International Relations

FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

Foreign aid is also examined by scholars trying to understand whether money earmarked for health improvements reaches those who need it most. And FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center has published on the need for strong South Korean leadership in dealing with its northern neighbor.

FSI researchers also look at the citizens who drive international relations, studying the effects of migration and how borders shape people’s lives. Meanwhile FSI students are very much involved in this area, working with the United Nations in Ethiopia to rethink refugee communities.

Trade is also a key component of international relations, with FSI approaching the topic from a slew of angles and states. The economy of trade is rife for study, with an APARC event on the implications of more open trade policies in Japan, and FSI researchers making sense of who would benefit from a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.

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This paper investigates the critical role of private satellite constellations, particularly Starlink, in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. It delves into how these systems are employed for intelligence gathering, communications, and logistical support, emphasizing their strategic importance in modern warfare. The research contributes to the discourse on the militarization of space assets, providing a nuanced understanding of the intersections between technology, ethics, and warfare.

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As the third year of Ukraine’s resistance to Russia’s war of aggression is now well underway, military victories and defeats in Ukraine’s counter-offensives have served as a primary lens through which Western audiences have understood Russia’s will to continue prosecuting its illegal war. As the Kremlin’s blatant power grab offended the consciences of millions the world over, a means for the West to compel an end to Putin’s war besides military intervention proved necessary. Within short order, various NATO-aligned states led largely by the United States and European Union unveiled one of the most comprehensive and draconian sanctions packages in history.

Much less visible than the progress of Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield has been the impact of halted trade on Russia’s fiscal-military state and military-industrial capabilities. Moreover, it remains to be seen if financial disincentives can persuade Putin and his inner circle to change course, or if the Russian Federation’s strongman leader is persuaded by sheer military force alone.

This Stanford-US-Russia Forum (SURF) memorandum seeks to investigate the efficacy of Western-led sanctions regimes against the Russian Federation. We begin our inquiry with an overview of sanctions implemented after the start of the full-scale invasion and how these complemented existing sanctions responding to Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. We next consider the impacts of economic sanctions on various interests of Russian industries and citizens in and outside of Russia. This paper next turns to various tactical and strategic shortcomings of historic Western sanctions strategies. Lastly, we seek to provide policy recommendations outside of those already recommended by the McFaul-Yermak sanctions working group.

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A burgeoning literature considers the domestic causes and consequences of democratic backsliding for public perceptions of democracy but has yet to fully examine the role of international factors in explaining these perceptions. Specifically, the effect of democratic backsliding in one democracy on public support for democratic principles in other countries has, thus far, defied theoretical and empirical investigation. Addressing this gap, we propose and test a theory of the effects of backsliding on global opinion in which information about democratic decline in one country can lead to increased support for authoritarian governance in another country. To test this, we use an original survey experiment in Israel where we test the effect of two narratives regarding the 2020 U.S. elections—one signaling democratic decline and one signaling democratic resilience—on support for authoritarian governance. We find that respondents exposed to the narrative of U.S. democratic decline were more supportive of authoritarian governance compared to respondents exposed to the narrative of democratic resilience. We further find marginal evidence that the respondents’ ideological preferences condition the effect of narrative exposure. Our findings suggest that the democratic backsliding literature has insufficiently explored the global consequences of domestic events and processes on democratic decline worldwide.

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International Journal of Public Opinion Research
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Amichai Magen
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This article originally appeared in The Stanford Daily.

European Union (EU) High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell M.S. ’75 visited the Hoover Institution on Monday for an event hosted by the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI).

In a keynote speech followed by a conversation with the institute’s director and former ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, Borrell delved Europe’s crucial role and responsibilities in addressing ongoing war in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as geopolitical security and emerging technology more broadly.

Borrell emphasized the need for EU countries to collectively adapt to the changing geopolitical landscape and increase their strategic responsibility. He stressed the importance of European unity in the face of challenges posed by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the ongoing Israel-Gaza war, noting that the security landscape has “dramatically changed.”

“Europe has to learn to speak the language of power,” Borrell said, emphasizing the need for Europe to increase its military capacities while utilizing all available tools to face global challenges.

Listen to Representative Borrell's full discussion with Michael McFaul below on a special episode of World Class podcast.

Follow the link for a transcript of "Strategic Responsibility in the EU, United States, and Beyond."

Regarding the Israel-Gaza war, Borrell called for a political process that would empower the Palestinian Authority and reach a solution for peace, describing the current state as “a stain on human consciousness.” He urged the international community to push for a ceasefire, secure the release of hostages, and ensure better access to humanitarian aid in the region.

“It is not a natural catastrophe what is happening in Gaza. It is not an earthquake, it is not a flood when you come and help people suffering the consequences. [It] is a manmade disaster, is a manmade catastrophe,” Borrell said.

Among the other global challenges Borrell called for Europe to address was the continent’s dependence on China for critical materials and technologies. He emphasized the importance of coordinating with the US to counter China’s growing influence in the global economic and political sphere.

“More coordination in front of China should be one of the most important things that the Europeans and the Americans should do in order to balance the challenges of this world,” Borrell said.

More broadly, Borrell spoke to the importance of coordination between the US and EU to work globally to protect “political freedom, economic prosperity, and social cohesion.”

Borrell acknowledged that the United States is a global leader in emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence, and stressed the importance of cooperation on trade and technological innovation. He expressed concern that regulatory hurdles may be hindering the EU’s ability to catch up with the U.S. in the technology sector and emphasized the significance of transatlantic collaboration in shaping the future of technology.

“I am happy to know that we are partners in building a responsible and human-centric technological innovation,” Borrell said.

The importance of partnership across countries was a throughline in Borrell’s speech, as he concluded with a reminder of the interconnectedness of global security and social well-being. “You cannot be secure at home if your neighbor is not eating dinner.”



Watch High Representative Borrell's full keynote remarks below. Video courtesy of the European Commission.

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Dr. Salam Fayyad, former prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, in conversation with Larry Diamond, FSI's Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy, at an event hosted by CDDRL's Program on Arab Reform and Democracy.
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Palestinian Statehood and the War in Gaza

Salam Fayyad, former prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, spoke about the quest for peace and Palestinian statehood during a conversation on the Palestinian people, the Gaza War, and the conflict’s implications for stability in the Middle East, hosted by CDDRL’s Program on Arab Reform and Democracy.
Palestinian Statehood and the War in Gaza
Michael McFaul listens to President Zuzana Čaputová speak during the Q&A portion of her fireside chat at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University.
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Slovak President Optimistic about Democracy, but Warns about Russian Misinformation

During a visit to the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová reminded the Stanford community that the stakes of the war in Ukraine are high and will impact democracies far beyond Eastern and Central Europe.
Slovak President Optimistic about Democracy, but Warns about Russian Misinformation
Will Dobson, book cover of "Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power," and Chris Walker
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How Can Democracies Defend Against the Sharp Power of Autocrats?

Christopher Walker, Vice President for Studies and Analysis at the National Endowment for Democracy, and Will Dobson, co-editor of the Journal of Democracy, discussed their new book, “Defending Democracy in an Age of Sharp Power” (Johns Hopkins University Press 2023).
How Can Democracies Defend Against the Sharp Power of Autocrats?
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Michael McFaul [left], the director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, speaks with Josep Borrell [right], High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, during an event at Stanford University on May 13, 2024.
European Union High Representative Josep Borrell visited Stanford University to discuss Europe's strategic responsibility in Ukraine, Gaza, and the digital sphere.
Melissa Morgan
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Borrell emphasized the need for EU countries to adapt to the changing geopolitical landscape and increase their strategic responsibility, whether in responding to Russian aggression in Ukraine, the crisis in Gaza, or competition with China.

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Heather Rahimi
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The evolving dynamics of technological leadership and the increasing strain on U.S.-China relations pose significant challenges for global innovation and economic stability, Craig Allen, President of the U.S.-China Business Council, told an audience at Stanford University on May 3, 2024. His speech delved into China's ambitious technological goals, the impact of U.S. export controls, and the future landscape of global innovation amidst rising geopolitical tensions.

Allen began with an anecdote about a conversation with the governor of one of China's poorest agricultural provinces. When asked about his economic priorities, the governor cited advanced technologies such as semiconductors and biotechnology, mirroring the sectors highlighted in the Made in China 2025 plan. This response underscored China's government's relentless focus on technological advancement across all levels of government, which Allen described as a "techno-utopian quest."

Allen traced the roots of China's techno-utopianism back over a century ago to the May 4th Movement, which called for a new culture based on science and democracy. He argued that this vision aligns perfectly with Marxist ideology and the Communist Party's current policies. "China’s leaders have long believed in the transformative power of technology," Allen noted, "a belief that is deeply embedded in their political and ideological fabric."

China’s leaders have long believed in the transformative power of technology, a belief that is deeply embedded in their political and ideological fabric.

Allen emphasized that China is not just an "innovation sponge" but has also become a leader in its own right. "China’s definition of innovation is tailored to its needs," he said, "differing significantly from the Silicon Valley model." He outlined five key points about the new productive forces that may distinguish Shenzhen from Silicon Valley:

  1. China recognizes that it is facing an acute labor shortage and is thus focusing on factory automation and efficient production in mature industries.
  2. China wants to spur innovation and create new industries at almost any cost.
  3. There is an overwhelming mandate for self-reliance and import substitution. 
  4. There is plenty of government money.  
  5. China plans to turn “data” into the “fifth factor of production”, behind – land, capital, labor, and entrepreneurship. 
     

China’s innovation is evident in its ambitious industrial policies, which are supported by substantial government funding and a strategic focus on self-reliance and import substitution.

Allen continued to discuss the implications of the U.S. export controls aimed at decoupling from China, highlighting the unintended consequences for American companies. He pointed out that unilateral export controls often harm U.S. firms more than their intended targets by reducing their customer base and long-term competitiveness. "We must recognize that these controls can backfire, hurting our own industries while China accelerates its push for technological independence," Allen warned.

We must recognize that these [export] controls can backfire, hurting our own industries while China accelerates its push for technological independence.

Another critical issue raised by Allen was the regulation of data flows. China's Cyber Administration has introduced stringent controls over cross-border data transfers. "The regulatory environment is becoming increasingly complex," Allen explained, "making it challenging for companies to maintain operational connectivity and compliance across borders."

From a corporate perspective, Allen urged companies to recognize the political realities and prepare for potential conflicts that could disrupt international trade. Many American firms are already scenario planning for severe sanctions, similar to those imposed on Russia, to ensure business continuity. "Strategic foresight is essential," he advised, "as geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China show no signs of abating."

Craig Allen's remarks were a reminder of the far-reaching implications of the competition for technology leadership between the U.S. and China. His insights underscored the need for a nuanced understanding of China's ambitions and the strategic adjustments required for American businesses to navigate this complex landscape. As the world witnesses unprecedented techno-economic competition, the stakes for both nations and the global economy could not be higher.

All views Craig Allen shared are his own and do not reflect the positions of the US-China Business Council.
 



Watch the Recorded Event   



Discover more from the inaugural SCCEI China Conference which brought together over 20 expert panelists from around the world and from across Stanford’s schools and disciplines, as well as experts and business leaders from Silicon Valley and the Bay Area to share insights on China's economic prospects. 
 


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Lessons of History: The rise and fall of technology in Chinese history event on Thursday, 9/28/23 at 4:30pm with MIT prof. Yasheng Huang.
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Lessons of History: The Rise and Fall of Technology in Chinese History

MIT Professor Yasheng Huang joined SCCEI and Stanford Libraries to deliver a talk examining the factors behind the rise and the fall of Chinese historical technology and lessons for today’s China.
Lessons of History: The Rise and Fall of Technology in Chinese History
Washington DC capital building
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2023 China Business Conference: Washington’s View of China

SCCEI’s Impact Team attended the 13th Annual China Business Conference held in Washington, D.C. in May 2023. The team shares insights from the conference on issues raised surrounding the troubled U.S.-China relationship.
2023 China Business Conference: Washington’s View of China
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Craig Allen, the President of the U.S.-China Business Council, spoke on the evolving dynamics of technological leadership between the U.S. and China and their implications for the rest of the world.

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Sergiy Leshchenko, 2024: A Decisive Year in Russia's War in Ukraine

In 2022, Russia initiated an unprovoked attack on Ukraine, marking the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. Despite initial gains, Putin was unable to change the political landscape in Kyiv, and approximately half of the territories initially seized by Russian forces were later reclaimed by Ukraine. However, the war is far from over. The war has also tested American leadership, particularly as China and France have expanded their international influence. The upcoming U.S. presidential election further escalates the uncertainty, as continued American support for Ukraine is critical. A Ukrainian victory is pivotal not only for regional stability but also for the security of American citizens.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Sergiy Leshchenko is formerly a journalist with Ukrainska Pravda and a member of the Ukrainian Parliament (2014-2019). He first rose to political prominence during Ukraine’s 2014 Maidan Revolution and has continued to serve in government and civil society since. He is an advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s chief-of-staff and the initiator of the Working Group on Sanctions Against Russia, co-led by Michael McFaul. Mr. Leshchenko is an alumnus of the 2013 cohort of the Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program (now the Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program) at FSI’s Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University.

Kathryn Stoner
Kathryn Stoner

In-person: Philippines Conference Room (Encina Hall, 3rd floor, 616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford)
Online: Via Zoom

Sergiy Leshchenko Advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Chief of Staff
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About the Event: The Russian system is different than our own, in ways that matter. Yet, longstanding assumptions and understandings about how policy is made are outdated and misleading, and overlook festering internal dynamics which increasingly influence Russian decisions and actions. Analysts and policymakers should take stock and re-calibrate accordingly.

Lunch to be provided for registered attendees.

About the Speaker: Steedman Hinckley served seven presidents analyzing and advising on Soviet/Russian affairs at the departments of state and defense, the US embassy in Moscow, the White House, and the intelligence community. He retired in 2023 as a member of CIA’s senior analytic service. He holds a B.A. in Russian and Soviet Studies from Wesleyan University and an M.Phil. in policy analysis from the Pardee RAND Graduate School. 

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Steedman Hinckley
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Salam Fayyad, a former prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, told a Stanford audience that a peaceful outcome of the Gaza War depends on a principled two-state solution that recognizes Palestinian rights at the outset.

Fayyad engaged in a conversation on April 29 with Larry Diamond and Hesham Sallam at an event hosted by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law’s (CDDRL) Program on Arab Reform and Democracy (ARD). Diamond is the Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and director of the Program on Arab Reform and Democracy, and Sallam is a CDDRL senior research scholar and associate director for the program. 

The problem, Fayyad said, is that a two-state solution has never been defined with adequate precision. “Part of this is to be expected if something is going to be the product of negotiations,” as was not the case in prior years with proposals such as the Oslo Accords.

On Oct. 7, 2023, Palestinian militants led by Hamas attacked Israel, killing almost 1,200 people, and Israel responded by launching an invasion of Gaza that has killed more than 34,000 Palestinians as of April 2024. With the war ongoing for seven months now, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict goes back many decades to 1948, when Israel was established. The question now is, what does the future hold for Gaza, the Palestinian people, Israel, and stability in the Middle East?

Fayyad raised the issue of what the key organizing principle to determine a future State of Palestine and a peaceful solution with Israel could be.

He said, “That process must be preceded by formal recognition of our rights as a people, our national rights. It's very important. Oslo was not about that. Oslo was very transactional.”

‘Voices in these discussions’


Sallam, a moderator, said in an email prior to the event that “the ongoing war has caused a grave humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza with tens of thousands of deaths, a serious risk of famine, and a pressing public health crisis. It is important for us to advance as many conversations as possible about how we got to this reality and how we can find a peaceful exit out of it. And it is imperative to elevate and center Palestinian voices in these discussions.”

He added, “Dr. Fayyad’s visit to CDDRL’s Program on Arab Reform and Democracy promises to shed light on a host of pressing questions that the Stanford community has been grappling with since last year. It is a timely opportunity to learn, engage, and deliberate.”

It is important for us to advance as many conversations as possible about how we got to this reality and how we can find a peaceful exit out of it. And it is imperative to elevate and center Palestinian voices in these discussions.
Hesham Sallam
Associate Director, Program on Arab Reform and Democracy

Fayyad is an economist who served as minister of finance for the Palestinian Authority from 2002 to 2005 and as prime minister from 2007 to 2013. During his tenure, he introduced a number of economic and governance reforms. Afterward, he founded "Future for Palestine," a nonprofit development foundation. He also worked for the International Monetary Fund, including as the resident representative in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Currently, he is a Visiting Senior Scholar and Daniella Lipper Coules '95 Distinguished Visitor in Foreign Affairs at the Princeton School of Public Affairs. He is also a distinguished statesman at the Atlantic Council and a distinguished fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Recognition of Rights


Fayyad said that the recognition of Palestinian rights is critical to any future negotiations. “One of the key lessons learned is that it's a mistake to engage in a problematic process that is not defined well in terms of outcome – what it is supposed to lead to if it is not based particularly from our point of view, or on recognition of our national rights as a people? Because so far, we have gotten none of that.”

He added, “I, like many Palestinians, would find it reasonable to engage in a process that could take us there in agreement and through negotiation.”

Fayyad said that if Palestinians' interests and those of all countries in the region are ultimately to live in peace and sustainable harmony, then the process must be recalibrated. “It has to be more principled.”

Asymmetry and Conflict History


Fayyad said that asymmetry exists between Palestinians and Israelis. “You see this everywhere, in terms of power relations, you see it everywhere, all facets of life. You see it on college campuses; you see it everywhere.”

For example, he said that Israel, over 75 years, has built a strong, vibrant economy with a strong military. “So, to deny people (Palestinians) the right to self-determination, which is a right that is absolute for us under international law, just like any other people anywhere in the world,” is asymmetrical.

He noted, “It is equally important, if not more important, for us Palestinians to understand that just because we are the weaker party in this balance of power … that we must actively assume full agency in the act of our liberation. We must.”

It is equally important, if not more important, for us Palestinians to understand that just because we are the weaker party in this balance of power … that we must actively assume full agency in the act of our liberation. We must.
Salam Fayyad
Former Prime Minister, Palestinian Authority

During the conversation, Diamond told Fayyad, “Everything you've talked about was challenging enough on Oct. 6.” But, he asked, how have the last seven months after a devastating terrorist attack affected everything, including the war in Gaza that has leveled much of the physical infrastructure of the country? “Where do we go from here?”

Fayyad described Oct. 7 as a “major shock” that has made a solution more difficult and distant than it already was. He added that Israel’s response to eliminate Hamas is likely impossible to extremely unlikely.

A Sisyphean Task


Our freedom is an inalienable right, Fayyad said about the Palestinian people, and it's an inseparable component of them as human beings. 

“As human beings and members of the human race, like everyone, we have that to share with everyone else. You have to have that kind of recalibration.”

Future conversations between Palestinians and Israelis have to begin from the recognition that two equal parties exist to this disagreement, he said. “Not the oppressor, not the oppressed, not the master and the slave. Not the master and the surrogate.”

Fayyad compared the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to a Sisyphean task of sorts. 

“But I never really understood Sisyphus to be an exercise in futility myself,” he said. “You learn something every time that boulder rolls back on. It's really about empowerment. That’s why it is most inspiring to try it. Even if you fail, even if you know you’re going to fail, you learn from it, you learn from it, and you keep pushing that boulder up the hill. There will come a point in time when the stars align for that which is just.”

The Program on Arab Reform and Democracy at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law at Stanford University examines the different social and political dynamics within Arab countries and the evolution of their political systems, focusing on the prospects, conditions, and possible pathways for democratic reform in the region.

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Michael Robbins and Amaney A. Jamal
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Survey sheds light on Palestinian views ahead of Hamas attack on Israel

Stanford’s Program on Arab Reform and Democracy – housed at the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law – hosted an event last Wednesday to discuss the Arab Barometer’s most recent survey, which concluded just as Hamas conducted its Oct. 7 attack on Israel.
Survey sheds light on Palestinian views ahead of Hamas attack on Israel
Panelists at the event "1973 Yom Kippur War: Lessons Learned"
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The 1973 Yom Kippur War and Lessons for the Israel-Hamas Conflict

Scholars of Israel and the Middle East discussed the strategic takeaways of the 1973 Yom Kippur War and their relevance to the region’s current security crisis.
The 1973 Yom Kippur War and Lessons for the Israel-Hamas Conflict
Family and friends of May Naim, 24, who was murdered by Palestinians militants at the "Supernova" festival, near the Israeli border with Gaza strip, react during her funeral on October 11, 2023 in Gan Haim, Israel. (Getty Images)
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FSI Scholars Analyze Implications of Hamas’ Terror Attack on Israel

Larry Diamond moderated a discussion between Ori Rabinowitz, Amichai Magen and Abbas Milani on the effects of Hamas’ attacks on Israel and what the emerging conflict means for Israel and Middle Eastern geopolitics.
FSI Scholars Analyze Implications of Hamas’ Terror Attack on Israel
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Dr. Salam Fayyad, former prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, in conversation with Larry Diamond, FSI's Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy, at an event hosted by CDDRL's Program on Arab Reform and Democracy.
Dr. Salam Fayyad, former prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, in conversation with Larry Diamond, FSI's Mosbacher Senior Fellow in Global Democracy, at an event hosted by CDDRL's Program on Arab Reform and Democracy. Photo: Damian Marhefka
Damian Marhefka
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Salam Fayyad, former prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, spoke about the quest for peace and Palestinian statehood during a conversation on the Palestinian people, the Gaza War, and the conflict’s implications for stability in the Middle East, hosted by CDDRL’s Program on Arab Reform and Democracy.

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About the Event: In the digital age, mass atrocity crimes are increasingly promoted and organized online. Yet, little attention has been afforded to the question of whether offensive cyberspace operations and big data analytics might be used for human protection purposes. Specifically: How might cyber-operations and online influence campaigns help protect populations from genocides, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and ethnic cleansings? In this talk, I introduce the concept of ‘cyber humanitarian interventions’ to disrupt potential perpetrators’ means and motivations for atrocities. I will also navigate the most pressing ethical objections to deploying cyber humanitarian interventions, and identify which moral agents, precisely, are responsible for their deployment. This includes states, coalitions, international organizations, individuals, civil society, and – of course – Big Tech.

About the Speaker: Rhiannon Neilsen is the Cyber Security Postdoctoral Fellow at the Center for International Security and Cooperation. Her research focuses on digital technologies in conflict (specifically cyber, social media, and AI), mass atrocities, disinformation, and the ethics of war. Previously, Rhiannon was a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Australian National University, a Research Consultant for the Institute for Ethics, Law and Armed Conflict (ELAC) at the University of Oxford, and a Visiting Fellow at the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defense Center of Excellence.

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William J. Perry Conference Room

Rhiannon Neilsen
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About the Event: Catastrophic, civilization-threatening climate change is a genuine possibility within the coming century. This talk will consider evidence that a variety of climate tipping points and other planetary boundaries have already been crossed, and that climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases may be considerably higher than recent IPCC estimates. Further, modeling of cascading risks – such as how multiple tipping points might interact if thresholds are crossed – suggests that the full impact of anthropogenic environmental change remains unknown and likely underestimated.  Meanwhile, a widespread focus on high-level international and national governance obscures how denial, disinformation, and multi-layered, subnational governance processes are delaying and derailing changes needed to reach Paris Agreement goals. The talk will end with reflections on ways forward. 
 
About the Speakers: Paul N. Edwards is Senior Research Scholar at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Director of the Program on Science, Technology & Society, and Co-Director of the Stanford Existential Risks Initiative, as well as Professor of Information and History (Emeritus) at the University of Michigan. Edwards is the author of A Vast Machine: Computer Models, Climate Data, and the Politics of Global Warming (MIT Press, 2010) and The Closed World: Computers and the Politics of Discourse in Cold War America (MIT Press, 1996), and co-editor of Changing the Atmosphere: Expert Knowledge and Environmental Governance (MIT Press, 2001), as well as other books and numerous articles. With Janet Vertesi, he co-edits the Infrastructures book series for MIT Press. Edwards recently served as a Lead Author for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2021).

 All CISAC events are scheduled using the Pacific Time Zone.

William J. Perry Conference Room

Paul Edwards
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