About the topic: What could queueing theory, the science of customer flows and delays in service systems, possibly offer towards understanding and countering terrorism? In terror queue models, newly hatched terror plots correspond to newly arriving customers, the number of ongoing terror plots corresponds to the queue of customers waiting to receive service, undercover agents or informants correspond to service providers, customer service is initiated when a terror plot is detected, and service is completed when the plot is interdicted. Not all plots are interdicted; successful terror attacks correspond to customers who abandon the queue without receiving service! Building upon these ideas, we will focus our attention upon a simple observation: other things being equal, the number of ongoing terror plots increases with the duration of time from plot initiation until execution or interdiction (whichever comes first), yet no estimate of the probability distribution governing terror plot duration has appeared in the open literature. Starting with a review of US terrorism-related indictments, lower and upper bounds for the initiation date of 30 distinct Jihadi plots were identified in addition to the date of arrest or an attempted/actual terror act. Accounting for the censoring and truncation effects inherent with these data; the estimated mean duration equals 9 months, while 95% of all plots are estimated to fall between 1 and 25 months. These estimates suggest that in the United States, on average approximately three ongoing Jihadi terror plots have been active at any point in time since 9/11/2001.

About the Speaker: Edward H. Kaplan is the William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Management Sciences, Professor of Public Health, and Professor of Engineering at Yale University’s School of Management who is currently on sabbatical as Distinguished Visiting Professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business. The author of more than 125 research articles, Kaplan received both the Lanchester Prize and the Edelman Award, two top honors in the operations research field, among many other awards. An elected member of the National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine of the US National Academies, Kaplan’s current research focuses on the application of operations research to problems in counterterrorism and homeland security. 

In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

Kazuma Fukai, "Current Situation of Shale Gas Revolution and its Impact on the U.S. and Japan"

Shale gas is called a “game changer”. According to the Energy Information Administration, shale gas will be the major source of incremental U.S. natural gas supply, increasing its share of production from 23% in 2010 to 49% in 2035. President Obama expressed even as the U.S. develops next generation energy technologies, the U.S will continue to rely on oil and gas. Due to the shale gas boom, the current price of natural gas (U.S. Henry Hub) is declining, about 1/8 of the peak price in 2005. Given the importance of environmental issues and efficiency, combined with depressed natural gas prices, the demand for natural gas in the power sector will grow rapidly. In Japan, the unprecedented nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant affected energy policy dramatically. While the future of nuclear power in Japan is still unclear, natural gas power plants would be one of the most important energy resources to compensate for the loss of nuclear power plants as a realistic and reliable short and middle term approach. If the abundance of natural gas in the U.S. flows to Japan, it would contribute to a choice of supplier and different price formula for Japan. Fukai will present information based on the current state of shale drilling in the U.S., environmental issues, and interviews with many key experts and professors in shale gas as well as his experience at Kansai Electric Power Company.

Katsunori Hirano, "Learning from Sustainable Energy Financing Models Operating in the U.S. Market:  A Study for Japan's Clean and Safe Energy Future after Fukushima"

The Fukushima meltdown, which followed a devastating natural disaster in March 2011, presented the Japanese citizenry clear evidence that the way to meet their energy needs had not been sustainable. They have found the value of improving their resilience and security by their own initiative, intelligence, and foresight. The growth in the energy efficiency and renewable energy market is the defining feature of Japan’s energy future.

A substantial number of financing models are being implemented to help encourage investment in energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy deployments in the United States. In his research, Hirano tries to identify the best model operating in the U.S. market to provide financing opportunities for sustainable energy.  The local authorities in Japan can swiftly and flexibly apply this model for local households and businesses in their jurisdiction.

Yuji Kamimai, "A New Business Model for the Media Industry"

For a long time, it has been said that media is the mirror of the times we live in.  In his research, Kamimai tries to understand the ascent of and vast changes of media through a historical backdrop to help explain and recognize new service and technological innovation in the Silicon Valley.  Additionally, he examines some trends other than media that could help provide a deeper understanding.  From the rise of media and the latest IT business model, Kamimai learns what is important for the media to do, and explains what the next action steps are.  

Masami Miyashita, "A Study about the Ecosystem that Creates and Develops Global Start-ups"

Innovation is critical to economic growth, and entrepreneurship and startups are pivotal ingredients of innovation. After Japan’s economic bubble bursting in 1990, there was much talk about the lack of entrepreneurship in Japan as a driver of creative destruction and economic revival. The “Silicon Valley model” of entrepreneurship was heavily studied. Beginning in the late 1990s, the Japanese government rapidly developed institutional and social frameworks for startups in Japan. In the early 2000s, however, few Japanese startups were global in scale, and the presence in Silicon Valley of Japanese entrepreneurs and startup were still very limited. After the first decade of the 21st century, there are preliminary indications of a new wave of startups by Japanese entrepreneurs making inroads in Silicon Valley. Compared to other groups, such as Chinese or Indians, the number of Japanese entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley still remains miniscule. However, for the Japanese entrepreneurs to take advantage of the Silicon Valley entrepreneurial and innovation opportunities, lessons from the experiences and challenged faced by Japanese based in Silicon Valley are important.  In his research, Miyashita provides some of the key factors that are feeding this new wave of startups.

In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

Kazuma Fukai, "Current Situation of Shale Gas Revolution and its Impact on the U.S. and Japan"

Shale gas is called a “game changer”. According to the Energy Information Administration, shale gas will be the major source of incremental U.S. natural gas supply, increasing its share of production from 23% in 2010 to 49% in 2035. President Obama expressed even as the U.S. develops next generation energy technologies, the U.S will continue to rely on oil and gas. Due to the shale gas boom, the current price of natural gas (U.S. Henry Hub) is declining, about 1/8 of the peak price in 2005. Given the importance of environmental issues and efficiency, combined with depressed natural gas prices, the demand for natural gas in the power sector will grow rapidly. In Japan, the unprecedented nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant affected energy policy dramatically. While the future of nuclear power in Japan is still unclear, natural gas power plants would be one of the most important energy resources to compensate for the loss of nuclear power plants as a realistic and reliable short and middle term approach. If the abundance of natural gas in the U.S. flows to Japan, it would contribute to a choice of supplier and different price formula for Japan. Fukai will present information based on the current state of shale drilling in the U.S., environmental issues, and interviews with many key experts and professors in shale gas as well as his experience at Kansai Electric Power Company.

Katsunori Hirano, "Learning from Sustainable Energy Financing Models Operating in the U.S. Market:  A Sutdy for Japan's Clean and Safe Energy Future after Fukushima"

The Fukushima meltdown, which followed a devastating natural disaster in March 2011, presented the Japanese citizenry clear evidence that the way to meet their energy needs had not been sustainable. They have found the value of improving their resilience and security by their own initiative, intelligence, and foresight. The growth in the energy efficiency and renewable energy market is the defining feature of Japan’s energy future.

A substantial number of financing models are being implemented to help encourage investment in energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy deployments in the United States. In his research, Hirano tries to identify the best model operating in the U.S. market to provide financing opportunities for sustainable energy.  The local authorities in Japan can swiftly and flexibly apply this model for local households and businesses in their jurisdiction.

Yuji Kamimai, "A New Business Model for the Media Industry"

For a long time, it has been said that media is the mirror of the times we live in.  In his research, Kamimai tries to understand the ascent of and vast changes of media through a historical backdrop to help explain and recognize new service and technological innovation in the Silicon Valley.  Additionally, he examines some trends other than media that could help provide a deeper understanding.  From the rise of media and the latest IT business model, Kamimai learns what is important for the media to do, and explains what the next action steps are.

Masami Miyashita, "A Study about the Ecosystem that Creates and Develops Global Start-ups"

Innovation is critical to economic growth, and entrepreneurship and startups are pivotal ingredients of innovation. After Japan’s economic bubble bursting in 1990, there was much talk about the lack of entrepreneurship in Japan as a driver of creative destruction and economic revival. The “Silicon Valley model” of entrepreneurship was heavily studied. Beginning in the late 1990s, the Japanese government rapidly developed institutional and social frameworks for startups in Japan. In the early 2000s, however, few Japanese startups were global in scale, and the presence in Silicon Valley of Japanese entrepreneurs and startup were still very limited. After the first decade of the 21st century, there are preliminary indications of a new wave of startups by Japanese entrepreneurs making inroads in Silicon Valley. Compared to other groups, such as Chinese or Indians, the number of Japanese entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley still remains miniscule. However, for the Japanese entrepreneurs to take advantage of the Silicon Valley entrepreneurial and innovation opportunities, lessons from the experiences and challenged faced by Japanese based in Silicon Valley are important.  In his research, Miyashita provides some of the key factors that are feeding this new wave of startups.

Katharina Zellweger will share her insights into North Korea based on her experience as a development and humanitarian aid worker and a resident of Pyongyang. Closely interacting with North Koreans daily, Zellweger lived in Pyongyang for five years as the North Korea country director for the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC). She is a Swiss national with over 30 years of experience in humanitarian work from an Asian base. Her primary engagement has been with China and North Korea.

While heading the SDC program in Pyongyang, Zellweger focused on sustainable agricultural production to address food security issues, income generation to improve people's livelihoods, and capacity development to contribute to individual and institutional learning.

Before joining SDC, Zellweger worked nearly 30 years at the Caritas Internationalis office in Hong Kong, where she pioneered the organization's involvement in China and North Korea. In recognition of her work in North Korea, the Vatican made Zellweger a Dame of St. Gregory the Great in 2006. 

Zellweger holds a master's degree in international administration from the School of International Training in Brattleboro, Vermont, and a Swiss diploma in trade, commerce, and business administration. She also apprenticed with Switzerland’s national agricultural management program.

Zellweger joined the Korean Studies Program as the 2011—12 Pantech Fellow to conduct research on the transformation, especially social and economic change, of North Korea and its society.

Abstract:  

The "spirit of democracy" has recently been undermined in several African countries as authoritarian methods have been the preferred approach. In countries such as Kenya, Zimbabwe, Cote d'Ivoire, Niger and Gabon political change has come through the following means; military interventions ousting former presidents clinging to power after their terms; violently repressed popular unrests leading to power-sharing solutions, or former presidents being replaced by their sons. In few countries such as Guinea, free elections were organized after several decades of dictatorship.   

In this seminar, CDDRL Post-Doctoral Fellow Landry Signé will examine what makes certain countries adopt and consolidate liberal or electoral democracies when others stay authoritarian - whether competitive, hegemonic or politically closed. Signé will analyze the transformations of political regimes and democratization in the 48 Sub-Saharan African countries over the two last decades contrasting various political trajectories, comparing results between successful and failed countries, and exploring the conditions that create, maintain and sustain democracies. 

Speaker Bio:  

Landry Signé is a recipient of the 2011-2013 Banting Postdoctoral Fellowship Award from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada hosted by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University. He is working on a project entitled “The Efficiency of the Political Responses to the Global Financial and Economic Crisis in Africa: Does the Political Regime and Economic Structure Matter?”. He completed his PhD in Political Science (2010), with the Award of Excellence, at the University of Montreal, and has been bestowed the Award for Best International PhD Dissertation of 2011 by the Center for International Studies and Research (CÉRIUM). His dissertation is entitled “Political Innovation: The Role of the International, Regional and National Actors in the Economic Development of Africa”. 

Prior to joining the CDDRL, Dr. Signé was a visiting scholar at the Stanford Center on African Studies, lecturer on Emerging African Markets: Strategies, Investments and Government Affairs at the Stanford Continuing Studies, founding president of a Canadian corporation specialized in public affairs and business development, part-time professor and lecturer in political science at Ottawa University and the University of Montreal, administrator at the United Nations Association of Canada-Greater Montréal, and president of the Political Commission of Montreal-CJ. He has worked or interned at the United Nations Department of Political Affairs, the Senate of France, the National Assembly of Cameroon, and the French Distributor, Casino Group. He studied Political Science, International Relations, Communication and Business at the University of Montreal, Lyon 3 University, Sciences Po Paris, Sandar Institute, Stanford Continuing Studies, and McGill University.

Abstract:

We present a new framework for conceptualizing and assessing the extent to which countries adhere to the rule of law in practice. This framework constitutes the backbone of the WJP Rule of Law Index^® and is organized around nine basic concepts or factors: limited government powers; absence of corruption; order and security; fundamental rights; open government; effective regulatory enforcement; access to civil justice; effective criminal justice; and informal justice. These factors are further disaggregated into 52 sub-factors. We estimate numerical scores of these factors and sub-factors for a group of 66 countries and jurisdictions. These estimates are built from two novel data sources in each country: (1) a general population poll; and (2) qualified respondents’ questionnaires. All in all, the data contain more than 400 variables drawn from the assessments of over 66,000 people and 2,000 local experts. Our presentation will conclude with an overview of some highlights from Index data findings, as well as examples of ways in which the data have been applied in different contexts.

The World Justice Project (WJP) is an independent, non-profit organization that works to advance the rule of law for the development of communities of opportunity and equity worldwide. The WJP’s multinational and multidisciplinary efforts are aimed at: government reforms; development of practical programs on the ground in support of the rule of law; and increased awareness about the concept and impact of the rule of law. The Project has three complementary programs: Research and Scholarship, the World Justice Project Rule of Law Index, and mainstreaming practical on-the-ground programs to strengthen the rule of law.

Speaker Bio: 

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Speaker Bio: 

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Over the last hundred years, the cigarette has become a pillar of consumer life in China and many parts of the world. In 2010, the Chinese tobacco industry produced over two trillion cigarettes, generating over U.S. $90 billion in taxes and profits. Over 300 million Chinese citizens now use cigarettes every day, and tobacco kills 90 times more people each year than HIV/AIDS in China.

How has the cigarette become so integrated into the fabric of everyday life across the People’s Republic of China?

The importance of answering this question is unmistakable, but very little historical research and writing has examined China’s cigarette industry from the mid-20th century to the present. To get to the heart of this question, historians, health policy specialists, sociologists, anthropologists, business scholars, and other experts will meet Mar. 26 and 27 at the new Stanford Center at Peking University for a conference organized by the Asia Health Policy Program. They will examine connections intricately woven over the past 60 years between marketing and cigarette gifting, production and consumer demand, government policy and economic profit, and many other dimensions of China’s cigarette culture.