Stanford University

Foreign Policy

H.R. McMaster

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Bernard and Susan Liautaud Visiting Fellow
hrmcmaster.jpg PhD

H. R. McMaster was the 26th assistant to the president for National Security Affairs. He served as a commissioned officer in the United States Army for thirty-four years before retiring as a Lieutenant General in June 2018.

From 2014 to 2017 McMaster designed the future army as the director of the Army Capabilities Integration Center and the deputy commanding general of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC). As commanding general of the Maneuver Center of Excellence at Fort Benning, he oversaw all training and education for the army’s infantry, armor, and cavalry force. His extensive experience leading soldiers and organizations in wartime includes commander of the Combined Joint Inter-Agency Task Force—Shafafiyat in Kabul, Afghanistan from 2010 to 2012; commander of the 3rd Armored Cavalry Regiment in Iraq from 2005 to 2006; and Commander of Eagle Troop, 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment in Operation Desert Storm from 1990 to 1991. McMaster also served overseas as advisor to the most senior commanders in the Middle East, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

McMaster led or col-ed important strategic assessments including the revision of Iraq strategy during the “surge” of 2007 and efforts to develop security forces and governmental institutions in post-war Iraq. In 2009–2010, he co-led an assessment and planning effort to develop a comprehensive strategy for the greater Middle East.

McMaster was an assistant professor of history at the United States Military Academy from 1994 to 1996 where he taught undergraduate courses in military history and history of the Korean and Vietnam Wars. He also taught a graduate course on the history of military leadership for officers enrolled in the Columbia University MBA program.

He is author of the award-winning book, Dereliction of Duty: Lyndon Johnson, Robert McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Lies that Led to Vietnam. He has published scores of essays, articles, and book reviews on leadership, history, and the future of warfare in many publications including Foreign Affairs, The Wall Street Journal, and The New York Times. He was a contributing editor for Survival: Global Politics and Strategy from 2010 to 2017.

McMaster was commissioned as an officer in the United States Army upon graduation from the United States Military Academy in 1984. He holds a PhD in military history from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Indonesian Foreign Policy: Between Two Reefs Again?

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The National Monument in Jakarta City, Indonesia. Photo: Ali Trisno Pranoto via Getty Images.

“Now and in years to come, Indonesia will do well to avoid shackling itself to a reactive-passive neutrality between the US and China,” writes Donald K. Emmerson for The Jakarta Post ahead of the 2018 Conference on Indonesian Foreign Policy, held on October 20 in Kota Kasablanka, Jakarta. “Indonesia should feel free to be free and proactive, adopting the foreign policy that best serves its interests, including its interest in helping to heal an all too plausibly broken — or breaking — and rapidly warming world.”
 
 
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The National Monument in Jakarta City, Indonesia.
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Eun Young Park

616 Serra StreetEncina Hall E301Stanford, CA94305-6055
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eun_young_park.jpg J.S.D., L.L.M.
Eun Young Park joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) during the 2018-2019 academic year from the law firm of Kim & Chang where he serves as a partner and co-chair of international arbitration and litigation practice group.  Dr. Park has served as Judge in the Seoul District Court during the Kim Young Sam government. After joining Kim & Chang he has focused on international dispute resolution including trade sanctions, transnational litigation, and international arbitration. He was appointed to Vice-President of the London Court of International Arbitration and a Member of the Court of Arbitration of the Singapore International Arbitration Centre. He has taught in many universities including SKK University School of Law as an adjunct professor. His research focuses on the possibility of establishing dispute resolution mechanism in the transition of East Asian countries. The research interests encompass decisions from international tribunal arising out of international and transnational disputes of various areas including boundaries, economic disputes, and reparation arising out of transitional justice; trends and efforts to establish an independent judicial body to cope with conflicts and disputes in the region. Dr. Park is an editor of Korean Arbitration Review and has published articles including "Appellate Review in Investor State Arbitration," Reshaping the Investor-State Dispute Settlement System: Journeys for the 21st Century and "Rule of Law in Korea," Taiwan University Journal of Law. He is an author of a book entitled "The Analysis of the Iran Sanctions Act of the United States and the Strategy of the Overseas Construction Project” (in Korean). 

He holds a J.S.D. and LL.M. from NYU School of Law and M. Jur. and B. Jur. from Seoul National University.

Visiting Scholar at APARC

The Hell of Good Intentions: America's Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U.S. Primacy

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Abstract: In 1992, the United States stood at the pinnacle of world power and Americans were confident that a new era of peace and prosperity was at hand. Twenty-five years later, those hopes have been dashed. Relations with Russia and China have soured, the European Union is wobbling, democracy is in retreat, and the United States is stuck in costly and pointless wars.

The root of this dismal record is the foreign policy elite’s stubborn commitment to a strategy of “liberal hegemony.” Since the end of the Cold War, Republicans and Democrats alike have tried to use U.S. power to spread democracy, and other liberal values around the world. This strategy was doomed to fail, but its proponents elite were never held accountable and kept repeating the same mistakes. 

Donald Trump won the presidency promising to end these misguided policies, but his erratic style of governing and flawed grasp of world politics have made a bad situation worse. The best alternative is a return to a strategy of “offshore balancing,” eschewing regime change, nation-building, and other forms of global social engineering.  This long-overdue shift will require creating a foreign policy elite with a more realistic view of American power. 

 

Speaker Bio: Stephen M. Walt is Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School. He is a contributing editor at Foreign Policy, co-editor of the Cornell Studies in Security Affairs, and was elected a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in May 200.  He received the ISA’s Distinguished Senior Scholar award in 2014.  His writings include The Origins of Alliances (1987) Revolution and War (1996), Taming American Power: The Global Response to U.S. Primacy, and The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy (co-authored with John J. Mearsheimer, 2007).  His latest book is The Hell of Good Intentions: America’s Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U.S. Primacy (2018).

Stephen Walt Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School
Seminars
Research Seminar Series

Taiwan’s National Security Strategy during a Time of Uncertainty

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With the looming great power competitions, Dr. Huang will discuss the concept of “free and open Indo-Pacific,” China’s rapid expansion of economic and military sphere of influence, and a critical examination of Xi Jinping’s “Chinese Dream” agenda from Taiwan’s perspectives. He will then inform and explain Taiwan’s current national security strategy, defense policy and the military modernization directions. Lastly, Dr. Huang will address current issues across the Taiwan Strait and the prospect of presidential elections in 2020.

SPEAKER:
Dr. Alexander C. Huang, Senior Associate (Non-resident), Freeman Chair in China Studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Alexander C. Huang

BIO:
Alexander Chieh-cheng Huang is a professor and has been director of the Institute of Strategic Studies and the Institute of American Studies at Tamkang University, Taiwan. He is also a senior associate at CSIS with the Freeman Chair in China Studies. Dr. Huang previously served in the Taiwan government as deputy minister of the Mainland Affairs Council and has worked closely with consecutive governments on foreign and security policy matters. He spent nearly 15 years in the United States before moving back to Taiwan in 2000. He was a senior fellow in the International Security Program at CSIS (1999–2000) and a visiting fellow in the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution (1998–1999). In addition, he taught Chinese foreign policy and U.S. security policy at the University of Maryland at College Park (1998–2000). Between 1993 and 1998, he was a senior consultant on political and security affairs for the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington, D.C. 

Dr. Huang received his master’s degree from the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University and his doctorate from the Department of Political Science at George Washington University. He specializes in Asian and Chinese foreign and security affairs and is a nationally syndicated columnist for the United Daily, the Journalist, and Want China News in Taiwan. He has also been frequently interviewed by local and international media on security, foreign, defense, and cross-strait affairs. As a leading specialist in war-gaming, Dr. Huang has designed and directed more than 30 senior-level interagency political-military war games for the Taiwan government.
Philippines Conference Room Encina Hall, 3rd Floor 616 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305
Alexander Huang <i>Senior Associate (Non-resident), Freeman Chair in China Studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies</i>

From Within and Without: Taiwan’s New Security Challenges

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From Within and Without: Taiwan’s New Security Challenges

Since 2016, Beijing’s pressure campaign on Taiwan has threatened the island’s international space and domestic tranquility. Few, if any, areas of politics have gone untouched. Whether through attempts to pick off Taiwan’s diplomatic partners or lure away the island’s talent, the full range of PRC statecraft is on display. Taiwan’s political dynamics — especially the solidification of Taiwanese identity and collapse of the Kuomintang — also appear to have driven an aggressive shift in Beijing’s approach to political influence operations to include pressure on international companies. The shift in intensity and tactics raises important questions about Taiwan’s future and dealing with an increasingly powerful PRC.

Peter Matis
Peter Mattis is a Research Fellow in China Studies at the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation and a contributing editor at War on the Rocks. He was a Fellow in the China Program at The Jamestown Foundation, where he also served as editor of the foundation’s China Brief, a biweekly electronic journal on greater China, from 2011 to 2013. Mr. Mattis also worked as a counterintelligence analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency. He received his M.A. in Security Studies from Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service and earned B.A.s in Political Science and Asian Studies from the University of Washington in Seattle. Mr. Mattis’s analysis of China and intelligence has appeared in The National Interest, China Brief, Sydney Morning Herald, The Hill, Jane’s Intelligence Review, Taipei Times, the East-West Center’s Asia-Pacific Bulletin, The Diplomat, War on the Rocks, the Asia Society’s ChinaFile, Cipher Brief, the International Journal of Intelligence and Counterintelligence, and Studies in Intelligence.  Mr. Mattis is the author of Analyzing the Chinese Military: A Review Essay and Resource Guide on the People’s Liberation Army (2015) and co-author of a forthcoming handbook on Chinese intelligence.

Peter Mattis <i>Research Fellow, China Studies, at Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation</i>
Lectures

Gi-Wook Shin on Korea

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Gi-Wook Shin, director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and of the Korea Program, regularly writes on Korean affairs for Korean audience. His recent articles in Munhwa Ilbo, a South Korean daily newspaper, are listed below. Note: these articles are written in Korean.

Three ambiguities should be resolve in Hanoi (Gi-Wook Shin, February 13, 2019)

Come and See Silicon Valley, the Front Line for the U.S.-China Technology War (Gi-Wook Shin, January 23, 2019)

The Danger of the Administrative Politicization of the Moon Government (Gi-Wook Shin, January, 9, 2019)

Populism Politics and Democracy in Korea (Gi-Wook Shin, November 28, 2018)

BTS and Kim Jong Un are well-known to Americans (Gi-Wook Shin, November 7, 2018)

North Korea nuclear issue: A chronic disease (Gi-Wook Shin, October 17, 2018)

This time North Korea must take the opportunity missed 20 years ago (Gi-Wook Shin, September 19, 2018)

The Danger of a Compromised Alliance (Gi-Wook Shin, August 1, 2018)

With Trade War, Will U.S. and China Fall into Thucydides Trap?  (Gi-Wook Shin, July 18, 2018)

Three Track approach is still valid in dealing with North Korea nuclear issues (Gi-Wook Shin, July 4, 2018)

Withdrawal of US troops from South Korea now becomes an option (Gi-Wook Shin, June 20, 2018)

Risky game between North Korea and U.S. (Gi-Wook Shin, May 30, 2018)

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Stanford researchers release risk-management roadmap to denuclearization in North Korea

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Immediate denuclearization of North Korea is dangerous to both North Korean and American interests, say Stanford scholars in a new research report. Instead, they advocate for phased denuclearization to take place over 10 years or more, allowing the United States to reduce the greatest risks first and address the manageable risks over time.

Immediate denuclearization of North Korea is unrealistic, said Stanford scholars in an in-depth report released by the Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC).
 
Instead, denuclearization should be phased over a 10-year period to allow the United States to reduce and manage risks, said Siegfried Hecker, who authored the study with his research assistant Elliot Serbin and Robert Carlin, a visiting scholar at CISAC.
 
In the report, the scholars laid out a “roadmap” for denuclearization, recommending what they call a “halt, roll back and eliminate” approach. Their advice – which includes informative color charts and detailed, qualitative analysis – emerged from a longer-term project about the nuclear history of North Korea between 1992 and 2017.
 
According to the research, the most important steps toward denuclearization include halting nuclear tests, stopping intermediate or long-range missile tests, stopping the production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium, and banning all export of nuclear weapons, materials or technologies to North Korea.
 
“The roadmap lays out a reasonable timeline for denuclearization, but politics may delay final denuclearization as much as 15 years,” said Hecker, who worked at the Los Alamos National Laboratory for almost two decades, where he served as its directors for 11 of those years. He joined CISAC as a senior fellow in 2005.
 
Building trust and interdependence
In the short term, North Korea and the United States should take steps to build trust and interdependence, which the researchers believe are pivotal for a viable long-term solution like complete demilitarization of North Korea’s nuclear program. North Korea, they argue, will likely want to retain some parts of its nuclear program as a hedge should any potential agreement fall apart. This is a manageable risk, they said.
 
The scholars also encourage Pyongyang to front-load its concrete plan towards  permanent nuclear dismantlement to make a phased approach more appealing to the US administration. This would include actions like halting nuclear and missile tests for intercontinental ballistic missiles.
 
According to Hecker, North Korea’s recent demolition of its nuclear test site is a significant step in that direction.
 
“The so-called ‘Libya model’ – complete and immediate denuclearization – is not a viable solution,” Hecker said. “Our approach leaves each party with a manageable level of risk. Even though it takes longer, it is safer for the world.”
 
Hecker also encouraged the US to recognize North Korea’s desire for civilian programs, including energy production, the use of radioactive substances in medical research, diagnosis and treatment, and a peaceful space program. These types of civilian programs can also foster opportunities for a collaborative relationship between the United States and North Korea. Further, increased cooperation –including with South Korea – can help make efforts for verification and monitoring with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) more reliable. The verification process that will confirm to what extent North Korea dismantles and destroys its military nuclear program is a big issue for negotiations, the scholars said.
 
Recent reconciliation
Critically, the researchers note that recent détente between North Korea and South Korea provides a window of opportunity to accomplish denuclearization – and that the US should take advantage of that window smartly. They  said they hope that the risk-management approach outlined in the report can maximize chances for a successful agreement.
 
“In the past, the US has missed opportunities to manage incremental risk,” Hecker said. “Now is the time to pay attention to that history and be prepared to implement a risk-management approach to denuclearization.”
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Siegfried Hecker meets with members of North Korea’s nuclear scientific community during a visit to Yongbyon.
Siegfried Hecker meets with members of North Korea’s nuclear scientific community during a visit to Yongbyon.
Courtesy Siegfried Hecker
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Chin-Hao Huang

616 Serra StreetEncina Hall E301Stanford, CA94305-6055
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chin_hao_huang.jpg Ph.D.
Chin-Hao Huang joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Center as the Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Fellow on Contemporary Southeast Asia from Yale-NUS College where he is assistant professor of political science. His research interests focus on the international relations of East Asia, Southeast Asian politics, and Chinese foreign policy. During his time at Shorenstein APARC, Huang will carry out research on the conditions under which the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is more or less likely to achieve cooperation from external major powers like China, particularly in such regional flashpoints as the South China Sea. Huang’s research has been published in The China Quarterly, The China Journal, and International Peacekeeping, and in edited volumes through Oxford University Press and Routledge, among others. He received the American Political Science Association (APSA) Foreign Policy Section Best Paper Award (2014) for his research on China’s compliance behavior in multilateral security institutions. His book manuscript under preparation for review is on Power, Restraint, and China’s Rise and explains how, when, and why Chinese foreign policy decision-makers exercise restraint in international security. He received his PhD in political science from the University of Southern California and BS with honors from Georgetown University.  chinhao.huang@yale-nus.edu.sgT (US): (765) 464.9578T (Singapore): +65.8661.4050
Visiting Scholar
2018-2019 Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Fellow on Contemporary Southeast Asia

North Korea Summit Diplomacy: Round 2

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After his secret meeting with President Xi Jinping of China in March, North Korea’s Kim Jong-un is set to meet with President Moon Jae-in of South Korea on April 27 at Peace House, south of the military demarcation line. This would make Kim Jong-un the first North Korean leader to set foot in South Korea since the Korean War. A panel of Korea experts will engage in discussion about outcomes and implications of this historic summit.

Panelists:

Gi-Wook Shin, Director of Shorenstein APARC; Senior Fellow at FSI; Professor of Sociology, Stanford University

Kathleen Stephens, William J. Perry Fellow at Shorenstein APARC; former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea

Philip Yun, Executive Director and Chief Operation Officer of Ploughshares Fund; former vice president at The Asia Foundation

Yong Suk Lee (moderator), Deputy Director of Korea Program, Shorenstein APARC; SK Center Fellow at FSI, Stanford University

 

Panel Discussions
Korean Studies Colloquium Series
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