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Abstract:

Arab workers participated prominently in the popular uprisings of 2011.  They shared the outrage of many of their compatriots over daily abuse by internal security forces, widespread corruption, and foreign policies subservient to U.S. interests. Their participation in those uprisings was also informed by struggles against the neoliberal economic restructuring of the region since the 1970s, which resulted in an indecent chasm between rich and poor, deteriorating working conditions and public social services, and high youth unemployment.

Egypt experienced a strike wave of unprecedented magnitude in the 2000s. Tunisia, with one exception, experienced less intense contestation by workers and others. Egyptian workers’ have had very limited influence on national politics in the post-Mubarak era.  Democratic development seems unlikely in the near future.  The Tunisian national trade union federation and its affiliates were the central force in installing procedural democracy. The nature of workers’ social movements in the 2000s partially explains these divergent outcomes.

Speaker Bio:

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Joel Beinin

Joel Beinin is the Donald J. McLachlan Professor of History and Professor of Middle East History. He received his A.B. from Princeton University in 1970, his M.A. from Harvard University in 1974, and his A.M.L.S. and Ph.D. from the University of Michigan in 1978 and 1982. He also studied at the American University of Cairo and and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. He lived in Egypt in 1969, 1980-81, 1985, 1986, 1994, 2004-05, and 2006-08 and in Israel in 1965-66, 1970-73, 1987, 1988, 1993, and 1993. He has taught Middle East history at Stanford University since 1983. From 2006 to 2008 he served as Director of Middle East Studies and Professor of History at the American University in Cairo. His research and writing focuses on workers, peasants, and minorities in the modern Middle East and on Israel, Palestine, and the Arab-Israeli conflict.

 

Beinin has written or edited nine books, most recently Social Movements, Mobilization, and Contestation in the Middle East and North Africa; co-edited with Frédéric Vairel (Stanford University Press, 2011) and The Struggle for Worker Rights in Egypt (Solidarity Center, 2010). His articles have been published in leading scholarly journals as well as The Nation, Middle East Report, The Los Angeles Times, The San Francisco Chronicle, Le Monde Diplomatique, and others. He has appeared on Al-Jazeera TV, BBC radio, National Public Radio, and many other TV and radio programs throughout North America, and in France, Egypt, Singapore, and Australia, and has given frequent interviews to the global media. In 2002 he served as President of the Middle East Studies Association of North America.

This event is co-sponsored by the Arab Studies Institute.



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Goldman Conference Room
4th Floor East Wing E409
Encina Hall
616 Serra Street
Stanford, California 94305

Joel Beinin Donald J. McLachlan Professor of History Stanford University
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Professor Dincecco will present research which shows that the long-run consequences of historical warfare are different for Sub-Saharan Africa than for the rest of the Old World. Identifying the locations of over 1,750 conflicts in Africa, Asia, and Europe from 1400 to 1799, they find that historical warfare predicts greater state capacity today across the Old World, including in Sub-Saharan Africa. There is no significant correlation between historical warfare and current civil conflicts across the rest of the Old World. However, this correlation is strong and positive in Sub-Saharan Africa. Thus, while a history of conflict predicts higher per capita GDP for the rest of the Old World, this positive consequence is overturned for Sub-Saharan Africa.

This talk is part of the Comparative Politics Workshop in the Department of Political Science and is co-sponsored by The Europe Center.

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Mark Dincecco, assistant professor in the Department of Political Science and a faculty affiliate of the Program in International and Comparative Studies at the University of Michigan.

Mark Dincecco is an assistant professor in the Department of Political Science and a faculty affiliate of the Program in International and Comparative Studies. His research and teaching interests include political economy, economic and political history, comparative politics, and public finance. His book, Political Transformations and Public Finances: Europe, 1650-1913, was published by Cambridge University Press. His current research tests the long-run relationships between military conflicts, state formation and capacity, and economic and political development.

Graham Stuart Lounge
Encina Hall West, Room 400

 

Mark Dincecco Assistant professor of political science Speaker University of Michigan
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Koret Distinguished Lecture Series: Lecture V

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During the past five decades, the South Korean economy has achieved stellar success. The country has been transformed from an impoverished, war-stricken, agrarian society into an industrial powerhouse. Today Korea has the world’s 14th-largest economy and per capita GDP of $28,000. Yet the economy is now at a crossroads. Korea is losing its dynamism and facing serious challenges, including a rapidly aging society, declining working age population, reduced potential growth rate, increasing demand for welfare expenditures, worsening inequality, and fewer decent jobs. Moreover, the prospect of unification poses not only opportunities but also challenges. Kyung Wook Hur will discuss Korea’s urgent need to find new engines of growth and take other steps to meet these challenges to the future of the Korean economy.

From May 2010 to May 2013, Kyung Wook Hur was Ambassador of the Permanent Delegation of Korea to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), where he also served as chair of the OECD Pension Budget and Reserve Fund Management Board, co-chair of the Working Group on OECD Development Strategy, and chair of the Informal Reflection Group on China. He was Korea’s Vice Minister of Strategy and Finance from January 2009 to May 2010 and Secretary to the President for National Agenda from March 2008 to January 2009. During a career in the Korean government that began in 1979, he focused on macroeconomic policies, international financial policy, economic policy coordination, and budget planning. Outside of the Korean government, he also worked for various international financial organizations, including the World Bank (as a Young Professional), the International Finance Corporation, and the International Monetary Fund.

Currently Ambassador Hur is a visiting professor at both the Korea Development Institute’s School of Public Policy and Management and Seoul National University’s Graduate School of International Studies, and an advisor to the ASEAN +3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO). He is also a Chartered Financial Analyst. He received a BA in business administration from Seoul National University and an MBA from Stanford University. 

 

The Koret Distinguished Lecture Series is made possible through the generous support of the Koret Foundation.

 

   

Philippines Conference RoomEncina Hall, 3rd floor616 Serra StreetStanford University
Kyung Wook Hur, <i>former ROK Ambassador to OECD </i> Former ROK Ambassador to OECD
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Stanford-Sasakawa Peace Foundation New Channels Dialogue 2015

"Innovation: Silicon Valley and Japan"

January 22, 2015

Bechtel Conference Center, Encina Hall, Stanford University

Sponsored and organized by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation (SPF) and the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) in Association with U.S.-Japan Council 
 

The Japan Program at Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University is continuing the "New Channels" dialogue which started in 2013 with support from the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. The project was launched to create new channels of dialogue between experts and leaders of younger generations from the United States, mostly from the West Coast, and Japan under name of "New Channels: Reinvigorating U.S.-Japan Relations," with the goal of reinvigorating the bilateral relationship through dialogue on 21st century challenges faced by both nations. 

Last year, in its inaugural year, the Stanford-SPF New Channels Dialogue 2014 focused on energy issues. This year's theme is innovation and entrepreneurship, which will take place on January 22 at Stanford University with participants that include business leaders, academia and experts from both the United States and Japan. On January 23, a closed dialogue among participants will be held at Stanford.

Shorenstein APARC will be tweeting about the conference at hashtag, #StanfordSPF. Join the conversation with the handle, @StanfordSAPARC.

 

Brief Agenda

9:15-9:30 
Welcome: 
Gi-Wook Shin, Director, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University 
Yuji Takagi, President, Sasakawa Peace Foundation 
 

9:30-10:50 
Panel Discussion I: Current State of Silicon Valley Innovations

Chair: Kazuyuki Motohashi, Sasakawa Peace Fellow, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

Panelists: 
Richard Dasher, Director, US-Asia Technology Management Center, Stanford University 
Tak Miyata, General Partner, Scrum Ventures 
Patrick Scaglia, Consultant and Technology Advisor, Startup Ventures and former senior executive, Hewlette Packard 
Norman Winarsky, Vice President, SRI Ventures, SRI International 


11:10-12:30 
Panel Discussion II: Current State of Innovations in Japan

Chair: Kenji Kushida, Research Associate, Japan Program, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University 

Panelists: 
Yusuke Asakura, Former CEO, mixi 
Takuma Iwasa, CEO, Cerevo 
Yasuo Tanabe, Vice President and Executive Officer, Hitachi Ltd. 
Hiroaki Yasutake, Managing Executive Office and Director, Rakuten

 

12:30-13:30 
Lunch

 

13:30-14:50 
Panel Discussion III: Taking Silicon Valley Innovations to Japan

Chair: Richard Dasher, Director, US-Asia Technology Management Center, Stanford University 

Panelists: 
Jeff Char, President, J-Seed Ventures, Inc. and Chief Mentor, Venture Generation 
Akiko Futamura, President and CEO, InfiniteBio 
Allen Miner, Founder, Chairman & CEO, SunBridge Corporation 
John Roos, former U.S. Ambassador to Japan 
 

15:10-16:30 
Panel Discussion IV: The Japanese Innovation Ecosystem and Silicon Valley: Bringing them Together (How Japanese firms can make use of SV?)

Chair: Takeo Hoshi, Director, Japan Program, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

Panelists: 
Robert Eberhart, Assistant Professor, Santa Clara University and STVP Fellow, Stanford University 
Gen Isayama, CEO and Co-Founder, WiL (World Innovation Lab) 
Naoyuki Miyabe, Principal, Miyabe & Associates, LLC 
Hideichi Okada, Senior Executive Vice President, NEC Corporation 
 

Innovation: Silicon Valley and Japan
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Bechtel Conference Center
Encina Hall
616 Serra St., 1st floor
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305

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Though some signs point to Japan falling into recession, Stanford economist Takeo Hoshi disagrees and says it is premature to judge the effectiveness of Japan's new approach to its economy. Not enough time has passed for the reforms to produce results.

Despite a recent slowdown, time will tell if Japan has charted the right economic course after more than 15 years of deflation, says a Stanford economist.

The Stanford News Service recently interviewed economics professor Takeo Hoshi of Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center about Japan's economy – the third largest in the world.

In the last two years, Japan undertook a new economic direction in adopting fiscal reforms known as "Abenomics," which refers to its principal advocate, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe. Abenomics consists of monetary policy, fiscal policy and economic growth strategies to encourage private investment. But new data suggest that Japan may have fallen into a recession, which adds to worries about the slowing global economy.

Is Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s "Abenomics" working?

It is too early to tell. Abenomics is not failing – yet. It has three pillars or "arrows," as they are often called. The first arrow – monetary expansion – has succeeded. Japan is out of deflation, which had lasted more than 15 years. The inflation rate has not reached the target rate of 2 percent and is recently falling a little bit, but it is away from zero. The postponement of the consumption tax increase that was announced last week was a step back on the efforts to reduce the budget deficits, which is considered to be a part of the second arrow (flexible fiscal policy). However, some people in the government have started to argue that fiscal consolidation has never been a part of the second arrow. 

According to Abe, the government will implement a consumption tax rate hike in April 2017 – it will rise from 8 percent to 10 percent. This time, the law will not include an escape clause, which made the earlier one contingent on economic conditions. It was also announced that the government will develop a real plan to achieve a fiscal surplus by a certain date. These efforts may lead to a credible plan to reach fiscal sustainability. So, it is too early to say if this second arrow of Abenomics has failed.

The third arrow is the growth strategy. The original strategy announced in June 2013 lacked focus, but the revised version enacted in June 2014 offers 10 focus areas, some of which are quite sensible. The government has just begun on some of these economic reforms. It is way too early to tell if these efforts to restore growth in Japan will prove fruitful.

Will the Japanese recession have painful implications for the United States?

I would not say Japan is in recession now. Many people say that Japan is in recession because the first preliminary estimate of the third quarter real GDP growth came out negative. With the negative growth in the second quarter, Japan's economic condition satisfies a standard definition of recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth). But the negative growth in the second quarter was inevitable because the demand was shifted from the second quarter to the first quarter in anticipation of the consumption tax hike on April 1. People shifted the timing of durable consumption goods purchase from the second quarter to the first quarter. So, the "true" negative growth has been observed only for a quarter. 

Even the negative growth in the third quarter may not really signal a serious trouble. First, the negative growth disappears if we exclude the change in inventory. In other words, the production was down from the second quarter but the demand – or sales – did not fall. Also, many people expect the second preliminary estimate for third quarter growth that will be published on Dec. 8 will be revised higher. 

Will this hurt the global economy?

If Japan was in recession, that would hurt the rest of the world, especially when the economies in Europe are weak and China is slowing down. But I don't think Japan is in recession – yet.

What would have been a better strategy than "Abenomics?"

Abenomics has been better than any other alternatives that have been tried in Japan. The Bank of Japan finally stopped its deflationary policy. Abenomics also showed some early promise in economic reforms, which were tried before only in piecemeal ways.

Assuming the Liberal Democratic Party retains power and Prime Minister Abe returns as the prime minister after the next election – which seems to be a safe assumption – the government will continue Abenomics with a renewed commitment to fiscal reform and growth, I hope.

What is the lesson for countries around the world?

Many people have prematurely declared the "failure" of Abenomics. I don't think their assessment is correct, but the government could have done better by implementing some easier economic reforms in the beginning – and calling attention to its early successes. This could have included, for example, reducing the barriers to start new businesses.

Clifton Parker is a writer for the Stanford News Service.

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The city of Cupertino, California, is only about 15km from Stanford University, where I teach and live. It is home to the headquarters of Apple, a global leader in the computer and smartphone industries. It is also home to many Indian and Chinese engineers who are essential to Silicon Valley's technological innovation. One can easily find a variety of Asian restaurants and shops along the palm tree-lined streets -- an interesting Californian scene with a distinctly Asian flavor.

Many Asians -- businesspeople, officials and experts -- visit Silicon Valley hoping to unlock its secrets, to learn why it is such a hotbed of innovation. One known "secret" here, often overlooked by Asian visitors, is the importance of cultural diversity. More than half of the area's startups, including Intel, Yahoo, eBay and Google, were established by immigrants, and these companies owe much of their success to the contributions of Chinese and Indian engineers. Cultural diversity can be found throughout the schools, stores and streets, as well as the enterprises, there.

In Israel, too

The circumstances are quite similar in Israel, another economy known for technological innovation. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, Israel admitted about 850,000 immigrants. More than 40 percent of the new arrivals were college professors, scientists and engineers, many of whom had abundant experience in research and development. These people played a critical role in promoting economic development and scientific and technological innovation in Israel. Many languages besides Hebrew can be heard on the streets of Tel Aviv, one of the country's largest cities.

It is no accident that Silicon Valley and Israel have become global high-tech centers. They opened their doors to a wide range of talented immigrants. Above all, an atypical sociocultural ecosystem -- a culture that respects and promotes the value of diversity -- is alive in both places.

In the United States, diversity is a key criterion in college admissions and faculty recruitment. Although "affirmative action" has disappeared in many parts of the country, diversity has come to play a key role in American university policies. Most American colleges, including Stanford, have a "diversity office" to promote diversity among students, faculty and staff. At Stanford, white students constitute less than 40 percent of the student body, and almost a quarter of the faculty come from minority groups. Similarly, only five of the 16 staff members at our Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center are Caucasian, with the rest from ethnic and national minorities.

 The same can be said of leading American corporations, many of which have institutionalized "diversity management" to capitalize on the range of individual differences and talents to increase organizational effectiveness. Of course, basic knowledge and skills are prerequisites. But Americans seem to firmly believe that having a variety of backgrounds and experiences can help hatch new ideas and innovative technologies. Perhaps this is why they say that culture accounts for 90 percent of the innovation in products from Silicon Valley, with technology claiming only 10 percent.

The power of diversity

Scott E. Page, professor of complex systems, political science and economics at the University of Michigan, shows in his book "The Difference" how "the power of diversity creates better groups, firms, schools, and societies." In his view, collections of people with diverse perspectives and heuristics outperform collections of people who rely on homogeneous ones, and the key to optimizing efficiency in a group is diversity. In this work, Page pays particular attention to the importance of "identity diversity," that is, differences in race, ethnicity, gender, social status and the like.

To be sure, Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea are different from settler societies such as the U.S. With the influx of foreigners, however, even such ethnically homogeneous Asian societies are becoming multiethnic. In addition to unskilled labor and foreign brides, the number of overseas students and professors is rising at Japanese and South Korean universities, while Japanese and South Korean companies are actively hiring foreign professionals. Both countries are opening their doors to foreigners, though in limited numbers, and have made multiculturalism a key policy objective.

Still, they fall far short of recognizing the value of diversity. While Japanese and South Korean institutes of higher learning have been trying to attract more foreign students, they have been doing so mainly to make up for the declining student population at home and because university ranking agencies use the ratio of foreign students and professors as a key yardstick for measuring internationalization. The approaches of these two countries to multiculturalism are also largely focused on assimilating foreigners into their own cultures and systems. People from abroad are seldom accepted as "permanent" members of their societies or regarded as valuable assets. Japan and South Korea may have become multiethnic, but they are not multicultural.

One of the biggest challenges facing foreign residents in Japan and South Korea is the lack of understanding of their religious and cultural beliefs. Indian engineers working in South Korea complain of the poor acceptance of Indians by the local population, and of an especially poor understanding of their religion and culture. Foreign professors teaching at Japanese universities tell me they live as "foreigners," never accepted into the "inner" circles. It is unlikely that these talented people would like to work long term for universities and enterprises that are unable to embrace differences in skin color and culture. Under these circumstances, even if some foreign professionals happen to be hired, they may not be able to realize the full potential of their abilities, let alone bring about innovation.

All these people with different ethnic and national backgrounds should no longer be regarded simply as "temporary" residents to fill particular needs. Rather, by promoting the cultural diversity of Japanese and South Korean society, they should be viewed as important assets and potential sources of innovation. It is an urgent but difficult task to institutionalize the value of diversity in societies long accustomed to the notion of a single-race nation.

Born on campuses

A country's global competitiveness can hardly be improved if its society is reluctant to respect differences and understand other groups. Universities, in particular, should help their students experience diversity through the regular curriculum and extracurricular activities. Foreign students can serve as excellent resources for promoting diversity. Universities are ideal settings for various groups of students to meet, generate new ideas and interact with one another. It is no accident that many of the innovative ideas associated with Microsoft, Yahoo, Google and Facebook were all born on American university campuses, where diversity is embraced.

Empirical research should be carried out to examine how cultural diversity can bring about technological innovation in Japanese and South Korean society. Based on such studies, governments and private enterprises should take into account diversity in personnel hiring, training, management and evaluation. These same institutions should also systematically work to create and support an organizational culture that values diversity.

Could those Indian and Chinese engineers working in Silicon Valley have brought about the same kind of technological innovation if they had remained in their own countries? Could they accomplish the same feat in Japan and South Korea? How can Asian countries create the kind of ecosystem necessary for promoting a flexible culture of accommodating a broad spectrum of talents? We first need to reflect deeply on these questions before trying to emulate the success of Silicon Valley.

 

Shin recently coauthored the paper, "Embracing Diversity in Higher Education: Comparing Discourses in the U.S., Europe, and Asia" with Yonsei University Professor Rennie J. Moon. It is one outcome of their research project, Diversity and Tolerance in Korea and Asia. This Nikkei Asian Review article was originally carried on Nov. 20 and reposted with permission.

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From October 19th to 22nd, REAP's partner at Shaanxi Normal University, the Center for Experimental Economics in Education (CEEE), held a conference gathering representatives from 10 universities across China and more than 20 foundations, NGOs, and government education departments to exchange experiences regarding education development programs and impact evaluation in China.  Founded in January of 2014, CEEE aims to raise the quality and effectiveness of education policy and projects throughout China not only by conducting action research, but also by leading training sessions to help other academic research teams, government officials, and NGO and foundation members understand the importance of evidence-based action and the core principles and basic methodology of impact evaluation.

During the conference, CEEE led the participants through a comprehensive training in impact evaluation and provided a forum for participants to share their own diverse experiences in the field of education development.  Participants also visited a field site for one of REAP's Computer Assisted Learning projects in order to understand how impact evaluation is conducted in the field.  Recalling the four day conference, one participant said, "Before, we all went out to look for the disease believing we already had the prescription in hand. Now we finally understand how to analyze the causal chain underlying a problem in order to find a real solution."

The first in a series of workshops, this conference marks a step forward in REAP's overarching goal to promote evidence-based action in China and bring about effective and cost-efficient education policies and programs for the benefit of rural China's children.

Read more (in Chinese) here.

 

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Encina Hall
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Stanford, CA  94305

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Post-doctoral Fellow at The Europe Center, 2014-2015
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Duncan Lawrence holds a PhD in Political Science from the University of Colorado Boulder. His research focuses on immigration, comparative political behavior, political economy and Latin America. His early interest in immigration and immigrant integration developed out of his work as a medical interpreter for a non-profit serving Spanish speaking immigrants in Wyoming. He is a two-time Fulbright recipient, first serving as a Fulbright English Teaching Assistant in Argentina in 2005 and then more recently as a Fulbright Scholar in Chile investigating how connections to emigrants impact perceptions of immigration. Duncan is the co-founder of the Telluride Research Group, LLC, an innovative data analysis and research firm that assists businesses and organizations in using social science research methods to understand problems and policy, and make better decisions. His research has appeared in journals such as Electoral Studies, The Latin Americanist and Latin American Research Review.
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Abstract:

The levels of violence in Mexico have dramatically increased in the last few years due to structural changes in the drug trafficking business. The increase in the number of drug trafficking organizations (DTOs) fighting over the control of territory and trafficking routes has resulted in a substantial increase in the rates of homicides and other crimes. This study evaluates the economic costs of drug-related violence. We propose electricity consumption as an indicator of the level of municipal economic activity and use two different empirical strategies to test this. We utilize an instrumental variable regression using as exogenous variation the instrument proposed by Castillo, Mejía, and Restrepo (2013) based on historical seizures of cocaine in Colombia interacted with the distance of the Mexican border towns to the United States. We find that marginal increases of violence have negative effects on labor participation and the proportion of unemployed in an area. The marginal effect of the increase in homicides is substantive for earned income and the proportion of business owners, but not for energy consumption. We also employ the methodology of synthetic controls to evaluate the effect that inter-narco wars have on local economies. These wars in general begin with a wave of executions between rival criminal organizations and are accompanied by the deterioration of order and a significant increase in extortion, kidnappings, robberies, murders, and threats affecting the general population. To evaluate the effect that these wars between different drug trafficking organizations have on economic performance, we define the beginning of a conflict as the moment when we observe an increase from historical violence rates at the municipal level beyond a certain threshold, and construct counterfactual scenarios as an optimal weighted average from potential control units. The analysis indicates that the drug wars in those municipalities that saw dramatic increases in violence between 2006 and 2010 significantly reduced their energy consumption in the years after the change occurred.

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Beatriz Magaloni
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Christina Schneider, Associate Professor of Political Science, UC San Diego.

Christina Schneider (Ph.D. University of Konstanz) is an associate professor of political science and Jean Monnet Chair at the University of California, San Diego. Her research focuses on international cooperation and bargaining in international organizations with a focus on distributional bargaining in the European Union and multilateral aid organizations. She has published a book on distributional conflict in the European Union with Cambridge University Press and research articles in journals such as the British Journal of Political Science, International OrganizationInternational Studies Quarterly, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Journal of European Public Policy, and Public Choice.

 

Christina Schneider Associate Professor of Political Science and Jean Monnet Chair Speaker University of California, San Diego
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