas of economic development and social networks, with emphasis on understanding linkages between formal finance (including insurance and microcredit) and informal networks. She has been a recipient of research grants from the International Growth Centre, the Tata Centre for Development, and others. Her work has been featured in outlets including the Economist and the NBER Digest and been published in journals including the American Economic Review and the American Economic Journal – Applied Economics.

Advisory on Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

In accordance with university guidelines, if you (or a spouse/housemate) have returned from travel to mainland China in the last 14 days, we ask that you DO NOT come to campus until 14 days have passed since your return date and you remain symptom-free. For more information and updates, please refer to the Stanford Environmental Health & Safety website: https://ehs.stanford.edu/news/novel-coronavirus-covid-19

Cynthia Kinnan Assistant Professor of Economics, Tufts University and Research Associate of the NBER.
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Title: Value Based Purchasing for Physician Services 

Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, M.D., Ph.D
Professor of Medicine (CHP/PCOR) 

Jay Bhattacharya is a professor of medicine and a CHP/PCOR core faculty member. His research focuses on the constraints that vulnerable populations face in making decisions that affect their health status, as well as the effects of government policies and programs designed to benefit vulnerable populations. He has published empirical economics and health services research on the elderly, adolescents, HIV/AIDS and managed care.

Research In Progress
In order to control the growth of Medicare spending, the federal government has adopted a policy aimed at inducing physicians to form coordinated care organizations that assume part of the financial risk associated with low value care.  At the same time, an alternative policy has focused on developing direct clinician levels measures of the value of care, and tied these measures to payment. The alternative policy leaves in place the structure of fee-for-service payment, but superimposes value-based purchasing incentives. In this talk, I will argue that the latter structure, properly implemented, is much more likely to succeed in transforming American health care to emphasize high value care.

CHP/PCOR Conference Room
Encina Commons, Room 119
615 Crothers Way, Stanford, CA 94305

Jay Bhattacharya
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