Governance

FSI's research on the origins, character and consequences of government institutions spans continents and academic disciplines. The institute’s senior fellows and their colleagues across Stanford examine the principles of public administration and implementation. Their work focuses on how maternal health care is delivered in rural China, how public action can create wealth and eliminate poverty, and why U.S. immigration reform keeps stalling. 

FSI’s work includes comparative studies of how institutions help resolve policy and societal issues. Scholars aim to clearly define and make sense of the rule of law, examining how it is invoked and applied around the world. 

FSI researchers also investigate government services – trying to understand and measure how they work, whom they serve and how good they are. They assess energy services aimed at helping the poorest people around the world and explore public opinion on torture policies. The Children in Crisis project addresses how child health interventions interact with political reform. Specific research on governance, organizations and security capitalizes on FSI's longstanding interests and looks at how governance and organizational issues affect a nation’s ability to address security and international cooperation.

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Abstract: In 1992, the United States stood at the pinnacle of world power and Americans were confident that a new era of peace and prosperity was at hand. Twenty-five years later, those hopes have been dashed. Relations with Russia and China have soured, the European Union is wobbling, democracy is in retreat, and the United States is stuck in costly and pointless wars.

The root of this dismal record is the foreign policy elite’s stubborn commitment to a strategy of “liberal hegemony.” Since the end of the Cold War, Republicans and Democrats alike have tried to use U.S. power to spread democracy, and other liberal values around the world. This strategy was doomed to fail, but its proponents elite were never held accountable and kept repeating the same mistakes. 

Donald Trump won the presidency promising to end these misguided policies, but his erratic style of governing and flawed grasp of world politics have made a bad situation worse. The best alternative is a return to a strategy of “offshore balancing,” eschewing regime change, nation-building, and other forms of global social engineering.  This long-overdue shift will require creating a foreign policy elite with a more realistic view of American power. 

 

Speaker Bio: Stephen M. Walt is Robert and Renée Belfer Professor of International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School. He is a contributing editor at Foreign Policy, co-editor of the Cornell Studies in Security Affairs, and was elected a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in May 200.  He received the ISA’s Distinguished Senior Scholar award in 2014.  His writings include The Origins of Alliances (1987) Revolution and War (1996), Taming American Power: The Global Response to U.S. Primacy, and The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy (co-authored with John J. Mearsheimer, 2007).  His latest book is The Hell of Good Intentions: America’s Foreign Policy Elite and the Decline of U.S. Primacy (2018).

Stephen Walt Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs Harvard Kennedy School
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Abstract: Australia is dealing with nuclear waste disposal issues on two separate fronts.  In 2015, South Australia began to consider expanding their role in the nuclear fuel cycle as a way to leverage their nuclear expertise, based on their extensive uranium mining.  A Royal Commission proposed consideration of the development of a deep geologic repository for high-level radioactive waste from international sources (since Australia has none).  In 2016 Premier Jay Weatherill decided against an international repository after a community-based consultation process also opposed it.  At the same time, the Commonwealth of Australia has revived its search for a low-level radioactive waste disposal site and a storage facility for intermediate-level waste. Again, South Australia is in play, with three sites volunteering their land for further consideration.  As a result, a siting process is ongoing in Kimba and Barndioota, South Australia, with sides both strongly for and adamantly against development of a low-level waste facility in their community.  Both nuclear waste situations have informed and affected the other, but it’s not clear that South Australia is ready to host nuclear waste any time soon in the near future.


Speaker Bio: Allison M. Macfarlane is Professor of Science and Technology Policy at George Washington University and Director of the Center for International Science and Technology Policy at the University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. She recently served as Chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission from July, 2012 until December, 2014. As Chairman, Dr. Macfarlane had ultimate responsibility for the safety of all U.S. commercial nuclear reactors, for the regulation of medical radiation and nuclear waste in the U.S., and for representing the U.S. in negotiations with international nuclear regulators. She was nominated by President Obama and confirmed by the Senate. She was the agency’s 15th Chairman, its 3rd woman chair, and the only person with a background in geology to serve on the Commission.

Dr. Macfarlane holds a doctorate in geology from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a bachelor's of science degree in geology from the University of Rochester. During her academic career, she held fellowships at Radcliffe College, MIT, Stanford, and Harvard Universities. She has been on the faculty at Georgia Tech in Earth Science and International Affairs and at George Mason University in Environmental Science and Policy.

From 2010 to 2012 she served on the Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future, created by the Obama Administration to make recommendations about a national strategy for dealing with the nation's high-level nuclear waste. She has served on National Academy of Sciences panels on nuclear energy and nuclear weapons issues. Dr. Macfarlane has also chaired the Science and Security Board of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the folks who set the “doomsday clock.”

Her research has focused on environmental policy and international security issues associated with nuclear energy. Her expertise is in nuclear waste disposal, nuclear energy, regulatory issues, and science and technology policy. As Chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, she pushed for a more open dialogue with the public, for greater engagement with international nuclear regulators and, following the Fukushima accident, for stricter safety protocols at U.S. nuclear reactors. She also advocated for a more family-friendly workplace.  She has spoken on a wide range of topics, from women and science to nuclear policy and regulatory politics.

In 2006, MIT Press published a book she co-edited, Uncertainty Underground: Yucca Mountain and the Nation's High-Level Nuclear Waste, which explored technical issues at the proposed waste disposal facility at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Dr. Macfarlane has published extensively in academia and her work has appeared in Science, Nature, American Scientist, The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, and Environment Magazine.

 

Allison Macfarlane Director, Center for International Science and Technology Policy Elliot School of International Affairs, George Washington University
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Abstract: Why are some rebel groups able to seamlessly transition into political parties on the heels of war while others revert to violence or die trying? Drawing on insights from organizational sociology, I argue that the answer lies in the previously unacknowledged diversity of rebel organizational structures during war. I identify three wartime domains that I call "proto-party" structures: shadow governance, political messaging, and social service wings. I demonstrate that these structures---by mirroring the key components of political party organizations---provide insurgencies with two decisive advantages when attempting to transition into a party: (1) relevant experience that translates into the political arena, and (2) an easier path to transition by repurposing existing structures rather than building a party from scratch. I test this theory using a combination of statistical analysis on a novel dataset and process tracing the FMLN's transformation in El Salvador. 

Speaker Bio: Sherry Zaks is currently a postdoctoral fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation. She received her Ph.D. from the University of California, Berkeley in 2017. Next year, she’ll be joining the faculty of the University of Southern California as an Assistant Professor of Comparative Politics. Sherry’s book project and current substantive work examine the conditions under which rebel groups transition into political parties in the aftermath of civil war. Drawing on theoretical tools from organizational sociology, she models rebel-to-party transformation as a process of organizational resilience and adaptation. The dissertation on which the book project is based was recently awarded the prize for best dissertation in peace science by the United States Institute of Peace. Sherry also works on political methodology with a focus on refining tools for qualitative inference and developing rigorous standards for dataset construction and evaluation. Her work has appeared in Comparative Politics and Political Analysis.

Sherry Zaks Carnegie Post-doctoral Fellow CISAC, Stanford University
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In Malaysia, criminality is a highly political question, and that is mainly why local scholarship on the topic is rare. Yet political participation by outlaws and criminalized groups is not new. Begun in 2008, Dr. Lemière’s research explores uncharted territory: how criminality related to politics in semi-authoritarian Malaysia, with a focus on the ruling party (UMNO) from 2008 to 2018.  She shows how gangs have created umbrella (Malay) NGOs, like Pekida (shown here in caricature), to formalize their ties to political parties. For gangs, political militancy has become a business; political parties (mostly UMNO) have sub-contracted political actions and violence to such groups. Dr. Lemière’s research raises question regarding the nature of civil society and democratization, and offers a new perspective of ethno-religious controversies and clashes in the 20th and 21st centuries.

Sophie Lemière is a political anthropologist at Harvard’s Ash Center for Democracy in its program on Democracy in Hard Places. Her research examines the nexus between religion, politics, and criminality in a comparative perspective. She will be at Stanford in the fall before transferring to the National University of Singapore in the spring.

Dr. Lemière has held research positions in Singapore at the Asia Research Institute (NUS) and the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (NTU).  She has been a visiting fellow at the University of Sydney, Cornell, UC Berkeley, and Columbia. She received her PhD from Sciences-Po in Paris. Her dissertation was the first study on the political links between gangs and umbrella NGOs in Malaysia.  Her master’s research on apostasy controversies and Islamic civil society was awarded second prize for young scholars by the International Institute for the Study of Islam in the Modern World (1998-2008) in Leiden.

Dr. Lemière believes it is essential for academics to disseminate their research findings widely, especially in the countries they study. Accordingly, her publications have been written both general and academic readers within and beyond Malaysia. She is the editor of a series of books on “Malaysian Politics and People.” Misplaced Democracy was released in 2014.  Illusions of Democracy (2017) will be re-published in 2018, and a third volume is expected in 2019, when her monograph “Gangsters and Masters: Complicit Militancy and Authoritarian Politics” will also appear. She is currently working on a political biography of Malaysia’s current prime minister during his recent campaign: “The Last Game: Malaysian Politics through Mahathir’s Eyes.”

Dr. Lemière maintains a blog on Mediapart and contributes regularly to New Mandala, The Conversation, Le Monde, and Libération among other outlets.  She has also begun to develop several documentary film projects with French production companies, including a series on arts and politics. Her first film “9/43” featuring the Malaysian cartoonist Zunar was chosen one of the 25 best movies at the French short-film festival Infracourt in 2016.

Sophie Lemière 2018-19 Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Fellow on Contemporary Southeast Asia
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How do populism and nationalism challenge democracy? Can they instead help to sustain it? This panel explores the causes of the global populist upsurge, from popular discontent to economic shocks. Nationalism and populism are powerful, compatible, and resonant ideologies. As a result, they can legitimate leaders and mobilize citizens – and pose dramatic challenges to liberal democracy.

Panel discussion featuring 2018-19 CASBS fellows Eva Anduiza, Bart Bonikowski, and Maya Tudor.


Guest moderator: Anna Grzymala-Busse, Director, Global Populisms Project, The Europe Center, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

 

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 Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences (CASBS)75 Alta Road
Stanford CA
Eva Anduiza Panelist Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona
Bart Bonikowski Panelist Harvard University
Maya Tudor Panelist Oxford University

Encina Hall
616 Jane Stanford Way
Stanford, CA  94305

 

(650) 723-4270
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies
Professor of Political Science
Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
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Anna Grzymała-Busse is a professor in the Department of Political Science, the Michelle and Kevin Douglas Professor of International Studies, senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the director of The Europe Center. Her research interests include political parties, state development and transformation, informal political institutions, religion and politics, and post-communist politics.

In her first book, Redeeming the Communist Past, she examined the paradox of the communist successor parties in East Central Europe: incompetent as authoritarian rulers of the communist party-state, several then succeeded as democratic competitors after the collapse of these communist regimes in 1989.

Rebuilding Leviathan, her second book project, investigated the role of political parties and party competition in the reconstruction of the post-communist state. Unless checked by a robust competition, democratic governing parties simultaneously rebuilt the state and ensured their own survival by building in enormous discretion into new state institutions.

Anna's third book, Nations Under God, examines why some churches have been able to wield enormous policy influence. Others have failed to do so, even in very religious countries. Where religious and national identities have historically fused, churches gained great moral authority, and subsequently covert and direct access to state institutions. It was this institutional access, rather than either partisan coalitions or electoral mobilization, that allowed some churches to become so powerful.

Anna's most recent book, Sacred Foundations: The Religious and Medieval Roots of the European State argues that the medieval church was a fundamental force in European state formation.

Other areas of interest include informal institutions, the impact of European Union membership on politics in newer member countries, and the role of temporality and causal mechanisms in social science explanations.

Director of The Europe Center
Moderator
Panel Discussions
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Asia has achieved remarkable progress on economic development and poverty reduction over the past decades. It is now considered as the main driver of global economic growth and we are witnessing the shift of economic center of gravity toward Asia. Continued success is, however, not preordained or guaranteed. More specifically, the region has to manage several mega-challenges to realize the "Asian Century." These include remaining poverty incidence and increasing inequality, demographic changes, growing environmental pressure, climate change and disaster risk, rapid urbanization, and governance and institutional capacity concern. These increasingly complex challenges pressure Asian countries to take a more sustainable development path, moving away from more traditional development patterns. 

The world is experiencing various technological advancement —including digital and cloud technologies, big data, robotics, artificial intelligence, the internet of things, 3-D printing, blockchain, energy storage, and autonomous vehicles. These technologies will significantly change the way people live and also bring very broad and deep impact on economic and social development landscape. The progress and impacts of technological advancement may be different between developed and developing countries. Will disruptive technologies help developing countries in Asia and the Pacific to solve development challenges or harm their catch-up momentum? What are opportunities and risks posed by emerging technological changes to developing countries in that region? How will developing countries and the international development community prepare to fully harness technological advancements for sustainable development? These are some of the areas to be explored in this seminar.

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Gilhong Kim is currently a visiting scholar in the Korea Program at Shorenstein APARC for the 2018 calendar year. Previously, he was Senior Director concurrently Chief Sector Officer of the Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department in Asian Development Bank (ADB). His research interests encompass technological development and impact on developing countries in Asia and the Pacific. Dr. Kim has more than 33 years of research and operational experience in country and regional development, sectoral strategies and operations covering clean energy, transport, water supply and sanitation, urban development, education, health and finance. Since 1996, Dr. Kim has worked for ADB in the areas of country economic assessment and country operational program development, corporate strategy and policy development, country field office head (in Lao PDR), sector operational strategy development, operational knowledge management, and promoted technology application and innovative approach.  Before joining ADB, he worked for Ministry of Finance in Korea for about 12 years in the areas of economic cooperation and international finance. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Texas, Austin, and a BA in economics from Korea University in Korea. 

Philippines Conference Room Encina Hall, 3rd Floor 616 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305

 

616 Serra StreetEncina Hall E301Stanford, CA94305-6055
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Dr. Gilhong Kim joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center for the 2018 year as visiting scholar.  He currently serves as the Senior Director and Chief Sector Officer of the Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department at the Asian Development Bank.  He will be conducting research on technological development and impact in the Asia-Pacific.

Visiting Scholar at APARC
<i>Visiting Scholar, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University</i>
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Visiting Student Researcher at The Europe Center, 2018-2019
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Diane Bolet is a Visiting Student Researcher in comparative politics and European studies from the London School of Economics and Political Science. She is researching local factors behind voting behaviour and on far-right votes in particular. She investigates the effects of local immigration, voluntary associations and social networks on far-right electoral support in Europe. Her research interests include voting behavior, electoral geography and quantitative methods.

 

Diane holds a dual master degree in European Studies from Sciences Po and LSE (with Distinction). Prior to that, she completed a first-class honors Bachelor of Arts in International Politics at King's College, London.

 

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Abstract: This research proposes, develops, and demonstrates a quantitative risk analytic method for integrating a set of modern deterrence considerations with respect to nuclear weapon arsenals and policies. These considerations include multiple prospective models of antagonist behaviors, multiple levels of conflict escalation, multiple weapon capabilities and effects, and nuanced policies for protagonists and antagonists. A mathematical basis for this approach is developed on the foundation of infinite-horizon, risk-sensitive Interactive Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (IPOMDP). This foundation allows multiple decision agents to identify optimal policies when managing conflict scenarios in the face of the tradeoff between achieving political goals and avoiding the consequences of various forms of conflict. A set of deterrence-effectiveness metrics that center on the probability of specific opponent actions and conflict outcomes occurring are suggested, and a method for evaluating them is proposed. The resulting modeling and analysis framework captures complex behaviors and escalation dynamics, identifies approximately optimal policies in specific conflict scenarios, and is extensible to a large array of possible conflict scenarios. An example analysis, based on fictitious data, analyzes a bilateral, nuclear-armed, peer-state competition in a conflict escalation scenario. The example analysis evaluates various nuclear weapons arsenals and stated employment policies by examining the optimal conflict management solutions produced by the method and by comparing deterrence-effectiveness metrics. The products of this research can serve as a foundation for future work to expand the model’s capabilities and enhance its performance. Most importantly, it will provide valuable insights to policy and decision makers in government.

Speaker Bio: Jason C. Reinhardt is a national security systems analyst and Distinguished Member of Technical Staff at Sandia National Laboratories. His work focuses on probabilistic analysis methods, quantitative and non-quantitative approaches for risk analysis and management, as well as the modeling and analysis of strategic interaction in conflict escalation, asymmetric deterrence, and stability. Jason received his Ph.D. in Risk Analysis from Stanford University School of Engineering’s Department of Management Science and Engineering. He also holds a M.S. in Electrical Engineering from Stanford University, and a B.S. in Electrical Engineering from the Purdue School of Electrical Engineering at Indianapolis.

 

 

Jason Reinhardt National Security Systems Analyst Sandia National Laboratories
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Abstract:

Today, nearly 9% of people in Latin America identify as Indigenous, ranging from 2% in Argentina to 30% in Guatemala with high within-country variation. Levels of Indigenous self-identification have also increased in the last decades in the region. Using a multi-method approach that combines surveys, archival research, text analysis, and machine learning, I study how different institutional frameworks have shaped the persistence of language, Indigenous last-names, and local governance from the colonial times to the 21st century. I also provide a novel theoretical framework to understand Indigenous agency and their capacity to resist, survive and adapt to colonial rule.

 

Speaker Bio:

I am

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a PhD candidate in Political Science at Stanford University with an interest in the political economy of development and comparative politics. I was born and raised in Mexico City where I also attended college at ITAM, majoring in Economics and Political Science. After graduating college, I worked for two years at a policy think-tank in Mexico City. Before starting the PhD I completed a masters at Stanford in educational policy and public policy.

 

PhD candidate in Political Science at Stanford University
Seminars
Encina Hall, 10D MIP Suite, 616 Jane Stanford Way Stanford, CA 94305
(650) 723-7818
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Dr. Chonira Aturupane is a Senior Research Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, and Senior Associate Director, Academic and Student Affairs, at the Ford Dorsey Master’s in International Policy (MIP) program at the Freeman Spogli Institute (FSI), Stanford University. She teaches the MIP courses, The Global Economy, Trade and Development, and Economics of Corruption. Her research interests include economic growth, international trade, international finance, and corruption. Prior to coming to Stanford in 2004, she was an Economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington D.C., where she focused on IMF policy and review, and participated in IMF missions to Azerbaijan, Mongolia, and Samoa. She was also an external consultant to the IMF’s Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) on international trade policy. Additionally, she served on the FSI Racial Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion (REDI) Task Force in 2020-2021. She received a BA in Economics summa cum laude (with highest honors in Economics) from Smith College, Massachusetts, and an MA and Ph.D. in Economics from Stanford University.

Senior Associate Director, Academic and Student Affairs at the Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy
Senior Research Scholar, Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
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