Japan's massive earthquake and tsunami three weeks ago and
the challenging recovery process continue to make news headlines around the
world. It is difficult to separate fact and reasonable speculation about the
future from the terror-filled coverage about radiation leaking from the
Fukushima nuclear complex. In an effort to make sense of recent events, the
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) convened
a panel of experts for a discussion about the possible future implications
arising from this complex and emotionally charged situation for Japan's energy
policy, economy, and politics.
Addressing an audience of one hundred students, faculty, and members of the
general public on March 30, Shorenstein APARC associate director for
research Daniel C. Sneider expressed the center's deep
sympathy for those affected by the natural disasters and its profound
admiration for the way in which the people of Japan are dealing with the
aftermath. Members of the panel echoed these sentiments throughout the event.
Michio Harada, Deputy Counsel General at the Consulate General of
Japan in San Francisco, cited official government figures indicating that,
as of March 28, twenty-eight thousand people were dead or missing and
one-hundred-and-eighty thousand people were still in evacuation shelters. Faced
with such staggering figures, Japan remains in a rescue and recovery phase, he
said, but is receiving a tremendous amount of global support. More than one
hundred and thirty countries have provided financial assistance, and eighteen
countries and regions have sent rescue teams. Collective public spirit is
currently very strong, Deputy Counsel Harada emphasized. Japan's challenge
moving forward, he suggested, will be to adopt pragmatic measures to fund
reconstruction projects in the areas destroyed or damaged by the natural
disasters.
Understanding the situation at the Fukushima nuclear power facility and the
information circulating about the potential health risks of radiation exposure
is complicated, stressed Siegfried S. Hecker, co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation. He
described the intricate design and structure of the reactors and outlined the
sequence of events up to the present, explaining the immediate, crucial challenge
of continuing to cool the reactors and deal with the leakage of radiation from
them. While there are definite and potentially very serious health
threats from radiation exposure and contamination, Hecker said, fear and stress
about the situation could also negatively affect mental and physical wellbeing.
It is too soon to know the long-term implications for energy policy in Japan
and other countries, he suggested, emphasizing the significance of learning
from this experience in order to improve any future use of nuclear power.
Robert Eberhart, a researcher with the Stanford Program on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship,
proposed that the global supply chain is flexible enough to absorb any
manufacturing disruptions in Japan. He noted that in the past twenty years most
of Japan's heavy manufacturing has moved overseas, and that the components made
there are a comparatively less significant part of the supply chain. In terms
of the overall impact on Japan's economy, Eberhart suggested that the net
effect on the GDP would be neutral over the next two years, explaining that the
imminent loss of business and investment in some areas would be offset by the
growth of firms involved in the reconstruction process.
Phillip Lipscy, a center fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for
International Studies and an assistant professor with the Department of
Political Science, stated that events and immediate needs during the early
stages of reconstruction may have long-term affects on policymaking and the
government structure in Japan. For example, the continued use of nuclear
energy—a relatively clean and efficient source of power accounting for 30
percent of Japan's total energy consumption—will face public opposition due to
rising concerns about safety and pressing energy needs. In addition, while
Prime Minister Naoto Kan's prompt response after the natural disasters helped
boost popular sentiment for him and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), how they
fare in the long term—especially with regard to the DPJ's relationship with the
opposition Liberal Democratic Party and reconstruction-related modifications to
its key economic policies—remains to be seen, Lipscy said.
Sneider closed the event with a comparison between the events in Japan and the April
2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill, pointing to criticism that the Obama and
Kan administrations have received for not regulating large corporations closely
enough. A prompt resolution to the dangerous—and contentious—situation at the
Fukushima nuclear complex is the most immediate concern, and one that will help
foretell the long-term political implications for Japan's government, he
concluded.
Although there is still a long road ahead in
Japan—especially until the accident at Fukushima's nuclear reactor is contained
and the actual after-effects of radiation are better understood—the underlying
message during the panel discussion was that Japan will indeed recover and that
the terrible events of the past weeks have brought people—and even the
competing political parties—closer together.
