FSI's research on the origins, character and consequences of government institutions spans continents and academic disciplines. The institute’s senior fellows and their colleagues across Stanford examine the principles of public administration and implementation. Their work focuses on how maternal health care is delivered in rural China, how public action can create wealth and eliminate poverty, and why U.S. immigration reform keeps stalling.
FSI’s work includes comparative studies of how institutions help resolve policy and societal issues. Scholars aim to clearly define and make sense of the rule of law, examining how it is invoked and applied around the world.
FSI researchers also investigate government services – trying to understand and measure how they work, whom they serve and how good they are. They assess energy services aimed at helping the poorest people around the world and explore public opinion on torture policies. The Children in Crisis project addresses how child health interventions interact with political reform. Specific research on governance, organizations and security capitalizes on FSI's longstanding interests and looks at how governance and organizational issues affect a nation’s ability to address security and international cooperation.
Center members are cordially invited to the Shorenstein APARC 2019 - 2020 Orientation Luncheon on Tuesday, October 1, 2019. Please come join us to meet new colleagues and learn about research and projects taking place this year, while enjoying lunch together.
Thirty years ago this week, I watched the news from Beijing and started shredding my bedding. It was the night before my college graduation, I had been studying Chinese politics, and news had broken that college students just like us had been gunned down in Tiananmen Square after weeks of peaceful and exhilarating democracy protests—carried on international TV. In the iconic square where Mao Zedong had proclaimed the People’s Republic decades before, bespectacled students from China’s best universities had camped out, putting up posters with slogans of freedom in Chinese and English. A “goddess of democracy” figure modeled after the Statue of Liberty embodied their hopes—and ours—for political liberation in China.
On my campus back then were just a handful of students majoring in East Asian studies. Learning of the brutal crackdown in Beijing, we somehow found one another, gathered our friends, and stayed up making hundreds of white armbands for classmates to wear at commencement the next day. Grappling with the cold realities of the “real world” we were about to enter, we didn’t know what else to do. So we tore sheets and cried for what might have been.
The June 4, 1989, massacre was a horrifying spectacle that the Chinese government has sought to erase from national memory ever since. But, 30 years later, contemplating what might have been is more important than ever. In hindsight, Tiananmen Square serves as a continuing reminder about just how much China has defied, and continues to defy, the odds and predictions of experts. The fact is that generations of American policy makers, political scientists, and economists have gotten China wrong more often than they’ve gotten China right. In domestic politics, economic development, and foreign policy, China has charted a surprising path that flies in the face of professional prognostications, general theories about anything, and the experience of other nations.
Venezuela is in the midst of an economic, social and political crisis, said Harold Trinkunas, the deputy director of FSI’s Center for International Security and Cooperation and an expert on Latin American politics.
“Venezuela is a major oil-producing company, and it experienced a boom between 2000 and 2012,” Trinkunas told FSI Director Michael McFaul on the World Class podcast. “Up until then, Venezuela seemed to be doing pretty well.”
But things have changed since former President Hugo Chavez’s death in 2013. Once one of Latin America’s wealthiest nations, Venezuela’s economy has collapsed by more than 50 percent in recent years, Trinkunas said. Meanwhile, a large majority of its population is living in poverty, millions have fled the country, and the government — led by President Nicolás Maduro — has become increasingly authoritarian and unpopular among citizens.
During his first five years in office, Maduro’s government politicized the military and the oil industry, Trinkunas said, noting that oil production in Venezuela has declined from 3 million barrels per day 20 years ago to fewer than 1 million barrels per day in recent years. After Maduro was re-elected in 2018 amongst reports of coercion, fraud and electoral rigging, about 50 countries — including the United States and many members of the European Union — denounced his election.
“The fact that there are 50 countries [that oppose Maduro] is really quite unusual,” Trinkunas said. “And this is the United States and many of its allies — many western democracies are in this camp.”
Less than a year after the election, opposition leader Juan Guaidó invoked the country’s constitution to declare himself interim president. About three months later, on April 30, 2019, Guaidó called for an uprising against Maduro, but the response wasn’t what Guaidó had hoped for, Trinkunas said.
“Apparently there had been a process of negotiation in the weeks leading up to April 30, in which the armed forces, the Supreme Court, and other significant regime figures agreed to a transition plan which would ease Maduro out and call for new elections,” Trinkunas said. “But it looks like Juan Guaidó pulled the trigger too quickly — he claims the plot was discovered.”
Trinkunas sees three possible scenarios for Venezuela going forward: one in which Maduro is able to retain his power and the state of country remains relatively unchanged; another in which the government collapses and the country is able to transition into a democracy; or the Venezuelan government may collapse and things could take a turn for the worse, he said.
“Venezuela has experienced prolonged electricity blackouts in the last couple of months, and food distribution is very uncertain — things are breaking down,” he said. “There’s a real [possibility] that some of the organized crime organizations could break down the social order. It might look like a much more complicated situation.”
Related: Read a Q&A with Harold Trinkunas about Juan Guaidó’s claim to the Venezuelan presidency.
Two CDDRL honors students will present their theses at this week's CDDRL Research Seminar on Wednesday, June 5, from 12-1:30pm.
Sophia Pink's thesis, "Think like a Scientist: Interventions to Reduce Politically Motivated Reasoning" will receive the CDDRL Award for Outstanding Thesis 2019Image
About Sophia:
Hometown: Washington, DC
Major: Product Design
Thesis Advisor: Robb Willer
Thesis Title: Think like a Scientist: Interventions to Reduce Politically Motivated Reasoning
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? When we are faced with information about political issues, our ability to reason is easily hijacked by our biases. We often have a conclusion in mind and use the information to justify our pre-existing views. This is called “politically motivated reasoning.” If our society wants to continue to have the meaningful political discussions essential for a functioning democracy, we need tools to defend ourselves against these biases.
This thesis includes a thorough literature review of the research on motivated reasoning with hypotheses for interventions that may reduce motivated reasoning. It also tests an intervention to reduce politically motivated reasoning with a experimental study. Instead of blaming individuals, we need to design tools to equip people to analyze political information without biases getting in the way.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergraduate honors program? I was excited to learn from the cohort of amazing students. Working with students from different departments over the course of a year helped me produce stronger research and be a better colleague.
Future aspirations post-Stanford: I hope to use the tools of ethnographic research, behavioral science, and data science to design experiences that help people make better decisions and live more fulfilling lives.
Alex Trivella's Thesis,"Thwarting Electoral Revolution: The Communal State and Authoritarian Consolidation in Venezuela" will receive a Firestone Medal, given to the top 10% of all honors theses. Image
About Alex:
Hometown: Caracas, Venezuela
Major: History
Thesis Advisor: Beatriz Magaloni
Thesis Title: Thwarting Electoral Revolution: The Communal State and Authoritarian Consolidation in Venezuela
Why is this topic important to the field of democracy, development, and the rule of law? As Venezuela faces a new political era of single-party dictatorship, the future of the country remains uncertain. It is still unclear how the party will proceed in its consolidation of power and what institutions will remain relevant. Studying the evolution of Communal State structures exposes the political framework available to the Venezuelan government and may reveal a path to redemocratization.
What attracted you to the CDDRL undergraduate honors program? The CDDRL honors program provided me the opportunity to engage with some of the complex questions I had about the socioeconomic collapse of my country. I was also excited for the new perspectives available through the program's multidisciplinary focus.
Future aspirations post-Stanford: I would like to pursue a Master's in International Policy and possibly work in something relating to democratization. I also hope to help rebuild Venezuela in the future.
Reuben Hills Conference room
Encina Hall, 2nd floor East
As China and Russia attack free governments and push strongman rule, the U.S. has gone silent—and a new tide of authoritarianism is gathering, writes Larry Diamond. Read here.
Fighting to End Hunger at Home & Abroad: Ambassador Ertharin Cousin shares her journey & lessons learned
A Conversation in Global Health with Ertharin Cousin
FSI Payne Distinguished Lecturer | Former Executive Director of the World Food Programme | TIME's 100 Most Influential People
RSVP for conversation & lunch: www.tinyurl.com/
Professor Ertharin Cousin has been fighting to end global hunger for decades. As executive director of the World Food Programme from 2012 until 2017, she led the world’s largest humanitarian organization with 14,000 staff serving 80 million vulnerable people across 75 countries. As the US ambassador to the UN Agencies for Food and Agriculture, she served as the US representative for all food, agriculture, and nutrition related issues.
Prior to her global work, Cousin lead the domestic fight to end hunger. As chief operating officer at America’s Second Harvest (now Feeding America), she oversaw operations for a confederation of 200 food banks across America that served more than 50,000,000 meals per year.
Stanford School of Medicine Senior Communications Strategist Paul Costello will interview Professor Cousin about her experiences, unique pathway, and the way forward for ending the global hunger crisis.
Li Ka Shing Room 320
Two former U.S. ambassadors to Russia recently shared the stage at the Freeman Spogli Institute, where they discussed the Arab Spring, their mutual respect for former President Barack Obama, and of course, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
William Burns — the Russian ambassador from 2005 to 2008 — told Freeman Spogli Institute Director Michael McFaul — who was in the position from 2012 to 2014 — that Putin is a “combustible combination of grievance and ambition and insecurity all wrapped up together.”
Standing at about 5 feet and 6 inches tall, Putin is not the most physically intimidating person in the world, but he carries himself with self-assurance, Burns said.
“He told me, ‘You Americans need to listen more — you can’t just have everything your own way,’” Burns said of his first meeting with Putin. “That was vintage Putin…it was not subtle, it was defiantly charmless, but it was quite direct.”
Burns talked about his experience in the Foreign Service, which began at the height of the Cold War in the early ‘80s. Because most of his research in graduate school focused on the Middle East, Burns said he spent two years perfecting the Russian language at the beginning of his career.
“You can’t operate in a place like Russia unless you speak the language well,” Burns said. “Moscow in those days was one of the biggest embassies we had in the world. As creepy as the relationship can be, Russia is still a place that matters.”
Burns said that while former President George H.W. Bush, his Secretary of State James Baker, and his National Security Advisor Brent Scowcroft made their share of mistakes during Bush’s tenure in office, the former president and his team deserve a lot of credit for what they accomplished in Russia and the Middle East.
“In hindsight, Germany’s reunification within less than a year after the end of the Cold War and the fall of the Berlin Wall — and ensuring that the reunification of Germany would remain within NATO — was not a small achievement,” he said. “That took real skill, and it was not inevitable.”
When asked by McFaul whether the U.S. should have been more aggressive in pushing the burgeoning Russian leaders in a more democratic direction after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Burns said he thinks Russia would have been resistant to an “intrusive” American role in their economy at that time.
“Russians — at the end of the Cold War, and the disintegration of the Soviet Union — had suffered a real crisis in their own confidence,” he said. “I’ve never really bought the argument that a Marshall Plan-scale set of assistance for Russia or the former soviet states in that period would have been that productive. Russia’s future after the end of communism was something that only Russia could shape in the end.”
Shifting focus to the past decade, Burns said that he “always had huge respect for President Obama’s long game in the Middle East,” adding that he thought the former president was unfairly criticized for wanting to disengage the U.S. from the Middle East during his time in office.
“The Arab revolts unfolding in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Syria were on a scale and at a pace which would have been hard for any president to adapt to,” Burns said. “On the surface they looked very similar, but they were unfolding in different societies, in different ways … a concern with which I deeply sympathized was not getting dragged into another big military intervention in the Middle East.”
Zin Mar Aung
Burmese MP and political activist
Vladimir Kara-Murza
Russian journalist and anti-corruption crusader
Cara McCormick
CEO, Chamberlain Project, Co-founder/Co-leader of The
Committee for Ranked Choice Voting in Maine
*Reception to follow
Bechtel Conference Center
Encina Hall
616 Serra Mall
Stanford, CA 94305
We are proud to announce our next year's cohort of CDDRL Honors Program students! We selected a diverse group of undergraduate majors for the program who will be writing their senior theses on a subject touching upon DDRL with a global impact. Students will work to complete their thesis under the guidance and consultation of CDDRL faculty, but may have a primary thesis advisor from their own department. Upon fulfilling individual department course requirements and completing the honors program, the student will graduate in his/her major with a certificate of honors in Democracy, Development, and Rule of Law.
Read their bios here.
