International Relations

FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

Foreign aid is also examined by scholars trying to understand whether money earmarked for health improvements reaches those who need it most. And FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center has published on the need for strong South Korean leadership in dealing with its northern neighbor.

FSI researchers also look at the citizens who drive international relations, studying the effects of migration and how borders shape people’s lives. Meanwhile FSI students are very much involved in this area, working with the United Nations in Ethiopia to rethink refugee communities.

Trade is also a key component of international relations, with FSI approaching the topic from a slew of angles and states. The economy of trade is rife for study, with an APARC event on the implications of more open trade policies in Japan, and FSI researchers making sense of who would benefit from a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.

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Andray Abrahamian will be the 2018-19 Koret Fellow in the Korea Program at Stanford’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC). Abrahamian has been Executive Director and Director of Research for Choson Exchange, a non-profit that has trained over 2000 North Koreans in entrepreneurship and economic policy since 2010. His work for Choson Exchange and other projects has taken him to North Korea 30 times. He has also lived in Myanmar, allowing him the ability to conduct field research for his new book, North Korea and Myanmar: Divergent Paths (2018, McFarland). Divergent Paths asks how Myanmar came to end its isolation, while North Korea has yet not. 

“When it comes to North Korea, Dr. Abrahamian has been very active both as an academic and on the ground. He has genuine hands-on experience of working with North Koreans from his numerous trips to the country. In this important period of flux for North Korea’s place on the world stage, we welcome Dr. Abrahamian as 2018-19 Koret Fellow, and look forward to his meaningful contributions to our activities.” “His experience and understanding of North Korea will be a great asset to our program,” Gi-Wook Shin, director of APARC said.

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As the 2018-19 Koret Fellow, Abrahamian will research the economic relations of North Korea during changing geopolitical conditions as well as entrepreneurship in North Korea as it relates to communities of Koreans abroad. He also plans to write a general readership book that explains contemporary North Korean society. While at Stanford, he will teach a course on contemporary North Korean society and engage in public talks and conferences on Korea issues. During his fellowship, Abrahamian will also help organize the Koret Workshop, an international conference held annually at Stanford University.

Abrahamian is an Honorary Fellow at Macquarie University, Sydney, and an Adjunct Fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute. He is a frequent contributor to 38North.org, a website focused on North Korea analysis, and is a member of the US National Committee on North Korea. Andray holds a PhD from the University of Ulsan and an MA from the University of Sussex in International Relations. He has taught courses at Yangon University and Ulsan University. 

Supported by the Koret Foundation, the fellowship brings leading professionals to Stanford to conduct research on contemporary Korean affairs with the broad aim of strengthening ties between the United States and Korea.

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The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University (FSI) brings you an expert panel discussion in Washington, DC:

North Korea: Now What?
Stanford experts on the challenges ahead

 

Panelists:
Scott Sagan: FSI senior fellow and international security expert
Gi-Wook Shin: FSI senior fellow and director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Kathleen Stephens: William J. Perry Fellow and former US ambassador to South Korea

Moderated by Amb. Michael McFaul, FSI Director

 

Schedule

4:30 PM: Light reception
5:15 PM: Panel discussion begins

This event is free and open to the public, but space is limited. You must register to attend.

Contact us at fsi-communications@stanford.edu with questions.

 

National Press Club

529 14th Street Northwest

Conference Rooms

Washington, DC 20045
 

Scott Sagan FSI senior fellow and international security expert Panelist Center for International Security and Cooperation
Gi-Wook Shin FSI senior fellow and director of the Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center Panelist Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Kathleen Stephens William J. Perry Fellow and former US ambassador to South Korea Panelist Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Michael McFaul FSI Director and former US ambassador to Russia Moderator Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
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The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies at Stanford University is very pleased to announce that Lieutenant General H.R. McMaster, US Army (Ret.), has been appointed the Bernard and Susan Liautaud Visiting Fellow at FSI effective September 1, 2018. 

McMaster will also hold the Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellowship at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and serve as a lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School of Business in management.

“H.R. McMaster is a soldier-scholar who has seen war from every angle -- on the hot battlefield and through the cold judgment of history. Few officers ever serve their country in the highest levels of government. Fewer still have done so while getting a Ph.D. and writing an influential book about civil-military relations,” says Amy Zegart, a senior fellow and co-director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at FSI. “He will bring a deep well of expertise and experience to the Hoover and Stanford communities. We are thrilled to be welcoming him back to the Farm.”

H.R. McMaster served in the United States Army for 34 years before his recent retirement in June 2018. Until recently, he also was the 26th Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs.

Alongside his military career, he earned a Ph.D. in American history at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in 1996. He has published essays, articles, and book reviews on history, the future of warfare, and leadership in numerous publications including, but not limited to, Foreign Affairs, the Wall Street Journal, and the New York Times. 

His seminal work is his book Dereliction of Duty: Lyndon Johnson, Robert McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Lies that Led to Vietnam, published in 1997 and subsequently a New York Times bestseller.

In recent years he has been voted one of TIME magazine’s “100 Most Influential People in the World” and Fortune’s “50 World’s Greatest Leaders”.

“I am delighted to welcome H.R. McMaster back to the Stanford community,” says FSI director Michael McFaul. “In addition to his insights regarding national security strategy for the academic and policy worlds, we look forward to his contributions to the education and training of future foreign policy leaders from Stanford University.”

 

 

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The future of ASEAN is necessarily unknown. Its futures, however, can be guessed with less risk of being wrong. The purpose of this article is not to predict with confidence but to "pandict" with reticence—not to choose one assured future but to scan several that could conceivably occur. Also, what follows is merely a range of possible futures, not the range. The five different ASEANs of the future all too briefly sketched below are meant to be suggestive, but they are neither fully exclusive nor jointly exhaustive. Potentiality outruns imagination. The author's hope is that by doing the easy thing—opening a few doors on paper—he may tempt analysts more knowledgeable than himself to do the hard thing. That truly difficult challenge is to pick the one doorway through which ASEAN is most likely to walk or be pushed through—and to warrant that choice with the comprehensive evidence and thorough reasoning that, for lack of space and expertise, are not found here. That said, this "pandiction" does start with a prediction, and thereafter as well the line between speculation and expectation—the possible and the probable—will occasionally be crossed. In addition, by way of self-critique, the author's postulations may overestimate the importance of China in ASEAN's futures

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Donald K. Emmerson
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Selected from among 668 applicants, the 2018-19 Ukrainian Emerging Leaders at Stanford’s Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL) stood out for their outstanding civic records, leadership potential and contributions to Ukraine’s political and social development.

Nataliya Mykolska, Ivan Prymachenko, and Oleksandra Ustinova will arrive to Stanford this September to begin the 10-month fellowship program. Taking courses with leading faculty and working on fellowship projects, these emerging leaders will step back from the demands of their work and immerse themselves in an academic experience that will reset their professional trajectories.

Since the 2013-14 Revolution of Dignity, Ukraine has fought to define itself as a democracy. Not only has it faced external challenges in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, but also internal ones as it grapples with institution-building and reforms. These three incoming fellows are all pioneering new approaches to dismantle the Soviet past and re-shape the future of their country. From export promotion to education reform to anti-corruption work, their projects at Stanford will contribute to Ukraine’s democratic transition.

As the first year of the Ukrainian Emerging Leaders Program draws to a close, the inaugural cohort of fellows will return to Ukraine to apply what they learned and work on reforms that will shape their country. They will join a community of mid-career practitioners in Ukraine who have graduated from CDDRL’s other core leadership programs - the Draper Hills Summer Fellows Program and the Leadership Academy for Development.

The Ukrainian Emerging Leaders Program would not be possible without the support of a generous set of donors who have made this program possible, including; Western NIS Enterprise Fund; Svyatoslav Vakarchuk; Tomas Fiala; Rustem Umerov; Oleksandr Kosovan; and Viktor and Iryna Ivanchyk.

 

 

TRANSFORMING UKRAINE INTO AN EXPORTING NATION

 

 

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Hometown: Kyiv and Lviv, Ukraine

Organizational affiliation: Trade Representative of Ukraine - Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade

 

Professional Background:

- In the Ukrainian government, I am responsible for developing and implementing consistent, predictable and efficient trade policy. I focus on export strategy and promotion, building an effective system of state support for Ukrainian exports, free trade agreements, protecting Ukrainian trade interests in the World Trade Organization, dialogue with Ukrainian exporters, and removing trade barriers. Prior to joining the government, I worked for almost 15 years as a legal counsel in top Ukrainian law firms, with a concentration on all aspects of international trade.

 

Why do you do the work you do?

- I do believe in international trade and that it brings growth to the world economy and prosperity to the world. I also believe that exports are not only driving Ukraine’s economy but are of paramount importance for further development and growth of Ukraine. Exports change Ukraine and Ukrainian businesses. Moreover, improving Ukraine’s export strategy will change people’s mindset -it will not only create a new generation of businesses but a new generation of Ukrainians.

 

What do you hope to achieve at Stanford through the fellowship and your project?

- For me, this program is an opportunity to enhance my academic foundation and skills to reload and upgrade in order to develop a strategic vision and apply relevant implementation instruments, and thus to achieve a higher level of professional and personal development. This is a tremendous opportunity to work on an ambitious vision of Ukraine as an exporting nation. The project will create a program to help Ukrainians understand why exporting is important not only for the further development and growth of Ukraine, but also how it impacts them directly. I plan to do this through education, culture, social movements and changing mindsets. This campaign should promote efforts to increase exports, and not only create a new generation of business, but a new Ukrainian perspective on exports.

 

Favorite quote or fun fact about yourself? 

“What was a progress yesterday, will be the ichthyosaurs tomorrow.” Lina Kostenko, Ukrainian poet and writer.

 

 

QUALITY AND ACCESSIBLE EDUCATION AS THE KEY TO THE FUTURE

 

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Hometown: Donetsk, Ukraine

Organizational affiliation: Prometheus

 

Professional Background:

- I am an educational technology innovator and co-founder of the largest Ukrainian massive open online courses platform Prometheus, which has 600,000 users. Prometheus hosts 75 massive online courses from top-rated Ukrainian universities, governmental bodies, international organizations such as United Nations Development Program, the Council of Europe and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and leading companies such as Microsoft Ukraine and Ernst and Young Ukraine. Among my organization’s key activities is the integration of our courses as a part of the curricula in Ukraine’s educational facilities in a blended learning format: twenty-two Ukrainian universities are already participating in this program.

 

Why do you do the work you do?

- In high school, I loved history but had to travel for hours to study with one of the few renowned historians in my region. With her guidance, I won the All-Ukrainian competition in history, an accomplishment that got me admitted to the best Ukrainian university. Quality education was the key to my future. Now, with the use of new technologies, I want to bring free access to the best education to every student in Ukraine.

 

What do you hope to achieve at Stanford through the fellowship and your project?

- At Stanford, I plan to design a technology-driven Ukrainian education reform roadmap, covering the teaching process itself, retraining of teachers and integrating the principles of financing. I want to research cutting-edge educational practices and to learn how to scale them for millions of students in Ukraine and eventually worldwide. My intended impact is to create equal educational opportunities that will kick-start economic development and promote citizens’ participation in social and political life.

 

Favorite quote or fun fact about yourself? 

- To launch the first massive open online course in Ukraine as a student-historian in 2013, I studied programming with the help of massive open online courses from American universities and created a website for the project on my own.

 

 

CORRUPTION IS A BATTLE I CAN FIGHT

 

 

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Hometown: Kyiv, Ukraine

Organizational affiliation: Anti-Corruption Action Center (ANTAC)

 

Professional Background:

- I am a board member of the Anti-corruption Action Center (ANTAC) where I direct communications strategy and advocacy campaigns. I have been working in this field for over ten years. Previously I ran the press-center for the National Anti-Tobacco movement that resulted in the ban of tobacco advertisements and smoking in public places, as well as the increase of taxes on tobacco products.

Since the 2013-14 revolution on Maidan, one of Ukraine’s major struggles in building its democracy has been the one against corruption. My team has advocated for over 20 laws establishing new anti-corruption bodies, such as the National Anti-Corruption Bureau, Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor and Anti-Corruption Court, as well as for public access to land and property registers, criminal liability for illicit enrichment and other anti-corruption tools. I also manage the Corruption in Healthcare Project which focuses on reforming the medical procurement process.

 

Why do you do the work you do?

- I personally believe that if everyone gives up 10 percent of their time for something good we could change the world. A lot changed with the Revolution of Dignity when my countrymen died for a better future for Ukraine. After 2014, I gave up a well-paid job in an American IT company and began working full-time to fight corruption. Corruption is Ukraine’s second front, other than the war with Russia. A lot of young men, including friends of mine, went to fight in the war in Eastern Ukraine and never returned. Corruption is the battle I can fight: That’s why I have to do what I can to change the country.

 

What do you hope to achieve at Stanford through the fellowship and your project?

- I want to study the best anti-corruption practices, cultural behavior changes and new trends in politics to return with a campaign to implement. The heart of it will be to change Ukrainians’ attitudes toward corruption. Currently many Ukrainians see corrupt officials as successful businessmen rather than thieves. With the rise of populism, the presidential and parliamentary elections in 2019 may see these officials gaining power. This attitude of accepting corruption needs to change and I hope to learn the best practices for fighting this mindset. Once successfully implemented in Ukraine, the communication campaign I design at Stanford could be replicated in other Post-Soviet countries. I am convinced that Ukraine is a laboratory for new anti-corruption solutions and good governance tools.
 

Favorite quote or fun fact about yourself?

 - Dream Big!

 
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From left to right: Nataliya Mykolska, Ivan Prymachenko, and Oleksandra Ustinova
Oleksandr Avramchuk
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Students from Ford Dorsey Master’s Program in International Policy spent a week in Korea to experience firsthand how international policy works in practice.

The full article can be viewed here.

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Student Isabelle Foster asks Lieutenant Commander Daniel McShane about his time defending the DMZ as they stand on a platform overlooking North Korea. Photo by Nicole Feldman.
Student Isabelle Foster asks Lieutenant Commander Daniel McShane about his time defending the DMZ as they stand on a platform overlooking North Korea. Photo by Nicole Feldman.
Nicole Feldman
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The era of globalization saw China emerge as the world's manufacturing titan. However, the "made in China" model—with its reliance on cheap labor and thin profits—has begun to wane. Beginning in the 2000s, the Chinese state shifted from attracting foreign investment to promoting the technological competitiveness of domestic firms. This shift caused tensions between winners and losers, leading local bureaucrats to compete for resources in government budget, funding, and tax breaks. While bureaucrats successfully built coalitions to motivate businesses to upgrade in some cities, in others, vested interests within the government deprived businesses of developmental resources and left them in a desperate race to the bottom.

In Manipulating Globalization, Ling Chen argues that the roots of coalitional variation lie in the type of foreign firms with which local governments forged alliances. Cities that initially attracted large global firms with a significant share of exports were more likely to experience manipulation from vested interests down the road compared to those that attracted smaller foreign firms. The book develops the argument with in-depth interviews and tests it with quantitative data across hundreds of Chinese cities and thousands of firms. Chen advances a new theory of economic policies in authoritarian regimes and informs debates about the nature of Chinese capitalism. Her findings shed light on state-led development and coalition formation in other emerging economies that comprise the new "globalized" generation.
 

About the Author

Ling Chen is an assistant professor in the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University. During the 2013-14 academic year, she was a Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow at Shorenstein APARC.
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“The spectacle of the Singapore Summit, the first-ever meeting between a North Korean leader and a sitting U.S. president, naturally captured the world’s attention. The compelling images of the encounter between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump should not, however, obscure two essential realities,” writes Daniel Sneider in an analysis written for The National Bureau of Asian Research. Read it here.

 

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Donald K. Emmerson
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The 2018 IISS Shangri-La Dialogue was held in Singapore, June 1-3. Shorenstein APARC's Donald Emmerson was in attendance; some of his observations from the the 17th Asia Security Summit are provided below.

NOTE: This post is forthcoming from YaleGlobal.

 

The 2018 Shangri-La Dialogue on 1-3 June in Singapore might as well have been renamed the “Indo-Pacific Dialogue.” In the plenaries and the panels, in the Q&As, corridors, and coffee breaks, not even the imminent Trump-Kim summit hosted by Singapore could compete with the “Indo-Pacific” among the attendees. Although the toponym itself is old, its sudden popularity is new, reflecting new geopolitical aspirations for the region. 
 
What explains the latest revival and rise of the “Indo-Pacific” in the international relations of Asia? What does the term now mean, and why does it matter?  In March, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi dismissed the “Indo-Pacific” as “an attention-grabbing idea” that would “dissipate like ocean foam.”  Is he right?  And is the “Indo-Pacific” purely maritime, or does it have legs on land as well?  Is the strategy Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s way of labeling his shift from “looking east” to “acting east” – and perhaps his hope of looking and acting westward past Pakistan toward Africa as well?  Does the term frame a potential rival to China’s 21st Century Maritime Silk Road?  Is it an American rebranding of former President Barack Obama’s “pivot” or “rebalance” toward Asia?  In the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” that Washington favors, what do the adjectives imply?  Is the “Indo-Pacific” a phoenix – a Quadrilateral 2.0 meant to reunite Australia, India, Japan and the US in leading roles?  Could the strategy someday morph into a five-sided “win-win” arrangement with “Chinese characteristics”? 
 
Understandably, the officials who spoke at Shangri-La preferred not delve into such controversial and speculative questions. Satisfactory answers to some of them are not possible, let alone plausible, at least not yet. But the dialogue, a summit on Asian security, did stimulate thought and discourse about just what the “Indo-Pacific” means, for whose purposes, and to what effect.
 
It is easy to load the “Indo-Pacific” with geopolitical intent. Having accepted the invitation to keynote the dialogue on 1 June, Modi became the first Indian prime minister to speak at Shangri-La since the event’s inception in 2002.  Many at the gathering read the prefix “Indo-“ as a geopolitical invitation to India to partner more explicitly with states in an “Asia-Pacific” region from which it had been relatively absent, and thereby to counterbalance China within an even larger frame. 
 
Perhaps aiming to mend relations with China after the Wuhan summit, held in April, Modi unloaded the loaded term. “The Indo-Pacific,” he said, “is a natural region. …  India does not see [it] as a strategy or as a club of limited members.  Nor as a grouping that seeks to dominate.  And by no means do we consider it as directed against any country. A geographical definition, as such, cannot be.”  Modi flattened the Indo-Pacific to a mere page in an atlas – the two dimensions of a map – while widening it to include not only all of the countries located inside “this geography” but “also others beyond who have a stake in it.”  Modi thus drained the toponym of controversially distinctive meaning. India’s rival China could hardly object to being included in a vast “natural” zone innocent of economic or political purpose or design. 
 
Not so, countered US Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis. Unlike Modi, he explicitly linked ideology to geography by repeatedly invoking a “free and open Indo-Pacific.” Nor did these qualifiers apply only to external relations – a state’s freedom from foreign interference and its freedoms of navigation and overflight under international law. For Mattis, “free and open” implied internal democracy as well – a state’s accountability to an uncensored society. In Singapore during his question and answer period, Mattis acknowledged the “free and open press” that had thronged to cover the dialogue.   
 
In corridor conversations, understandings of the “Indo-Pacific” ranged widely, from an inoffensively natural region on the one hand, to a pointedly ideological one on the other. Will the real Indo-Pacific please stand up?  
 
The rise of the “Indo-Pacific” in American policy discourse amounts to a rejection, a resumption, and a desire.  Because Donald Trump cannot abide whatever his predecessor did or said, Barack Obama’s “rebalance” to the “Asia-Pacific” could not survive. The “Indo-Pacific” conveniently shrinks Obama’s “Asia” to a hyphen while inflating the stage on which a celebrity president can play. Yet Mattis also, without saying so, reaffirmed the result of Obama’s “pivot” to Asia by assuring his audience that “America is in the Indo-Pacific to stay. This is our priority theater.” Alongside that rejection-cum-resumption, the prefix “Indo-” embodies the hope that India as a major power can help rebalance America’s friends against what Mattis called China’s “intimidation and coercion,” notably in the South China Sea. 
 
In Honolulu, en route to the dialogue, Mattis had added the prefix to the US Pacific Command – now the Indo-Pacific Command. But continuity again matched change in that the renamed INDOPACOM’s area of responsibility was not extended west of India to Africa. As for Modi, while recommitting his country to “a democratic and rules-based international order,” both he and Mattis ignored the Quad – the off-and-on-again effort to convene the United States, India, Japan and Australia as prospective guardians and agents of the Indo-Pacific idea.
 
The first effort to create the Quad died at the hands of Beijing and Canberra.  Quietly in May 2007, on the sidelines of an ASEAN meeting in Manila, the four governments met at a sub-cabinet level, followed that September by an expanded Malabar naval exercise in the Indian Ocean among the four along with Singapore. Early in 2008, however, then-Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, bowing to pressure from Beijing, withdrew Australia from Quad 1.0 and it collapsed. 
 
It took the subsequent upbuilding and arming of land features in the South China Sea by China to re-embolden the quartet. Beijing’s maritime militancy, Trump’s disdain for Obama-style “strategic patience,” the worsening of Japan’s relations with China, and alarm in Australia over signs of Beijing’s “sharp power” operations there all came together to motivate a low-key, low-level meeting of a could-be Quad 2.0 on the margins of another ASEAN gathering in Manila in November 2017.  
 
The question now is whether the quartet will reconvene in Singapore during the upcoming November ASEAN summitry and if it does, whether the level of representation will be nudged upward to cabinet status. Trump’s addiction to bilateralism, mano a mano, may be tested in this four-way context. Or his one-on-one real-estate developer’s proclivity could cripple the Quad from the start. 
 
More grandiose is the idea that the “Indo-Pacific” could shed its cautionary quote marks and become a rubric for building infrastructure on a scale rivaling China’s own Belt and Road Initiative to lay down railroads, roads and ports from Kunming potentially to Kenya. That surely is, so to speak, a bridge too far.  
 
In short, the temptation to read multilateral diplomatic content into a map of the “Indo-Pacific” drawn in Washington should be resisted. Having objected to any reference to “the rules-based international order” in the June G7 communiqué that he refused to sign, Trump is unlikely to fit the “Indo-Pacific” into any such frame. Nor is it likely to think that he would wish to augment a resuscitated Quad by adding China. Not to mention that Beijing might fail to see the humor in belonging to a five-sided “Pentagon” whose name is a metonym for the American Department of Defense. 
 

Donald K. Emmerson heads the Southeast Asia Program at Stanford University where he is also affiliated with the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law.

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