The Fentanyl Blame Game: How Mexico, the United States, and China Avoid Coordinated Efforts

In 2022, 68% out of 107,081 drug overdose deaths in the United States (U.S.) involved synthetic opioids. That is more than 150 overdose-related deaths every single day. Among the wide range of synthetic opioids, Fentanyl stands out above the rest. Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid 100 times stronger than morphine and 50 times stronger than heroin. It is used medically as a painkiller and an anesthetic, but it is also illegally manufactured and trafficked by criminal groups. Illegally manufactured Fentanyl has flooded the streets of major cities in the United States (U.S.) and caused hundreds of thousands of deaths. 

The fentanyl issue is also a complex global issue. In a nutshell, the opioid crisis involves three key players: Mexico, the U.S., and the People’s Republic of China. Prior to its manufacturing, Fentanyl requires precursor chemicals. China’s large-scale manufacturing capacities make it the perfect ground for precursor chemicals for Fentanyl. Once precursors leave China, they head to the Americas and, specifically, Mexico, where drug cartels have developed a massive-scale manufacturing scheme. The end products then reach U.S. cities where synthetic opioids have decimated thousands of people. 

In addition to causing thousands of deaths, the opioid epidemic has also set its three main actors on a diplomatic collision course. Mexico, the U.S., and China have been unable to adopt coordinated and intelligence-sharing efforts to address the crisis, instead blaming each other for the origin of the Fentanyl emergency. Because of this, the article aims to analyze the Fentanyl crisis from an international perspective and provide insights into the key issues and challenges governments and individuals face.

Fentanyl International Inc.

In the early 2000s, cartels and other criminal groups took to the streets the first synthetic opioids. Soon enough, criminals and synthetic narcotics became a dangerous mix: they had killer profits and deadly side effects. Cartels soon realized synthetic substances were cheaper and had better margins than the competition’s finest products; they required smaller dosages and were more accessible to traffic. Cartels began to acquire chemical precursors from Asian and Middle Eastern countries and import them directly into Mexico. Since they were artificial products, they did not require great land extensions for their production.

Fast forward two decades later, Fentanyl and its analogs are the go-to opioids in the cartel industry. According to the DEA, Fentanyl accounts for most of the illegal opioids seized in the U.S. This killer substance has created a cross-border maze for law enforcement and intelligence authorities to decipher. Apart from the regulatory nightmare, criminal organizations have scaled up and centralized the production of Fentanyl and its precursor chemicals.

One of the main complexities in the crisis lies in the Fentanyl supply chain itself. The chain is a transnational network that employs hundreds of thousands of people and brings billions of dollars in profit annually. The production of synthetic opioids differs significantly from that of natural opioids despite both cycles having a transnational nature. Since Fentanyl does not require natural resources, it has allowed crime rings to camouflage production facilities throughout the most remote and isolated areas of mainland China. In addition, while most modern anti-drug detection technologies are relatively effective in tracking other raw materials like marijuana leaves and poppy seeds, criminals will often mislabel precursors and profit “from the abstract nature of chemical nomenclature and classification systems to avoid detection of scheduled substances.”

Currently, Drugs Inc. has its primary sources of Fentanyl and precursor chemicals from China and India. At the same time, the main transit and production hub is Mexico, where drug cartels have established a network of clandestine laboratories along the countryside. Recently declassified intelligence reports revealed that cartels are only likely to scale up their Fentanyl production and distribution efforts in the following years.

At a glance, China is the world’s largest producer and exporter of chemical precursors. These chemicals are often sold online through e-commerce platforms or dark web marketplaces and shipped to Mexico or the U.S. through standard courier services like FedEx and USPS. Precursor shipments avoid border controls smuggled as everyday products, such as dog food or motor oil, and marked with false or misleading labels or information to evade detection and regulation.

Moreover, Mexico is the main transit and production hub for Fentanyl destined for the U.S. market. Mexican crime syndicates, such as the Sinaloa and Jalisco Nueva Generación cartels, have seized the opportunity to profit from the high demand and low cost of Fentanyl. Once the precursor chemicals make their way into Mexican soil, cartels brew them through a production line smooth like clockwork. Cartels have also diversified their product portfolio by mixing Fentanyl with low-quality heroin or cocaine or by pressing it into colorful pills that mimic prescription opioids, such as oxycodone or hydrocodone—altered Fentanyl skyrockets cartel’s profits while at the same time widely increasing overdoses and deaths.

Ultimately, the U.S. is the leading destination and consumer market for illegal Fentanyl and its analogs. Synthetic opioids enter the U.S. mainly through the southwestern border. Cartels traffic these drugs upstream using various methods such as tunnels, trucks, airplanes, backpacks, and even narco-submarines. Cartels then disperse Fentanyl across the U.S. through a web of distributors. Fentanyl is widely available from street dealers and online sites. In many cases, consumers are unaware of the presence of Fentanyl while consuming other drugs. According to the DEA, 1 in 6 fake prescription pills now contain a potentially lethal dose of Fentanyl, which unknowingly places consumers in harm’s way.

The international stage is just as complex as the industrial conglomerate behind Fentanyl. An essential part of the issue is that the governments have been unable to dimension the extent of the Fentanyl supply chain since over 90% of illegal Fentanyl seizures take place in legal points of entry. Mexico, the U.S., and China have either been unable or unwilling to acknowledge the issue’s magnitude and have yet to adopt coordinated efforts to address the problem. At best, these three governments have locally taken some solutions while at the same time managing to alienate each other.

The Blame Game

It is no secret that the Chinese mainland has one of the harshest anti-drug laws and policies in the world. Beijing claims that “anyone involved in drug-related crimes, regardless of the quantity involved, will be convicted and punished.” However, critics have pointed out that, internationally, Chinese law enforcement has looked the other way in monitoring or regulating purchases of precursor chemicals to manufacture Fentanyl. International buyers purchase chemicals used to synthesize Fentanyl through online sites and often employ codenames to cover their tracks.

Before 2019, Chinese sellers were able to legally export Fentanyl and its precursors in what became a global drugs bazaar. After U.S. and U.N. pressure, the Chinese government began an extensive crackdown on the production and sale of precursor chemicals used to produce illegal Fentanyl. However, U.S.-China cooperation has stalled amid rising tensions regarding trade, intellectual property theft, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Taiwan. China has also denied that it is the primary source of Fentanyl precursors and has blamed the U.S. for its high demand and consumption of opioids.

After mounting international pressure, Mexican president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) wrote to Chinese President Xi Jinping, asking him to take action to restrict the production of synthetic drugs on a humanitarian basis. In April 2023, the Chinese government responded to AMLO’s letter dismissing its claims. Beijing’s Foreign Ministry argued that there is no such thing as illegal Fentanyl trafficking between China and Mexico and that it is not responsible for the opioid crisis in any way. China also claimed that the issue of Fentanyl abuse in the U.S. is an American-made matter and the sole responsibility of the U.S. government. Beijing claims that the crisis is “completely Made in the USA.”

The Fentanyl crisis has also become a hot topic in relations between the U.S. and Mexico. GOP lawmakers have leveraged the Fentanyl crisis as a political tool and slammed the Mexican government for allegedly not doing enough to stop the flow of Fentanyl into the States. Republicans have also called for increased border security and for Mexico to be held accountable for the deaths of U.S. citizens caused by Fentanyl overdoses. Some legislators have even called for the U.S. to conduct military operations in Mexican territory.

On September 29, 2023, the U.S. Congress announced that it would be cutting aid to Mexico by USD 10 million in response to Mexico’s refusal to do more to stop the flow of Fentanyl into the U.S. The U.S. accused Mexico of not doing enough to crack down on drug cartels that are producing and trafficking Fentanyl. Mexico responded to the foreign aid cuts by accusing the country of not doing enough to address the root causes of other issues, such as migration, poverty, and violence across Latin America. Mexico has also highlighted that the U.S. is not doing enough to curb the trafficking of guns into the country, with an estimated 200,000 guns crossing the border illegally every year.

In addition, over the past months, Attorney General Merrick Garland visited Mexico City. The main topic of discussion was the joint efforts to curb the production and trafficking of Fentanyl. Garland praised the Mexican government for its recent operations to dismantle cartels and for the recent extradition of high-profile figures like Ovidio Guzmán López, son of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán and one of the leaders of the Sinaloa Cartel. It is critical to note that these measures have been taken locally by the Mexican authorities amidst growing estrangement with foreign law enforcement and intelligence agencies like the DEA. The blame cycle has only worsened significantly over the last few years, just as the number of victims of the opioid crisis is on the rise.

Final Thoughts

As governments play the blame game, international criminal organizations have come out ahead. Cartels are constantly adapting and innovating their methods and products to evade detection and regulation from the authorities. Criminals often modify the chemical structures of Fentanyl and its precursors to create new analogs that are not controlled or regulated and that may have different or unknown effects and potencies, hence placing Fentanyl consumers at greater risk. Cartels have also used advanced spyware and encryption technologies to communicate, market, and sell their products, especially to conceal their identities and locations.

Considering the above, it is possible to conclude that the Fentanyl government-backed blame game is a counterproductive and harmful phenomenon that hinders law enforcement agencies’ capacities to react to the opioid crisis efficiently. By pointing the Fentanyl crisis to others, rather than acknowledging their responsibility and role in addressing the problem, China, the U.S., and Mexico create mistrust and hostility among inter-governmental agencies and undermine cooperation efforts. A coordinated international and intelligence-sharing approach is vital for stopping precursors and final products from reaching narco-labs and the streets. 

Finally, by focusing on the blame or source of the problem rather than on the solutions, the actors involved in the Fentanyl blame game divert the attention and resources from the development and implementation of evidence-based and tailored cross-border policies that can prevent, treat, and reduce the harms of Fentanyl production, distribution, and use. The blame game has also prevented the countries from addressing the underlying causes and consequences of the Fentanyl crisis, such as inequality, violence, education, and access to treatment and healthcare.

After-note: It is worth mentioning that the Fentanyl blame game was also part of the APEC Summit 2023. Leaders from Mexico, the U.S., and China acknowledged the health risks that Fentanyl poses to consumers and agreed to tackle transnational crime organizations’ capabilities. The most noteworthy action is probably Beijing’s agreement to go after certain manufacturers that, according to the U.S., produce and export precursor chemicals.    Earlier in October, the Justice Department had already indicted Chinese-based companies and individuals allegedly connected to the production of chemical precursors.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent those of any previous or current employers, the editorial body of SIPR, the Freeman Spogili Institute, or Stanford University.