International Development

FSI researchers consider international development from a variety of angles. They analyze ideas such as how public action and good governance are cornerstones of economic prosperity in Mexico and how investments in high school education will improve China’s economy.

They are looking at novel technological interventions to improve rural livelihoods, like the development implications of solar power-generated crop growing in Northern Benin.

FSI academics also assess which political processes yield better access to public services, particularly in developing countries. With a focus on health care, researchers have studied the political incentives to embrace UNICEF’s child survival efforts and how a well-run anti-alcohol policy in Russia affected mortality rates.

FSI’s work on international development also includes training the next generation of leaders through pre- and post-doctoral fellowships as well as the Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program.

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Seminar Recording: https://youtu.be/ZVHEqY1_3w8

 

Abstract: Before the CCP came to power, China lay broken. Today it is a force on the global stage, but its leaders remain haunted by the past. Sulmaan Khan will tell the story of the grand strategies pursued by China’s paramount leaders: the shrewd, dangerous Mao Zedong, who made the country whole and kept it so; the caustic, impatient Deng Xiaoping who dragged the country into the modern world; Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao who served as cautious custodians of Deng’s legacy; and Xi Jinping who combines assertiveness with insecurity. For all their considerable costs, China’s grand strategies have been largely successful. But whether or not they can meet the challenges of the twenty-first century remains to be seen.   

 

Speaker's Biography:

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Sulmaan Wasif Khan teaches international history and Chinese foreign relations at the Fletcher School, Tufts University, where he also directs the Water and Oceans Program at the Center for International Environment and Resource Policy. He is the author of Haunted by Chaos: China’s Grand Strategy from Mao Zedong to Xi Jinping (Harvard University Press: 2018), which was named a top book of 2018 by The American Interest, and Muslim, Trader, Nomad, Spy: China’s Cold War and the People of the Tibetan Borderlands (University of North Carolina Press: 2015). He has written for The Economist, Foreign Affairs, The American Interest, and YaleEnvironment360, among others, on topics ranging from Burmese Muslims to dolphin migration through the Bosphorus. He received his Ph.D. in History from Yale University in 2012.  

 

Sulmaan Khan Assistant Professor of International History and Chinese Foreign Relations Tufts University
Seminars
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Bureaucrats become powerful when they stage emotionally calibrated performances as “servants” before state principals, earn their trust, and carve out space for action through “whispering,” “propagating,” cultivating patrons, and building coalitions behind the scenes and on the sidelines of official interaction. These servant performances involve what sociologist Arlie Hochschild calls “emotional labor,” that is, the management of feelings when fulfilling the requirements of a job. Prof. Nair will develop a theory of emotional labor in international bureaucracies that explains why bureaucrats perform such work and how, if skilfully done, it can empower them. He will test the theory with an ethnography of the Secretariat of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Jakarta—a “hard” case that does not fit prevailing theorizations of bureaucratic power. Prof. Nair will also show how his theory can be applied to other, Euro-American bureaucracies.

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Deepak Nair researches the everyday practices and performances that produce international relations. His writings include ASEAN-related articles in journals such as International Political Sociology on topics that include golf, sociability, and diplomacy; on the practices of face-saving in diplomacy in the European Journal of International Relations; and on institutions, norms, and crisis in Asian Survey and Contemporary Southeast Asia. He earned his PhD and BA at the London School of Economics and Political Science and Delhi University, respectively.

Deepak Nair Assistant Professor of Political Science, National University of Singapore
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This workshop is part of the Economic History Workshop series in the Department of Economics and is co-sponsored by The Europe Center.

351 Landau Economics Building
579 Serra Mall
Stanford, CA 94305-6072

Fabio Braggion Tilburg University
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Although students in rural and migrant schools in China generally have not performed well, a share of each cohort has been able to thrive in school and to test into academic high school and college. To understand the origins of persistence, specifically, why some students learn more than do others, researchers have identified certain sources of the problem. Few studies, however, have paid attention to the role that low levels of cognitive development of students play in their academic performance. To address this gap, this study focuses on the role that cognition may play in terms of the academic achievement of rural students. We analyze data from more than 10,000 primary school students from private migrant schools in Beijing and Suzhou and from public rural schools in Henan and Anhui, using the Raven Standard Progressive Matrices test. Our results show high rates of developmental delay (about 33% of the students have Ravens scores that are less than one standard deviation lower than an international mean). Further, the rates of delay are large among all subgroups in the study, including rural children who attend migrant schools in cities and those who live in rural areas and attend rural public schools. The results also suggest that the cognition of students is highly correlated with their educational performance and, in fact, is by far the most important factor in their academic achievement.

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China Economic Review
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Scott Rozelle
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Understanding the causes of economic inequality is critical for achieving equitable economic development. To investigate whether global warming has affected the recent evolution of inequality, we combine counterfactual historical temperature trajectories from a suite of global climate models with extensively replicated empirical evidence of the relationship between historical temperature fluctuations and economic growth. Together, these allow us to generate probabilistic country-level estimates of the influence of anthropogenic climate forcing on historical economic output. We find very high likelihood that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased economic inequality between countries. For example, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) has been reduced 17–31% at the poorest four deciles of the population-weighted country-level per capita GDP distribution, yielding a ratio between the top and bottom deciles that is 25% larger than in a world without global warming. As a result, although between-country inequality has decreased over the past half century, there is ∼90% likelihood that global warming has slowed that decrease. The primary driver is the parabolic relationship between temperature and economic growth, with warming increasing growth in cool countries and decreasing growth in warm countries. Although there is uncertainty in whether historical warming has benefited some temperate, rich countries, for most poor countries there is >90% likelihood that per capita GDP is lower today than if global warming had not occurred. Thus, our results show that, in addition to not sharing equally in the direct benefits of fossil fuel use, many poor countries have been significantly harmed by the warming arising from wealthy countries’ energy consumption.

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Proceedings of the national Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
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Noah Diffenbaugh
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Eradicating hunger and malnutrition is a key development goal of the twenty first century. This paper addresses the problem of optimally identifying seed varieties to reliably increase crop yield within a risk-sensitive decision making framework. Specifically, a novel hierarchical machine learning mechanism for predicting crop yield (the yield of different seed varieties of the same crop) is introduced. This prediction mechanism is then integrated with a weather forecasting model and three different approaches for decision making under uncertainty to select seed varieties for planting so as to balance yield maximization and risk. The model was applied to the problem of soybean variety selection given in the 2016 Syngenta Crop Challenge. The prediction model achieved a median absolute error of 235 kg/ha and thus provides good estimates for input into the decision models. The decision models identified the selection of soybean varieties that appropriately balance yield and risk as a function of the farmer’s risk aversion level. More generally, the models can support farmers in decision making about which seed varieties to plant.

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Environment Systems and Decisions
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David Lobell
Stefano Ermon
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罗思高主讲“清华三农讲坛” 解析中国农村人力资本问题

4月11日晚,清华大学中国农村研究院主办的“清华三农讲坛”第二十五讲在清华大学公共管理学院报告厅举行。美国斯坦福大学教授、清华大学中国农村研究院学术委员会委员罗思高(Scott Rozelle)作了题为“农村人力资本:一个中国中长期发展的挑战”的演讲。北京大学国家发展研究院院长、教授姚洋进行点评。农研院副院长、研究员何宇鹏主持讲坛。

Read the full article here.

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Tsinghua University
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The JIIA-Stanford Symposium

"The Past, Present, and Future International Order in East Asia"

May 10, 2019

Bechtel Conference Center, Encina Hall, Stanford University

Sponsored and organized by the Japan Institute for International Affairs (JIIA) and Japan Program and the US-Asia Security Initiative of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) of the Freeman Spogli Institue of International Studies (FSI) at Stanford University 
 

Interstate relations in East Asia are at a critical juncture.  The post-World War II regional order, shaped by the San Francisco Treaty of 1951, underpinned by a common commitment to a liberal trade system, and led by the United States, is under stress.  The end of the Cold War, rise of China, and recent changes in America’s foreign policy orientation have transformed the environment that sustained “the San Francisco System.”  It is unclear if this system will be maintained, and if not, what will replace it.  The lineage of the San Francisco System itself reaches back to the post-World War I Versailles-Washington System.  An examination of the success and shortcomings of each of these systems can offer insights on the rise and fall of international systems, especially in an Asian context.  In this symposium, we explore the circumstances that shaped the establishment and evolution of the East Asian political, economic, and security architectures from post-WWI to present; discuss the forces that built and undermined the past and existing architecture; and debate possible regional futures.  We will emphasize the perspectives and roles of the U.S., Japan, and China, and focus on major influencing factors including historical legacies, the changing distribution of global power, alliance structures, and political ideologies.

 

Agenda

9:00am - 9:30am 
Registration and Breakfast 
 

9:30am - 9:45am 
Welcome Remarks: 
Gi-Wook Shin, Director, APARC, Stanford University 
Kenichiro Sasae, President, JIIA 
Takeo Hoshi, Director, Japan Program, APARC, Stanford Univeristy 
 

9:45am - 11:30am 
Panel I: Comparing “the Versailles-Washington System” and “San Francisco System”: Lessons from the Rise and Fall of International Orders in East Asia

Chair: Daniel Sneider, FSI, Stanford University

Panelists: 
Shin Kawashima, University of Tokyo 
Masaya Inoue,  Seikei University 
Lin Hsiao-ting, Hoover Institution, Stanford University 
David Kennedy, Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), FSI, Stanford University 
 

11:30am - 1:15pm 
Lunch 

Keynote Speaker: Ambassador Michael Armacost


1:15pm - 3:00pm 
Panel Discussion II: Japanese, U.S. and Chinese Interests and Security

Chair: Kenichiro Sasae, JIIA 

Panelists: 
Ken Jimbo, Keio University 
Tetsuo Kotani, JIIA 
Mike Lampton, APARC, Stanford University 
Jim Schoff, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) 
 

3:00pm - 3:30pm 
Coffee Break 
 

3:30pm - 5:15pm 
Panel Discussion III: Alternative Future East Asia Systems

Chair: Phillip Lipscy, FSI, Stanford University 

Panelists: 
Jim Fearon, FSI, Stanford University 
Ryo Sahashi, University of Tokyo 
Kenichiro Sasae, President, JIIA 
Tom Christensen, Columbia University 
 

5:15pm - 5:35pm 
Rapporteurs' review of symposium discusisons 
 

5:35pm - 5:45pm 
Closing Remarks: 
Karl Eikenberry, Director, US-Asia Security Initiative, APARC, Stanford University 
Kenichiro Sasae, President, JIIA 
 

5:45pm - 6:30pm 
Reception (Encina Lobby)

Bechtel Conference Center
616 Serra Mall
Encina Hall, Central, 1st Floor
Stanford, CA 94305

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In this New York Times opinion piece on the global implications of Trump's leadership, columnist Thomas L. Friedman quotes Larry Diamond who points out that Trump's presence in the White House encourages leader's in African countries, such as Museveni in Uganda, to rule as long and as brutally as they want.  


Read it here.

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