International Relations

FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

Foreign aid is also examined by scholars trying to understand whether money earmarked for health improvements reaches those who need it most. And FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center has published on the need for strong South Korean leadership in dealing with its northern neighbor.

FSI researchers also look at the citizens who drive international relations, studying the effects of migration and how borders shape people’s lives. Meanwhile FSI students are very much involved in this area, working with the United Nations in Ethiopia to rethink refugee communities.

Trade is also a key component of international relations, with FSI approaching the topic from a slew of angles and states. The economy of trade is rife for study, with an APARC event on the implications of more open trade policies in Japan, and FSI researchers making sense of who would benefit from a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.

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Flyer for a webinar about U.S.-China relations with portraits of speaker Laura Stone and moderator Jean Oi.

This event is part of APARC’s 2022 Fall webinar seriesAsian Perspectives on the US-China Competition.

The China Program brings Inaugural China Policy Fellow Laura Stone to provide on the ground views of what the U.S.-China competition means for the region. As Asia perspectives on U.S.-China competition and Chinese intentions in the region develop and change, Laura will give us insights into how Washington stakeholders’ understanding of these perspectives has shifted and evolved. In a complex iterative process, Chinese and U.S. actions — and the reactions from the countries and countries and entities in Asia — shape a dynamic policy process within the region.

Speaker

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Laura Stone2
Laura Stone joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) as Visiting Scholar and Inaugural China Policy Fellow for the 2022-2023 academic year. She was formerly the Acting Deputy Assistant Secretary for China and Mongolia, the Director of the Office of Chinese and Mongolian Affairs, and the Director of the Economic Policy Office in the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs. She served three tours in Beijing as well as tours in Bangkok, Tokyo, the Public Affairs Bureau, the Pentagon Office of the Secretary of Defense, and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research. Most recently, she serves the U.S. Department of State as Deputy Coordinator for the Secretary's Office for COVID Response and Health Security. While at APARC, she will be conducting research with the China Program and Professor Jean Oi regarding contemporary China affairs and U.S.-China policy.

Jean C. Oi

Virtual event via Zoom

Laura M. Stone
Seminars
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Seminar Recording

About the Event: In this seminar, energy and natural resources sector policies of the three former communist countries in Asia - Mongolia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan - in close geographic proximity to Russia and China will be considered. There are similarities in the nature of transition from communist regime to democratic societies in these three states, although major differences in social and cultural issues exist. The reliance on energy in neighboring countries Russia and China as well as export of raw materials to these markets have major influence on specific policy agenda. Particular attention is given to energy minerals and trade balance and imbalance thereof. 

About the Speaker: Dr. Undraa Agvaanluvsan currently serves as the president of Mitchell Foundation for Arts and Sciences. She is also an Asia21 fellow of the Asia Society and co-chair of Mongolia chapter of the Women Corporate Directors, a global organization of women serving in public and private corporate boards. During 2021-22, she served on the WCD Global Committee on Diversity and Inclusion. Dr. Undraa Agvaanluvsan is a former Member of Parliament of Mongolia and the chair of the Parliamentary subcommittee on Sustainable Development Goals. Prior to being elected as a legislator, she served as an Ambassador-at-large in charge of nuclear security issues at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Mongolia, where she worked on nuclear energy and fuel cycle, uranium and rareearth minerals development policy. She is a nuclear physicist by training, obtained her PhD at North Carolina State University, USA and diploma in High Energy Physics at the International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy. She conducted research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, USA and taught energy policy at International Policy Studies Program at Stanford University, where she was a Science fellow and visiting professor at Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation. She published more than 90 papers, conference proceedings, and articles on neutron and proton induced nuclear reactions, the nuclear level density and radiative strength functions, quantum chaos and the Random Matrix Theory, including its application to the modeling of electric-grid resilience.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Undraa Agvaanluvsan
Seminars
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Seminar Recording

About the Event: We cannot understand much of anything about power politics without morality. Yet up to this point we have tried to do just that. By turning our attention to how states respond to being wronged rather than when they do right and realizing the moral basis of the groups that interact in foreign affairs, I show that morality is virtually everywhere in international relations – in the perception of threat, the persistence of conflict, the judgment of domestic audiences, and the articulation of expansionist goals. The inescapability of our moral impulses owes to their evolutionary origins in helping individuals solve recurrent problems in their anarchic environment. Rather than a transcendence of material reality, morality is material reality. 

About the Speaker: Brian C. Rathbun is Professor of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Southern California. He is the author of four other books on international affairs and is a distinguished scholar of the International Studies Association. His latest book with Cambridge University Press, Reasoning of State, won the 2020 award for best book on foreign policy from the American Political Science Association.

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Brian Rathbun University of Southern California
Seminars
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The Trans-Pacific Sustainability Dialogue convenes social science researchers and scientists from Stanford University and across the Asia-Pacific region, alongside student leaders, policymakers, and practitioners, to accelerate progress on achieving the United Nations-adopted 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The conference aims to generate new research and policy partnerships to expedite the implementation of the Agenda's underlying framework of 17 Sustainable Development Goals.

The two-day event is held in Seoul, South Korea, on October 27 and 28, 2022 Korea Standard Time, and is free and open to the public.

Registration is now open for in-person attendees. The conference is also offered online. Watch the live webcast from this page below (session available in English and Korean) and follow the conversation on Twitter: @StanfordSAPARC #AsiaSDGs2022.

The Dialogue's main hosts and organizers are Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) and the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future. The co-hosts are the Korea Environment Institute (KEI) and Ewha Womans University. The co-organizers include the Natural Capital Project (NatCap) of Stanford University, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea, Korea Environmental Industry and Technology Institute (KEITI), Korea Environment Corporation (K-eco), and Korea Water Resources Corporation (K-water).

Day 1 Livestream (English)

Day 1 Livestream (Korean)

Day 2 Livestream: Expert Panel (English)

Day 2 Livestream: Expert Panel (Korean)

Day 2 Livestream: Student Panel (English)

NOTE: The times below are all in Korean Standard Time.

DAY 1: THURSDAY, OCTOBER 27, 2022

Hosted by the Korea Environment Institute

Grand Ballroom​, The Plaza Seoul
119 Sogong-Ro, Jung-gu, Seoul


9:00 – 9:30 AM
Opening Session
Welcome remarks:
Ban Ki-moon, the 8th Secretary-General of the United Nations and Chairman of the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future
Gi-Wook Shin, Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and Korea Program, Professor of Sociology, William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University

Congratulatory remarks:
Kevin Rudd, former Prime Minister of Australia and Chief Executive Officer and President of the Asia Society (pre-recorded video message)
Han Duck-soo, Prime Minister of the Republic of Korea


Plenary 1
9:45 – 10:45 AM
World Leaders Session

Keynotes:
Ban Ki-moon, the 8th Secretary-General of the United Nations and Chairman of the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future
Iván Duque, former President of the Republic of Colombia (live video link)
Gombojav Zandanshatar, Chairman of the State Great Hural (Parliament) of Mongolia

Moderator:
Gi-Wook Shin, Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and Korea Program, Professor of Sociology, William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University


Plenary 2
11:00 AM – 12:15 PM
Climate Change Session

Organized by the Climate Change, Energy, Environment and Scientific Affairs Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea

Keynote: 
Henry Gonzalez, Deputy Executive Director of Green Climate Fund

Panelists: 
Nabeel Munir, Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to the Republic of Korea and Chair of the G77 at the United Nations
Hyoeun Jenny Kim, Ambassador and Deputy Minister for Climate Change, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea
Oyun Sanjaasuren, Director of External Affairs of Green Climate Fund

Moderator:
Tae Yong Jung, Professor of Sustainable Development at the Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University


12:15 – 1:30 PM

Lunch 
Hosted by the Korea Environment Institute

Welcome remarks:
Chang Hoon Lee, President of the Korea Environment Institute

Congratulatory remarks:
Kim Sang-Hyup, Co-Chairperson of the 2050 Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth Commission
Eun Mee Kim, President of Ewha Womans University, Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, and Director of the Ewha Global Health Institute for Girls and Women, Ewha Womans University


Plenary 3
1:30 – 2:45 PM
Multilateralism for a Resilient and Inclusive Recovery Towards the Achievement of the SDGs

Organized by the Development Cooperation Bureau of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Republic of Korea

Keynote: 
Hidehiko Yuzaki, Governor of Hiroshima Prefectural Government, Japan

Panelists:
Kaveh Zahedi, Deputy Executive Secretary, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN ESCAP) (live video link)
Kim Sook, Executive Director of the Ban Ki-moon Foundation For a Better Future and former Ambassador and Permanent Representative of the Republic of Korea to the United Nations
Won Doyeon, Director-General of the Development Cooperation Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea 

Moderator:
Eun Mee Kim, President of Ewha Womans University, Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, and Director of the Ewha Global Health Institute for Girls and Women, Ewha Womans University


Plenary 4
3:00 – 4:15 PM
KEI Green Korea: SDGs in North Korea

Organized by the Korea Environment Institute

Keynote: 
Sung Jin Kang, Professor of the Department of Economics and the Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Korea University

Panelists:
Habil Bernhard Seliger, Representative of Hanns Seidel Stiftung - Seoul Office, Republic of Korea (pre-recorded video message)
Ganbold Baasanjav, Head of Subregional Office for East and North-East Asia, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN ESCAP)
Haiwon Lee, Emeritus Professor of Hanyang University and President of Asian Research Network for Global Partnership

Moderator:
Chang Hoon Lee, President of the Korea Environment Institute


Plenary 5
4:30 – 5:30 PM
Valuing Nature to Achieve the SDGs

Organized by the Natural Capital Project of Stanford University

Keynote:
Gretchen Daily, Bing Professor of Environmental Science in the Department of Biology, Faculty Director of the Natural Capital Project, Director of the Center for Conservation Biology, and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University

Panelists:
Juan Pablo Bonilla, Manager of the Climate Change and Sustainable Development Sector, Inter-American Development Bank
Choong Ki Kim, Senior Research Fellow, Korea Environment Institute

Moderator:
Nicole Ardoin, Emmett Faculty Scholar and Associate Professor in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Sykes Family Director of the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University


DAY 2: FRIDAY, OCTOBER 28, 2022

Hosted by Ewha Womans University 
52 Ewhayeodae-gil, Seodaemun-gu, Seoul


Expert panels are held in Room B412
Student panels (see below) are held in Room B143
ECC, Ewha Womans University


9:00 – 9:15 AM
Opening Session for Expert Panels

Welcome remarks:
Eun Mee Kim, President of Ewha Womans University, Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, and Director of the Ewha Global Health Institute for Girls and Women, Ewha Womans University
Gretchen Daily, Bing Professor of Environmental Science in the Department of Biology, Faculty Director of the Natural Capital Project, Director of the Center for Conservation Biology, and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University


Expert Panel 1
9:15 – 10:30 AM
Livable, Sustainable Cities

Organized by the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center of Stanford University

Keynotes:
Park Heong-joon, Mayor of Busan Metropolitan City, Republic of Korea
Khurelbaatar Bulgantuya, Member of the State Great Hural (Parliament) of Mongolia and Chair of Sustainable Development Goals Sub-Committee of Parliament

Panelists:
Anne Guerry, Chief Strategy Officer and Lead Scientist at the Natural Capital Project, Stanford University
Perrine Hamel, Assistant Professor at the Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University

Moderator:
Kiyoteru Tsutsui, Deputy Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and Director of the Japan Program, Professor of Sociology, Henri H. and Tomoye Takahashi Professor of Japanese Studies, Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, and Director of the Center for Human Rights and International Justice, Stanford University


Expert Panel 2
11: 00 AM – 12:15 PM
Climate Change, Disaster Risks, and Human Security in Asia

Organized by Ewha Womans University

Panelists:
Juan M. Pulhin, Professor, Scientist, and former Dean of the College of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of the Philippines, Los Baños (live video link)
Rajib Shaw, Professor in the Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University
Brendan M. Howe, Professor and Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University
Rafael Schmitt, Lead Scientist at the Natural Capital Project, Stanford University

Moderator:
Jaehyun Jung, Assistant Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University


12:15 – 1:30 PM
Lunch 

Hosted by Ewha Womans University

Welcome remarks:
Eun Mee Kim, President of Ewha Womans University, Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, and Director of the Ewha Global Health Institute for Girls and Women, Ewha Womans University


Expert Panel 3
1:30 – 2:45 PM
Valuing Nature in Finance for Systems Transformation


Organized by the Natural Capital Project of Stanford University

Keynote:
Elías Albagli, Director of the Monetary Policy Division of the Central Bank of Chile

Panelists:
Qingfeng Zhang, Chief of Rural Development and Food Security (Agriculture) Thematic Group and Chief of Environment Thematic Group of the Sustainable Development and Climate Change Department, Asian Development Bank (live video link)
Tong Wu, Senior Scientist and Associate Director of the China Program at the Natural Capital Project, Stanford University

Moderator:
Chung Suh-Yong, Professor at the Division of International Studies of Korea University and Director of the Center for Climate and Sustainable Development Law and Policy of Seoul International Law Academy


Expert Panel 4
3:15 – 4:30 PM
Valuing Nature to Achieve Sustainable Development


Organized by the Natural Capital Project of Stanford University

Keynote:
Mary Ruckelshaus
, Director at the Natural Capital Project, Stanford University

Panelists:
James Salzman, Donald Bren Distinguished Professor of Environmental Law at the Bren School of Environmental Science & Management at the University of California, Santa Barbara and the School of Law at the University of California, Los Angeles
Yong-Deok Cho, General Director at K-water and Secretary General of the Asia Water Council

Moderator:
Alejandra Echeverri, Senior Scientist at the Natural Capital Project, Stanford University


9:00 – 9:15 AM
Opening Session for Student Panels

Welcome remarks:
Brendan M. Howe, Professor and Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University
Nicole Ardoin, Emmett Faculty Scholar and Associate Professor in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Sykes Family Director of the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University


Student Panel 1
9:15 – 10:30 AM
Green Financing and Sustainable Investments

Organized by Ewha Womans University

Panelists:
Assia Baric, PhD student, Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University
Siddharth Sachdeva, PhD student, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University
Sevde Arpaci Ayhan, PhD candidate, Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University 
Mae Luky Iriani, Master’s student, Department of International Relations, Universitas Katolik Parahyangan
Wu Qichun, PhD candidate, Asia-Europe Institute, University of Malaya

Moderator:
Hannah Jun
, Assistant Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University


Student Panel 2
11:00 AM – 12:15 PM
Gender Mainstreaming and Climate Governance

Organized by Ewha Womans University

Panelists:
Vimala Asty Fitra Tunggal Jaya, PhD student, Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University 
Liza Goldberg, Undergraduate student, Computer Science Department and Earth Systems Program of the Doerr School of Sustainability, Stanford University
Gahyung Kim, PhD candidate, Global Education Cooperation Program, Seoul National University
Maria Golda Hilario, Master’s student, College of Liberal Arts, De La Salle University 
Putri Ananda, Master’s student, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University

Moderator:
Minah Kang, Professor at the Department of Public Administration, Bioethics Policy Studies, and Department of International Studies, Ewha Womans University


Student Panel 3
1:30 – 2:45 PM
Development Cooperation for Sustainable Governance

Organized by Ewha Womans University

Panelists:
Elham Bokhari, PhD student, Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University 
Suzanne Xianran Ou, PhD candidate, Department of Biology, Stanford University
So Yeon Park, PhD student, Global Education Cooperation Program, Seoul National University 
Emmanuel O. Balogun, PhD candidate, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Stanford University
Darren Mangado, PhD student, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University
 
Moderator:
Jinhwan Oh, Professor of the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University


Student Panel 4
3:15 – 4:45 PM
Bringing Environmental Solutions to Scale Through a Business and Social Justice Lens

Organized by the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center of Stanford University

Panelists:
Patricia Aguado Gamero, PhD candidate, Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University
Sergio Sánchez López, PhD student, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University
Felicia Istad, PhD candidate in Public Policy, Department of Public Administration, Korea University 
Sardar Ahmed Shah, PhD student, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University 
Ma. Ella Calaor Oplas, PhD student in Development Studies and Faculty Member, School of Economics, De La Salle University
Shiina Tsuyuki, Undergraduate student, Keio University

Moderator:
Cheryll Alipio, Associate Director for Program and Policy of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, Stanford University


Closing Session 
5:00 – 5:30 PM
Readying Human Capital for Sustainable Development

Organized by the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center of Stanford University

Closing remarks:
Nicole Ardoin, Emmett Faculty Scholar and Associate Professor in the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability, Sykes Family Director of the Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University
Gi-Wook Shin, Director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and Korea Program, Professor of Sociology, William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea, and Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University
Brendan M. Howe, Professor and Dean of the Graduate School of International Studies, Ewha Womans University
Kim Bong-hyun, former Ambassador of the Republic of Korea to Australia, former President of Jeju Peace Institute, and Advisor to Mr. Ban Ki-moon, the 8th Secretary General of the United Nations at the Ban Ki-moon Foundation for a Better Future

Offered online via live webcast and in-person in Seoul, South Korea.

Day 1: October 27, 9 AM - 5:30 PM KST | Grand Ballroom, The Plaza Hotel, Seoul
Day 2: October 28, 9 AM - 5:30 PM KST | Room B412 (Expert Panels), Room B143 (Student Panels), ECC, Ewha Womans University

SCROLL DOWN TO WATCH THE LIVE WEBCAST

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Authors
Melissa Morgan
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Events on the ground in Ukraine are shifting quickly. In the east and south, the Ukrainian military continues to make progess on its counteroffensives. In Russia, thousands of draft-aged men have left the country in repsonse to the Kremlin's call for a limited mobilization. Across the NATO and the West, allied nations have reinforced their positions of solidarity and support for Ukraine.

To delve deeper into recent developments, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia and FSI Director Michael McFaul joined Ray Suarez for a special crossover episode of the World Class podcast and the World Affairs podcast. They spoke Just before Putin's military mobilization order on September 21 and discussed what the world can can expect from the war in Ukraine in the coming weeks and months, and how it may impact Russia's domestic politics and international standing.

Listen to the full episode here, or browse highlights from the conversation below.

Click the link for a transcript of "Putin's Failed War."

The following commentary from Michael McFaul has been excerpted from his original conversation and edited for length and clarity.


Russia and China’s Relationship


Publicly, there’s still support and solidarity between XI Jinping and Vladimir Putin. But we have to look at what’s happening between the lines. I think it’s pretty tense. At the most recent Shanghai Cooperation Summit in Kazakhstan, Putin acknowledged that one of his agenda items was to address Chinese concerns about what he called “the Ukraine crisis.”

“Concerns” is not a very friendly word. In the Russian readout of that meeting, Putin expressed his appreciation for Xi’s “balanced approach” to Russia’s operations in Ukraine.  But a “balanced approach” is hardly a big sign of support. In the Chinese readout of the meeting, Xi doesn’t even mention Ukraine.

Putin miscalculated. He miscalculated how the Ukrainians would fight. He miscalculated How the West would react. He's miscalculated how his own people have reacted. I think it will be the blunder that will erase his entire legacy.
Michael McFaul
FSI Director

I think the Chinese are shocked, quite frankly, by how poorly the Russian Armed Forces are performing. So many countries, China and the U.S. included, assumed that Russia had the world’s third most powerful military. But it turns out that just counting tanks and the GDP per capita spend on your military does not capture the full extent of its capabilities. If you’re China and you thought you had a loyal, powerful partner, I think this is raising a lot of doubts right now.


Conflict, Economics, and Energy


I have a hard time thinking of a single Russian living in Russia, who's benefiting from this war.

Some people say that sanctions aren’t working. Right now the aggregate numbers do look good for Russia, and that’s because the price of oil and gas went up as a result of their war. But that’s only a short-term gain.

Over 1,000 Western companies have left. That means the innovation, that technology that comes with those companies is also being pulling out. When Exxon Mobil pulled out of Russia, that means technology for their oil industry that we would have been seeing the results of for decades and the future is going to be lost.

While Putin is in power, I see no option whatsoever to go back to integration between Russia and the West. After Putin, we can prepare for that possibility. In the meantime, we have to do everything we can to make Ukraine successful.
Michael McFaul
FSI Director

And it’s important to remember that the biggest sanctions haven't come yet. Those will happen in December when the Europeans are going to reduce their imports of gas from Russia by a significant amount, and the G7 countries are going to lead an effort to put a price cap on all exports of Russian oil.

Russia thinks it can use energy to blackmail Europe and the West. I think they’ve miscalculated on this. I think they're underestimating the reaction many Europeans might have to being coerced. Nobody likes to be extorted. Nobody likes to be blackmailed.

I thinks it’s a basic psychological thing that when someone is trying to extort you, your response is not going to be, “Oh my goodness, we’ve got to lift sanctions and be friends with this guy that's freezing us.” I think it will be just the opposite, that people are going to be a little colder and be willing to pay a little more to get back at the guy who tired to do this to them.


The War Ahead


I sometimes get accused of being a warmonger. I see it exactly the opposite. Putin will not stop fighting until the Ukrainian army stops him on the battlefield. So if we really want peace in Ukraine, we must continue to arm the Ukrainians.

Putin has already radically failed in this conflict. He thought the Russian army would be embraced as liberators, and it didn’t happen. He thought he could take Kyiv, and it didn’t happen.

Nobody has done more to unify the Ukrainian people, nation, and culture than Vladimir Putin. I just wish it wasn't at such a tragic price.
Michael McFaul
FSI Director

This is a horrific war. The Russian Armed Forces attack civilian targets. That's terrorism. I'm not an expert; I don't know what the exact definition of terrorism is, but that feels like a terrorist act to me. They're not counter attacking the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They're literally trying to shut down the electricity grid and literally trying to drown people.

Putin doesn't care about basic human existence, and he's demonstrated that by the way he is fighting and by the way he is shipping innocent people into his country. He doesn't play by basic rules of the game that we thought were in place after 1945.

A month or two into the war, the Ukrainian government in Kyiv was talking in a much more limited way. Now that they've had these achievements and these victories, they're much more optimistic about their capabilities. And who are we to judge whether they're right or wrong? Because we've been wrong in judging their capabilities several times before. So, who am I to say, and who is anybody to say, that they don't have the capabilities to achieve these bigger objectives?

Michael McFaul, FSI Director

Michael McFaul

Director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
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A delegation from the NATO Parliamentary Assembly visits the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
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NATO Parliamentary Delegation Joins FSI Scholars for Discussion on Ukraine and Russia

FSI Director Michael McFaul, Kathryn Stoner, Francis Fukuyama, Scott Sagan, Anna Grzymala-Busse, and Marshall Burke answered questions from the parliamentarians on the conflict and its implications for the future of Ukraine, Russia, and the global community.
NATO Parliamentary Delegation Joins FSI Scholars for Discussion on Ukraine and Russia
Members of the Ukrainian military carry the flag of Ukraine during the 30th anniversary of the country's independence.
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What the Ukraine-Russia Crisis Says about the Global Struggle for Democracy

Former prime minister of Ukraine Oleksiy Honcharuk joins Michael McFaul on the World Class Podcast to analyze Russia's aggression towards Ukraine and how it fits into Vladamir Putin's bigger strategy to undermine democracy globally.
What the Ukraine-Russia Crisis Says about the Global Struggle for Democracy
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Vladimir Putin at a Victory Day rally in Moscow.
Vladimir Putin at a Victory Day rally in Moscow.
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To launch a new season of the World Class podcast, Michael McFaul discusses recent developments of the war in Ukraine and how those will impact Ukraine's future, Russia's standing in the world, and the responses of the global community.

Authors
Melissa Morgan
News Type
News
Date
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Against the backdrop of Ukraine's counteroffensive and the Kremlin's efforts to illegally annex additional territory, a delegation of members from the NATO Parliamentary Assembly arrived at Stanford to meet with experts and weigh considerations about the ongoing conflict. First on their circuit was a panel hosted by the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) chaired by FSI Director Michael McFaul, with Marshall Burke, Francis Fukuyama, Anna Grzymala-Busse, Scott Sagan, and Kathryn Stoner participating.

The delegates represented thirteen of NATO's thirty member nations, including Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. Top of mind were questions about the possibility of nuclear escalation from the Kremlin, and appropriate repsonses from the alliance, as well as questions about the longevity of Putin's regime, the nature of international authoritarian alliances, and the future of Ukraine as a European nation.

Drawing from their expertise on state-building, democracy, security issues, nuclear enterprise, and political transitions, the FSI scholars offered a broad analysis of the many factors currently playing out on the geopolitical stage. Abbreviated versions of their responses are given below.

Kathryn Stoner, Francis Fukuyama, Marshall Burke, Scott Sagan, Anna Grzymala-Busse, and Michael McFaul present at a panel given to memebers of the NATO Parlimentary Assembly.
Kathryn Stoner, Francis Fukuyama, Marshall Burke, Scott Sagan, Anna Grzymala-Busse, and Michael McFaul present at a panel given to memebers of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly on September 26, 2022. | Melissa Morgan

The following commentary has been edited for clarity and length, and does not represent the full extent of the panel’s discussion.
 


Rethinking Assumptions about Russia and Putin

Kathryn Stoner

Right now, Putin is the most vulnerable he's ever been in 22 years in power. But I don’t believe he's under so much pressure at this point that he is about to leave office anytime soon. Autocracies do not usually die by popular mobilization, unfortunately. More often they end through an elite coup or turnover. And since the end of WWII, the research has shown that about 75% of the time autocracies are typically replaced by another autocracy, or the perpetuation of the same autocracy, just with a different leader. So, if Putin were replaced, you might get a milder form of autocracy in Russia, but I don't think you are suddenly going to create a liberal democracy.

This means that we in the West, and particularly in the U.S., need to think very hard about our strategies and how we are going to manage our relationships with Putin and his allies. This time last year, the U.S. broadcast that we basically wanted Russia to calm down so we could pivot to China. That’s an invitation to not calm down, and I think it was a mistake to transmit that as policy.

We need to pay attention to what Russia has been doing. They are the second biggest purveyor of weapons globally after the United States. They will sell to anyone. They’ve been forgiving loans throughout Sub Saharan Africa from the Soviet period and using that as a way of bargaining for access to natural resources. They’re marketing oil, selling infrastructure, and building railroads. Wherever there is a vacuum, someone will fill it, and that includes Russia every bit as much as China. We need to realize that we are in competition with both Russia and China, and develop our policies and outreach accordingly.

KStoner

Kathryn Stoner

Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
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Confronting Autocracy at Home and Abroad

Anna Grzymala-Busse

Why is Putin in Ukraine? Because the fact that there is a democratic country right next door to Russia is an affront to him. Putin doesn’t care that much about NATO. The fact that nothing happened when Sweden joined is some evidence of this. That’s something to keep in mind as people are debating NATO and Ukraine and Ukraine’s possible future as a member.

NATO membership and EU membership are both wonderful things. But more fundamental that that, this war has to be won first. That’s why I think it’s necessary in the next six months to speed up the support for Ukraine by ensuring there’s a steady stream of armaments, training personnel, and providing other military support.

There’s been incredible unity on Ukraine over the last seven months across the EU, NATO, and amongst our allies. But our recent history with President Trump reminds us how fragile these international commitments can be. In foreign policy, it used to be understood that America stands for liberal democracy. But we had a president of the United States who was more than happy to sidle up to some of the worst autocrats in the world. That’s why we can’t afford to leave rising populism around the world unaddressed and fail to engage with voters. When we do that, we allow far right parties to grab those votes and go unopposed. Whatever happens domestically impacts what happens internationally.

Anna Grzymała-Busse

Anna Grzymala-Busse

Director of The Europe Center
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The Consequences of Nuclear Sabre-Rattling

Scott Sagan

We have to very clear-eyed when we’re talking about the threat, however improbable, of the use of a nuclear weapon. When it comes to the deployment of a tactical nuclear weapon, its kinetic effects depend on both the size of the weapon, the yield, and the target. Tactical weapons range in yield from very low — 5-10% of what was in the Hiroshima bomb — to as large as what was used against Hiroshima and Nagasaki. If that kind of weapon was used on an urban target, it would produce widescale effects. In a battlefield or rural area, it would have a relatively small impact.

But in the bigger picture, what any use of a weapon like this does is break a 70+ year tradition of non-use. Those seventy years have been dicey and fragile, but they have held so far. A tradition that is broken creates a precedent, and once there’s a precedent, it makes it much easier for someone to transgress the tradition again. So even if a decision was made to use a tactical weapon with little kinetic importance for strategic effect, I think we still need to be worried about it.

Personalistic dictators surround themselves with yes men. They make lonely decisions by themselves, often filled with vengeance and delusion because no one can tell them otherwise. They don't have the checks and balances. But I want to make one point about a potential coup or overthrow. Putin has done a lot to protect himself against that. But improbable events happen all the time, especially when leaders make really, really bad decisions. That’s not something we should be calling for as official U.S. policy, but it should be our hope.

Headshot of Scott Sagan

Scott Sagan

FSI Senior Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation
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Cycles of Conflict, Climate Change, and Food Insecurity

Marshall Burke

The estimates right now project that there are 350 million people around the world facing acute food insecurity. That means 350 million people who literally don’t have enough to eat. That’s roughly double what it was pre-COVID. The factors driving that are things like supply chain disruptions from the pandemic and climate shocks, but also because of ongoing conflict happening around the world, Ukraine included.

There was an early concern that the war in Ukraine would be a huge threat to global food security. That largely has not been the case so far, at least directly. Opening the grain corridors through the Black Sea has been crucial to this, and it’s critical that we keep those open and keep the wheat flowing out. Research shows that unrest increases when food prices spike, so it’s important for security everywhere to keep wheat prices down.

What I’m worried about now is natural gas prices. With high global natural gas prices, that means making fertilizer is also very expensive and prices have increased up to 300% relative to a few years ago. If they stay that high, this is going to be a long-term problem we will have to find a way of reckoning with on top of the other effects from climate change already impacting global crop production and the global economy.

Marshall Burke

Marshall Burke

Deputy Director of the Center on Food Security and the Environment
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Ukraine After the War

Francis Fukuyama

I've been more optimistic about the prospects for Ukraine taking back territory for more of this war, just because of the vast difference in motivation between the two sides and the supply of modern weapons that Ukraine has been getting. But I don’t know what the conditions on the ground will look like when the decision to negotiate comes. Will Russia still be sitting on occupied territory? Are they kicked out entirely? Or are the frontlines close to where they are now?

As I’ve observed, Ukraine's demands have shifted depending on how they perceive the war going on. There was a point earlier this summer where they hinted that a return to the February 23 borderlines would be acceptable. But now with their recent successes, they're saying they want everything back to the 2014 lines. What actually happens will depend on what the military situation looks like next spring, by my guess.

However the war does end, I think Ukraine actually has a big opportunity ahead of them. Putin has unwittingly become the father of a new Ukrainian nation. The stresses of the war have created a very strong sense of national identity in Ukraine that didn’t exist previously. It’s accurate that Ukraine had significant problems with corruption and defective institutions before, but I think there’s going to be a great push to rout that out. Even things like the Azov steel factory being bombed out of existence is probably a good thing in the long run, because Ukraine was far too dependent on 20th-century coal, steel, and heavy industry. Now they have an opportunity to make a break from all of that.

There are going to be challenges, obviously. We’ll have to watch very carefully what Zelenskyy chooses to do with the commanding position he has at the moment, and whether the government will be able to release power back to the people and restore its institutions. But Europe and the West and our allies are going to have a really big role in the reconstruction of Ukraine, and that should be regarded by everyone as a tremendous opportunity.

frank_fukuyama

Francis Fukuyama

Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at FSI
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Victory in Ukraine, Victory for Democracy

Michael McFaul

Nobody likes a loser, and right now, Putin is losing strategically, tactically, and morally. Now, he doesn’t really care about what Biden or NATO or the West think about him. But he does care about what the autocrats think about him, especially Xi Jinping. And with reports coming out of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization that Xi has “concerns” about what’s happening in Ukraine, Putin is feeling that pressure. I think that's why he has decided he needs to double down, not to negotiate, but to try and “win” in some way as defined by him.

In my view, that’s what’s behind the seizure of these four regions. If he feels like he can unequivocally claim them as part of Russia, then maybe he will sue for peace. And that’s exactly what President Zelenskyy fears. Why? Because that’s exactly what happened in 2014. Putin took Crimea, then turned around to the countries of the world and said, “Aren’t we all tired of war? Can’t we just have peace? I’m ready to end the war, as long as you recognize the new borders.” And, let’s be honest, we did.

We keep hearing politicians say we should put pressure for peace negotiations. I challenge any of them to explain their strategy for getting Putin to talk about peace. There is no doubt in my mind that President Zelenskyy would sit down tomorrow to negotiate if there was a real prospect for peace negotiations. But there's also no doubt in my mind right now that Putin has zero interest in peace talks.

Like Dr. Fukuyama, I don’t know how this war will end. But there's nobody inside or outside of Russia that thinks it’s going well. I personally know a lot of people that believe in democracy in Russia. They believe in democracy just as much as you or I. I’ve no doubt of their convictions. But they’re in jail, or in exile today.

If we want to help Russia in the post-Putin world, we have to think about democracy. There’s not a lot we can do to directly help democracy in Russia right now. But we should be doing everything to help democracy in Ukraine.  It didn’t happen in 1991. It didn’t happen in 2004. It didn’t happen in 2014. They had those breakthroughs and those revolutionary moments, but we as the democratic world collectively didn’t get it right. This is our moment to get it right, both as a way of helping Ukraine secure its future, and to give inspiration to “small-d” democrats fighting for rights across the world.

Michael McFaul, FSI Director

Michael McFaul

Director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Full Profile

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A delegation from the NATO Parliamentary Assembly visits the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
A delegation representing thirteen countries from the NATO Parliamentary Assembly visits Stanford to hear perspectives on the war in Ukraine and its geopolitical impacts from scholars at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
Melissa Morgan
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FSI Director Michael McFaul, Kathryn Stoner, Francis Fukuyama, Scott Sagan, Anna Grzymala-Busse, and Marshall Burke answered questions from the parliamentarians on the conflict and its implications for the future of Ukraine, Russia, and the global community.

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joshua tucker headshot for echo chambers, rabbit holes and algorithmic bias seminar

Join the Program on Democracy and the Internet (PDI) and moderator Nate Persily, for the next seminar in the Fall Seminar SeriesEcho Chambers, Rabbit Holes, and Algorithmic Bias: How YouTube Recommends Content to Real Users with Joshua Tucker, Professor of Politics, Director of the Jordan Center for the Advanced Study of Russia, Co-Director of New York University's Center for Social Media and Politics(CSMaP), Affiliated Professor of Russian and Slavic Studies, and Affiliated Professor of Data Science.

To what extent does the YouTube recommendation algorithm push users into echo chambers, ideologically biased content, or rabbit holes? Despite growing popular concern, recent work suggests that the recommendation algorithm is not pushing users into these echo chambers. However, existing research relies heavily on the use of anonymous data collection that does not account for the personalized nature of the recommendation algorithm. We asked a sample of real users to install a browser extension that downloaded the list of videos they were recommended. We instructed these users to start on an assigned video and then click through 20 sets of recommendations, capturing what they were being shown in real time as they used the platform logged into their real accounts. Using a novel method to estimate the ideology of a YouTube video, we demonstrate that the YouTube recommendation algorithm does, in fact, push real users into mild ideological echo chambers where, by the end of the data collection task, liberals and conservatives received different distributions of recommendations from each other, though this difference is small. While we find evidence that this difference increases the longer the user followed the recommendation algorithm, we do not find evidence that many go down `rabbit holes' that lead them to ideologically extreme content. Finally, we find that YouTube pushes all users, regardless of ideology, towards moderately conservative and an increasingly narrow range of ideological content the longer they follow YouTube's recommendations.

This session is part of the Fall Seminar Series, a months-long series from the Program on Democracy and the Internet, designed to bring researchers, policy makers, scholars and industry professionals together to share research, findings and trends in the cyber policy space. Both in-person and virtual attendance is available; registration is required. Lunch will be provided for in-person attendees. 

About the Speaker:

Joshua A. Tucker is Professor of Politics, an affiliated Professor of Russian and Slavic Studies, and an affiliated Professor of Data Science at New York University.  He is the Director of NYU’s Jordan Center for Advanced Study of Russia. He is one of the co-founders and co-Directors of the NYU  Center for Social Media and Politics (CSMaP) and the Social Media and Political Participation (SMaPP) laboratory. 

Nathaniel Persily
Joshua Tucker NYU
Seminars
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tim hwang headshot with text microeconomics of disinformation over the top

Join the Program on Democracy and the Internet (PDI) and moderator Nate Persily, in conversation with Tim Hwang, General Counsel of Substack, for a look at how microeconomics and disinformation are connected. Despite the tendency to wildly speculate on the future of disinformation and next-generation psychological operations, the vast majority of propagandists are rank pragmatists. How might microeconomic principles help us understand how disinformation campaigns are actually organized, and the kinds of tactics they are likely to deploy going into the future? This session will explore some early research exploring the small but critical incentives that shape tactical decisionmaking around disinformation efforts, and how such a framework might be used to ground threat modeling going forwards. 

This session is part of the Fall Seminar Series, a months-long series designed to bring researchers, policy makers, scholars and industry professionals together to share research, findings and trends in the cyber policy space. Both in-person and virutal attendance is available; registration is required.

About the Speaker:

Tim Hwang is a writer and researcher, currently the general counsel at Substack. He’s the author of Subprime Attention Crisis, a book about the online advertising bubble. He’s a research fellow at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology, is on the board of Meedan, and is an investor in Temescal Brewing. Previous work includes serving as the director of the Harvard-MIT Ethics and Governance of AI Initiative, $27M philanthropic fund and research effort working to advance the development of machine learning in the public interest. He also was the global public policy lead for artificial intelligence and machine learning at Google.

Nathaniel Persily
Tim Hwang Substack
Seminars
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The Hoover Project on China’s Global Sharp Power and the Stanford Center for International Security and Cooperation 
invite you to

Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China

Featuring

Hal Brands

Hal Brands

Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)
Michael Beckley

Michael Beckley

Associate Professor of Political Science, Tufts University
Larry Diamond

Larry Diamond

Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution
Glenn Tiffert

Glenn Tiffert

Research Fellow, Hoover Institution

About the Speakers

Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He writes a weekly column for Bloomberg Opinion on foreign policy and is the author or editor of several books, including his newest books, The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us About Great-Power Rivalry Today, and Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, with Michael Beckley. He is a member of the State Department’s Foreign Affairs Policy Board and previously worked as a special assistant to the secretary of defense.

Michael Beckley is an associate professor of political science at Tufts University and a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He is a leading expert on the balance of power between the United States and China, and the author of two books and multiple award-winning articles. Previously, Professor Beckley was an International Security Fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government and worked for the U.S. Department of Defense, the RAND Corporation, and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He continues to advise offices within the U.S. intelligence community and U.S. Department of Defense.

Larry Diamond is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, ​Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), and a Bass University Fellow in Undergraduate Education at Stanford University. He co-chairs the Hoover Institution’s programs on China’s Global Sharp Power and on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region.

Glenn Tiffert is a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a historian of modern China. He co-chairs the Hoover project on China’s Global Sharp Power and works closely with government and civil society partners to document and build resilience against authoritarian interference with democratic institutions. Most recently, he co-authored and edited Global Engagement: Rethinking Risk in the Research Enterprise (2020).

Hybrid

Hal Brands Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Michael Beckley Tufts University
Larry Diamond (Host) Hoover Institution
Glenn Tiffert (Discussant) Hoover Institution
Seminars
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Visually banner card with the event title "Japan’s "Free and Open Indo-Pacific” Strategy: More Eloquent Japan and Domestic Political Institutions", and featuring a circle photo portrait of speaker Professor Harukata Takenaka

Since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has advocated “Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP)” Vision in 2016, various scholars have analyzed policy formulation process of FOIP. Most of them refer to the rise of China as an influential power in the Indo-Pacific region with its own initiative, namely, the Belt and Road Initiative as a major factor which prompted the Second Abe Administration to launch FOIP.

It is the contention of this presentation that the current configuration of the Japanese political institutions has made it possible for the Second Abe administration to launch and pursue such a comprehensive strategy while an international factor is important. It demonstrates that a series of political reforms since 1990s have strengthened the power of the prime minister as an institution to initiate key cabinet policies and coordinate policy formulation among different ministries. The strong institutional foundation of the Japanese prime ministerial power has made it possible for the Abe administration to effectively pursue such a broad vision, engaging various ministries and organizations.

The existing research on Japan's diplomacy often evaluates Japan as a passive state. It considers that in the past Japan only responded to foreign pressure while it did not proactively push forward its own policies. The presentation suggests that Japan has changed and become more eloquent as a result of changes in domestic political institutions.

Speaker

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Square photo portrait of Harukata Takenaka
Harukata Takenaka is a professor at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) in Tokyo. He holds a PhD from Stanford University and a Bachelor of Laws from the University of Tokyo.

His key research areas are the role the prime minister in Japanese politics, changes in Japanese external policy, and democratization in Pre-war Japan.

Prof. Takenaka’s recent publications include: “Kyokoku Chugoku” to Taijisuru Indo-Taiheiyo Shokoku [Indo-Pacific Nations facing China aspiring to be a “Great Country”](edited) (Tokyo: Chikura Shobo, 2022), “Evolution of Japanese security policy and the House of Councilors,” Japanese Journal of Political Science, 22:2, (June 2021), 96-115, Korona Kiki no Seiji [Politics of Covid 19 Crisis](Tokyo: Chuo Koron Shinsha, 2020), “Expansion of the Japanese prime minister’s power in the Japanese parliamentary system: Transformation of Japanese politics and the institutional reforms,”Asian Survey,59:5:844-869 (September 2019); Futatsu no Seiken Kotai [Two Changes of Government] (edited) (Tokyo: Keiso Shobo, 2017); Failed Democratization in Prewar Japan (Stanford University Press 2014),

Harukata Takenaka Professor of Political Science National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Japan
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