About the event: Why do adversaries sometimes cooperate to restrain their military competition? Why do they design arms control agreements with intrusive verification in some cases but rely on minimal transparency in others? Amidst ongoing international competition, arms control remains rare despite potential mutual benefits, and agreements vary dramatically in their approaches to monitoring. This book reveals how uncertainty from domestic political changes - such as leadership transitions or social unrest - can enable arms control. It identifies two paths to agreement: during periods of uncertainty, states that previously relied on informal understandings hedge by establishing lightly-monitored agreements, while those that anticipated deception take calculated risks through agreements with intensive verification. Through comprehensive data analysis and rich case studies, Jane Vaynman challenges conventional wisdom about uncertainty in international relations while offering insights for policymakers. As states confront challenges from nuclear competition to emerging technologies, understanding when arms control becomes viable is more vital than ever.

About the speaker: Dr. Jane Vaynman is an Assistant Professor of Strategic Studies at the School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) at Johns Hopkins University. Dr. Vaynman’s work focuses on security cooperation between adversarial states, the design of arms control agreements, and the effects of technology on patterns of international cooperation and competition. From 2022-2024, she served as a senior advisor in the Bureau of Arms Control, Deterrence, and Stability at the U.S. Department of State. Her prior academic appointments include the Department of Political Science at Temple University and the Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University. She was also previously a Lightning Scholar at Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania, a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, and a Fulbright Fellow at the Carnegie Moscow Center. Dr. Vaynman received her Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University and B.A. in international relations from Stanford University.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

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About the event: This talk will discuss recent advancements in AI for biology, and relevant security and oversight considerations. It will also discuss how policy can be used to incentivize and shape technology development for defensive purposes, clarifying how the colloquial "defensive acceleration" or d/acc concept in AI circles relates to formal offense-defense balance concepts.

About the speaker: Dr. Pannu is an Assistant Professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and Senior Scholar at the Center for Health Security. She is currently Director of Frontier Safety at the Chan Zuckerberg Biohub, a philanthropic research organization focused on AI for biology. Dr. Pannu’s primary areas of research include biosecurity, pandemic preparedness, and emerging technology security and governance. Dr. Pannu previously worked on AI-enabled diagnostics at Google and has served as a subject-matter expert for the National Academies of Sciences, the EU AI Office, and the Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense, among others. She serves on the board of Blueprint Biosecurity, a nonprofit dedicated to achieving breakthroughs in humanity's ability to prevent pandemics. Dr. Pannu regularly briefs government officials and policymakers on emerging technologies with security implications, including artificial intelligence and synthetic biology.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

No filming or recording without express permission from speaker.

About the event: Since the mid-2010s, scholars and analysts have declared the emergence of a dangerous ‘new’ or ‘third’ nuclear age. Beyond academia, the concept of the new nuclear age is proving influential with policymakers in a range of countries. The new nuclear age is understood to be characterized by technological change, nuclear multipolarity, eroding constraints on the behavior and competition of nuclear-armed states, and the likely emergence of new nuclear powers. That said, it remains unclear how we should understand the new nuclear age in broader terms: how new is it and does it require new theoretical frameworks to understand? Bell subjects the concept of the new nuclear age to scrutiny. He connects the discussion of the new nuclear age to ongoing but mostly separate debates about nuclear history and the ‘Theory of the Nuclear Revolution’ (TNR). The increasing body of literature challenging TNR reveals a more competitive, complex, and dangerous nuclear past than our prior understandings, but in doing so, it draws attention to continuities between the past and the emerging nuclear age. Bell then examines the empirical features thought to define the new nuclear age and show that many have historical precedent and do not require novel theoretical frameworks to understand. The new nuclear age may, therefore, be somewhat less new, though perhaps no less dangerous, than it appears.

About the speaker: Mark Bell is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Minnesota. His book, Nuclear Reactions: How Nuclear-Armed States Behave, won the ISA Foreign Policy Analysis Section's best book award. Other work has been published in International Organization, International Security, International Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of Strategic Studies, and Texas National Security Review. Policy-oriented work has been published in Foreign Affairs, War on the Rocks, and The Washington Quarterly. He holds a Ph.D from MIT, a Master's in Public Policy from Harvard Kennedy School, and a B.A. from St Anne’s College, Oxford University.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

No filming or recording without express permission from speaker.