International Relations

FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

Foreign aid is also examined by scholars trying to understand whether money earmarked for health improvements reaches those who need it most. And FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center has published on the need for strong South Korean leadership in dealing with its northern neighbor.

FSI researchers also look at the citizens who drive international relations, studying the effects of migration and how borders shape people’s lives. Meanwhile FSI students are very much involved in this area, working with the United Nations in Ethiopia to rethink refugee communities.

Trade is also a key component of international relations, with FSI approaching the topic from a slew of angles and states. The economy of trade is rife for study, with an APARC event on the implications of more open trade policies in Japan, and FSI researchers making sense of who would benefit from a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.

Institute for International Studies
Encina Hall E116
Stanford University
Stanford, CA, 94305-6055

(650) 723-4581
Visiting Payne Distinguished Lecturer
PhD

Professor Van Gerven is currently a member of the faculty of law at the Leuven Center for a Common Law of Europe in Belgium. He is formerly Vice-Rector and Chairman of the Social Sciences Group of Leuven and formerly President of the Belgian Banking Commission. He has also served as Advocate General of the European Court of Justice in Luxembourg and on a committee of independent experts to examine fraud, nepotism, and mismanagement in the European Union Commission.

The European Forum, in association with the European Union Center of California at Scripps College, is hosting a workshop on "The EU, the US and the WTO" on February 28 and March 1, 2003. The aim of the workshop is to conduct an in-depth discussion in an academic setting about the current state of the WTO, the relationship between the EU and the US and that institution, and the prospects for a successful Doha round of trade negotiations. Invited participants from the US and the EU, including economists, political scientists and lawyers will be at the meeting.

The workshop will address five topics in its sessions. After a keynote address on Friday morning the workshop will look at the WTO as an evolving institution, the EU and the WTO, and the US and the WTO. The Workshop recommences on Saturday at 9:00am, to discuss transatlantic cooperation and the WTO and prospects for the Doha Round.

CISAC Conference Room

Andrew Stoler Speaker University of Adelaide
Richard Steinberg Speaker UCLA School of Law

Encina Hall
Stanford University
Stanford, CA, 94305-6044

(650) 723-0671 (650) 723-1808
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Janet M. Peck Professor of International Communication
Professor of Political Science
goldstein2.jpg PhD

Judith L. Goldstein is  the Janet M. Peck Professor of International Communication and the Kaye University Fellow in Undergraduate Education. She is a member of the AAAS,  is the current chair of the university faculty senate and  the chair of the board for the journal International Organization.  Her research focuses on international political economy, with a focus on trade politics. She has written and/or edited six book including Ideas, Interests and American Trade Policy and more recently The Evolution of the Trade Regime: Politics, Law and Economics of the GATT and the WTO.  Her articles have appeared in numerous journals.

Her current research focuses on the issue of adjustment to global economic shocks, with a focus on employment issues. She has on going projects on tariff bargaining, on foreign policy attitudes and on globalization more generally.

Goldstein has a BA from the University of California Berkeley, a Masters degree from Columbia University and a Ph.D. from UCLA.

Affiliated faculty at The Europe Center
Judy Goldstein Speaker Stanford University
John H. Barton Speaker Stanford University
Bart Kerremans Speaker Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
Anthony Gooch Speaker European Commission
Stephen Woolcock Speaker London School of Economics
Bruce Stokes Speaker National Journal
Mac Destler Speaker Institute for International Economics
Jeff Schott Speaker Institute for International Economics
Richard Morningstar Speaker Harvard University
Timothy E. Josling Speaker Stanford University
Geza Feketekuty Speaker Monterey Institute of International Studies
Dale Hathaway Speaker National Center for Food and Agriculture Policy
John Nash Speaker The World Bank
Workshops
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Ambassador Qazi holds a masters' degree in economics from Punjab University in Lahore, Pakistan. He joined the foreign service of Pakistan in 1965 where he served as Official on Special Duty at Headquarters. Since then he has held various diplomatic assignments at Pakistan Missions, such as London (1967-1969), Tripoli (1969-1971), Cairo (1971-1975), Tokyo (1978-1981) and Copenhagen (1981-1982). Ambassador Qazi has also served as Ambassador of Pakistan to Syria, Germany, Russia, the Peoples' Republic of China and High Commissioner of Pakistan to India from March 1997 to May 2002. The Ambassador is married and has two daughters.

Philippines Conference Room

Ambassador Ashraf Jehangir Qazi Ambassador of Pakistan to the United States Speaker
Seminars
Authors
David G. Victor
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Having backed down from its trade dispute with the EU over GM food, the Bush administration will find it hard to make the threat of going to the trade organization credible again and to continue the momentum toward removing Europe's ban.

STANFORD, California - The Bush administration wisely backed away this month from formally challenging Europe's ban on genetically modified foods. It made no sense to antagonize Europeans over the food they eat when they are pivotal to more weighty matters, such as a new resolution on Iraq.

Still, Washington's threat that it would file a case against the European Union at the World Trade Organization had palpable benefits. Even the countries with the most hostile policies on engineered food - France and Germany among them - took steps toward allowing the European Union to work on replacing the blanket ban with a new system for tracing and labeling engineered food.

But the decision to back off also means that American farmers are still denied access to the lucrative European market. European consumers still pay more for food than they should. And developing countries that could most benefit from engineered crops are still frightened that losing their "engineering-free" status will make it impossible to export food to Europe.

Yet the science on food safety is as certain as it ever gets: There is no known danger from eating engineered food.

Having backed down, the Bush administration will find it hard to make the threat of going to the trade organization credible again and to continue the momentum toward removing Europe's ban. But even harder for the administration will be keeping domestic politics at bay.

The biggest threat to the success of the U.S. strategy on engineered foods is in the American heartland, which is angling for a fight with Europe over the ban as the 2004 elections approach. Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa called the decision to defer a trade dispute "the usual snobbery" of a State Department "more concerned about international sensitivities than the American farmer." Two tactics should guide the effort to open Europe's markets. One is to let the Europeans lead their own reform.

The engineered foods available to consumers today mainly benefit farmers who can grow them at lower cost. These foods look and taste the same as their traditional counterparts. For rich consumers in Europe willing to pay a bit more, it is easy to focus on hypothetical risks and shun these products. But the next generation of engineered foods, already nearing the marketplace, will have healthful benefits for consumers - fruits that contain cancer-fighting lycopene, for instance - and this will make it harder for European countries to bar all these foods.

During the furor last summer over Zambia's rejection of genetically modified corn, prominent European politicians were forced to declare that these foods were safe - a blatant contradiction of Europe's own policies.

The other tactic is outreach to the developing world. In the poorest nations, agriculture provides the livelihood of most of the population, and agricultural research proves that genetic engineering can make crops that poor farmers grow both healthier and more productive.

Yet research on engineered crops and support for farmers who grow them lack money, not only in U.S. agricultural development and extension programs but also at the international agricultural research centers that were the engine of the first green revolution. In the last decade American support for international agricultural research has declined considerably.

An American program that would finance agricultural research on novel uses for genetically modified crops in developing countries would help those countries and could eventually help open European markets.

An American-led effort to pry open those markets would backfire. But one led by a developing country could succeed, as Europe considers the moral issues posed by barring food from a country which needs to sell its crops to survive. So far, few developing countries (South Africa is one exception) allow commercial planting of engineered crops. The United States needs to overcome the fears of the developing nations by growing such crops there and demonstrating how they could transform agriculture.

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Authors
David G. Victor
Nadejda M. Victor
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Since the fall of communism, the U.S. and Russia have been searching for areas for mutually beneficial cooperation. While oil has historically taken center stage, David and Nadejda Victor argue that diplomats should consider nuclear energy as well.

Since the Iron Curtain came crashing down, American and Russian diplomats have been searching for a special relationship between their countries to replace Cold War animosity.

Security matters have not yielded much. On issues such as the expansion of Nato, stabilising Yugoslavia and the war in Chechnya, the two have sought each other's tolerance more than co-operation. Nor have the two nations developed much economic interaction, as a result of Russia's weak institutions and faltering economy. Thus, by default, "energy" has become the new special topic in Russian-American relations.

This enthusiasm is misplaced, however. A collapse of oil prices in the aftermath of an invasion of Iraq may soon lay bare the countries' divergent interests. Russia needs high oil prices to keep its economy afloat, whereas US policy would be largely unaffected by falling energy costs. Moreover, cheerleaders of a new Russian-American oil partnership fail to understand that there is not much the two can do to influence the global energy market or even investment in Russia's oil sector. The focus on oil has also eclipsed another area in which US and Russian common interests could run deeper: nuclear power. Joint efforts to develop new technologies for generating nuclear power and managing nuclear waste could result in a huge payoff for both countries. These issues, which are the keys to keeping nuclear power viable, are formally on the Russian-American political agenda, but little has been done to tap the potential for co -operation. Given Russia's scientific talent and the urgent need to reinvigorate nuclear non-proliferation programmes, a relatively minor commitment of diplomatic and financial resources could deliver significant long-term benefits to the United States.

On the surface, energy co-operation seems a wise choice. Russia is rich in hydrocarbons and the US wants them. Oil and gas account for two-fifths of Russian exports. Last year, Russia reclaimed its status, last held in the late 1980s, as the world's top oil producer. Its oil output this year is expected to top eight million barrels per day and is on track to rise further. Russian oil firms also made their first shipments to US markets last year - some symbolically purchased as part of US efforts to augment its strategic petroleum reserve. In addition, four Russian oil companies are preparing a new, large port in Murmansk as part of a plan to supply more than 10 per cent of total US oil imports within a decade.

Meanwhile, the US remains the world's largest consumer and importer of oil. This year, it will import about 60 per cent of the oil it burns, and the US Energy Information Administration expects foreign dependence will rise to about 70 per cent by 2010, and continue inching upwards thereafter. Although the US economy is much less sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices than it was three decades ago, diversification and stability in world oil markets are a constant worry.

War jitters and political divisions cast a long shadow over the Persian Gulf, source of one-quarter of the world's oil. In Nigeria, the largest African oil exporter, sectarian violence periodically not only interrupts oil operations but also sent Miss World contestants packing last year. A scheme by Latin America's top producer, Venezuela, to pump up its share of world production helped trigger a collapse in world oil prices in the late 1990s and ushered in the leftist government of President Hugo Chavez. Last year, labour strikes aimed at unseating Mr Chavez shut Venezuela's ports and helped raise prices to more than US$ 30 (HK$ 234) a barrel. Next to these players, Russia is a paragon of stability.

The aftermath of a war in Iraq would probably provide a first test for the shallow new Russian-American partnership. Most attention on Russian interests in Iraq has focused on two issues: Iraq's lingering Soviet-era debt, variously measured at US$ 7 billion to US$ 12 billion, and the dominant position of Russian companies in controlling leases for several Iraqi oilfields. Both are red herrings. No company that has signed lease deals with Saddam Hussein's government could believe those rights are secure. Russia's top oil company, Lukoil, knew that when it met Iraqi opposition leaders in an attempt to hedge its bets for possible regime change. (Saddam's discovery of those contacts proved the point: he cancelled, then later reinstated, Lukoil's interests in the massive Western Kurna field.)

Russian officials have pressed the US to guarantee the existing contracts, but officials have wisely demurred. There would be no faster way to confirm Arab suspicions that regime change is merely a cover for taking control of Iraq's oil than by awarding the jewels before a new government is known and seated.

Of course, the impact of a war on world oil supply and price is hard to predict. A long war and a tortuous rebuilding process could deprive the market of Iraqi crude oil (about two million barrels a day, last year). Damage to nearby fields in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia could make oil even more scarce. And already tight inventories and continued troubles in Venezuela could deliver a "perfect storm" of soaring oil prices.

The most plausible scenario, however, is bad news for Russia: a brief war, quickly followed by increased Iraqi exports, along with a clear policy of releasing oil from America's reserves to deter speculators. A more lasting Russian-American energy agenda would focus on subjects beyond the current, fleeting common interest in oil. To find an area in which dialogue can truly make a difference, Russia and the US should look to the subject that occupied much of their effort in the 1990s, but that both sides neglected too quickly: nuclear power.

With the end of the Cold War, the two nations created a multi-billion-dollar programme to sequester Russia's prodigious quantities of fissile material and nuclear technology. The goal was to prevent these "loose nukes" from falling into the hands of terrorists or hostile states.

The Co-operative Threat Reduction programme also included funds to employ Russian scientists through joint research projects and academic exchanges.

Inevitably, it has failed to meet all its goals. In a country where central control has broken down and scientific salaries have evaporated, it is difficult to halt the departure of every nuclear resource. Nor is it surprising that US appropriators have failed to deliver the billions of dollars promised for the collective endeavour. Other priorities have constantly intervened, and Russia's uneven record in complying with arms control agreements has made appropriation of funds a perpetual congressional battle. Various good ideas for reinvigorating the programme have gone without funding and bureaucratic attention - even in the post-September 11 political environment, in which practically any idea for fighting terrorism can get money.

Russia has opened nuclear waste encapsulation and storage facilities near Krasnoyarsk, raising the possibility of creating an international storage site for nuclear waste. This topic has long been taboo, but it is an essential issue to raise if the global nuclear power industry is to move beyond the inefficiencies of small-scale nuclear waste management.

Russia should also be brought into worldwide efforts to design new nuclear reactors. The global nuclear research community, under US leadership, has outlined comprehensive and implementable plans for the next generation of fission reactors. The Russian nuclear programme is one of the world's leaders in handling the materials necessary for new reactor designs. Yet Russia is not currently a member of the US government-led Generation IV International Forum, one of the main vehicles for international co-operation on fission reactors and their fuel cycles. Top US priorities must include integrating Russia into that effort, endorsing Russia's relationships with other key nuclear innovators (such as Japan), and delivering on the promise made at last summer's G8 meeting of leaders of the world's biggest economies - to help Russia secure its nuclear materials.

For opponents of nuclear power, no plan will be acceptable. But the emerging recognition that global warming is a real threat demands that nations develop serious, environmentally friendly energy alternatives. Of all the major options available today, only nuclear power and hydroelectricity offer usable energy with essentially zero emissions of greenhouse gases.

Neither government should be naive about the sustainability of this endeavour. Russia is not an ideal partner because its borders have been a sieve for nuclear know-how and because its nuclear managers are suspected of abetting the outflow. Thus, plans for nuclear waste storage, for example, must ensure that they render the waste a minimal threat for proliferation. The US must also be more mindful of Russian sensitivity to co-operation on matters that, to date, have been military secrets.

Another difficult issue that both nations must confront is Russia's relationship with Iran. A perennial thorn in ties, Russia's nuclear co -operation with officials in Tehran owes much not just to Iranian money but to the complex relationship between the two countries over drilling and export routes for Caspian oil. This link to Iran cannot be wished away, as it is rooted in Russia's very geography. Any sustainable nuclear partnership between the US and Russia must develop a political strategy to handle this reality.

The world, including the US, needs the option of viable nuclear power. Yet Russia's talented scientists and nuclear resources sit idle, ready for action.

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This unit introduces students to the topics of diasporas, migration, and the role and experience of diasporic communities in the United States. Students learn about five diasporas in the United States-the Armenian, Chinese, Cuban, Irish, and Yoruban- from their development as diasporas to their contemporary identities, roles, and remaining homeland ties.
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This seminar is part 5 of SPRIE's 5-part series on "Greater China: Entrepreneurial Leaders."

With China's fast growth pace, the build-up of its communication network is one important factor to ensure continuous growth. However, with the gloomy economy in the rest of the world, China's service providers are adjusting their investment strategy. Understanding the dynamics in the Greater China region will help capture market opportunity.

Mr. Gwong-Yih Lee is a distinguished entrepreneur, leader, and visionary in the emerging telecom market. Currently, he serves as a senior director of Global Solutions at Cisco Systems. Prior to Cisco, Mr. Lee was founder and chairman/CEO of TransMedia Communications, Inc. Acquired by Cisco in 1999 at the value of approximately $500 million, TransMedia builds products that capitalize on the opportunities created by the convergence of data, voice, and video. In 1999, TransMedia was selected as "Best of Breed" startup by the industry's top venture capitalists.

In May 1987, Mr. Lee founded Digicom Systems, Inc., a company devoted to high-speed modern communications applications in both software algorithms and hardware. Digicom has developed, manufactured, marketed, and supported a full continuing line of high speed communications products and was acquired by Creative Technology, Ltd. In 1994, prior to Mr. Lee's founding Digicom Systems, he held positions as a senior engineering manager with Silicon Valley firms including Anderson Jacobson, Racal-Datacom, and Cermetek Microelectronics.

Mr. Lee received a bachelor's degree from National Chiao-Tung University in Taiwan and a master's degree in electrical engineering from New York State University.

Philippines Conference Room, Encina Hall, Third Floor, Central Wing

Gwong-Yih Lee Senior Director and General Manager Cisco Systems
Seminars
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This seminar is part 2 of SPRIE's 5-part series on "Greater China: Entrepreneurial Leaders."

From a venture capital investor's perspective, what are the key opportunities and challenges of doing business in China in the current environment? Why? How is China's emerging private equity investment industry? What are the major differences between "home-grown" Chinese private equity firms and foreign capital firms? Bobby Chao will address these questions, based on personal experience gained over the past twenty years.

Bobby Chao began his career as one of the five original founders of Cadence Design Systems. A year after Cadence's successful IPO, Bobby founded Ocron, a leader in Optical Character Recognition (OCR) technology and document management software. Bobby was chairman and CEO of Ocron until Umax Technologies, Inc. acquired it. He then became part of the Umax team serving as senior vice president of marketing in charge of corporate marketing and investment. Bobby was previously general partner for Technology Associates Management Company and has served as chairman and CEO of VA Linux Systems.

Mr. Chao currently serves as chairman of Dragon Venture Inc., a cross-pacific venture capital, consulting, and M&A company, bridging the U.S. and Greater China markets. Portfolio companies focus on telecommunications, Internet infrastructure, Linux, fables IC designs, and EDA. Mr. Chao is currently on the board of several companies and professional organizations.

Mr. Chao holds a B.S. in physics from Taiwan, an M.S. in physics from Georgia State University, and an M.S. in aeronautical engineering from Stanford University.

Philippines Conference Room

Seminars
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Elections in Thailand in January 2001 yielded a remarkable near-majority for the Thai Rak Thai ("Thai Love Thai") Party of computer and telecommunications billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra, who became prime minister despite serious legal charges of tax evasion. Although the Constitutional Court acquitted him (by a close 8-to-7 vote), his tenure in office has given rise to widespread impressions of populism on the one hand and corruption on the other.

In her talk, Dr. Phongpaichit will explore the background and implications of Thaksin's rise to power and his ongoing use of it. Pasuk Phongpaichit is Thailand's best known and most widely read economist. Books authored or coauthored by her include Corruption and Democracy in Thailand; Thailand: Economy and Politics; Thailand's Crisis; Thailand's Boom and Bust; The Thai Village Economy in the Past; Employment, Income and the Mobilization of Local Resources in Three Thai Villages; Challenging Social Exclusion: Rights and Livelihood in Thailand; Guns, Girls, Gambling, Ganja: Thailand's Illegal Economy and Public Policy; and From Peasant Girls to Bangkok Masseuses.

Her current research is on "The Structure and Dynamics of Capital in Post-Crisis Thailand." In fall 2002 she was a visiting professor at the School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC. She received her Ph.D. in economics from Cambridge University.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Pasuk Phongpaichit Speaker
Seminars
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