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This paper starts with a comparison between the Russian policies toward the occupied Donbas regions and the Russian administration of the colonized Ukrainian lands in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. Then, we describe how these policies affected the population of the Donetsk and Luhansk Popular Republics and the position of the indigenous population in the newly established colonial framework. Finally, we describe how the  Russian government uses the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk Popular Republics as sources of ideological resources to maintain the dictatorial regime of Vladimir Putin.

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Adrian Feinberg
Anna Harvey
Lev Pushel
Thomas Sternfels
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Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Russia has experienced its largest wave of emigration since 1917. While estimates on the number of Russians who have fled wartime Russia vary widely, most sources estimate the number to be anywhere between 500,000 and 1,000,000. The majority of wartime émigrés have fled to nearby destination countries including but not limited to Georgia, Kazakhstan, Turkey and Uzbekistan, while a smaller number have gone further, relocating to countries in the EU, Southeast Asia and Latin America. Broadly speaking, the émigrés are younger and more prosperous than the average Russian citizen, have higher levels of education, and are driven more so by political push factors than members of previous waves. Many of the recent émigrés were engaged in political activism against the regime before emigrating; some worked as journalists, NGO employees, academics and activists, while others were dissidents of the regime at large.

While these general characteristics offer some clues about the composition of the wartime flight from Russia, many questions remain unanswered about the émigrés, their future prospects and their positionality in relation to Russia and their host communities. For instance, are émigrés staying in their destination countries or do they plan on relocating further? Have wartime émigrés found like-minded communities in their host countries? In what ways and to what extent have wartime émigrés participated in the civic and political life of their host communities? What is the political impact–if any–of émigrés staying in touch with loved ones back in Russia?

Given that wartime emigration from Russia is a recent and ongoing phenomenon, this memo seeks to expand our understanding of the wartime flight by leveraging one-on-one interviews with émigrés to explore the nuanced personal, social, and political dimensions of wartime emigration. By featuring individual stories, this research aims to highlight the complexities of émigré life including barriers to relocation, integration challenges, and potential political repercussions of emigration. While our small pool of interviews cannot provide a representative portrait of all wartime émigrés, we hope that these interviews can shed light on the lives of those who have fled wartime Russia and inspire further research on the wartime exodus.

Our memo is organized as follows. Part I aims to provide a general overview of the wartime exodus from Russia by providing information on the profiles of émigrés and why they decided to emigrate as well as common destinations for emigration. Part II consists of selected quotes and general takeaways from the surveys conducted with wartime émigrés from several different host countries by a colleague from Charles University. We conclude by discussing questions that remain unaddressed regarding émigrés, their future plans and their political impact on their host and home communities.

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Elizabeth Jerstad
Emma Barrosa
Anonymous Charles University Student
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Our project studies the role that fiction and non-fiction for the young audience play in present-day Russia and, more specifically, in the conceptualization of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In four critical essays, we explore the representations of the military/war-time experience in four editions for children, two of which are created and disseminated with the assistance of the state (Azbuka o Vazhnom, Zhit – Rodine sluzhit), and two others are published by independent publishing houses (Zver 44, Voina vs Detstvo). Our goal is to compare attitudes towards the war and broader, general ethical systems, communicated through these texts, and artistic devices, used to achieve these goals. We demonstrate that there is an ongoing ideological battle between the official political and liberal narratives in the children 's literature in Russia.

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Sita Antel
Elizaveta Chukhanova
Mariia Gorshkova
Simon Sergeev
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This paper explores the suppression of civic commemorative initiatives in post-Soviet Russia, particularly in the context of historical politics and national memory. The study traces the trajectory of policies regarding the commemoration of terror victims in this period, the resistance faced by such initiatives, and some of the main motives behind the state’s efforts to control historical narratives. A significant focus is on the impact of the invasion of Ukraine in accelerating the trends of historical suppression. The findings suggest a deliberate and systematic approach by the state to manipulate public perception of history to consolidate power, promote a unified national identity, and suppress alternative interpretations that could challenge the state’s narrative. This research contributes to our understanding of historical politics in Russia and the broader implications of state-controlled narratives in shaping public memory and identity. It also underscores the challenges faced by civil society in preserving historical truth in an increasingly repressive socio-political environment.

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Alexander Treshin
Angelica Krystel von Kumberg
Artur Kalandarov
Ashley Elizebeth Meyer
Mariia Kuznetcova
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This paper investigates the critical role of private satellite constellations, particularly Starlink, in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. It delves into how these systems are employed for intelligence gathering, communications, and logistical support, emphasizing their strategic importance in modern warfare. The research contributes to the discourse on the militarization of space assets, providing a nuanced understanding of the intersections between technology, ethics, and warfare.

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Hayden Fite
Rebecca Wang
Mikhail Zinovyev
Sergey Clado
Luv Jawahrani
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As the third year of Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s war of aggression is now well underway, military victories and defeats in Ukraine’s counter-offensives have served as a primary lens through which Western audiences have understood Russia’s will to continue prosecuting its illegal war. As the Kremlin’s blatant power grab offended the consciences of millions the world over, a means for the West to compel an end to Putin’s war besides military intervention proved necessary. Within short order, various NATO-aligned states led largely by the United States and European Union unveiled one of the most comprehensive and draconian sanctions packages in history.

Much less visible than the progress of Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield has been the impact of halted trade on Russia’s fiscal-military state and military-industrial capabilities. Moreover, it remains to be seen if financial disincentives can persuade Putin and his inner circle to change course, or if the Russian Federation’s strongman leader is persuaded by sheer military force alone.

This Stanford-US-Russia Forum (SURF) memorandum seeks to investigate the efficacy of Western-led sanctions regimes against the Russian Federation. We begin our inquiry with an overview of sanctions implemented after the start of the full-scale invasion and how these complemented existing sanctions responding to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. We next consider the impacts of economic sanctions on various interests of Russian industries and citizens in and outside of Russia. This paper next turns to various tactical and strategic shortcomings of historic Western sanctions strategies. Lastly, we seek to provide policy recommendations outside of those already recommended by the McFaul-Yermak sanctions working group.

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William Pirone
Grant Thieroff
Anna Siamionava
Anna Ulyanova
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CDDRL Honors Student, 2024-25
elizabeth_jerstad.jpeg

Major: International Relations
Minor: Slavic Languages & Literature
Hometown: Sioux Falls, South Dakota
Thesis Advisor: Kathryn Stoner

Tentative Thesis Title: Wartime Emigration from Russia Since February 24, 2022: Political Engagement of Émigrés Abroad

Future aspirations post-Stanford: After completing my undergraduate studies, I hope to apply to law school. I am also interested in continuing my current research projects after graduation, and am looking into avenues through which to do so.

A fun fact about yourself: I have recently gotten into rock climbing, and I'm hoping to do some outdoor bouldering while in Tbilisi this summer!

RA, 2023 Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program
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Rachel Owens
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How have pre-communist social structures persisted in Russia, and why does this persistence matter for understanding post-communist political regime trajectories? In a CDDRL seminar series talk, Tomila Lankina, Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, discussed her award-winning book, The Estate Origins of Democracy in Russia: From Imperial Bourgeoisie to Post-Communist Middle Class (Cambridge University Press, 2022)The book challenges the assumption that the 1917 revolution succeeded in leveling old estate hierarchies, arguing that these social structures persist today. 

While analyses of the bourgeoisie factor heavily into the understanding of many societies, the relevance of this group is frequently left out when discussing countries like Russia and China, on the assumption that they had been completely leveled by revolutionary ruptures. Lankina’s book critically assesses this assumption. It adopts a uniquely interdisciplinary approach, utilizing archives, subnational comparisons, statistical analysis, social network analysis, and interviews with descendants. 

In characterizing the social structure of pre-communist Russia, Lankina noted that peasants comprised 77 percent of the population on the eve of the revolution. Other social groups, which she refers to as “educated estates” because of their higher literacy rates compared to those of peasants, included the urban meshchane, the merchants, nobility, and clergy. Out of the educated estates, meshchane constituted the majority, or 10 percent of the population. While their homes appeared rather modest, members of the meshchane exhibited characteristics of the urban bourgeoisie, and even their dress differed from that of the rural estate. They enjoyed much higher literacy rates than peasants.

Lankina explained that the comparatively high status of these “educated estates” — the meshchane, merchants, nobility, and clergy — persisted even after the Bolshevik revolution. To illustrate this, she highlighted partially intact social circles of the highly networked merchants, nobles, and tsarist-inspired soviet schools. Letters from the Samara province indicate that while many high-status citizens emigrated, there were matriarchs who stayed, spreading the tsarist-era values to their children and grandchildren after the revolution. Regardless of whether this middle class was endowed with democratic values, Lankina maintained that they passed human and entrepreneurial capital onto their offspring.

How did these estates endure? While the literature clearly articulates what happened to the ruling classes following the revolution, less time has been spent understanding what happened to the educated, middle-class segments of society. How did they adapt? 

Lankina proposed three different routes. First is the “pop-up brigade,” wherein young, educated individuals traveled around promoting education to peasant workers, instantly employable and absorbable into a new society. Then there is the “museum society,” where prominent nobles and merchants joined insular cultural institutions like archives, provincial libraries, and museums. Finally, “the organization man” denotes professionally skilled individuals, such as medics, who retained their positions following the revolution as the social hierarchy got absorbed into newer organizations. 

To illustrate the significance of this persistence in social structures and values, Lankina, drawing on her co-authored paper with Alexander Libman (APSR 2021), indicated that meshchane concentration (as opposed to more recent educational indices) is a better predictor of a post-communist region’s openness, at least in the 1990s.

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Maria Popova presents in a REDS Seminar co-hosted by CDDRL and The Europe Center
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Corruption in Ukraine and EU Accession

While some observers have claimed that Ukraine’s corruption renders it unprepared for EU accession, Maria Popova’s research suggests otherwise.
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Will Dobson, book cover of "Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power," and Chris Walker
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How Can Democracies Defend Against the Sharp Power of Autocrats?

Christopher Walker, Vice President for Studies and Analysis at the National Endowment for Democracy, and Will Dobson, co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, discussed their new book, “Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power” (Johns Hopkins University Press 2023).
cover link How Can Democracies Defend Against the Sharp Power of Autocrats?
Eugene Finkel presents during a REDS Seminar co-hosted by The Europe Center and CDDRL on April 18, 2024.
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The Historical Roots of Russia’s Quest to Dominate Ukraine

According to Eugene Finkel, the Kenneth H. Keller Associate Professor of International Affairs at Johns Hopkins University, Russia’s recurrent attacks against Ukraine can be traced to issues of identity and security.
cover link The Historical Roots of Russia’s Quest to Dominate Ukraine
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Tomila Lankina’s award-winning book, “The Estate Origins of Democracy in Russia: From Imperial Bourgeoisie to Post-Communist Middle Class” (Cambridge University Press, 2022), challenges the assumption that the 1917 revolution succeeded in leveling old estate hierarchies, arguing that these social structures persist today.

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Rachel Owens
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What has driven Russia’s violence in and against Ukraine from the 19th century to the contemporary era? In a recent Rethinking European Development and Security (REDS) Seminar talk co-hosted by The Europe Center and CDDRL, Eugene Finkel, the Kenneth H. Keller Associate Professor of International Affairs at Johns Hopkins University, argued that Russia’s recurrent attacks against Ukraine can be traced to issues of identity and security. Finkel draws on what he described as a two-hundred-year-long quest by Russia to dominate Ukraine, as detailed in his upcoming book Intent to Destroy (due for release in November 2024 by Basic Books).

Reflecting on the role of Russian identity in driving the country’s attempts to capture Ukraine, Finkel pointed out that many Russians think of Ukrainians as a subbranch of the Russian people.  These stark views on identity, he noted, are partly the product of the struggle between the Russian Empire and the Polish Independence movement. In an effort to avoid Polish influence, Russia began emphasizing unity between the Russian and Ukrainian people.

Security is another key driver of Russia’s aggression. There are large geographical features that block off Ukraine from the rest of Europe, but no such dividing features exist between Ukraine and Russia. As such, any force that enters Ukraine can easily invade Russia. Historical repetition of this route has made Ukraine seemingly imperative to Russian national security.

Regime security also plays an important role. Many of the democratic ideas reaching Russia were diffused through Ukraine. Abiding by the logic of Russians and Ukrainians as one people, if Ukraine can be democratic, so can Russia. Thus, an independent democratic Ukraine poses a serious ideological threat to the regime. 

Finkel argues that identity and security have always been the driving factors of Russia’s aggression. To illustrate this continuity of this trend, he draws upon a case study from the early 20th century, namely the Russian occupation of Galicia and Bukovyna. As rising Ukrainian activism threatened the Russian empire, the regime responded with propaganda peddling the notion that Ukraine had been created to destroy Russia from within – a stark parallel to propaganda today. Russia also waged a war to “liberate” the Ukrainians, believing that annexing Galicia would allow Russia to reestablish its rightful boundaries.

The conflict resulted in violence and plunder against civilians, targeting of Ukrainian community leaders, banning Ukrainian publications, and switching the education system – actions closely mimicking those of Russia today. 

In 2022, Russia’s “divide and repress” strategy failed. Ukraine witnessed the emergence of a nation – Ukrainian identity became more pronounced. Russia’s initial plan was to repress Ukraine’s elites, not conduct mass executions. But as the war progressed and Ukrainians turned from brother to traitor, the violence escalated. 

This obsession begs the question – when will Russia’s quest to dominate Ukraine end? Or rather, how? Given the central role of identity in driving this quest, Finkel believes that the only realistic path for ending this longstanding trend is changing the education system – a path that Russia seems to be moving further away from.

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Beatriz Magaloni presents during a CDDRL research seminar on April 11, 2024.
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Can Indigenous Political Autonomy Reduce Organized Crime? Insights from Mexico

Beatriz Magaloni, the Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations, presented her latest research during a CDDRL seminar talk.
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Alisha Holland
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Infrastructure, Campaign Finance, and the Rise of the Contracting State

Harvard University Professor of Government Alisha Holland explains how the advent of public-private partnerships has shifted politicians’ orientation toward infrastructure projects.
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According to Eugene Finkel, the Kenneth H. Keller Associate Professor of International Affairs at Johns Hopkins University, Russia’s recurrent attacks against Ukraine can be traced to issues of identity and security.

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The war in Ukraine has altered the course of global history. These authors explore how.

When Vladimir Putin's forces sought to conquer Ukraine in February 2022, they did more than threaten the survival of a vulnerable democracy. The invasion unleashed a crisis that has changed the course of world affairs. This conflict has reshaped alliances, deepened global cleavages, and caused economic disruptions that continue to reverberate around the globe. It has initiated the first great-power nuclear crisis in decades and raised fundamental questions about the sources of national power and military might in the modern age. The outcome of the conflict will profoundly influence the international balance of power, the relationship between democracies and autocracies, and the rules that govern global affairs. In War in Ukraine, Hal Brands brings together an all-star cast of analysts to assess the conflict's origins, course, and implications and to offer their appraisals of one of the most geopolitically consequential crises of the early twenty-first century. Essays cover topics including the twists and turns of the war itself, the successes and failures of US strategy, the impact of sanctions, the future of Russia and its partnership with China, and more.

Contributors: Anne Applebaum, Joshua Baker, Alexander Bick, Hal Brands, Daniel Drezner, Peter Feaver, Lawrence Freedman, Francis Gavin, Brian Hart, William Inboden, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Michael Kimmage, Michael Kofman, Stephen Kotkin, Mark Leonard, Bonny Lin, Thomas Mahnken, Dara Massicot, Michael McFaul, Robert Person, Kori Schake, and Ashley Tellis.

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Book Chapters
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Chapter in War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World, edited by Hal Brands

Authors
Michael A. McFaul
Book Publisher
Johns Hopkins University Press
Number
pp. 34-54
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