Climate Change: What Next for American Foreign Policy
Council on Foreign Relations
New York
David G. Victor
School of International Relations and Pacific Studies
UC San Diego
San Diego, CA
Special Seminar on the Geopolitics of Natural Gas
World natural gas consumption is projected to more than double by 2030 -- surpassing coal as the world's #2 energy resource. Plentiful reserves exist but surplus gas supplies are far removed from future demand centers -- necessitating major investments in gas transport infrastructures. The growing importance of natural gas imports to modern economies will force new thinking about energy security.
The two-year collaborative study between Stanford PESD and the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University includes seven historical case studies of built cross-border gas trade projects and economic modeling of global natural gas markets. The project aims to assess key factors affecting decision-making in large gas infrastructure investments and to then utilize these results to inform analysis of prospective developments in the world gas trade.
The seminar serves as a prelude to the Geopolitics of Gas Conference co-hosted by the Stanford Program on Energy and Sustainable Development and the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University to be held May 26-27, 2004 in Houston, Texas.
Bishop Auditorium, Graduate School of Business
David G. Victor
School of International Relations and Pacific Studies
UC San Diego
San Diego, CA
Mark H. Hayes
Encina Hall E419-B
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Mark H. Hayes was recently a Research Fellow with the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development (PESD). He lead PESD's research on global natural gas markets, including studies of the growing trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and the future for gas demand growth in China.
Dr. Hayes has developed models to analyze the impact of growing LNG imports on U.S. and European gas markets with special attention to seasonality and the opportunity for arbitrage using LNG ships and regasification capacity. From 2002 to 2005, Dr. Hayes managed the Geopolitics of Natural Gas Project, a study of critical political and financial factors affecting investment in cross-border gas trade projects. The study culminated in an edited book volume published by Cambridge University Press.
Prior to coming to Stanford, Mark worked as a financial analyst at Morgan Stanley in New York City. He was a member of the Global Power and Utilities Group, where he was involved in mergers and acquisitions, financing and corporate restructuring.
In 2006 he completed his Ph.D. in the Interdisciplinary Program on Environment and Resources at Stanford University. After completing his Ph.D. at Stanford, Mark has taken a position at RREEF Infrastructure Investments, San Francisco, CA. Mark also has a B.A. in Geology from Colgate University and an M.A. in International Policy Studies from Stanford. From 1999 to 2002 he served on the Board of Trustees of Colgate University.
Ale Nunez
PESD
Stanford University
616 Serra Street
Encina Hall East, Rm. 420
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Ale Núñez was a Research Fellow at the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development. At PESD, her research focused on foreign investment in independent power projects in Argentina, Brazil and Mexico. Her academic interests include privatization and regulation of water and electricity infrastructure in Latin American countries, as well as economic history, sociology and legal theory.
Ale holds a Master of Laws (LL.M, 2003) from Harvard University, where she was research assistant to Duncan Kennedy, Carter Professor of General Jurisprudence. She graduated with honors from ITAM (LL.B, 2001), after having been research assistant to the Dean of the Law School, Dr. José Ramón Cossío Díaz, now an Associate Justice at the Mexican Supreme Court. She also worked in the litigation department of Morrison & Foerster LLP in Palo Alto, California, on patent infringement claims and political asylum cases, and was an active member of the firmwide Latin America Practice Group on Finance and Infrastructure.
In her spare time, Ale directs travel videos featuring Mexico, her native country. Her work is available at public libraries and retail stores throughout the US, and at www.alexandratravel.com.
Emeka Duruigbo
CESP
Stanford University
Encina Hall East, Rm. 415
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Emeka Duruigbo is Research Fellow at the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development and a SPILS Fellow at Stanford Law School where he is working on designing institutions for managing oil revenues for socio-economic development in Nigeria. He is licensed to practice law in Nigeria and California and has a broad experience that cuts across business, law and academia. At PESD, he is examining the potential for international gas trade and investment in sub-Saharan Africa, with a special focus on advanced LNG and pipeline projects.
Emeka received an LL.B. from the University of Benin and a professional certificate from the Nigerian Law School. He also holds an LL.M. from the University of Alberta and an S.J.D. from Golden Gate University.
Erik Woodhouse
Encina Hall East, E415
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Erik Woodhouse is a post-Doctoral scholar with the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development. His current research focuses on energy infrastructure investment in developing countries. Other recent research includes work in comparative corporate governance and law and international relations.
Mr. Woodhouse holds a J.D. from Stanford University and a B.A. from Emory University in International Studies and Philosophy.
Pei Yee Woo
Encina Hall East, E415
Stanford, CA 94305-6055
Pei Yee is a Research Fellow with the Program of Energy and Sustainable Development. Her current research focuses on investment issues in the global energy sector. Admitted to the bar in both Singapore and California, she was trained as an attorney in international transactions involving infrastructure privatization, investment and financing. She will be undertaking her doctoral dissertation with Stanford Law School, and she is currently a Chartered Financial Analyst candidate.
Pei Yee holds a J.S.M. from the Stanford Law School Program in International Legal Studies, and an LL.B. from the National University of Singapore.
University receives $2 million to study energy markets
The BP Foundation has awarded a three-year, $1.95 million grant to Stanford University for a broad research program on modern energy markets. The foundation is funded by BP, formerly British Petroleum, one of the world's largest energy companies. The gift will support the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development at the Stanford Institute for International Studies (SIIS). With the gift, BP joins the Electric Power Research Institute in Palo Alto, CA, as one of the program's core sponsors.
"This new partnership with BP will allow the program to accelerate research in several areas, including the design and operation of market-based policies to address the threats of global warming," said program director %people2%. "In addition to BP Foundation support, we look forward to learning more from BP's own experience as an energy company, which touches on every aspect of our program's research."
The agreement reflects a commitment by BP and Stanford to complement technical research with similar work on the legal, political and institutional dimensions of how societies derive value from energy, he added.
"Stanford University is undertaking ground-breaking research with the potential to have a profound impact on the organization of modern energy markets and the conduct of environmental policy," said Greg Coleman, BP's group vice president for environment, health, safety and security. "We hope that this is just the first step in a relationship which will become broader and deeper."
The agreement with Stanford is the latest in a series of BP partnerships with universities in the United Kingdom, the United States and China representing a total commitment of more than $100 million, according to BP officials. The Stanford agreement is expected to complement work under way at Princeton University, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Tsinghua University, company officials added.
Founded in 2001, the SIIS Program on Energy and Sustainable Development focuses on the political, legal and institutional aspects of modern energy services, in collaboration with faculty from the Stanford School of Law and several university departments, including political science and economics. About half of the program's resources are devoted to research partnerships in key developing countries, including Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa. Program researchers have examined the emergence of a global business in natural gas, reforms of electric power markets and the supply of modern energy services to low-income rural households in developing countries.
The program is housed in the Center for Environmental Science and Policy - one of five major research centers at SIIS, the university's primary forum for interdisciplinary research on international issues and challenges.
The influence of large-scale wind-power on global climate
Large scale use of wind power can alter local and global climate by extracting kinetic energy and by modifying turbulent transport in the atmospheric boundary layer. We explored the climatic impacts of extracting 3-20 TW of electricity with a suite of numerical experiments using two independent atmospheric GCMs and to parameterizations of the wind-turbine arrays. Wind power has a negligible effect on global-mean surface temperature, but at continental scales, the average magnitude of climatic change due to wind power can be significant in comparison to the reduction in climatic change achieved by the substitution of wind or fossil-fuels.
Goldman Conference Room, Forth Floor Encina Hall East
David G. Victor
School of International Relations and Pacific Studies
UC San Diego
San Diego, CA
David Victor quoted in "Forging Links to Natural Gas From Abroad" in New York Times
The United States needs natural gas. Developing countries many thousands of miles away are willing to supply it. This sleepy beachfront town and other communities along the Gulf of Mexico are likely to become the links between producers and consumers.
Altogether, energy companies are planning to spend more than $100 billion in the next decade to bring gas from developing countries to rich nations, according to PFC Energy, a Washington consulting firm. The only way to do it is to supercool the gas so that it condenses into a liquid, which is then compact enough to load onto tankers and send across oceans.
For years, this process was too costly to compete with relatively cheap domestic supplies of natural gas and with imports from Canada. But those supplies are tightening just as the demand for clean-burning gas is soaring. That has led to the most severe gas shortage in the last 25 years and caused domestic gas prices to double this year.
The gap between domestic supply and total demand is forecast to grow significantly over the next 20 years. That has made liquefied natural gas competitive, if only companies can find places that are willing to accept having L.N.G. terminals built nearby. "We've entered the gas age, and there's no turning back if we want a firm supply of a strategically crucial fuel," said Michael S. Smith, an investor who controls Freeport LNG, a Houston company that plans to build a receiving terminal on Quintana Island.
Mr. Smith and his partners, Cheniere Energy and Contango Oil and Gas, both of Houston, expect to begin construction of the terminal early next year on this tiny island about 70 miles south of Houston. The $400 million operation will be able to receive ships full of liquefied natural gas, warming the gas and piping it to a nearby plant owned by the Dow Chemical Company.
Quintana Island's attraction lies not only in its proximity to a plant that uses natural gas as a raw material but also in its location near the center of the nation's energy industry. That, it is hoped, will make political resistance to such projects tepid compared with the safety, aesthetic and environmental concerns in places like Northern California and Massachusetts.
Despite such concerns and worries that large, potentially explosive gas terminals could become terrorist targets, energy companies are eager to import liquefied natural gas. It is a shift that could avoid gas shortages forecast for the future, but could also increase the nation's dependence on foreign energy supplies.
"Just as we're debating the need to diversify our oil supplies, we're faced with an array of challenges to secure reliable and politically stable sources of gas," said David G. Victor, director of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development at Stanford University.
More than a dozen projects like the one here are seeking approval from regulators in North America, including several on the Gulf Coast and in the northern Mexican state of Baja California.
The United States is already the world's largest natural gas producer, and domestic production is expected to increase to 28.5 trillion cubic feet in 2020 from 19.1 trillion cubic feet in 2000, according to the Energy Information Administration. Still, demand is expected to far outstrip production, growing to 33.8 trillion cubic feet by 2020 from 22.8 trillion cubic feet in 2000.
The gas to close that gap - more than five trillion cubic feet, a 40 percent increase in 20 years - will have to come largely from outside the United States.
Almost all of America's imported natural gas currently comes by pipeline from Canada. But a growing market for gas within Canada and rapidly depleting Canadian wells are expected to weaken that country's ability to increase exports. Mexico, though believed to have large untapped gas reserves, is mired in nationalist debate over making it easier for foreign financiers and companies to explore for gas.
As a result, Mexico, a power in crude oil, is a growing importer of natural gas - and an attractive base for liquefied natural gas receiving terminals, which cost as much as $700 million to build. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development recently forecast that the percentage of North America's gas from imports would climb to 26 percent by 2030 from just 1 percent today.
Those imports will come mostly from developing nations like Equatorial Guinea, a former Spanish colony in West Africa where Marathon Oil of Houston plans to build an L.N.G. plant able to serve gas fields throughout the Gulf of Guinea.
Ambitious ventures are also under way in other West African countries, including Angola and Nigeria, where energy companies were recently burning gas escaping from oil drilling operations because there was no ready market for it. In the Middle East, small countries like Oman, a sultanate on the Strait of Hormuz, and Qatar, are emerging as important gas powers.
In South America, Trinidad and Tobago has become an early leader in exporting liquefied natural gas, although companies in Bolivia and Peru have had difficulties advancing efforts to export L.N.G. to California. Producers in Indonesia, Malaysia and Russia could step in to supply the West Coast, pushing the Andean countries to the margins of the business.
In some ways, the scramble for natural gas projects resembles the heady early days of the oil industry a century ago. Then, British, Dutch and American investors raced around the world to stake out interests in remote oil fields in the Middle East, Central Asia and the archipelagoes of the Java Sea.
Some regions are considered more promising than others. Industry executives point out that just three countries Iran, Qatar and Russia hold more than half of the world's natural gas reserves, inevitably focusing attention on the delicate interplay between politics and commerce in these places.
Russia, with the largest proven reserves, plans to start exporting liquefied natural gas in 2007 with deliveries to Japan. Iran, while off limits to American companies because of trade restrictions by the United States, has attracted Japanese, French, British, Indian and South Korean concerns interested in mounting gas ventures.
There are important differences, however, between past oil booms and the current interest in natural gas. For one thing, studies show the world will be swimming in natural gas supplies while oil reserves are expected to dwindle in the decades ahead. Just one area in Qatar, a monarchy near Saudi Arabia with fewer than a million people, is thought to have enough gas to supply the United States for 40 years, according to a study by Deutsche Bank.
The natural gas industry has to overcome several obstacles before evolving into a vibrant global market. Even with ample supplies there is no market for trading liquefied natural gas, as there is for crude oil. Instead, producers and customers sign long-term contracts, sometimes resulting in significant price differences from one year to the next or from one country to another.
One reason the natural gas market has remained fragmented is because the fuel is difficult and expensive to extract and transport. But these costs are declining, adding to the appeal of gas projects. Lord Browne, the chief executive of BP, said the cost of developing gas liquefaction plants had halved since the 1980's, while shipping costs had also fallen.
Shipbuilders are seeking to meet demand for tankers, with the global gas fleet expected to grow to 193 ships by 2006 from 136 in 2002, according to LNG One World, a gas- shipping information service operated by Drewry International of Britain and Nissho Iwai of Japan.
Natural gas is still not considered as crucial as oil for overall energy security since oil's main use is for transportation and there is no short-term alternative. Natural gas has a variety of important industrial uses, like serving as a raw material for fertilizer and generating electricity.
Still, the growth in demand for liquefied natural gas in the United States is expected to outstrip other parts of the world. It is likely to grow 35 percent in the next five years, compared with 20 percent in other North Atlantic countries and 12 percent worldwide, according to Deutsche Bank. Hence the rush to proceed with projects that supply liquefied natural gas to the United States.
"The world could be consuming more gas than oil by 2025," Philip Watts, the chairman of the Royal Dutch/Shell Group, the large British-Dutch energy company, said in a recent address to industry executives in Tokyo. "We must be prepared for growing geopolitical turbulence and volatility in an increasingly interdependent world."
The United States has only five terminals capable of receiving L.N.G., including one in Puerto Rico. Almost 20 are on the drawing board, but opposition to the terminals has already prevented the start of work on several of them. Earlier this year, for instance, Shell and Bechtel Enterprises shelved a plan to build a terminal about 30 miles north of San Francisco because of stiff public opposition.
California remains perhaps the most difficult place in the country to gain approval for gas-receiving terminals. This has encouraged imaginative proposals like one last month from BHP Billiton, Australia's largest energy company, for a $600 million floating terminal 20 miles off the coast of Oxnard in the southern part of the state. It remains to be seen whether any of the California projects will be built.
An air of resignation hangs over even the critics of the plan to build the terminal on Quintana, which is scheduled to start operating by 2007. Officials from Freeport LNG have told residents that they expect to make more than $1 million a year in tax payments to the city, a substantial sum for a community of 40 homes that is the smallest municipality in Texas.
At the Jetties, a restaurant on the island's edge overlooking the brown water of the Gulf of Mexico, the walls are plastered with warnings of the perceived dangers of receiving tankers full of potentially combustible gas from far-flung parts of the world. But the restaurant's employees seem to believe that the terminal will be built, inevitably changing the island's easygoing atmosphere.
"People come out here to drink beer on the beach and look at the birds and the gulf," said Dana Difatta, a cook at the restaurant. "Imagine what they'll think when they're staring at some huge vats holding natural gas. Will they be horrified or relieved?"