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Post-9/11, the U.S. government instituted the U.S. Visitor and Immigrant Status Indicator Technology (US-VISIT) Program, which compares two index fingerprints from every foreign visitor entering the U.S. against a watchlist of fingerprints from several million criminals and suspected terrorists. In the first part of this talk, we develop a new probabilistic model for fingerprint matching that allows for population heterogeneity in fingerprint image quality, calibrate this model using data from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), and embed the model into a Stackelberg game, in which the U.S. government chooses an optimal biometric strategy to maximize the detection probability subject to a constraint on the mean biometric processing time per legal visitor, and then the terrorist chooses his fingerprint image quality to minimize his detection probability. We predict that switching from a two-finger system to a ten-finger system would increase the detection probability in this game from 0.526 to 0.949. This work was the basis of Congressional testimony last fall, and the Department of Homeland Security recently announced that they are switching from a two-finger system to a ten-finger system. In the second part of this talk, we use new data from Cogent (the biometrics vendor for the U.S. Visit Program) to derive a two-stage, two-finger biometric strategy that works as well as a one-stage, ten-finger strategy. The second stage of this two-stage strategy employs texture matching rather than the traditional minutiae matching.

Manas Baveja is a doctoral candidate in the Institute for Computational and Mathematical Engineering at Stanford University and a CISAC science fellow. His doctoral research is focused on quantitative modeling of homeland security projects.

Lawrence Wein is the Paul E. Holden Professor of Management Science at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, and an affiliated faculty member at CISAC.

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Manas Baveja Speaker

Graduate School of Business
Stanford University
Stanford, CA 94305-5015

(650) 724-1676 (650) 725-0468
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Jeffrey S. Skoll Professor of Management Science
CISAC Affiliated Faculty Member
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Lawrence Wein is the Jeffrey S. Skoll Professor of Management Science at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, and an affiliated faculty member at CISAC. After getting a PhD in Operations Research from Stanford University in 1988, he spent 14 years at the Sloan School of Management at MIT, where he was the DEC Leaders for Manufacturing Professor of Management Science. His research interests include mathematical models in operations management, medicine and biology.

Since 2001, he has analyzed a variety of homeland security problems. His homeland security work includes four papers in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, on an emergency response to a smallpox attack, an emergency response to an anthrax attack, a biometric analysis of the US-VISIT Program, and an analysis of a bioterror attack on the milk supply. He has also published the Washington Post op-ed "Unready for Anthrax" (2003) and the New York Times op-ed "Got Toxic Milk?", and has written papers on port security, indoor remediation after an anthrax attack, and the detention and removal of illegal aliens.

For his homeland security research, Wein has received several awards from the International Federation of Operations Research and Management Science (INFORMS), including the Koopman Prize for the best paper in military operations research, the INFORMS Expository Writing Award, the INFORMS President’s Award for contributions to society, the Philip McCord Morse Lectureship, the Frederick W. Lanchester Prize for best research publication, and the George E. Kimball Medal. He was Editor-in-Chief of Operations Research from 2000 to 2005, and was elected to the National Academy of Engineering in 2009.   

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Dr. Shavit Matias is Deputy Attorney General of Israel, in charge of international issues. In that capacity she is involved, among other things, in shaping Israel's policy on Middle East, Palestinian, and international issues, and works closely with the Israeli National Security Council and the Israeli Cabinet Ministers on those issues. Dr. Matias, and others in her department, participate in the negotiations and discussions with the Palestinians and the International Community, most currently with respect to issues relating to the Disengagement from Gaza process and its aftermath. Prior to being nominated Deputy Attorney General, Dr. Matias was a partner at the leading Israeli law firm of Yigal Arnon, where she was involved in international business transactions, had practiced with the law firm of Shearman and Sterling, and was an adjunct Professor at Georgetown University Law Center and at the Hebrew University Faculty of Law. Dr. Matias received her LL.B. from Tel-Aviv University, her LL.M. from Georgetown University and her Doctorate in international law from George Washington University. Dr. Matias represents the State of Israel in various international committees and international institutions, and has published on international law and policy issues. She is currently a Distinguished Visiting Fellow at the Hoover Institution.

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Shavit Matias Deputy Attorney General of Israel/ Distinguished Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution Speaker
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Dr. Liu first offered his view on the current state of the software industry's development and in particular software outsourcing to China. Software prices and margins continue to drop. Coupled with this reality is Liu's view that "only 10-15% of software development is truly innovative and therefore suitable to be developed in Silicon Valley". As software development platforms and communication technologies, especially the Internet, become ubiquitous and affordable, distributed software development is becoming the rule.

China's challenges and advantages in software outsourcing

Compared to India, the leader in software outsourcing, China has its own distinct challenges. Chinese software companies have almost no U.S. customers for a number of reasons: language barriers, different working styles, customers' concern for software piracy, and the lack of experienced programmers and technical managers in China. Yet, China also has its advantages. Not only does it have a rapidly expanding domestic software market, but it also has a large pool of fresh engineering talent. "The key, therefore," asserted Dr. Liu, "lies in someone creating the right environment to train and build a local team to be able to develop and deliver world-class software products."

Augmentum's software development goals

This is what Augmentum has set out to accomplish. "...[W]e want to build a world-class, distributed development team for software product development... like the ODM model in the PC world..." declared Dr. Liu. Based on this vision, Augmentum's strategy hinges on its insistence to develop software for top US customers, such as Motorola, Business Objects, and PalmSource--and to rely primarily on local Chinese engineers. Explained Liu: "We want to make sure that the center of most of the people of that team is going to be in China, even though the locomotive, the teachers, is in the U.S., because that's where the leadership is in the software product development world."

Drawing on decades of experience developing top software teams at IBM and other companies, Dr. Liu detailed his company's efforts to attract the brightest local engineers and train them to be even better. He explained, "Culture and team is the true differentiation of Augmentum.... The real...challenge is to build the right culture with the right core team." The company insists on having no expatriates in their China operations but promoting close interaction between experienced mentors in the U.S. and the young teams in China, sometimes using some creative approaches for recruitment and training. For example, Augmentum puts all of its new hires under "a stress test" after hiring and proactively maintains an "upfront churn of at least 30%" in the first three-month period." Their end goal: "a world-class software development team that can bridge the East and the West but still has a cost structure comparable to local companies."

Liu's focus for the future

Despite experienced leadership, ties to leading U.S. companies, and strong young software teams, Augmentum faces real challenges. Liu acknowledged skeptics who question the ability to build a world-class team through working on the "crumbs of companies" of "projects they don't want to work on themselves." Nevertheless, he is confident in the trajectory of Augmentum's future growth, as the company is expecting to double its employees every year for the coming few years. In addition, Dr. Liu's vision includes a landscape beyond Augmentum. "I have a very simple focus. I want to train a lot of world-class software developers in China to serve the world. Many of them will not be working for Augmentum. It is fine...I want to bring my experience to there to make it happen. And the best vehicle to do that at this moment and time, the wave [that] I want to jump on is outsourcing, because it is growing the fastest."

Biography of Leonard Liu

Leonard Liu has spent 30 years in the systems industry, with a track record of developing innovative computing technologies into successful businesses. Most recently, he served as president of ASE Group, a leading provider of IC test and packaging services, having held roles as Chairman and CEO of Walker Interactive Systems, COO of Cadence Design Systems, and President of Acer Group. He was an early champion of outsourcing to India and China at Cadence and Walker. Dr. Liu began his career at IBM where he was responsible for the creation and implementation of SQL and the management of CICS, SNA and AIX, eventually overseeing the worldwide Database and Language lines-of-business. He received his undergraduate degree from Taiwan University and his Ph.D. from Princeton University.

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Focus on Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Greater China

SPRIE is a multidisciplinary research program at Stanford University that focuses on innovation and entrepreneurship in leading high technology regions in the United States and Asia. SPRIE has an active community of scholars at Stanford as well as research affiliates in the United States, Mainland China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Singapore, and India. During 2005-2006, SPRIE is expanding a new initiative on the rise of leading high technology regions in Greater China and their impact on the global knowledge economy. Specific research topics include globalization of R&D, executive leadership, university-industry linkages, venture capital industry development and leading high technology clusters in Greater China. In addition, industries of ongoing research at SPRIE include semiconductors, computers, telecommunications, and software.

SPRIE Graduate Research Fellows: Research Assistantships & Support for International Field Research

As part of its new initiative on innovation and entrepreneurship in Greater China, SPRIE will select outstanding Stanford students as SPRIE Graduate Research Scholars. SPRIE Graduate Research Scholars will work with SPRIE faculty and senior researchers at Stanford for two (or more) academic quarters in 2005-2006 to gather and analyze data, conduct interviews in Silicon Valley, contribute to publications, and advance progress on the overall project agenda. During summer 2006, they will conduct SPRIE field research through interviews or surveys with business and government leaders in Beijing, Shanghai, or Hsinchu. As part of SPRIE's international research team, they will have the opportunity to interact closely with project leaders and visiting scholars at Stanford as well as partners in Asia, such as the Ministry of Science and Technology, Tsinghua University, or Zhongguancun Science Park in Mainland China or the Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) in Taiwan. They will also participate in SPRIE's public and invitation-only seminars and workshops with academic, business, and government leaders. The financial award will include RA support at 15-20 hours/week (or equivalent) plus summer stipend to cover travel, living expenses, and research.

How To Apply (limited to current Stanford graduate students)

Successful candidates will have demonstrated a track record of superior analytical ability, strong oral and written communication skills (including full fluency in English and Chinese), knowledge of high technology and entrepreneurship, high motivation, and willingness to be part of a dynamic international research team.

Applicants should submit:

  1. A brief statement (not to exceed two single-spaced pages), which describes the candidate's interests and skills,
  2. a curriculum vitae
  3. contact information for 2 references, preferably recent professors, advisors, or employers

Send applications to:

SPRIE
Encina Hall - East 301
Stanford University 94305-6055

or by email to George Krompacky. Questions? Please contact George Krompacky, Program Coordinator, by email or call 650.725.1885

Deadline for receipt of all materials: December 30, 2005

Applicants will be notified of decisions in January 2006

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The Stanford Project on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship (SPRIE) is a multidisciplinary research program of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University that focuses on innovation and entrepreneurship in leading high technology regions in the United States and Asia. SPRIE has an active community of scholars at Stanford as well as research affiliates in the United States, China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, Singapore, and India.

Fellowship Program

As part of its initiative on Greater China, SPRIE will select two outstanding post-docs or young scholars as SPRIE Fellows at Stanford for the academic year 2006-2007 for research and writing on Greater China and its role in the global knowledge economy. The primary focus of the program is the intersection of innovation and entrepreneurship and underlying contemporary political, economic, technological and/or business factors in Greater China (including Taiwan, Mainland China, Singapore). Topics of particular interest include, but are not limited to, globalization of R&D, executive leadership, university-industry linkages, venture capital industry development and leading high technology clusters in Greater China. In addition, industries of ongoing research at SPRIE include semiconductors, computers, telecommunications, and software.

SPRIE Fellows at Stanford will be expected to be in residence for at least three academic quarters, beginning the fall quarter of 2006. Fellows take part in Center activities, including research forums, seminars and workshops throughout the academic year, and are required to present their research findings in SPRIE seminars. They will also participate as members of SPRIE's team in its public and invitation-only seminars and workshops with academic, business and government leaders. Fellows will also participate in the publication programs of SPRIE and Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center. The Fellowship carries a stipend of $40,000.

How to Apply

Applicants should submit:

1) A statement of purpose not to exceed five single-spaced pages which describes the research and writing to be undertaken during the fellowship period, as well as the projected products(s) that will be published;

2) a curriculum vitae (with research ability in Chinese preferred); and

3) 2 letters of recommendation from faculty advisors or other scholars. All applicants must have Ph.D. degrees conferred by August 30, 2006.

Address all applications to:

Stanford Project on Regions of Innovation and Entrepreneurship,

Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center,

Encina Hall - East 301,

Stanford University

Stanford, CA 94305-6055

Questions? Please contact George Krompacky, Program Coordinator

Deadline for receipt of all materials: January 13, 2006

Applicants will be notified of decisions in March 2006

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Realpolitik pessimists, power transition theorists, and others see China's rise as inherently destabilizing. However, China has already been growing rapidly for almost three decades, and there is little evidence that the region is devolving into balancing, nor that China's rise is causing undue alarm in the region. China's expected emergence as the most powerful state in East Asia has been accompanied with more stability than pessimists believed because hierarchy, not balancing, is emerging in East Asia. Dr. Kang explains the relationships between dominant and secondary states in a hierarchic system. Furthermore, on the one hand, China has provided credible information about its capabilities and intentions to its neighbors. On the other hand, East Asian states actually believe China's claims, and hence do not fear -- and instead seek to benefit from - China's rise. This shared understanding about China's preferences and limited aims short-circuits the security dilemma.

David Kang has scholarly interests in both business-government relations and international relations, with a focus on Asia. His book Crony Capitalism: Corruption and Development in South Korea and the Philippines (Cambridge University Press, 2002), was named by Choice as a 2003 Outstanding Academic Title. He is also author of Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies, co-authored with Victor Cha (Columbia University Press, 2003). Kang is a Stanford alumnus (B.A. 1988, anthropology and international relations) and holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California at Berkeley.

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David Kang Visiting Professor, Shorenstein APARC and Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College Speaker
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Pre-doctoral Fellow 2005 - 2006

Gideon Maltz is studying the role of presidential term limits in advancing democracy, strategies for more effectively enforcing term limits, and the question of term limits in the context of parliamentary systems. Gideon has worked as a Junior Fellow in the Democracy & Rule of Law program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and as a Business Analyst at McKinsey & Company. He has also spent time working on comparative constitutionalism as a part-time consultant at the National Endowment for Democracy, on Sudan and Zimbabwe at the International Crisis Group, and on international trade at the law firm of Hogan & Hartson.

Gideon graduated with a B.A. in Ethics, Politics & Economics from Yale and is currently a third-year student at Stanford Law School. He is also a graduate fellow at the Stanford Center for International Conflict and Negotiation (SCICN).

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The Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center is a premier research center at Stanford University dedicated to interdisciplinary research on key foreign relations, government, political economy, business, and social issues. The Center seeks applicants for the newly created position of Associate Director of Research.

Reporting to the Center's director, the Associate Director for Research is responsible for overall management of the Center's research programs by designing and facilitating research projects, and coordinating faculty participation. The person who occupies this position is also expected to conduct his/her own scholarly research and to participate actively in Center research projects as a researcher, to mentor various Center fellows, and to oversee the Center's research publication program. Working with the Director, this position will identify and pursue grant funding opportunities.

The ideal candidate will possess graduate level research skills and advanced knowledge of contemporary U.S.-Asian issues, with particular emphasis on Northeast Asia; management experience in organizing and executing the administration and operation of complex research projects with multiple disciplines and deadlines; strong interpersonal and writing skills; and the ability to work under pressure, both independently and as a team member. Required minimum of five years relevant experience and a PhD or equivalent knowledge and skills in the relevant fields of political science, sociology, international relations, public policy, economics, or related fields of social science. Compensation will be commensurate with experience, within the Stanford classification range.

Stanford University is committed to equal opportunity through affirmative action in employment and we are especially eager to identify minority persons and women with appropriate qualifications.

Please send a cover letter and CV to:

Shiho Harada Barbir, Associate Director

Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center

Encina Hall E301

Stanford, CA 94304

The deadline for applications is February 28, 2006.

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China's software industry is at an inflexion point. For the past decade, China has been in the shadow of India's spectacular success in the IT outsourcing industry. While changes are underway, many challenges remain. However, it is possible to build software development teams in China, collaborating with teams in the United States, to be as good as software development teams anywhere in the world.

Dr. Liu will discuss his experience as Chairman and CEO of Augmentum, a value-added software development services company that has grown in two years to more than 450 people worldwide, 90% of them at Augmentum's development facility in Shanghai. Sixty percent of Augmentum's work is high-value added such as total products and solutions, from architecture to system integration test. All their customers are in North America -- many of them leaders in their respective industries.

Leonard Liu has spent 30 years in the systems industry, with a track record of developing innovative computing technologies into successful businesses. Most recently, he served as president of ASE Group, a leading provider of IC test and packaging services, having held roles as Chairman and CEO of Walker Interactive Systems, COO of Cadence Design Systems, and President of Acer Group. He was an early champion of outsourcing to India and China at Cadence and Walker. Dr. Liu began his career at IBM where he was responsible for the creation and implementation of SQL and the management of CICS, SNA and AIX, eventually overseeing the worldwide Database and Language lines-of-business. He received his undergraduate degree from Taiwan University and his Ph.D. from Princeton University.

Part of SPRIE's Greater China and the Globalization of R&D seminar series

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Leonard Liu Chairman and CEO, Augmentum, former executive at Cadence, Acer Group & IBM Speaker
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Engineering as a profession in the United States and other developed nations may soon face a crisis. As a result of sophisticated telecommunications and the digitization of engineering work processes, increasing portions of engineering work can be done without close proximity to particular persons, places, or other processes. In principle at least, this work can be done anywhere in the world that has access to (1) global telecommunications networks and requisite software packages and (2) adequately trained personnel. Undergraduate engineering students in relatively advanced developing nations, such as India and China, follow a curriculum roughly comparable to the one taught in developed nations. Thus, even as barriers to performing conventional engineering work remotely are eroding, a global pool of conventionally trained engineers is growing. This means that U.S. engineers are now in global competition with engineers in developing nations whose wages are 40 to 80 percent lower than ours.

In this paper, our discussion is limited to work that is relocated but still services markets in developed countries (rather than work done to meet the needs of local markets in developing countries). Offshoring of this work can not only directly replace existing workers, but can also capture jobs that would have been added to the U.S. economy, especially for fast-growing entrepreneurial ventures that must lower cash expenditures and speed up product development. Recent examples include Silicon Valley high-technology start-up companies that establish offshore subsidiaries very early in their life cycles. In these cases, offshoring does not reflect direct job displacement but redirects job growth to lower cost developing nations, at the same time making the start-up more competitive.

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The Bridge: Linking Engineering and Society
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Rafiq Dossani
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