In a CDDRL seminar series talk, FSI’s Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy Larry Diamond provided a comprehensive view of the global state of democracy. Drawing on Freedom House data, he noted that, for the first time since 2006, almost as many countries made gains in freedom as those that experienced declines. While the trend may seem promising, Diamond cautioned that the future of the current global democratic recession is anything but certain.

Diamond’s analysis draws on a democracy measure averaging three different indicators, namely those of Freedom House, Economist Intelligence Unit, and Varieties of Liberal Democracy. Although aggregate global trends show that democratic decline has been moderate since 2006, with the largest erosion occurring in Sub-Saharan Africa, the picture looks more concerning upon closer examination. Among countries with populations over 1 million, the percentage of democracies is only 43 percent, which marks a 20-percentage point drop from 2006. Considering that India and Indonesia can no longer be classified as clearly democratic, Diamond explained, only a quarter of the world’s population today live under democracies (compared to 54 percent in 2006). The ratio of democratic transitions to autocratic breakdowns, moreover, has been declining, especially in the last five years.

Diamond’s presentation underscored the centrality of the rule of law in driving democratic decline rates. Based on Freedom House data, the rule of law has lagged behind political rights and civil liberties in many countries. In explaining the roots of the democratic recession, Diamond highlighted the erosion of normative commitments to democracy, weakening institutions, and poor economic and political performance. 

Despite the alarming global trends and the setbacks suffered in longstanding democracies such as India, the illiberal populist currents driving this democratic recession can be reversed, as evidenced by the recent defeat of Poland’s Law and Justice Party at the polls. Diamond ended his talk by noting that the near-term trajectory of global democracy will largely be shaped by the outcome of elections in the United States and India in 2024.

Watch a recording of Diamond's talk below, or explore upcoming CDDRL events here.

The Fisher Family Summer Fellows on Democracy and Development Program at Stanford University's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law is now accepting applications for our summer 2024 program. The deadline to apply is 5:00 pm PST on Sunday, January 14, 2024.

The program brings together an annual cohort of approximately 30 mid-career practitioners from countries in political transition who are working to advance democratic practices and enact economic and legal reform to promote human development. Launched by CDDRL in 2005, the program was previously known as the Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program. The new name reflects an endowment gift from the Fisher family — Sakurako (Sako), ‘82, and William (Bill), MBA ‘84 — that secures the future of this important and impactful program.

From Afghanistan to Zimbabwe, our program participants are selected from among hundreds of applicants every year for the significant contributions they have already made to their societies and their potential to make an even greater impact with some help from Stanford. We aim to give them the opportunity to join a global network of nearly 500 alumni from 97 countries who have all faced similar sets of challenges in bringing change to their countries.

The Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program provides an intensive 3-week on-campus forum for civil society leaders to exchange experiences and receive academic and policy training to enrich their knowledge and advance their work. Delivered by a leading Stanford faculty team composed of Michael McFaul, Kathryn Stoner, Francis Fukuyama, Larry Diamond, Erik Jensen, and more, the program allows emerging and established global leaders to explore new institutional models and frameworks to enhance their ability to promote good governance, accountable politics, and find new ways to achieve economic development in their home countries.

Prospective fellows from Ukraine are also invited to apply for our Strengthening Ukrainian Democracy and Development (SU-DD) Program, which runs concurrently with the Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program. The SU-DD program provides a unique opportunity for mid-career practitioners working on well-defined projects aimed at strengthening Ukrainian democracy, enhancing human development, and promoting good governance. Applicants to the SU-DD program will use the Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program application portal to apply and indicate their interest there. You will then be directed to a supplemental application for the SU-DD program, which will ask some additional questions specific to the SU-DD program, including requiring a detailed description of your proposed project.

In the ever-changing landscape of modern democracy, CDDRL’s Deliberative Democracy Lab (DDL) stands at the forefront of a movement to promote greater civic engagement and foster meaningful dialogue among citizens. Alice Siu, the Lab’s Associate Director and a senior research scholar at CDDRL, recently took the stage at TEDxStanford to present a talk titled "Deliberative Polling®: Changing the Tides of Democracy."

This year's TEDxStanford event, centered around the theme "Changing Tides," focused on pivotal moments and ideas capable of altering the course of history. Alice was among the nine speakers, comprising a mix of students and faculty, invited to share their insights on transformative topics. Her contribution to the event was an outgrowth of the groundbreaking work she and her team have been doing with Deliberative Polling® and the America in One Room project.

Alice's talk was a call to action for society, presenting a compelling case for the power of deliberative democracy and Deliberative Polling®. As democratic backsliding continues to challenge democratic institutions worldwide, her talk offered a glimmer of hope, demonstrating how the practice of deliberation and engaging with diverse perspectives can alleviate some of our most pressing societal issues.

Deliberative Polling® is a unique approach to engage citizens in constructive dialogue and decision-making. It involves gathering a representative sample of citizens, providing them with access to expert information, and giving them the opportunity to deliberate on key issues. Deliberative Polls have been conducted all over the world, and the evidence Alice shared in her talk illustrates their effectiveness in reducing polarization and fostering consensus.

“What we are doing now at our Lab is trying to bring deliberation to scale,” Alice said in her talk. DDL seeks to bring people together and create opportunities for meaningful engagement through both in-person and virtual means. Their AI-assisted Stanford Online Deliberation Platform, a collaboration with Stanford Professor Ashish Goel and his Crowdsourced Democracy Team, is a pioneering tool in this endeavor. Through technology, they aim to build deliberative societies where people from all walks of life can come together to tackle pressing issues, leading to informed decision-making and collective action.

In a world where division and polarization seem to be the order of the day, Alice's talk offers hope for a new era of citizen engagement where informed, rational discourse supersedes partisan bickering.

As part of the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law’s Fall 2023 Research Seminar series, University of Southern California Political Scientists, Hoover Fellows, and CDDRL affiliated scholars Erin Baggot Carter and Brett Carter presented findings from their latest book Propaganda in Autocracies: Institutions, Information, and the Politics of Belief (Cambridge University Press, 2023). The book offers unique insight into how and why autocratic regimes use propaganda.

Under authoritarian regimes with “non-binding electoral constraints,” the authors explained, the goal of propaganda is to intimidate citizens and convey the idea that the regime can survive without their support. Propaganda in this context also makes the consequences of dissent common knowledge, thereby saving the regime the cost of actual repression. 

As for regimes with binding electoral constraints, their use of propaganda is often aimed at creating a semblance of credibility with a view to enhancing the functioning of future messaging. This involves mixing fact and fiction by exploiting the infrequent provision of public goods and occasionally conceding policy failures. The latter can sometimes prove damaging to the regime since it may contribute to future protests and unrest. 

The data compiled and analyzed by the Carters in this book constitute the world’s largest dataset on propaganda in autocracies, comprising 80 newspapers from 70 countries. Based on extensive coding and computational linguistics techniques, the authors used the coverage of about 8 million articles to build several measures of pro-regime propaganda.