Security

FSI scholars produce research aimed at creating a safer world and examing the consequences of security policies on institutions and society. They look at longstanding issues including nuclear nonproliferation and the conflicts between countries like North and South Korea. But their research also examines new and emerging areas that transcend traditional borders – the drug war in Mexico and expanding terrorism networks. FSI researchers look at the changing methods of warfare with a focus on biosecurity and nuclear risk. They tackle cybersecurity with an eye toward privacy concerns and explore the implications of new actors like hackers.

Along with the changing face of conflict, terrorism and crime, FSI researchers study food security. They tackle the global problems of hunger, poverty and environmental degradation by generating knowledge and policy-relevant solutions. 

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The collision between the Iridium 33 and the Cosmos 2251 shows space debris is becoming a significant threat to satellites. Concerns of the threat led to the IADC space debris mitigation guidelines. However, there is no way to compel or enforce compliance with the guidelines, and since implementing some guidelines can be expensive, they are
frequently not followed. Moreover, the current legal framework is unable to determine who is liable for losses in an on-orbital collision. A space surveillance data sharing committee is proposed to solve the liability problem. Under the proposed liability rules, satellite operators would be liable for the debris they created. Insurance companies will step in to cover such risk. Therefore, there would be a financial incentive for them to adopt the debris mitigation
guidelines.


About the speaker: Ting Wang is a postdoctoral fellow at CISAC. His research concerns on space debris problems, and ASAT weapons. Before coming to CISAC in 2011, he was a postdoctoral fellow at the Judith Reppy Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies at Cornell University. He received a PhD at the Beihang University in China. His PhD dissertation was titled "Orbital Debris Evolution and Threat to Spacecraft."

He also holds a B.A. in aerospace engineering from Beihang University and has worked at the Shanghai Institute of Satellite Engineering. He was a visiting scholar at the Union of Concerned Scientists in 2003, where he began to be interested in security issues.

Reuben W. Hills Conference Room

Ting Wang Postdoctoral Fellow Speaker CISAC
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The book The Soviet Biological Weapons Program: A History by Milton Leitenberg and Raymond A. Zilinskas is scheduled to be published on May 14, 2012 by Harvard University Press. This book describes and analyzes in detail the Soviet biological warfare (BW) program, from its inception in 1928 to likely termination in 1992. The two most vexing questions that the authors attempt to answer are; in the final analysis, what were the Soviet BW program’s accomplishments? Second, might Soviet accomplishments related to enhancing biological weaponry be made available to future national or terrorist BW programs? This presentation will explain why these questions are difficult to answer but nevertheless will propose answers to them. The authors have a basis for doing so because they have been able to collect and analyze information from primary resources in archives and special collections, as well as in the course of hundreds of hours spent on interviewing scientists who operated the Soviet BW program. During his presentation, Zilinskas will discuss tentative findings that encompass subjects such as whether the application of genetic engineering, which resulted in among other accomplishments the development of multiantibiotic resistant Bacillus anthracis, Francisella tularensis, and Yersinia pestis, actually resulted in improved weaponry and whether genetically engineered strains remain in Russian cell culture collections and from there might escape or be made available to those who seek to acquire biological weapons.


About the speaker: Raymond A. Zilinskas, formerly a clinical microbiologist, is the director of the Chemical and Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Program at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies of the Monterey Institute of International Studies. He is the editor of Biological Warfare: Modern Offense and Defense (Lynne Rienner, 1999) and co-editor of the Encyclopedia of Bioterrorism Defense (Wiley, 2005). He received a PhD from the University of Southern California and a BA in Biology from the University of Stockholm.

CISAC Conference Room

Raymond Zilinskas Director, Biological Weapons Nonproliferation Program Speaker Monterey Institute for International Studies
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When the computers arrived at Ma Guanghui’s primary school in China’s rural Qinghai Province, the principal worried his students would break them. It’s not that the third- and fourth-graders are a malicious bunch. They just wouldn’t keep their hands off the new machines.

“They were so enthusiastic because they had never seen computers before,” Ma said, mimicking how the children whacked the keyboards, poked the monitors and pounded the mice before realizing they work with just a click.

“They couldn’t leave them alone,” he said.

The 15 computers that were suddenly being used by about 60 students were part of an experiment to see whether educational software and computer-assisted learning techniques would boost the scores of China’s most disadvantaged students. It’s a question that Stanford researcher Scott Rozelle and his collaborators in the Rural Education Action Project have answered with a resounding “yes.”

An economist and senior fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Rozelle has worked for years to narrow the income and education gaps between China’s rural poor and urban middle-class. He’s now focusing much of his attention on bridging a digital divide that threatens to leave children without computer skills even farther behind.

His research – the first academic work to really measure those technological disparities – has revealed stark contrasts. While about 80 percent of Chinese students living in cities use the Internet at home, only 2 percent of those in rural areas have online access at home. No one is able to surf the Web at school, and few have access to working computers.

“This is probably the greatest digital divide of any country in the world,” Rozelle said during a March 22 conference at the newly opened Stanford Center at Peking University, where Ma and a few of his students came to discuss how computers have helped improve test scores.

Loaded with games and software that taught Ma’s students Mandarin, the computers provided by ADOC2.0 – a nongovernmental organization affiliated with the Acer computer company – had a quick payoff.

Within 10 weeks, test scores rose on average from the equivalent of a C-plus to a B.

“We were No. 1 in the whole school district,” Ma said. “All our students should have computers and Internet access”

Chinese officials agree. A 10-year-plan laid out by the government calls for every student in China to have access to the Internet.

“This is a very ambitious plan,” Zheng Dawai, a director in China’s Ministry of Education, said during the conference. “But the Internet is an important way to promote learning, especially in the rural areas.”

Rozelle says the costs of a bad education and missed opportunities for China's youngest generation are too big for China to ignore. Hundreds of thousands of migrants are making their ways from the countryside into big cities where jobs await.

But as wages go up, so will the demand for skilled labor. Being poor and looking for a job is one thing. Being poor and uneducated is another.

“Nearly 40 percent of China’s kids are in poor, rural areas,” Rozelle said. “What’s the nature of their education? Are they ready for a new era where you need to know how to use a computer and navigate the Web? We’re talking about more than 100 million rural kids going through the system without the skills they need.”

That premise sets the stage for a disenfranchised class, increased violence and greater poverty that can destabilize China and jeopardize its role as one of the world’s economic stars.

Rozelle’s goal is to influence Chinese policy with the results of his research and lead government officials to the decisions that will improve the health and education of the country's up-and-coming workforce.

He and his colleagues have already had success in tackling anemia, an iron deficiency that’s rampant in rural areas where diets are often unbalanced and consist of hardly any meat. Anemic children tend to do poorly in school because of the lethargy and lack of concentration that accompany the disease.

Thanks in large part to REAP studies that have shown students’ test score go up when they take vitamins or eat more meat and vegetables, the government has committed about $20 billion during the next decade to improving school lunches.

Now the REAP team is measuring the best ways to use technology to improve school performance so he’ll have the data he needs to convince government officials to move faster and spend more money on computer-assisted learning.

Along with computer manufacturer Dell Inc., Rozelle is now partnering with toy and game developer Mike Wood. Wood is the founder and CEO of SmartyAnts, a software program that teaches English as a second language and reading skills through a series of games where the player helps “teach” an ant avatar how to read, write and enjoy learning.

With the cost of technology getting cheaper – tablet computers can cost as little as $50 – Wood is looking for ways to get educational software into the hands of children in the world’s poorest areas.

“It’s possible to load a low-cost platform with top-notch software that’s personalized and will give kids from pre-K through sixth grade access to as good a curriculum as is available to the richest kids going to the richest private schools there are,” he said. “It’s possible. And it’s something we should be doing.”

Through his research and collaborations, Rozelle and his colleagues in the Chinese Academy of Sciences aim to convince Chinese officials that Wood is right.

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Diego García-Sayán was elected President of the Inter-American Court of Human Rights for the 2010-11 and reelected for the term 2012-2013. He was the first Peruvian to be elected President of the Court. He has  served as a judge on the court since 2004. During his distinguished career, Judge García-Sayán has served as Minister of Justice of Perú, and Minister for Foreign Affairs of Perú and as a member of the Peruvian Congress.  He founded the Andean Commission of Jurists and was the Chairperson of the United Nations Working Group on Enforced or Involuntary Disappearances.  Judge García-Sayán is a university professor at Pontifical Catholic University of Peru and author of many publications on international law and human rights.

CISAC Conference Room

Honorable Judge Diego García-Sayán President Speaker Inter-American Court of Human Rights
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The Cost of Inaction (COI) is an approach to the economic evaluation of interventions that draws attention to the consequences of a failure to take an action. It is not the cost of doing nothing but the cost of not doing some particular thing and it highlights the negative impacts that result when an appropriate action is not taken.

While working as research coordinator at the FXB Center for Health and Human Rights at Harvard School of Public Health, Nadejda Marques was responsible for researching and analyzing the cost of inaction of public programs and actions that help reduce the impact of HIV/AIDS on children in Angola from 2009 to 2011. Nadejda will present the results for Angola and contrast these with the results for Rwanda.

Currently, Nadejda Marques manages the Program on Human Rights at the Center on Democracy, Development and The Rule of Law at Stanford University.

Encina Hall West - Room 202

Nadejda Marques Manager Speaker Program on Human Rights at CDDRL
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The U.S.-North Korean “Leap Day” deal of February 29 was thrown into question by the North’s recent announcement of a satellite launch between April 12 and 16 to celebrate the centenary of Kim il Sung’s birth. As the opening of the launch window nears, an intense international brouunfolds with, amazingly, the US, Russia, China, Japan, and South Korea on the same page, dead set against a launch; and an isolated North Korea defiantly planning to celebrate the centenary with a satellite launch on or by April 15. In this presentation, the three speakers will provide a brief background of the successes and failures of North Korea’s previous satellite launches (score: 0 for 3 by Western count, 2 for 2 by DPRK count) and what has been learned from these; an expected timeline of activities of the countdown; and a guide and comparison of the new Sohae Western launch complex to the older Tonghae Eastern launch complex.


About the speakers:

Lewis Franklin is a long-time CISAC Affiliate, joining CISAC in 1992 as a Visiting Scholar after retiring as a TRW vice president, and previously vice president and co-founder of ESL, a defense intelligence company. Upon retirement he was awarded the CIA's Gold Medal for career-long contributions to foreign weapons assessment and national technical means capabilities. At CISAC his work focused on technical intelligence related problems, including wmd proliferation, export controls, defense conversion, and especially conversion of retired ICBMs for low-cost space launches.

Nick Hansen is a CISAC Affiliate. He graduated with a BA in Geography from Syracuse University in 1964.  His career in national intelligence spans 43 years first as an Army imagery analyst, and then in industry with GTE-EDL, ESL/TRW, Tera Research as a cofounder Vice Pres. and then again at ESL (now TRW/Northrop-Grumman) as a Director. He has also served in an SES position at the Navy's NIOC-Suitland, MD, as an image technology expert associated with Pennsylvania State University.  He has been twice nominated for the NRO's Pioneer award for innovative imagery uses and techniques development and is an expert in foreign weapons systems and test ranges. 

Allison Puccioni is an expert in remotely-sensed imagery and geospatial intelligence at IHS Janes. She was honored for her innovative intelligence in response to Sept. 11, and has been recognized by the Department of Defense and international armed forces for her outstanding strategic and tactical analysis. 

CISAC Conference Room

Lewis Franklin CISAC Affiliate Speaker
Nick Hansen CISAC Affiliate Speaker
Allison Puccioni IHS Janes Imagery Analyst Speaker
Seminars
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About the topic: What could queueing theory, the science of customer flows and delays in service systems, possibly offer towards understanding and countering terrorism? In terror queue models, newly hatched terror plots correspond to newly arriving customers, the number of ongoing terror plots corresponds to the queue of customers waiting to receive service, undercover agents or informants correspond to service providers, customer service is initiated when a terror plot is detected, and service is completed when the plot is interdicted. Not all plots are interdicted; successful terror attacks correspond to customers who abandon the queue without receiving service! Building upon these ideas, we will focus our attention upon a simple observation: other things being equal, the number of ongoing terror plots increases with the duration of time from plot initiation until execution or interdiction (whichever comes first), yet no estimate of the probability distribution governing terror plot duration has appeared in the open literature. Starting with a review of US terrorism-related indictments, lower and upper bounds for the initiation date of 30 distinct Jihadi plots were identified in addition to the date of arrest or an attempted/actual terror act. Accounting for the censoring and truncation effects inherent with these data; the estimated mean duration equals 9 months, while 95% of all plots are estimated to fall between 1 and 25 months. These estimates suggest that in the United States, on average approximately three ongoing Jihadi terror plots have been active at any point in time since 9/11/2001.

About the Speaker: Edward H. Kaplan is the William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Management Sciences, Professor of Public Health, and Professor of Engineering at Yale University’s School of Management who is currently on sabbatical as Distinguished Visiting Professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business. The author of more than 125 research articles, Kaplan received both the Lanchester Prize and the Edelman Award, two top honors in the operations research field, among many other awards. An elected member of the National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine of the US National Academies, Kaplan’s current research focuses on the application of operations research to problems in counterterrorism and homeland security. 

CISAC Conference Room

Edward H. Kaplan Professor of Management Sciences, Professor of Public Health, and Professor of Engineering, Yale; Distinguished Visiting Professor, Graduate School of Business, Stanford Speaker
Seminars

In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

 

Kazuma Fukai, "Current Situation of Shale Gas Revolution and its Impact on the U.S. and Japan"

Shale gas is called a “game changer”. According to the Energy Information Administration, shale gas will be the major source of incremental U.S. natural gas supply, increasing its share of production from 23% in 2010 to 49% in 2035. President Obama expressed even as the U.S. develops next generation energy technologies, the U.S will continue to rely on oil and gas. Due to the shale gas boom, the current price of natural gas (U.S. Henry Hub) is declining, about 1/8 of the peak price in 2005. Given the importance of environmental issues and efficiency, combined with depressed natural gas prices, the demand for natural gas in the power sector will grow rapidly. In Japan, the unprecedented nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant affected energy policy dramatically. While the future of nuclear power in Japan is still unclear, natural gas power plants would be one of the most important energy resources to compensate for the loss of nuclear power plants as a realistic and reliable short and middle term approach. If the abundance of natural gas in the U.S. flows to Japan, it would contribute to a choice of supplier and different price formula for Japan. Fukai will present information based on the current state of shale drilling in the U.S., environmental issues, and interviews with many key experts and professors in shale gas as well as his experience at Kansai Electric Power Company.

 

Katsunori Hirano, "Learning from Sustainable Energy Financing Models Operating in the U.S. Market:  A Study for Japan's Clean and Safe Energy Future after Fukushima"

The Fukushima meltdown, which followed a devastating natural disaster in March 2011, presented the Japanese citizenry clear evidence that the way to meet their energy needs had not been sustainable. They have found the value of improving their resilience and security by their own initiative, intelligence, and foresight. The growth in the energy efficiency and renewable energy market is the defining feature of Japan’s energy future.

A substantial number of financing models are being implemented to help encourage investment in energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy deployments in the United States. In his research, Hirano tries to identify the best model operating in the U.S. market to provide financing opportunities for sustainable energy.  The local authorities in Japan can swiftly and flexibly apply this model for local households and businesses in their jurisdiction.

 

Yuji Kamimai, "A New Business Model for the Media Industry"

For a long time, it has been said that media is the mirror of the times we live in.  In his research, Kamimai tries to understand the ascent of and vast changes of media through a historical backdrop to help explain and recognize new service and technological innovation in the Silicon Valley.  Additionally, he examines some trends other than media that could help provide a deeper understanding.  From the rise of media and the latest IT business model, Kamimai learns what is important for the media to do, and explains what the next action steps are.  

 

Masami Miyashita, "A Study about the Ecosystem that Creates and Develops Global Start-ups"

Innovation is critical to economic growth, and entrepreneurship and startups are pivotal ingredients of innovation. After Japan’s economic bubble bursting in 1990, there was much talk about the lack of entrepreneurship in Japan as a driver of creative destruction and economic revival. The “Silicon Valley model” of entrepreneurship was heavily studied. Beginning in the late 1990s, the Japanese government rapidly developed institutional and social frameworks for startups in Japan. In the early 2000s, however, few Japanese startups were global in scale, and the presence in Silicon Valley of Japanese entrepreneurs and startup were still very limited. After the first decade of the 21st century, there are preliminary indications of a new wave of startups by Japanese entrepreneurs making inroads in Silicon Valley. Compared to other groups, such as Chinese or Indians, the number of Japanese entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley still remains miniscule. However, for the Japanese entrepreneurs to take advantage of the Silicon Valley entrepreneurial and innovation opportunities, lessons from the experiences and challenged faced by Japanese based in Silicon Valley are important.  In his research, Miyashita provides some of the key factors that are feeding this new wave of startups.


Philippines Conference Room

Kazuma Fukai Speaker Kansai Electric Power Company
Katsunori Hirano Speaker Shizuoka Prefectural Government
Yuji Kamimai Speaker Sumitomo Corporation
Masami Miyashita Speaker Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry, Japan
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In this session of the Shorenstein APARC Corporate Affiliate Visiting Fellows Research Presentations, the following will be presented:

 

Kazuma Fukai, "Current Situation of Shale Gas Revolution and its Impact on the U.S. and Japan"

Shale gas is called a “game changer”. According to the Energy Information Administration, shale gas will be the major source of incremental U.S. natural gas supply, increasing its share of production from 23% in 2010 to 49% in 2035. President Obama expressed even as the U.S. develops next generation energy technologies, the U.S will continue to rely on oil and gas. Due to the shale gas boom, the current price of natural gas (U.S. Henry Hub) is declining, about 1/8 of the peak price in 2005. Given the importance of environmental issues and efficiency, combined with depressed natural gas prices, the demand for natural gas in the power sector will grow rapidly. In Japan, the unprecedented nuclear disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant affected energy policy dramatically. While the future of nuclear power in Japan is still unclear, natural gas power plants would be one of the most important energy resources to compensate for the loss of nuclear power plants as a realistic and reliable short and middle term approach. If the abundance of natural gas in the U.S. flows to Japan, it would contribute to a choice of supplier and different price formula for Japan. Fukai will present information based on the current state of shale drilling in the U.S., environmental issues, and interviews with many key experts and professors in shale gas as well as his experience at Kansai Electric Power Company.

 

Katsunori Hirano, "Learning from Sustainable Energy Financing Models Operating in the U.S. Market:  A Sutdy for Japan's Clean and Safe Energy Future after Fukushima"

The Fukushima meltdown, which followed a devastating natural disaster in March 2011, presented the Japanese citizenry clear evidence that the way to meet their energy needs had not been sustainable. They have found the value of improving their resilience and security by their own initiative, intelligence, and foresight. The growth in the energy efficiency and renewable energy market is the defining feature of Japan’s energy future.

A substantial number of financing models are being implemented to help encourage investment in energy efficiency improvements and renewable energy deployments in the United States. In his research, Hirano tries to identify the best model operating in the U.S. market to provide financing opportunities for sustainable energy.  The local authorities in Japan can swiftly and flexibly apply this model for local households and businesses in their jurisdiction.

 

Yuji Kamimai, "A New Business Model for the Media Industry"

For a long time, it has been said that media is the mirror of the times we live in.  In his research, Kamimai tries to understand the ascent of and vast changes of media through a historical backdrop to help explain and recognize new service and technological innovation in the Silicon Valley.  Additionally, he examines some trends other than media that could help provide a deeper understanding.  From the rise of media and the latest IT business model, Kamimai learns what is important for the media to do, and explains what the next action steps are.

 

Masami Miyashita, "A Study about the Ecosystem that Creates and Develops Global Start-ups"

Innovation is critical to economic growth, and entrepreneurship and startups are pivotal ingredients of innovation. After Japan’s economic bubble bursting in 1990, there was much talk about the lack of entrepreneurship in Japan as a driver of creative destruction and economic revival. The “Silicon Valley model” of entrepreneurship was heavily studied. Beginning in the late 1990s, the Japanese government rapidly developed institutional and social frameworks for startups in Japan. In the early 2000s, however, few Japanese startups were global in scale, and the presence in Silicon Valley of Japanese entrepreneurs and startup were still very limited. After the first decade of the 21st century, there are preliminary indications of a new wave of startups by Japanese entrepreneurs making inroads in Silicon Valley. Compared to other groups, such as Chinese or Indians, the number of Japanese entrepreneurs in Silicon Valley still remains miniscule. However, for the Japanese entrepreneurs to take advantage of the Silicon Valley entrepreneurial and innovation opportunities, lessons from the experiences and challenged faced by Japanese based in Silicon Valley are important.  In his research, Miyashita provides some of the key factors that are feeding this new wave of startups.


Philippines Conference Room

Kazuma Fukai Speaker Kansai Electric Power Company
Katsunori Hirano Speaker Shizuoka Prefectural Government
Yuji Kamimai Speaker Sumitomo Corporation
Masami Miyashita Speaker Ministry of Economy, Trade & Industry, Japan
Seminars
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