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Takeo Hoshi
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Policies seeking to end deflation, the most pressing issue for the Japanese economy, have been put into effect. In this issue of the NIRA Policy Review, Takeo Hoshi points out that deflation is a monetary phenomenon, and as such is a problem which can be solved by monetary policy.

Policies seeking to end deflation, the most pressing issue for the Japanese economy, have been put into effect.  In this issue of the NIRA Policy Review, Takeo Hoshi points out that deflation is a monetary phenomenon, and as such is a problem which can be solved by monetary policy.

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The structure of the Chinese economy changed dramatically between 2005 and 2009.  It changed from an export-investment leading economy to a domestic-demand leading economy.  Before 2004 China was a huge factory because of its cheap and abundant labor.  After 2010 it has become a huge market because of the rapid increase of their income level.

Not only the rapid growth of China’s GDP, but the rapid increase of the number of middle-class-income people in China whose GDP per capita surpass 10 thousand USD gave Japanese companies many business chances since 2010. Even under the worst political condition between Japan and China after Senkaku territorial dispute most of Japanese companies keep increasing their investment in China because Chinese local governments are so eager to invite the investment of Japanese companies. If Japan and China can realize the normalization of Sino-Japan relations, their win-win relationship should be accelerated.

The Xi Jinping’s administration started officially in March. Chinese ordinary people’s complaint against the Chinese government seems very strong mainly because the former administration put off the resolution of many important problems including the corruption of governmental officials, environmental deterioration, economic inequality. Xi Jinping’s administration should work on these difficult problems. In such a situation it is important for China to normalize Sino-Japan relations to enhance the economic stability.

 

Kiyoyuki Seguchi is the Research Director of the Canon Institute for the Global Studies. His research focuses on the Chinese economy and relations between the United States, China and Japan. He worked for the Bank of Japan from 1982 to 2009. He was the Chief Representative of the Representative Office of BOJ in Beijing from 2006 to 2008, the international visiting fellow at RAND Corporation (Los Angeles, CA) from 2004 to 2005. He received a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Tokyo.

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Kiyoyuki Seguchi Research Director Speaker Canon Institute for the Global Studies
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With a new government now in place, what are the prospects for financial reform in China, will interest rates become market-based, will the Renminbi become convertible, will banks begin to price capital economically? The talk explores these themes and discusses some of the obstacles to change that the new government faces.
 
At its core China's financial system is all about its banks. They are the provider of capital to all sectors of the Chinese economy, whether by outright loans or acting as both underwriter and principal investor in the country's growing bond markets. They operate now, as they have always operated, within the narrow framework of interest and currency rates set not by markets but by administrative fiat. For most of their history they have acted as simple conduits of capital based on an economic blueprint contained in a central plan. Some 15 years ago the entities then called specialized banks began to be restructured into what were meant to be commercial banks modeled after international, and particularly, US best practice. The outbreak of the global financial crisis not only called into question this ongoing effort, the massive economic stimulus had the effect of washing away the past decade long effort to transform what had been policy banks into more economically-oriented commercial banks. 
 
Please click here to download the talk slides. 
 
ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Dr. Carl Walter has contributed articles to publications including Caijing, the Wall Street Journal and the China Quarterly. He is also the co-author of Red Capitalism: The Fragile Financial Foundations of China's Extraordinary Rise (2012) and Privatizing China: Inside China's Stock Markets (2005).

Dr. Walter lived and worked in Beijing from 1991 to 2011, first as an investment banker involved in the earliest SOE restructurings and overseas public listings, then as chief operation officer of China's first joint venture investment bank, China International Capital Corporation. For ten years he was JPMorgan's China chief operating officer as well as chief executive officer of its China banking subsidiary.

Dr. Walter holds a PhD in political science from Stanford University, a certificate of advanced study from Peking University and a BA in Russian Studies from Princeton University.

 

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Speaker:    Dr. Carl E. Walter, Author of “Red Capitalism”

Moderator:  Michael Harris, President of Finance, Ambow Education

Until China began its highly successful reform effort in 1978, banks as institutions hardly existed, they were mostly a channel to provide funding to state enterprises. Yet after the economic reform in the 1980s, there was a rush of banking privatization and this enthusiasm to drive economic growth led to excessive bank lending and high rates of inflation in the 1990s. Following the Asian Financial Crisis and the collapse of Guangdong International Trust and Investment Co., a single party committee for each of the big state banks was created. The objective was to build relatively independent banking institutions with centralized management structures, thus forming special bond between the Party and Banks in China. Dr. Walter will discuss the modern evolution of China’s banks and the challenges in transiting to a more open, consumption-based model of economic development.

Carl E. Walter has worked in China′s financial sector for the past 20 years, participating in many of the country's financial reforms. He played a major role in China′s groundbreaking first overseas IPO in 1992 as well as the first listing of a state–owned enterprise on the New York Stock Exchange in 1994. He held a senior position in China′s first joint venture investment bank where he supported a number of significant domestic stock and debt underwritings for major Chinese corporations and financial institutions. More recently, he helped build one of the most successful and profitable domestic security, risk and currency trading operations for a major international investment bank. He holds a PhD from Stanford University and a graduate certificate from Beijing University.

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Carl E. Walter Author of "Red Capitalism" Speaker
Michael Harris President of Finance Moderator Ambow Education
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Abstract:

The discovery of oil or gas in a poor country is potentially beneficial and, simultaneously, potentially calamitous. While countries could put oil revenues toward building much-needed schools and roads, fixing and staffing health systems, and policing the streets, many resource-rich states fare little better—and often much worse—than their re resource-poor counterparts. Too often public money is misallocated and funds meant to be saved are raided, and citizens pay the price. While there is much discussion about how to respond to windfalls, solutions to counteract potential corrosive effects are highly elusive. Todd Moss leads CGD's Oil-to-Cash initiative, which is exploring one policy option: paying revenues directly to citizens. Under this proposal, a government would transfer some or all of the revenue from natural resource extraction to citizens in universal, transparent, and regular payments. The state would treat these payments as normal income and tax it accordingly—thus forcing the state to collect taxes, and addinng additional pressure for public accountability and more responsible resource management. Todd will talk about the idea, the pitfalls, and some of the emerging models experimenting with aspects of the Oil-to-Cash model.

Todd Moss is vice president for programs and senior fellow at the Center for Global Development, a Washington-DC based thinktank. Moss previously served in the US State Department, worked at the World Bank, and was a lecturer at the London School of Economics.  He is the author of African Development: Making sense of the issues and actors (2011).

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Todd Moss Vice president for programs and senior fellow at the Center for Global Development Speaker Washington-DC based thinktank
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On June 6 and 7, the Stanford Project on Japanese Entrepreneurship (STAJE) of SPRIE at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, in cooperation with the Stanford Technology Ventures Program (STVP) of the Stanford School of Engineering, will present the 5th Annual Academic Conference on Japanese Entrepreneurship at the Huang Engineering Center at Stanford University. The theme of the conference is "Entrepreneurial Policy, Outcomes, and Strategies in Japan: Lessons for the Rest of the World". We invite papers, as in past years, from the fields of management, strategy, organizations, sociology, political science and economics to be submitted to this conference, which will be attended by scholars from Japan, the United States, and Europe.

Consul General Hiroshi Inomata will give the opening address.

The following scholars will deliver keynote speeches:

Hugh Patrick, Columbia University
Tom Byers
, Stanford University
Tina Seelig, Stanford University

The following scholars will present papers:

Christina Ahmadjian, Hitotsubashi University
Serguey Braguinsky, Carnegie-Mellon University
Steven Casper, Keck Graduate Institute, Claremont Colleges
Joseph Cheng, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Robert Cole, UC Berkeley
Charles Eesley, Stanford University
George Foster, Stanford University
Masayo Fujimoto, Doshisha University
Kathryn Ibata-Ahrens, DePaul University
Martin Kenney, UC Davis
Robert Kneller, Tokyo University
Masahiro Kotosaka, Oxford University
Kazuyuki Motohashi, Tokyo University
Renee Rottner, New York University
Ulrike Schaede, UC San Diego
Kay Shimizu, Columbia University
Janet Smith, Claremont-McKenna University
Richard Smith, UC Riverside

The following are confirmed discussants:

Charla Griffy-Brown, Pepperdine University
Richard Dasher
, Stanford University
Robert Eberhart
, Stanford University
Kathleen Eisenhart, Stanford University
Nobuhiko Hibara, WASEDA Business School
Glenn Hoetker, University of Arizona
Takeo Hoshi, Stanford University
Riitta Katila, Stanford University
Christine Isakson, Stanford University
Joachim Lyon, Stanford University
Tammy Madsen, Santa Clara University
William F. Miller, Stanford University
Tom Roehl, Washington University
Steve Vogel, UC Berkeley
Dan Wang, Stanford University
Jennifer Wooley, Santa Clara University

The following practitioner and financial supporter will give short talks:

Mike Alfant, CEO Fusion Systems, President ACCJ

STAJE applies the principles of entrepreneurship to the academic domain by creating opportunities for innovative, creative and multidisciplinary approaches to research on contemporary Japan. During this conference we will present high quality contributions on issues related to entrepreneurship, institutions, and Japan such as empirical studies, case studies, political and social institutional studies in Japan, and new research methodology including experimental design.

More information on last year's conference can be found at:
http://sprie.gsb.stanford.edu/news/sprie_hosts_4th_annual_stanford
_project_on_japanese_entrepreneurship_conference_20120521/

For additional information or to request an invitation, please write to Robert Eberhart at eberhart@stanford.edu.

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All the theories that explain post-Mao China’s economic success tend to attribute it to one or several “successful” policies or institutions of the Chinese government, or to account for the success from economic perspectives. This article argues that the success of the Chinese economy relies not just on the Chinese state’s economic policy but also on its social policies. Moreover, China’s economic success does not merely lie in the effectiveness of any single economic or social policy or institution, but also in the state’s capacity to make a policy shift when it faces the negative unintended consequences of its earlier policies. The Chinese state is compelled to make policy shifts quickly because performance constitutes the primary base of its legitimacy, and the Chinese state is able to make policy shifts because it enjoys a high level of autonomy inherited from China’s past. China’s economic development follows no fixed policies and relies on no stable institutions, and there is no Chinese model or “Beijing consensus” that can be constructed to explain its success.

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Visiting Scholar

Jessie Jin-Jen Leu a government official from the Republic of China (Taiwan), was a visiting scholar at the Stanford Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) in 2012-13. 

Ms. Leu is a senior economic officer who worked in various positions at the Ministry of Economic Affairs of R.O.C. She is experienced on the import management and multilateral trade related to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Currently she is working as an associate researcher to the National Security Advisor for economic affairs.

Ms. Leu graduated from Taiwan’s Tam-Kang University with a Bachelor's degree of International Trade in 1989. She continued her Master’s degree at University of Wyoming, United States in 1995. Ms. Leu also participated in the WTO negotiation and leadership Program at the Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government in 2003.

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