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Beyond Green and Blue? Reassessing and Forecasting the Dynamics of Taiwan's Politics

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This is a CDDRL's Special Seminar within our Democracy in Taiwan Program. In this seminar, Dr. Da-chi Liao will reassess Taiwan's political polarization and make her prediction regarding Taiwan's upcoming legislative and presidential elections.

Dr. Liao is Professor of Graduate Institute of Political Science at National Sun Yat-sen University, Taiwan. She is currently a Fulbright Scholar at The Hoover Institution, Stanford University.

Professor Liao is former President of Taiwanese Political Science Association. She received her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Michigan in 1990. Since then, she has been involving in an international project entitled "Democracy & Local Governance," which has been conducted in more than twenty-six countries at least once throughout the last fifteen years. Dr. Liao has been the project leader of Taiwan since 1993. Her other research interests include issues related to democratization, constitutional development, and legislative institutions. Recently, she is utilizing a new research tool, data-mining, developed by information technologists, to uncover politics beneath the surface.

Dr. Liao has published about 40 refereed articles in journals such as Issues & Studies, Journal of Contemporary China, Chinese Political Science Review, Taiwanese Political Science Review, Sun Yat-sen Journal of Social Sciences, Taiwan Journal of Democracy.

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Da-Chi Liao Visiting Scholar Speaker The Hoover Institution
Seminars

The 2007 Nigerian Elections: Implications for the Future of Democracy

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Rotimi Suberu is a professor of political science at the University of Ibadan, where he has taught since 1986. He is currently Senior Fellow, Jennings Randolph Fellowship Program at the United States Institute of Peace. Suberu has served as a consultant to the Nigerian government, and the EU delegation to Abuja as well as to the National Democratic Institute and National Endowment for Democracy. He recently led a research project on ethnic and federal studies funded by the Ford Foundation. His publications include Federalism and Ethnic Conflict in Nigeria (USIP Press, 2001); Ethnic Minority Conflicts and Governance in Nigeria, (Spectrum Books [Ibadan], 2003); Public Policies and National Unity in Nigeria (Development Policy Center [Ibadan], 1999).

Suberu has won fellowships and visiting positions from the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, the University of Pennsylvania, Northwestern University, New Delhi's Center for the Study of Developing Societies, and from the U.S. Institute of Peace. He holds an M.S. and Ph.D. in political science from the University of Ibadan, Nigeria.

This event is co-sponsored by the Center for African Studies at Stanford.

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Rotimi Suberu Professor of Political Science Speaker University of Ibadan, Nigeria
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Violet Gonda, 2006 Stanford Summer Fellow, awarded Knight Fellowship

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Violet Gonda, former Stanford Summer Fellow on Democracy and Development, was selected as one of 20 John S. Knight Fellows to study at Stanford during the 2007-08 academic year. Gonda is a producer and presenter at "SW Radio Africa." She is an award-winning Zimbabwean journalist who was banned from returning to her country in 2002 because of the work she does as a radio broadcaster. The radio station is forced to broadcast to Zimbabwe from exile in London. During their stays at Stanford, the Knight Fellows will pursue independent courses of study and participate in special seminars. Gonda's research will focus on the development of media in emerging democracies. For this research, she was designated the Yahoo! International Fellow, a fund designated each year to one fellow from a country where the press is under attack. She is the second journalist to be designated this fellowship.
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Conflicting Priorities? Security and Democracy as Challenges to Regionalism in Southeast Asia

Security has been a priority for regionalism in Southeast Asia since well before ASEAN's inception in 1967. Democracy has not. But as Southeast Asia has become at least formally more democratic, some members of the Association have begun to question its original commitment to respecting the national sovereignty of its members and not criticizing abuses within their borders. The stage is now set for a reconsideration of democracy as a legitimate regional concern.

There are at least three (non-mutually-exclusive) ways in which democracy could become a higher priority for ASEAN: (i) instrumentally, if regional elites are sufficiently convinced that a lack of democracy inside a given country makes the larger region insecure; (ii) normatively, to the extent that these elites value transparency, accountability, and the protection of rights and freedoms as regional ends in and of themselves; and (iii) externally, to the extent that such elites are subjected to pressures from domestic and/or foreign actors to make democracy a regional priority.

This conference, and the subsequent volume, will review and assess these possibilities with particular reference to how democracy may be related to security in Southeast Asia. If security is a benefit of democracy, the instrumental case is made. Normatively, security can be enlarged to incorporate democracy as a matter of "human security," to cite an increasingly popular concept. Security-democracy linkages can also be drawn by external actors with democratizing agendas -- governments outside the region as well as activists inside it.

How do security and democracy interact in Southeast Asia? Can and should democracy become a regional priority in Southeast Asia? Why, or why not, to what extent, and with what policy implications -- and recommendations? These are the core questions that the conference and the book will try to answer.

Conference cosponsor: Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University.

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Donald K. Emmerson

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Senior Fellow Emeritus at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Affiliated Faculty, CDDRL
Affiliated Scholar, Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies
aparc_dke.jpg PhD

At Stanford, in addition to his work for the Southeast Asia Program and his affiliations with CDDRL and the Abbasi Program in Islamic Studies, Donald Emmerson has taught courses on Southeast Asia in East Asian Studies, International Policy Studies, and Political Science. He is active as an analyst of current policy issues involving Asia. In 2010 the National Bureau of Asian Research and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars awarded him a two-year Research Associateship given to “top scholars from across the United States” who “have successfully bridged the gap between the academy and policy.”

Emmerson’s research interests include Southeast Asia-China-US relations, the South China Sea, and the future of ASEAN. His publications, authored or edited, span more than a dozen books and monographs and some 200 articles, chapters, and shorter pieces.  Recent writings include The Deer and the Dragon: Southeast Asia and China in the 21st Century (ed., 2020); “‘No Sole Control’ in the South China Sea,” in Asia Policy  (2019); ASEAN @ 50, Southeast Asia @ Risk: What Should Be Done? (ed., 2018); “Singapore and Goliath?,” in Journal of Democracy (2018); “Mapping ASEAN’s Futures,” in Contemporary Southeast Asia (2017); and “ASEAN Between China and America: Is It Time to Try Horsing the Cow?,” in Trans-Regional and –National Studies of Southeast Asia (2017).

Earlier work includes “Sunnylands or Rancho Mirage? ASEAN and the South China Sea,” in YaleGlobal (2016); “The Spectrum of Comparisons: A Discussion,” in Pacific Affairs (2014); “Facts, Minds, and Formats: Scholarship and Political Change in Indonesia” in Indonesian Studies: The State of the Field (2013); “Is Indonesia Rising? It Depends” in Indonesia Rising (2012); “Southeast Asia: Minding the Gap between Democracy and Governance,” in Journal of Democracy (April 2012); “The Problem and Promise of Focality in World Affairs,” in Strategic Review (August 2011); An American Place at an Asian Table? Regionalism and Its Reasons (2011); Asian Regionalism and US Policy: The Case for Creative Adaptation (2010); “The Useful Diversity of ‘Islamism’” and “Islamism: Pros, Cons, and Contexts” in Islamism: Conflicting Perspectives on Political Islam (2009); “Crisis and Consensus: America and ASEAN in a New Global Context” in Refreshing U.S.-Thai Relations (2009); and Hard Choices: Security, Democracy, and Regionalism in Southeast Asia (edited, 2008).

Prior to moving to Stanford in 1999, Emmerson was a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he won a campus-wide teaching award. That same year he helped monitor voting in Indonesia and East Timor for the National Democratic Institute and the Carter Center. In the course of his career, he has taken part in numerous policy-related working groups focused on topics related to Southeast Asia; has testified before House and Senate committees on Asian affairs; and been a regular at gatherings such as the Asia Pacific Roundtable (Kuala Lumpur), the Bali Democracy Forum (Nusa Dua), and the Shangri-La Dialogue (Singapore). Places where he has held various visiting fellowships, including the Institute for Advanced Study and the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. 



Emmerson has a Ph.D. in political science from Yale and a BA in international affairs from Princeton. He is fluent in Indonesian, was fluent in French, and has lectured and written in both languages. He has lesser competence in Dutch, Javanese, and Russian. A former slam poet in English, he enjoys the spoken word and reads occasionally under a nom de plume with the Not Yet Dead Poets Society in Redwood City, CA. He and his wife Carolyn met in high school in Lebanon. They have two children. He was born in Tokyo, the son of U.S. Foreign Service Officer John K. Emmerson, who wrote the Japanese Thread among other books.

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Donald K. Emmerson Senior Fellow Panelist Shorenstein APARC, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Mely Caballero Anthony Assistant Professor Panelist S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University
Termsak Chalermpalanupap Director of Research Panelist ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta, Indonesia
Joern Dosch Professor, Asia Pacific Studies Panelist University of Leeds
Kyaw Yin Hlaing Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science Panelist National University of Singapore
Brian Job Director, Centre of International Relations Panelist University of British Columbia
David Jones Senior Lecturer, Political Science Panelist University of Queensland
Erik Kuhonta Assistant Professor Panelist Department of Political Science, McGill University, Montreal, Canada
Michael Malley Assistant Professor, Department of National Security Affairs Panelist Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey
Rizal Sukma Deputy Executive Director Panelist Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta
Simon SC Tay Chairman Panelist Singapore Institute of International Affairs
Dionisio da Costa Babo Soares Co-Chairman, Commission of Truth and Friendship Panelist Timor Leste, Indonesia
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Venezuela: Revolutionizing Energy Integration and Democracy

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Ambassador Bernardo Alvarez, formerly Vice Minister of Hydrocarbons in the Ministry of Energy and Mines, is also Professor in the School of Political and Adminstrative Studies at the Universidad Central de Venezuela.In addition to his previous positions in the Ministry of Energy and Mines, he is currently the Venezuelan Representative to the Energy Council of the U.S. and has coordinated different international agreements with the U.S. Department of Energy, the French Energy Task Force, and the Conferences of Ministers of OPEC. He served as Deputy of the National Congress of Venezuela from 1994-1999.

This event is co-sponsored by the Woods Institute for the Environment, The Progam for Energy and Sustainable Development, and the Center for Latin American Studies.

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Bernardo Alvarez Ambassador of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela to the United States Speaker
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Democracy Promotion by Multilateral Organizations: the Case of the OSCE

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The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) was one of the first multilateral bodies where its members states, including the US, Russia, all other post-Soviet and European countries, agreed that democracy, rule of law, and human rights were an indivisible part of security. In the mid-1990s the star of the OSCE was on the rise: the organization deployed large multi-disciplinary field missions throughout the former Yugoslavia; it was involved in the protection of rights of ethnic minorities in the Baltics; it was designated to lead conflict-resolution efforts in the post-Soviet space. In addition, the OSCE was conducting election observation and democracy-promotion efforts in the region. With time, however, the consensus of the 1990s has eroded and the effectiveness of the organization is increasingly put into question by some of its member states. What can be learned from the OSCE's experiences? Can multilateral organizations effectively promote democracy in absence of consensus among its member states? The presenter will give a practitioner's perspective on these questions.

About the speaker
Dr. Vladimir Shkolnikov has served as the Head of Democratization Department in the Warsaw-based Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (ODIHR/OSCE) since spring 2004. He is responsible for direction and management of ODIHR's democracy-promotion technical assistance programs in areas of rule of law, parliamentary support, political party development, gender equality, and migration policy development in the former Soviet states and in Southeastern Europe. Prior to assuming his post he held positions of migration adviser and election adviser at the ODIHR. He has traveled extensively, including to most of the conflict areas in the post-Soviet space. Prior to joining the ODIHR he was resident research consultant at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica, CA. He received his Ph.D. in public policy analysis from the Pardee RAND Graduate School of Policy Studies.

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Vladimir Shkolnikov Head of Democratization Department Speaker Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, OSCE
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Indonesia's Iran Problem: The Double-Edged Impact of Democratization on Foreign Policy

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How has Iran become the most serious foreign policy issue in Indonesian politics? Since democracy was restored to Indonesia in 1999, governments there have had to balance public demands for a strong, independent foreign policy against the reality that the economic and political crises of the past decade have limited Jakarta's influence in global politics. Earlier in this period, presidents and foreign ministers faced little more than sporadic challenges over issues that stood little chance of affecting Indonesian foreign policy beyond Southeast Asia. More recently, however, Iran has actively courted Indonesian legislative and civil society leaders, and they, in turn, have pressed their government to oppose international efforts to curb Tehran's nuclear programs. They sharply criticized the Yudhoyono government for failing to oppose a motion in the International Atomic Energy Agency to refer Iran to the UN Security Council in 2006. This year they triggered a heated debate by opposing the government's decision to join a unanimous Security Council vote that broadened sanctions on Iran. Prof. Malley will examine these trends and assess their implications for Indonesian foreign policy and international security.

Michael Malley teaches comparative and Southeast Asian politics at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey. Before joining the School in 2004, he taught at Ohio University. He earned a PhD in political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, an MA in Asian Studies at Cornell University, and a BS at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service.

This is the Southeast Asia Forum's fifth seminar of the 2006-2007 academic year.

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Michael Malley Assistant Professor, Department of National Security Affairs Speaker Naval Postgraduate School
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The Demon Within

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Michael A. McFaul
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In the wake of the August 1998 financial meltdown, many predicted that political breakdown would soon follow. Throughout the summer and fall, Russian analysts of all political orientations began to speak openly and often about the specter of Russian fascism should the economic crisis continue. Others, including even Yeltsin, have warned about coup plots aimed at toppling Russia's fragile democracy. The threat of Russian federal dissolution also loomed as a possible nightmare scenario as individual regional leaders began to deal with the economic crisis with little regard for national laws or national interests. In this new political context, challenges to Russian electoral democracy have proliferated. Before August 1998, it was taboo to speak of, let alone advocate, alternatives to elections as the method for selecting political leaders. After August 1998, discussions of alternatives have renewed again.

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