A week before Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, unleashing the biggest military operation in Europe since World War II, three experts on Russia—Rose Gottemoeller, chief U.S. negotiator for the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) and former NATO deputy secretary-general; Olga Oliker, program director for Europe and Central Asia for the International Crisis Group; and Thomas Graham, distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former U.S. presidential adviser on Russia—were interviewed on Zoom and email by Carol Giacomo, chief editor of Arms Control Today, about the origins of the crisis and what an eventual solution might involve. Their comments, made as U.S. and European leaders were still working for a diplomatic solution, have been edited for clarity and length.

Read the rest at Arms Control Today

Rose Gottemoeller, the Steven C. Házy lecturer at the Center for International Security and Cooperation in Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and research fellow at the Hoover Institution, leads a conversation on international security and cooperation.

Watch with the Council on Foreign Relations

Mofeed Digest (October – December 2021)

The following digest summarizes the most important scholarly and policy publications, reports, and articles covering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the politics, economies, and societies of the Arab world. Mofeed Digest is produced by Mofeed Project Coordinator Serage Amatory.

[MENA | Algeria | Bahrain | Comoros | Djibouti | Egypt| Iraq| Jordan| Kuwait| Lebanon| Libya| Mauritania| Morocco| Oman| Palestine| Qatar| Saudi Arabia| Somalia| Sudan| Syria| Tunisia| UAE| Yemen]

MENA

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MENA Economic Update: Overconfident: How Economic and Health Fault Lines Left the Middle East and North Africa Ill-Prepared to Face COVID
World Bank, October 2021
This World Bank report discusses factors that exacerbated the pandemic’s burden on MENA governments, namely that governments were “ill-prepared” and overestimated their capacities to overcome the pandemic. Authors attribute lack of preparedness to insufficient data and limited fiscal capabilities. Sixteen  MENA countries, the report argues, are projected to have a deterioration in economic status after the pandemic. [Arabic] 

COVID-19 Response IOM Regional Office for Middle East and North Africa Situation Report 28
International Organization for Migration, October 2021
A report by the United Nation’s International Organization for Migration reflects on and presents the findings of a fifth round of a cross-regional consultation with MENA Civil Society Organizations. The report examines social protections for migrants during and after the pandemic and entry requirements adopted by several MENA countries.

AraCOVID19-SSD: Arabic COVID-19 Sentiment and Sarcasm Detection Dataset 
arXiv Labs, 5 October 2021
This paper presents AraCOVID19-SSD, a dataset for the detection of sarcasm in Arabic tweets about the pandemic. The paper aims to help distinguish between misleading and sarcastic posts, a distinction that is often overlooked by non-Arabic-friendly data analytical systems and classification models. 

Transcript of the October 2021 Annual Meetings-Middle East and Central Asia Department Press Briefing
International Monetary Fund, 19 October 2021
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released the proceedings of an IMF expert panel assessing the post-pandemic recovery in the countries of the region.

The Political Economy of Reform in Post-COVID MENA
Middle East Institute, 19 October 2021
The Middle East Institute discusses political and economic reforms necessary for post-pandemic recovery in the countries of the region. Social disparities and low productivity, the panel concludes, will continue to challenge such reforms.

Women, Work and COVID-19 in MENA: Towards an Action Agenda           
Wilson Center, 22 October 2021
Building on an International Labor Organization report, this Wilson Center article highlights the pandemic’s impact on working women in the MENA region. In Arab countries, women lost their jobs at a rate of 4.1 percent as a result of the pandemic compared to a 1.8 percent drop in men’s employment.

Majority of MENA Employees Expect Remote Work to Increase Post-COVID-19
Weqaya, 26 October 2021
According to this piece from Weqaya, an official UAE online health platform, the majority of respondents to a survey conducted by a job website (Bayt.com) expected an increase in remote work. Respondents did not look forward to pre-pandemic in-person work settings. 

Who's More Vulnerable? A Generational Investigation of COVID-19 Perceptions' Effect on Organisational Citizenship Behaviours in the MENA Region: Job insecurity, Burnout and Job Satisfaction as Mediators
BMC Public Health, 27 October 2021
This paper links perceptions of the pandemic to OCBs (Organizational Citizenship Behavior). Its findings suggest that burnout, job attitudes, and organizational outcomes change differently across generations in pandemic times.

Ministerial Forum Declaration: The future of Social Protection in the Arab Region
UNICEF, November 2021
This report presents highlights from a “high-level” ministerial forum for Arab ministers responsible for social protections in their respective countries. The forum is coordinated by UNICEF, ILO, and UN-ESCWA.

School Reopening Status, Progress and Challenges
UNICEF, November 2021
This UNICEF report tackles “digital poverty” in the MENA region. It highlights UNICEF’s calls for increased investment in remote learning and digital learning. The report also points to the disparate impacts of this problem across different social groups.

COVID-19 Driving Child Marriage for Refugee Girls in Middle East North Africa (MENA)
Global Campus of Human Rights, 4 November 2021
This Global Campus of Human Rights article brings to focus the links between school closures and female underage marriage, especially among refugees.

Correlation Analysis of Spatio-temporal Arabic COVID-19 Tweets
Association for Computing Machinery, 4 November 2021
This article analyzes reactions to the pandemic based on an analysis of Arabic tweets and official health provider data. The findings show a positive association between top subjects, such as lockdown and vaccine, and the increasing number of COVID-19 new cases. Unfavorable attitudes among Arab Twitter users were generally heightened during the pandemic on issues such as lockdown, closure, and law enforcement.

How COVID-19 Crisis Undermined MENA States’ Food Security Progress
Arab News, 20 November 2021
Arab News reports on the impact of COVID-19 on food security in the MENA region.

Covid-19 and Food Security Challenges in the MENA Region
Economic Research Forum, 20 November 2021
The paper argues that food security is associated with the strictness of pandemic measures. In part due to weak governance, corruption, and feeble health systems, food security in the MENA region remains tenuous in the wake of the pandemic. 

The Middle East and COVID-19: Time for Collective Action
Global Health, 22 November 2021
This Global Health article outlines the various effects of the pandemic on the MENA region and assesses the responses of various states to the pandemic. It highlights the need for greater intra-regional cooperation in the MENA region on this issue.  

COVID-19 and MENA: Governance, Geopolitics and Gender
Gendered Perspectives on International Development, 24 November 2021
This article investigates the gendered impact of the pandemic on MENA countries and calls for a “new gender contract” in the region.

One-Year Review of COVID-19 in the Arab World
Qatar Medical Journal, 27 November 2021
This article assesses the prevalence of COVID-19 in Arab countries between February 2020 and February 2021 and compares these findings with other significantly affected countries. Bahrain, Qatar, Lebanon, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates recorded the most COVID-19 infections per million.

COVID-19 Learning Losses: Rebuilding Quality Learning for All in the Middle East and North Africa
UNICEF, World Bank, UNESCO, December 2021
This WB-UNICEF-UNESCO joint report discusses the effects of the pandemic on education in the MENA region. 

Reliable Health Data in the MENA Region: The Hard Pill to Swallow
The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy, 2 December 2021
TIMEP reports on the shortages of accurate data on COVID-19 from the MENA region.

Bread&Net 2021: Towards A Growing Regional Digital Rights Community
SMEX, 2 December 2021
SMEX discusses digital rights in the region in 2021 and highlights COVID-19- related challenges like the digitization of health documents and a digital vaccine passport. 

Factors Associated with the Unwillingness of Jordanians, Palestinians and Syrians to Be Vaccinated Against COVID-19
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 9 December 2021
Analyzing a survey carried out in Jordan, the West Bank, and Syria, this article reports that two-thirds of respondents were “unwilling or hesitant” to receive a COVID-19 vaccine.

The Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Women-Led Businesses and Women Entrepreneurs in MENA
Center for International Private Enterprise, 13 December 2021
The Center for International Private Enterprise explains the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the MENA region, as well as the threat the pandemic poses to women’s job security and women-led SMEs.

Acceptability of the COVID-19 Vaccine Among Patients with Chronic Rheumatic Diseases and Health-Care Professionals: a Cross-Sectional Study in 19 Arab Countries
The Lancet Rheumatology, 13 December 2021
Based on a survey covering 3,176 participants from 19 Arab countries, this article reports that many patients with chronic rheumatic diseases were reluctant to receive the COVID-19 vaccine due to fear of side effects, disease flare, and lack of information regarding the novel vaccines.

Consensus Meeting Report “Technology Enhanced Assessment” in Covid-19 Time, MENA Regional Experiences and Reflections
Advances in Medical Education and Practice, 14 December 2021
This article explains the challenges associated with educational institutions’ reliance on online testing in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Freedoms in MENA in the Times of COVID-19
Arab Barometer, 17 December 2021
According to this Arab Barometer infographic, citizens, with varying degrees across countries, that freedoms of expression, demonstration, and the media are among the most threatened ones.

Distributional Impacts of COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa Region
World Bank, 20 December 2021
This World Bank report examines the distributional effects of the pandemic and makes projections on how COVID-19 could affect poverty levels in the MENA region. [Arabic]

MENA Economic Outlook 2022: Strengthening Regional Growth Faces Noticeable Global Headwinds
IHS Market, 21 December 2021
This IHS Market report projects an uptick in MENA economies between 2022 and 2023 based on expected increases in energy revenues and vaccination rates. It also touches upon monetary policies and predicted inflation across the region.

Air Pollution Back to Pre-COVID-19 Levels in the MENA Region
GreenPeace, 22 December 2021
This Greenpeace report examines air pollution in the MENA region during the pandemic. It indicates levels of pollutants are once again rising to pre-pandemic levels.

Capital Regulation and Market Competition in the MENA Region: Policy Implications for Banking Sector Stability During COVID-19 Pandemic
Global Business Review, 23 December 2021
This article investigates the impact of capital requirements and market competition on the stability of financial institutions in the MENA region.

Between Conflicts, Politics, and COVID-19: Challenges for Arab Journalists
The Arab Center-DC, 30 December 2021
The Arab Center-Washington DC sheds light on limitations on the freedom of the press in the wake of COVID-19. 

Algeria

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Algeria Begins Producing a Coronavirus Vaccine
AlFanar Media, 22 October 2021
At an anticipated production rate of 8 million doses per month, the state-owned Saidal began producing COVID-19 vaccines with a license from Chinese Sinovac to manufacture jabs locally. [Arabic]

Effects of Temperature and Relative Humidity on the COVID-19 Pandemic in Different Climates: a Study Across Some Regions in Algeria (North Africa)
Environmental Science and Pollution Research International, 22 October 2021
This article characterizes the role of meteorological factors on the transmission of the coronavirus based on a study of 14 Algerian cities with varying climate conditions. It shows a weak correlation between meteorological factors and daily infection numbers.

Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Job Recruitment Among Private Companies in Algeria from 2020 to 2021
Statista, 27 October 2021
This article explores the impact of the pandemic on job recruitments in Algeria’s private sector. Twenty-eight percent of surveyed Algerian companies stopped hiring during the first quarter of 2021 because of the outbreak. This is compared to a hiring freeze of twenty-four percent of companies in 2020.  

IMF Executive Board Concludes 2021 Article IV Consultation with Algeria
IMF, 22 November 2021
This IMF official release summarizes the Executive Board’s consultations with the Algeria government. The document covers the impact of COVID-19 on the Algerian economy.

Projected Poverty Headcount Ratio Before and During the Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Algeria as of 2020
Statista, 1 December 2021
In 2020, poverty in Algeria was projected to increase due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. During the pandemic, 26.5 percent of the Algerian population was projected to be living with less than 5.5 U.S. dollars per day, while 3.3 percent with less than 3.2 U.S. dollars per day. Considering both poverty lines, poverty was projected to rise compared to the pre-COVID-19 period.

Bahrain

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Reducing COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy by Implementing Organizational Intervention in a Primary Care Setting in Bahrain
Cureus Journal, November 5 2021
Based on a  study conducted in Bahrain, this article finds that improving physicians’ and healthcare professionals’ vaccine advice could reduce vaccine hesitancy among patients.

Estimation of COVID-19 Generated Medical Waste in the Kingdom of Bahrain
Science Total Environment Journal, December 2021
The paper evaluates the medical waste generated in the Kingdom of Bahrain in the course of the prevention and cure of COVID-19.

Comoros

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IMF Management Approves Program Monitored by Union of the Comoros Staff
NNN News Nigeria, 30 October 2021
The International Monetary Fund approved an SMP (Staff Monitoring Program) for Comoros. The program is expected to help with policy recommendations and reforms as well as mitigate the pandemic’s economic burdens. 

Djibouti

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Analysis the Dynamics of SIHR Model: Covid-19 Case in Djibouti
Journal of Applied Mathematics,10 October 2021
Based on data collected from the Djibouti Health Ministry, the articles offers conceptual mathematical models of epidemic dynamics.

Djibouti Rolls Out COVID-19 Vaccinations for Migrants
IOM, 19 October 2021
The International Organization for Migration reports that migrants in Djibouti are receiving the COVID-19 vaccine shots at the Migration Response Center (MRC) in Obock.

Monitoring the Impact of COVID-19 on Households in Djibouti Through High Frequency Phone Surveys
World Bank, 27 October 2021
With technical assistance from the World Bank, a new high-frequency survey was launched to help monitor the socio-economic impacts of the outbreak. 

Djibouti Takes an Inclusive Approach to Schooling for Refugees
World Bank, 20 December 2021
This World Bank article highlights Djibouti’s efforts at providing schooling for refugee children. [Arabic]

Egypt

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The Impact of COVID-19 on Poor Households in Egypt: Preliminary Results from the Pilot
G²LM│LIC, March 2021
This policy brief by “The Gender, Growth and Labor Markets in Low-Income Countries Program” presents the disproportionate effects of the pandemic on within families. It indicates that the effects tend to be more challenging for women, especially those with children.

COVID 19 MENA Monitor Enterprise Survey, CMMENT – Wave 1
Economic Research Forum, 14 October 2021
The Economic Research Forum led a COVID-19 MENA Monitor survey to provide policymakers and researchers with information on the pandemic’s impact on the Egyptian economy and the labor market. 

Depression Among Health Workers Caring for Patients with COVID-19 in Egypt
The Egyptian Journal of Neurology, Psychiatry and Neurosurgery, 18 October 2021
This research paper shows that Major Depressive Disorder is common among healthcare workers in Egypt during the COVID-19 outbreak. It recommends early screening and treatment, especially for young females.

Egypt’s COVID-19 Vaccination Lags behind Most Mena Countries
The National, 1 November 2021
Egypt's vaccination rate (eight percent) lags behind most countries in the region, the National reports. 

Egypt Announces Clinical Trials of its Own COVID-19 Vaccine
USNews, 14 November 2021
The national research body of Egypt announced the beginning of clinical trials for a domestically manufactured COVID-19 vaccine. 

Covid-19 Humour in Egypt: An Analysis of Al-Daheeh Episodes
English Academy Review, 29 November 2021
Based on an analysis of episodes from the Egyptian satirical YouTube Show, “Al Daheeh,” this article highlights the different ways humor can impact people in times of crisis. 

COVID-19 Outcomes Among Pregnant and NonPregnant Women at Reproductive Age in Egypt
Journal of Public Health, December 2021
Based on a study conducted in Egypt, this article finds that pregnant women with COVID-19 are at higher risk of severe symptoms and outcomes including ICU admission, requiring a ventilator, and death.

Cash and Payments in Egypt during the Covid-19 Pandemic
Cash Essentials, 8 December 2021
This article discusses how different indicators of Egypt’s cash and payment wellbeing were impacted by the pandemic. 

Iraq

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Capturing the Impact of COVID-19 on Construction Projects in Developing Countries: A Case Study of Iraq
Journal of Management in Engineering, 1 January 2022
Based on a case study of Iraq, this article studies the impact of COVID-19 on the construction markets. It shows that supply chain disruptions, workforce restrictions and legislative changes were relevant factors. 

Potential Adverse Effects of COVID19 Vaccines Among Iraqi Population; a Comparison between the Three Available Vaccines in Iraq; a Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study
Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research & Reviews, October 2021
Based on a study conducted in Iraq, this article evaluates and compares the respective side effects of various COVID-19 vaccines.

COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy and Acceptance Among Medical Students: An Online Cross-Sectional Study in Iraq
Macedonian Journal of Medical Sciences, 9 November 2021
The articles assesses levels of vaccine hesitancy among medical students at the University of Baghdad. 

Jordan

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COVID-19: Rapid Food Security and Agri-Food Sector Country Assessment for Jordan
FAO, Date Unspecified
This FAO report studies the impact of the pandemic on the agricultural and food sectors in Jordan. It shows how government regulations have mitigated the negative effects of the pandemic on agriculture. 

Jordan's Public Policy Response to COVID-19 Pandemic: Insight and Policy Analysis
Public Organization Review, 6 October 2021
This article employs an interpretive policy approach to understand the Jordanian government’s response to the pandemic. 

Reported COVID-19 Vaccines Side Effects Among Jordanian Population: a Cross Sectional Study
Human Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics, 6 October 2021
Based on a survey study conducted in Jordan, this paper describes the side effects of COVID-19 vaccines, namely AstraZeneca, Pfizer and Sinopharm. 

Prevalence of COVID-19 Among Blood Donors
Medical Journal, 15 October 2021
This article evaluates the prevalence of COVID-19 antibodies at a blood banking facility in Jordan and describes some characteristics of those that test positive. 

2021 Assessment of the Impact of COVID-19 on Vulnerable Women in Jordan
United Nations, 27 October 2021
This UN Women report assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on UN Women Oasis Centre beneficiaries with respect to economic status, safety and access to health services, and other factors. [Arabic]

Pregnancy Outcomes during the Jordanian COVID-19 National Lockdown
BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth, 10 November 2021
Based on a study conducted in Jordan, this article finds that during the COVID-19 lockdown period, the number of infants born with extremely low birth weight decreased significantly.

Jordan Economic Monitor, Fall 2021: En Route to Recovery
World Bank, December 2021
This World Bank report takes note of Jordan’s economic recovery after the shock of the COVID-19 pandemic but warns of economic and international factors that will continue challenging the country’s recovery efforts. 

Covid-19 and the Social Construction of Reality in Jordan
Comparative Sociology, 10 December 2021
This article studies Jordan’s experience with the pandemic to advance the argument that the social construction of reality sometimes requires coercive intervention.

Royal Jordanian Airlines Asks for A $282 Million COVID Bailout
Simple Flying, 28 December 2021
Royal Jordanian Airlines is seeking government aid after having been hit hard by travel restrictions in the wake of the pandemic. 

Effects of Stay-at-Home (Curfew) as a Result of COVID-19 Pandemic on Obesity, Depression and Physical Activity in People Living in Jordan
Nutritional Medicine and Diet Care, 31 December 2021
This article analyzes the effects of stay-at-home measures in Jordan on obesity, depression, and physical activities. 

Kuwait

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Impacts of COVID-19 on Kuwait’s Electric Power Grid
The Electricity Journal, November 2021
This article presents a resource adequacy model developed to assess Kuwait’s ability to supply enough energy to meet load demand during the coronavirus outbreak.

The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait
Frontiers in Public Health, 22 November 2021
Based on data from Kuwait, this article studies the effectiveness of strict public health control measures in limiting COVID-19 transmission.

Attitude (Acceptance) of the COVID-19 Vaccine among Adult Kuwait Oil Company Workers
Open Journal of Internal Medicine, December 2021
This paper measures the acceptance of a COVID-19 vaccine among adults working in oil companies in Kuwait. Of the surveyed participants, 92.5 percent demonstrated a willingness to receive a COVID-19 vaccine.

Determinants of Hesitancy Towards COVID-19 Vaccines in State of Kuwait: An Exploratory Internet-Based Survey
Risk Management and Healthcare Policy, 14 December 2021
Applying a snowball sampling method to test attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccinations among adults in Kuwait, this article finds that 74.3 percent of participants were hesitant to receive a vaccine.

Lebanon

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Costly and Unsustainable: Where Lebanon’s COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign Went Wrong
The Public Source, 11 October 2021
This article from The Public Source evaluates COVID-19 vaccination efforts in Lebanon. Only 19.5 percent of the population was fully vaccinated, the article reports.   

Data with Borders for a Borderless Virus: Insights and Recommendations from the Case of Lebanon
Arab Reform Initiative, 19 October 2021
This Arab Reform Initiative paper underscores the importance of timely access to complete and accurate data as crucial for an evidence-based national public health response. It shows that the fragmentation of publicly available data in Lebanon across many official reporting sources has mired COVID-19 data in the country. 

High Association of COVID-19 Severity with Poor Gut Health Score in Lebanese Patients
PLOS ONE, 21 October 2021
Based on a study conducted in Lebanon, this article explores the links between gut health and the severity of COVID-19 symptoms.

Barriers to Refugee and Migrant COVID-19 Vaccination in Lebanon Persist
Global Campus of Human Rights, 28 October 2021
Favoritism in Lebanon’s COVID-19 vaccine roll-out and limited access to information and resources continue to limit vaccination rates among refugee and migrant groups.

Phased Repatriation of Lebanese Expatriates Stranded Abroad during Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic
Archives of Public Health, November 2021
Stranded Lebanese citizens abroad appealed to the Lebanese government to embark on citizen repatriation missions. This article evaluates Lebanon’s experience in repatriating citizens in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

A Retrospective Analysis of 902 Hospitalized COVID‐19 Patients in Lebanon: Clinical Epidemiology and Risk Factors
Journal of Clinical Virology Plus, December 2021
This article studies the clinical epidemiology of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in Lebanon. It describes the characteristics and outcomes of hospitalized patients and identifies risk factors for severe disease or death.

Online Education in Lebanon During the Covid-19 Crisis: An Ongoing Coping Phase
Digital Economy, Emerging Technologies and Business Innovation, 10 December 2021
Based on survey data, this article analyzes the needs and the gaps of Online teaching in Lebanon. 

Mapping Covid-19 Governance in Lebanon: Territories of Sectarianism and Solidarity
Middle East Law and Governance, 26 December 2021
This article argues that the governance of the pandemic in Lebanon reveals tensions between powerful political parties, weakened public agencies, as well as multiple solidarity groups with diverging aspirations. The article demonstrates that the Covid-19 response in Lebanon operates through ongoing negotiations over the national territory in which timid yet visible aspirations for a non-sectarian country confront sectarian territorialities through back-and-forth cycles.

Libya

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“COVID-19 Has Only Made Gender-Based Violence More Glaring in Libya”
United Nations, Date Unspecified
Part of the “Expert Platform on Gender and Preventing and Countering Violent Extremism in North Africa”, this UN Women Expert Interview brings attention to gender-based violence in Libya in light of COVID-19.

Acceptance of COVID-19 Vaccine Among the People of Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar District in Libya as of April 2021
Asian Journal of Basic Science and Research, 14 December 2021
This study evaluates the frequency of the acceptance of COVID-19 vaccine in Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar, Libya.

Mauritania

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Roadmap for a More Inclusive and Fiscally Sustainable Post-COVID Economy in Mauritania
World Bank, 22 October 2021
This World Bank article offers an overview for the impact of the pandemic on the economy in Mauritania and offers recommendations and projections for a post-COVID economic recovery plan.

Morocco 

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Pandemic Exposes Vulnerabilities in Moroccan Economy
Financial Times, 11 October 2021
This Financial Times article provides a holistic overview of the Moroccan economy with a specific focus on the impact of the pandemic on it. It reports IMF projections that the Moroccan economy will grow by 4.5 percent in 2021 but also sheds light on vulnerabilities that the pandemic exposed in the Moroccan economy such as the fragility of the tourism sector and the dependency of a large segment of the population on the informal economy.

Morocco’s Monetary Policy Transmission in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic
IMF, 21 October 2021
This IMF working paper assesses monetary policy in Morocco in light of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Acceptability of COVID-19 Vaccination Among Health Care Workers: a Cross-Sectional Survey in Morocco
Human Vaccines and Immunotherapeutics, 29 October 2021
This study evaluates the acceptability of COVID-19 vaccination among health care workers prior to the start of the COVID-19 vaccination campaign in Morocco. It shows a relatively high rate of the COVID-19 vaccination acceptance among health care workers in Morocco. Willingness to be vaccinated was significantly associated with job category, confidence in the information circulating about COVID-19, and perceived severity of COVID19.

Resverlogix Holds Discussions with Morocco to start Covid-19 Drug Trial
Pharmaceutical Technology, 2 November 2021
Resverlogix is holding talks with the Ministry of Health of the Kingdom of Morocco to conduct Phase II clinical trials of its drug for Covid-19. The company obtained approval from Health Canada to conduct trials of the drug in the country.

Focus Report: The Post-Pandemic Recovery of the Moroccan Economy
Oxford Business Group, 7 December 2021
This Oxford Business Group report details economic opportunities in key sectors in Morocco. The report attributes the opportunities to the country's digitalization strategy and accelerated digital transformation in response to COVID-19. The report also examines Morocco's approach to adopting environmental, social and governance principles and includes a case study on Morocco Now, the country’s new investment and export brand.

COVID-19 Vaccination Acceptance Among Health Science Students in Morocco: A Cross-Sectional Study
Vaccines (Basel), 8 December 2021
Based on a January 2021 online questionnaire conducted among students of the Mohammed VI University of Health Sciences in Casablanca, this article reports that students with greater confidence in COVID-19 information, and higher perceived likelihood and perceived severity of infection were more likely to be willing to get the vaccine.

Tuberculosis in the Middle of COVID-19 in Morocco: Efforts, Challenges and Recommendations
Tropical Medicine and Health, 20 December 2021
This article examines efforts in Morocco to get back on track with regard to TB management after the onset of COVID-19.

A Laboratory-Based Study of COVID-19 in Casablanca, Morocco
Journal of Public Health in Africa, 31 December 2021
Based on a study conducted in Morocco, this article examines the contribution of laboratory diagnosis to the detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the diagnosis of COVID-19.

Oman

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The Role of Children and Adolescents in the Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Virus within Family Clusters: A Large Population Study from Oman
Journal of Infection and Public Health, November 2021
This study investigates the role of children in spreading SARS-CoV-2 causing COVID-19 within family clusters in Oman.

The Economic and Social Impact of COVID-19 on Tourism and Hospitality Industry: A Case Study from Oman
Wiley Journal of Public Health, 9 November 2021
This article investigates the economic and social impacts of COVID-19 on the tourism and hospitality sector of Oman based on data collected from business owners.

Challenges and Opportunities for Public Health Service in Oman from the COVID-19 Pandemic: Learning Lessons for a Better Future
Frontiers in Public Health, 9 December 2021
This article provides a narrative review of Oman's public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic from January 2020 to July 2021, and the challenges it faced for a more rapid and efficient response. 

Impact of COVID-19 Crisis on Knowledge Management Practices in Sultanate of Oman
Electronic Journal of Knowledge Management, 15 December 2021
This article identifies various changes made to knowledge management (KM) practices implemented by organizations in the Sultanate of Oman following the onset of the COVID-19 crisis.  

Palestine

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Israel: Ensure Full Access to COVID-19 Vaccines in the Occupied Palestinian Territory
International Commission of Jurists, 5 October 2021
This ICJ report underscores vaccine inequality in Israel and Palestine demonstrating the vast disparity in access to vaccines between Israel’s and Palestine’s populations. 

The Association of Social Factors and COVID-19–Related Resource Loss with Depression and Anxiety Among Arabs in Israel
Psychological Trauma: Theory, Research, Practice, and Policy, 7 October 2021
This article examines experiences of resource loss, social exclusion, ethnic discrimination, and social support and their association with depression and anxiety symptoms during the COVID-19 outbreak among Arabs in Israel. Results highlight the importance of developing and implementing context-informed health and social care policies and practices, especially in this time of crisis.

Acceptance of COVID-19 Vaccines in Palestine: a Cross-Sectional Online Study
BMJ Public Health Emergency Collection, October 7, 2021
This study aims to assess the willingness of Palestinians to receive a COVID-19 vaccine and their knowledge about such vaccines.

Fear of Coronavirus (COVID-19) and Mental Health Outcomes in Palestine: The Mediating Role of Social Support
Current Psychology, 20 October 2021
This article tests the correlation between fear due to coronavirus (COVID-19) and mental health outcomes (stress, depression, and anxiety) and the mediating role of social support during the Covid-19 Pandemic in Palestine. 

Lessons of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict for Public Health: The Case of the COVID-19 Vaccination Gap
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, November 2021
This article explores the importance of recognizing the Israeli and Palestinian jurisdictions as a single epidemiological unit and illustrates how doing so is a pragmatic positioning that can serve self-interest.

Conflict and Cooperation in the Age of COVID-19: the Israeli–Palestinian Case
International Affairs, 1 November 2021
This article uses the Israeli–Palestinian conflict during the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study, exploring the impact of the crisis on relations between the rival parties and examining the conditions under which an ongoing pandemic might lead to either conflict or cooperation in a conflict area.

Economic Monitoring Report to the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee
World Bank, 17 November  2021
The World Bank report notes that the Palestinian economy started to recover, especially due to the progress witnessed in the West Bank. Gaza on the other hand is still dealing with the economic crisis with rising unemployment rates and deteriorating social conditions. [Arabic]

Prevalence of Depression, Anxiety and Stress during the COVID-19 Pandemic: a Cross Sectional Study among Palestinian Students(10-18 years)
BMC Psychology, 30 November 2021
The article identifies psychological distress among school students during the lockdown period based on a study carried out in the Gaza Strip in Palestine.

Qatar

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Report: Covid-19's Long-Term Implications for Qatar’s External Trade and Maritime Logistics
Oxford Business Group, 1 October 2021
This Oxford Business Group report looks at COVID-19’s impact on Qatar’s economy and especially on its external trade sector. It shows that Qatar was able to tap international debt markets to fund an effective economic response to the pandemic, while its relatively small population was well served by a modern health care system guided by clear government policy geared towards prevention as well as treatment. The report attributes this success to the state’s oil wealth.

BNT162b2 and mRNA-1273 COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Against the SARS-CoV-2 Delta Variant in Qatar
Nature Medicine, 2 November 2021
This article assesses the real-world effectiveness of COVID-19 messenger RNA vaccines against Delta variant infections in Qatar's population.

Attitudes and Intentions toward COVID-19 Vaccination among Health Professions Students and Faculty in Qatar
Vaccines, 3 November 2021
This article examines the impact of psychological and sociodemographic factors on attitudes toward and intentions to take the COVID-19 vaccine among students and faculty at four colleges of health professions and sciences at Qatar University.

Predictors of Psychological Distress in Health Care Staff in Qatar during COVID-19 Pandemic
Pakistan Journal of Medical Sciences, December 2021
This study assesses mental health symptoms experienced by expatriate hospital staff and determines the impact of staff wellbeing interventions specific to pandemic-related stress in Qatar during the coronavirus outbreak.

Impact of Staying at Home Measures during COVID-19 Pandemic on the Lifestyle of Qatar’s Population: Perceived Changes in Diet, Physical Activity, and Body Weight
Preventive Medicine Reports, December 2021
This study assesses the impact of staying at home measures imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic on dietary behaviors, physical activity, and body weight in Qatar’s population. Half of the participants perceived some weight gain during staying-at-home measures and one-third perceived that their overall diet became less healthy with home confinement.

Waning of BNT162b2 Vaccine Protection against SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Qatar
The New England Journal of Medicine, 9 December 2021
Based on a study conducted in Qatar, this study investigated vaccine-induced protection against severe SARS-COV-2 infection and hospitalization.

Saudi Arabia

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The Psychological and Emotional Impact of Coronavirus Disease on COVID-19 Patients in Najran Province, Saudi Arabia: An Exploratory Study
Journal of Public Health Research, 8 October 2021
This article explores the psychological impact experienced by patients who tested positive from coronavirus in the Najran region in Saudi Arabia. The study revealed that the majority of participants had high levels of depression, anxiety and bothersome behaviors.

Lifestyle Behaviors Trend and Their Relationship with Fear Level of COVID-19: Cross-Sectional Study in Saudi Arabia
PLOS ONE, 13 October 2021
This article assesses the association between various lifestyle behaviors and their association with fear of COVID-19 in people living in Saudi Arabia.

Inequalities in Knowledge About COVID-19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Frontiers in Public Health, 15 October 2021
This study assesses the socioeconomic inequalities in knowledge regarding COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia.

Knowledge and Attitude of Saudi Arabian Citizens towards Telemedicine during the COVID-19 Pandemic
International Health, 6 December 2021
This article investigates the knowledge and attitudes of Saudi Arabian citizens towards telemedicine during the COVID-19 pandemic.  

Impact of COVID-19 on Saudi Arabia's Economy: Evidence from Macro-Micro Modelling
PSU Research Review, 7 December 2021
This article evaluates the impact of COVID-19 on Saudi Arabia’s economy, with a special focus on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and production. 

The Contribution of Saudi Arabian Scholars to the Literature on COVID-19: A Bibliometric Study
Science and Technology Libraries, 13 December 2021
This paper reports the findings of Saudi researchers’ academic performance on the topic of COVID-19.

Saudi Arabia Experience in Implementing Telemental Health during COVID-19 Pandemic
Saudi Journal of Health Systems Research, 21 December 2021
This article assesses Saudi Arabis’ experience with telemental health since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Somalia

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Excess Mortality during the COVID-19 Pandemic: a Geospatial and Statistical Analysis in Mogadishu, Somalia
International Journal of Infectious Diseases, October 2021
This article shows that COVID-19 deaths in Somalia were at least thirty-two times higher than the figures reported by the government during the early months of the pandemic.

What Resilient Somali Residents are Telling Us About COVID-19 and Economic Recovery
World Bank, 20 December 2021
The World Bank has collaborated with the Somalia National Bureau of Statistics to conduct two rounds of phone surveys already, with the third round under preparation. In January 2021, the survey team reached 1,756 people by phone throughout Somalia.

Sudan

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COVID-19 and Sudan: The Impact on Economic and Social Rights in the Context of a Fragile Democratic Transition and Suspended Constitutionalism
Journal of African Law, 22 October 2021
This article argues that the lockdown imposed in Sudan due to the COVID-19 pandemic has seriously affected the livelihood of vulnerable populations.

Exploring Challenges to COVID-19 Vaccination in the Darfur Region of Sudan
The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 10 November 2021
This article assesses the difficulties challenging vaccination efforts in the Darfur region of Sudan, such as lack of vaccine storage and transportation facilities, vaccination hesitancy, inequity in the distribution to health facilities, and shortage of healthcare professionals.

Sudan Coup Prompts Fresh Health and Humanitarian Fears
The Lancet, 13 November 2021
This article explores the impact of the coup in Sudan on health and humanitarian conditions. Medicine, food, and fuel shortages could deepen further in Sudan after a military coup sparked large pro-democracy protests and threatened further economic instability.

Rapid Assessment of the Socio-Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic with a Focus on Khartoum, West Kordofan and East Darfur, Sudan
ILO, 8 December 2021
This ILO report assesses the impact of COVID-19 on income and employment, businesses, access to basic services, social protection, social cohesion.

Sudan: Media Laws Drafted during COVID-19 Don’t Meet Free Speech Standards
Article 19, 17 December 2021
This Article-19 legal analysis examines Sudan’s draft media laws, indicating that they failed to meet international freedom of expression standards. The document  expresses concern that these draft laws have been put forward in times where the response to the COVID-19 pandemic has added new challenges to the media to operate in a pluralistic and safe environment.  

Syria

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Effects of COVID-19-Related Life Changes on Mental Health in Syrian Refugees in Turkey
BJPsych Open Journal, 1 October 2021
This article examines the association between COVID-19 and changes in mental health in Syrian refugees in Turkey.

COVID-19 Vaccination Acceptance Among Syrian Population: a Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study
BMC Public Health, 18 November 2021
This article investigates the determinants of vaccine acceptance among Syrians.

COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance in Older Syrian Refugees: Preliminary Findings from an Ongoing Study
Preventive Medicine Reports, December 2021
This article reports that a third of older Syrian refugees had no intention to receive the COVID-19 vaccine. 

Syrian Government’s Obstruction of Humanitarian Aid Pushes Health Systems to “Near Collapse” in Northern Syria: PHR Report
Physicians for Human Rights, 15 December 2021
This Physicians for Human Rights report provides evidence of compounded health disparities and inequities across northern Syria in the wake of a decade-long assault on health care by the government. [Arabic]

Tunisia

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Detection of SARS-CoV-2 in the Sewerage System in Tunisia: a Promising Tool to Confront COVID-19 Pandemic
Future Virology, 14 October 2021
This study undertaken in Tunisia examines the use of wastewater to monitor SARS-CoV-2 circulation. The increased amounts of viral RNA detected in wastewater were accompanied by an increase in the number of COVID-19 patients in Tunisia. Results emphasize the importance of sewage surveys in SARS-CoV-2 tracking.

Rapid Labour Force Survey on the Impact of COVID-19 in Tunisia: Third Wave
ILO, 18 October 2021
This ILO report summarizes the key findings of the third wave of rapid labor force surveys conducted by ILO and Economic Research Forum in Tunisia to monitor the impact of COVID-19 on households, household enterprises, and farmers.

Assessment of COVID-19 Vaccine Literacy Among Cancer Patients: A Cross Sectional Tunisian Study
European Journal of Public Health, 20 October 2021
This study assesses COVID-19 vaccine literacy among cancer patients in Tunisia. Vaccine literacy among cancer patients included in this study is weak.

From Democratic Exception to State of Exception: Covid-19 in the Context of Tunisia’s State of Law
Middle East Law and Governance, 26 October 2021
Through an analysis of the early legal and institutional response to Covid-19 in Tunisia, this article demonstrates that the narrative of Tunisia’s democratic exceptionalism following the 2011 revolution is not translated into a liberal legal practice but is instead upheld by an authoritarian rationale that serves the role of a formal channel that legitimizes power discourse.

COVID-19 Vaccination Acceptance and Its Associated Factors among Cancer Patients in Tunisia
Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention, 1 November 2021
This article assesses the acceptance rate of COVID-19 vaccination among Tunisian cancer patients and investigates its associated factors.

Impact of Covid-19 on the Rights of Minorities and ‘Minoritized’ Populations: Consultation with Civil Society
Minority Rights Group International, 1 December 2021
This study focuses on the impact of the pandemic on minorities and ‘minoritized’ populations in Tunisia, namely the Amazigh population, disabled persons, the LGBTQI+ community, black Tunisian citizens, Sub-Saharan migrants and religious minorities.

Psychological Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Healthcare Professionals in Tunisia: Risk and Protective Factors
Frontiers in Psychology, 14 December 2021
This study evaluates the magnitude of different psychological outcomes among Tunisian healthcare professionals (HCPs) during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tunisia: Authorities Must Halt Implementation of Overly Restrictive Vaccine Pass
Amnesty International, 21 December 2021
Amnesty International released a statement calling the new Tunisian decree-law that introduces the new vaccination passport “overly restrictive”. The statement discusses several ways the decree-law will worsen inequalities and promote injustices.

Effectiveness of an Online Positive Psychology Intervention among Tunisian Healthcare Students on Mental Health and Study Engagement during the Covid-19 Pandemic
Applied Psychology: Health and Well-Being, 22 December 2021
This article assesses the effectiveness of an eight-week internet-based positive psychology intervention for healthcare students in Tunisia.

UAE

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COVID-19 Crisis Management: Lessons From the United Arab Emirates Leaders
Frontiers in Public Health, 29 October 2021
This study analyzes the UAE response to the COVID-19 crisis through the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's Strategic Crisis Management Framework.

COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance Among Healthcare Workers in the United Arab Emirates
IJID Regions, December 2021
This article investigates coronavirus vaccine hesitancy among healthcare workers in the UAE. UAE healthcare workers had a high acceptance rate (89.2%) for COVID-19 vaccines. Older individuals, males, physicians, and South Asians demonstrated higher rates of COVID-19 vaccine acceptance. The main reasons for COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy were safety and efficacy concerns.

Yemen

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Yemen’s Triple Emergency: Food Crisis Amid a Civil War and COVID-19 Pandemic
Health in Practice, November 2021
This article sheds light on the food crisis in Yemen amid the civil war and COVD-19 pandemic. It argues that while the most crucial step is to urge the leading Yemeni authorities to restart negotiations to end the war, the more urgent action is to demand the local authorities to join forces in addressing the COVID-19 pandemic by limiting their interferences toward the much-needed humanitarian assistance.

UN Women and ESCWA launch 3 studies on the impact of COVID-19 on women in Yemen
UN ESCWA, 2 December 2021
The United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA) and UN Women in Iraq and Yemen launched three studies assessing the impact of COVID-19 on the social, political and economic situation of women in Yemen. The studies are aimed at supporting the Government of Yemen and various stakeholders in addressing the challenges that women face and increasing the effectiveness of efforts towards gender equality in all sectors, in the era of COVID-19 and beyond.

The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) is pleased to announce that Amichai Magen has been selected as the inaugural Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies. Dr. Magen is currently the head of the MA program in Diplomacy and Conflict Studies, and director of the Program on Democratic Resilience & Development at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy, and Strategy at Reichman University, in Herzliya, Israel.

As a Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies, Dr. Magen will teach courses on Israeli politics, society, and policy, and also on his recent research regarding liberal orders, governance in areas of limited statehood, and political violence. In addition, he will help guide FSI programming related to Israel, advise and engage Stanford students and faculty.

An alumnus of Stanford Law School, where he obtained his JSD in 2008, he has also been a pre-doctoral scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) and a National Fellow at the Hoover Institution.

“I’ve had the pleasure of publishing a book with Amichai before, and can attest that he’s a first-rate scholar and academic,” said FSI Director Michael McFaul. “I recall a conversation between us when Amichai was a pre-doctoral fellow at CDDRL, and I told him that once you arrive at Stanford you spend the rest of your life trying to make it back here. I’m delighted that time will come soon.”

The son of refugees from Nazi Germany and Soviet-occupied Latvia, Dr. Magen's scholarship addresses the constitutive elements, vulnerabilities, and evolution of modern liberal political and legal orders – notably statehood, democracy, the rule of law, and regionalism – as well as Israel's place in such orders.

Dr. Magen’s current research examines limited statehood, governance failures, and political violence in the international system, and his book on the subject is forthcoming from Stanford University Press. During his time at Stanford, Dr. Magen will be based at FSI’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law.

“I am thrilled that CDDRL will have the opportunity to host and welcome back Dr. Amichai Magen,” said Kathryn Stoner, the Mosbacher Director of Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. “He was an outstanding contributor to the Center in its earliest days, and I know that he will be an outstanding inaugural Israel Fellow. I look forward to working with him again.”

In addition to his academic duties, Dr. Magen has also served on the executive committee of the World Jewish Congress, and is a board member of the International Coalition for Democratic Renewal, the Israel Council on Foreign Relations, and the Israeli Association for the Study of European Integration. He regularly briefs diplomats, journalists, and academics from around the world on Israeli political, constitutional, and geopolitical affairs.

“I am delighted to return to Stanford and engage with the many talented faculty and students on this unique campus,” said Dr. Magen. “FSI was my intellectual home as a graduate student at Stanford, and a model academic community that has shaped my subsequent career as a researcher and teacher. This is a real homecoming moment for me, and I am deeply grateful to be granted the opportunity to be a part of this wonderful community once again.”

The Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies program was launched in September 2021 with the generous support of Stanford alumni and donors. The search committee was led by Larry Diamond, the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at FSI, and included other senior fellows from throughout the institute.

“In developing and anchoring the program over the next three years, Amichai Magen will bring a brilliant scholarly mind, a great love of teaching, and broad expertise on Israeli politics, society, public policy, and regional relations,” said Diamond. “In addition, he will contribute greatly to the research work of CDDRL with his expertise on governance crises, limited statehood, and challenges to the liberal international order.”

In addition to Dr. Magen, the Visiting Fellow in Israel Studies program plans to bring a second Israeli visiting fellow to teach and conduct research during the next academic year. Media inquiries about the program can be directed to Ari Chasnoff, FSI’s associate director for communications.

Abstract

Latin American foreign-policy elites defend the principle of non-intervention to shield their countries’ autonomy. By 2005, however, most Latin American foreign policy elites accepted the easing of limits on the use of force in international law. They supported the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), which regulates the use of force to protect populations from mass atrocities. The paper presents a comparison of the Brazilian, Chilean, and Mexican positions in the R2P debates to understand why they supported this norm. During the debates leading to the emergence of R2P, these elites questioned a central premise of liberal internationalism: the idea that great powers would restrain their use of military force as part of their commitment to a liberal international order (LIO). Using Republican international political theory, I argue that these Latin American foreign-policy elites viewed a restricted humanitarian-intervention norm as a new defence against great powers interfering in developing countries. Instead of trusting that great powers would restrain their actions, these elites advocated for a humanitarian-intervention norm that would prevent uncontrolled humanitarian interventions.

Read the rest at Cambridge Review of International Affairs 

On February 24, Vladimir Putin launched the Russian military on what he termed a “special military operation,” his euphemism for a massive invasion of Ukraine. Two weeks later, the Russian military has fallen well short of expectations, in large part due to the Ukrainian army’s courage and tenacity.

The fighting could continue for weeks or longer, taking more lives on top of the thousands already lost. The Kremlin has expressed maximalist demands as the price for a cease-fire and did not react positively when Kyiv hinted at some readiness to compromise. The key question: Will Putin agree to a real negotiation, or will he continue to press on with his war of choice?

TWO WEEKS OF WAR

Putin justified the invasion with a host of falsehoods: People in Donbas in eastern Ukraine had “been facing humiliation and genocide;” Russia sought to “denazify Ukraine” as neo-Nazis had seized power in Kyiv; and Ukraine had gone “as far as to aspire to acquire nuclear weapons.” The lie that Kyiv sought nuclear weapons was particularly pernicious; in the 1990s, Ukraine gave up the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, inherited from the Soviet Union, in large part because Russia committed to respect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and to not use force against it.

The Russian army launched into Ukrainian territory from multiple directions. After two weeks, Russian forces have made progress in the south, occupying Kherson and isolating Mariupol. However, the Russians have had a more difficult time in the north. The Ukrainians repulsed the effort to make a quick grab of Kyiv and fought fiercely in defense of Chernihiv and Kharkiv.

The fighting has taken a large human toll. As of March 9, the United Nations estimated that more than 500 civilians have been killed (likely a vast undercount) and some 2.1 million refugees have fled the country, numbers that grow by the day, particularly as the Russian military conducts indiscriminate artillery and rocket attacks on major cities. The war has also cost Russia. Its Ministry of Defense reported on March 2 that some 500 Russian soldiers had been killed in action. On March 8, the Pentagon estimated, albeit with “low confidence,” that the war had claimed the lives of 2,000 to 4,000 Russians soldiers.

If the Kremlin was surprised by the underperformance of its military and the resolve of the Ukrainians, it was equally surprised by the Western reaction. NATO has deployed thousands of troops to the Baltic states, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria. The United States, European Union, Britain, Canada, and others, including Switzerland, Singapore, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand, slapped major financial and other sanctions on Russia, including on its central bank. The ruble crashed, and the central bank, anticipating the coming spike in inflation, doubled its key lending rate to 20%. On March 8, President Joe Biden announced that the United States would ban the import of oil, natural gas, and coal from Russia.

Perhaps most shocking to the Kremlin were the changes in Germany, which in one week swept away five decades of policy toward Russia. Berlin suspended the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline; reversed a policy of not supplying arms to conflict zones in order to send weapons to Ukraine; and dramatically raised defense spending. Germany will hit the NATO-agreed goal of 2% of gross domestic product devoted to defense in its next budget (as opposed to years later) and add a one-time plus-up of 100 billion euros for military needs, more than twice what the country spent on defense in 2021.

THE WAR GOING FORWARD

Russian military operations appear aimed at taking much or all of Ukraine east of a line running from Kyiv in the north to Odesa on the Black Sea. Russian ground forces have not yet entered the western third of the country. Russian units in the north appear to be preparing to attack Kyiv.

The Russian military’s operations plan to date has been described by one knowledgeable analyst as “bizarre” and not exploiting Russian advantages. That said, the Russian military, with some 125 battalion tactical groups in Ukraine, has mass and numbers. If mass and numbers determine who will win this war, Russia will prevail.

That raises the question of Putin’s political goal. If the Russians defeat the Ukrainian military and take Kyiv, Putin presumably wants to put in place a pro-Russian government. Sustaining that government, however, would almost certainly require occupation by Russian military and security forces. They would face a population that is angry, nationalistic and, in many cases, armed — and that would resist. Such an occupation could prove a major drain on an economically weakened Russia.

However, wars are about more than numbers. By all appearances, Ukrainians are highly motivated and determined, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has come into his own as a true and inspiring wartime leader. For now, the question of Russia prevailing remains an “if,” not a “when.” If the Ukrainians hold out, one outcome could be stalemate, with continued fighting but neither side able to dislodge the other. If the military costs pile up on the Russian side, the Kremlin retains the option — though Putin would not want to exercise it — of calling it quits and going home, perhaps somehow proclaiming victory.

A NEGOTIATED SETTLEMENT?

The Kremlin press spokesman on March 7 laid out a set of demands for a halt to Russian military actions: Ukraine should cease military operations, agree to neutrality and put that in its constitution, accept that Crimea is part of Russia, and recognize the independence of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” in Donbas. Left unspoken, but almost certainly on the list, is a new government in Kyiv and a prior demand for demilitarization.

It is difficult to see the Zelenskyy government accepting these demands, which might buy it only a cease-fire. (If it did, many Ukrainians could well continue the fight.) Still, on March 8, Zelenskyy suggested he might no longer press for NATO membership and was open to “compromise” on Donbas. He said he would not accept ultimatums and called for a real dialogue with Moscow.

The Kremlin gave no positive reaction to Zelenskyy’s comments. Nothing came from a March 10 meeting between Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Turkey. If Moscow showed interest in a true negotiation with Kyiv, the United States and NATO could also renew their offers to negotiate on arms control, risk reduction, and transparency measures that could make a genuine contribution to European security, including Russia’s. The West could also make clear that, if Russian forces left Ukraine, there would be sanctions relief (though the West might retain some sanctions in place to ensure Moscow’s follow-up).

A settlement effort thus could proceed along three tracks: a negotiation between Kyiv and Moscow, a negotiation on measures to enhance Europe’s security, and a discussion of sanctions relief. Yet those tracks can go nowhere absent a change in the Kremlin’s approach.

Will Putin rethink his objectives? On his current course, a military “victory” would appear to entail a years- or decades-long occupation of a hostile, anti-Russian Ukraine, political isolation from most of the world, and economic sanctions that will devastate the Russian economy. One would think there has to be a better option.

Originally for Brookings Order from Chaos Blog