Following the success of the first conference held in January 2002, the Asia/Pacific Research Center and the US Army War College plan to hold a second conference in January 2003. Its theme is "The Prospects for Peace in South Asia." The participants will address several topics: the role of religion in the politics of the region (primarily in Kashmir, but also in Indian and Pakistani politics), the political role of the Pakistani army, and the new challenges that nuclear weapons and the global war on terrorism have introduced. Possible lessons for the United States in trying to prevent war in South Asia as well as furthering its aims in the war on terrorism will be discussed. The conference speakers will provide an understanding of Kashmir, the role of religion in South Asian politics, local culture and attitudes, US military perspectives on South Asia and the situations and politics in India and Pakistan.

When Shorenstein APARC's 2002 South Asia conference was being planned at Shorenstein APARC, the events of September 11, 2001 had not taken place. To Americans, September 11 is mostly associated with the war against terrorism. However, the impact of 9-11 on longstanding political relations between India and Pakistan is less understood. Without such an understanding, it is difficult to explain why India and Pakistan have twice almost gone to war in the past months due to acts of terrorism linked to September 11.

Kashmir is the main locus of the two countries' dispute. There is much history on why disagreements over Kashmir have created political problems: they began with the handing over of Kashmir to India in 1947 and have continued with rigged elections, poor governance, military occupation, and indigenous and Pakistani-supported militancy, up to the present day.

The risk of nuclear war between India and Pakistan arising from the Kashmir dispute remains high. Local elections in both Pakistan and Kashmir over the next few months might prevent war till then, while affecting the dynamics of the future. The United States is keenly concerned with the possibility of war and has been actively engaged in diplomacy, with more senior American officials visiting South Asia in 2002 than at any time in the past.

Indian and Pakistani politics have also taken new turns. In India, the ruling NDA is dominated by the BJP, a party with past links to militant Hinduism. India is constitutionally secular and Muslims have played an important political role, though more as a vote-bank (comprising 14 percent of the population) and less, particularly in recent times, as influential decision-makers. This influence may be set to decline further. Economic uncertainties and the polarization of religious communities in some areas (after sectarian riots) have led the BJP to believe that a return to its aggressive roots might be politically successful. This leads to a need for understanding of how India's future will be affected by its great religions, Hinduism and Islam.

In Pakistan, recent political developments have concentrated power almost entirely in the hands of President Musharraf, a situation that may persist after its upcoming elections. This lack of institutionalization of political processes and power poses new risks to the security environment in the subcontinent.

Larry Diamond, Senior Fellow, The Hoover Institution and Professor of Political Science & Sociology, Stanford University. A specialist on democratic development, Professor Diamond is studying public opinion in Taiwan, where he will serve as an official observer of the parliamentary election. He is co-editor of Journal of Democracy. Phillip C. Saunders, Director, East Asia Nonproliferation Program, Monterey Institute of International Studies. Professor Saunders studies Sino-US relations and East Asian security issues. He is the author of Project Strait Talk: Security and Stability in the Taiwan Strait. Thomas Gold, Professor of Sociology, University of California, Berkeley A specialist on the democratic transition in Taiwan, Professor Gold is the author of "The Waning of the Kuomintang State on Taiwan," in State Capacity in East Asia. He will be an official observer of Taiwan's parliamentary elections. Taiwan politics were turned upside-down in March 2000, when the Kuomintang was defeated in the presidential election, ending 55 years of one-party rule. Now, polls show the KMT is likely to lose its parliamentary majority in the December 2001 elections, a development which would dismay Beijing, sideline one of Asia's oldest political movements, trigger profound realignments in Taiwan's internal politics, and transform relations between Taiwan, China, and the United States. The election results and their implications will be discussed in a roundtable discussion with the three panelists. A buffet lunch will be served.

Ms. Christine Loh is a former member of the Legislative Council of Hong Kong, and the Founder of Civic Exchange, a non-governmental organization. She was a popular politician but decided not to run again for re-election to the legislature of Hong Kong last year. She now heads Civic Exchange in Hong Kong. She is one of the most insightful commentators on Hong Kong affairs.

Christine will speak on "Hong Kong: Its Contribution to 'One Country'."

A brief biographical sketch of Christine's is enclosed:

"Thinking gets better when we think often. Thinking is fun because it creates new possibilities in the way we live our lives, Research helps to drive thinking. Thinking in groups helps leverage our collective intelligence and can lead to breakthroughs. I want the Civic Exchange to produce pragmatic solutions to public policy problems. I also want to be able to synthesize and publicize other people's good ideas."

Education

• University of Hull, England
• Bachelor of Law City University of Hong Kong
• Masters of Law in Chinese & Comparative Law

Awards

• Outstanding Young Persons Award 1988 Stars of Asia, Business Week 1998
• Stars of Asia, Business Week 2000

Affiliations

• Chairperson, Friends of the Earth (HK) - 1988-1990- and 1990-1992.
• Board of Directors, Rocky Mountain Institute, Colorado, USA, 1998-2001
• Council Member - Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, 1999-2002

Experience

Christine Loh is well known for her wide-ranging intellect and ability to find practical solutions to problems. Her background in law, business, politics, media and the non-profit sector has given her considerable knowledge and insight about how they work and has helped her to become a leading voice in public policy in Hong Kong.

Loh has authored numerous papers, articles and public policy recommendations in a large number of local and international publications. The Economist described her in April 2000 as "perhaps LegCo's most gifted member". Business Week named her in 1998 and again in 2000 as one of Asia's Stars. Trained as a lawyer, Loh did not practise law but enjoyed a highly successful 12-year career with a multinational as a commodities trader from 1980-1991, rising to the position of managing director, before spending another 2 years as a director of business development with a Hong Kong company, responsible for putting together the LoFt retail stores, and an international consortium to bid for Container Terminal No. 9.

Appointed to the Legislative Council (LegCo) in 1992, running in two elections subsequently, Loh had a popular career as a politician until 2000 when she chose not to seek re-election. Her legislative successes were many, the most high profile being amending the law to enable the indigenous women of the New Territories to inherit rural land, restructuring the controversial section 30 of the Prevention of Bribery Ordinance, and sponsoring the historic Protection of the Harbor Ordinance.

From 1991, Loh has anchored public affairs radio programs at various times. She has also presented a variety of TV programs apart from being the subject of many more. She is a much sought after public speaker. With Lisa Hopkinson she founded Civic Exchange in September 2000. Loh is responsible for charting the Civic Exchange's long-term course.

His Excellency Sung Chul Yang, Ambassador of the Republic of Korea to the United States, is a well-known political scientist and author with a long and distinguished career in academia and politics. From 1996 to the time of his posting in Washington, Ambassador Yang served as a member of the Korean National Assembly. He also served as president of the Unification and Policy Forum, and chairman of the International Cooperation Committee for the National Congress for New Politics during this period. He worked as vice chair of the Unification and Foreign Affairs Committee, and was a member of the Political Reform Committee. Most recently, Ambassador Yang served as an executive member of the New Millennium Democratic Party's 21st Century National Affairs Advisory Committee. Outside of the National Assembly, Ambassador Yang has been involved in government and politics for many years. He served as the secretary-general of the Association of Korean Political Scientists in North America and as president of the Korean Association of International Studies. He has also been a member of the Advisory Committees of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of National Defense, and the National Unification Board. In addition to his involvement in government, Ambassador Yang has had a successful career in academia. He was a professor at Eastern Kentucky University from 1970-75 and at the University of Kentucky from 1975-86. He has been a visiting professor at Northwestern University, Pembroke State University, Indiana University, and Seoul National University. From 1987-94 Ambassador Yang held the position of dean of Academic Affairs at the Graduate Institute of Peace Studies at Kyung Hee University in Seoul. Ambassador Yang is the author of several books on Korean issues, including The North and South Korean Political Systems: A Comparative Analysis (Westview, 1994). He is also a much sought after contributor to many political science journals. He has been interviewed often by leading newspapers, magazines and radio stations from around the world. Ambassador Yang received his doctorate in Political Science from the University of Kentucky (1970), earlier receiving an MA from the University of Hawaii (1967), and a BA from Seoul National University (1964). From 1960-62 he served in the Korean Army.

In Southeast Asia, partial recovery from financial crisis has been accompanied by signs of the start of a local version of America's internet business boom. E-businesses and dotcom start-ups have emerged. Political and business leaders have touted the virtues of the so-called "new economy" and its potential for resolving the post-crisis malaise that still affects parts of the region. But is the e-business revolution in Southeast Asia real? Are technologies and business practices being transformed? Or is the "new economy" mainly hype and wishful thinking? Does e-business spell the death of monopolies and conglomerates at the hands of agile new entrants? Or is it popular because it provides an alternative to fundamental business restructuring? And what do the answers to these questions imply for economic recovery and political reform? Linda Lim is the associate director of the International Institute and Director of the Southeast Asia Business Program at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. She has written and lectured extensively on political economy, economic development, and business practices in Southeast Asia, where she recently completed preliminary field research on the appearance and growth of electronic business.