Unintended Consequences of Transnational Repressions: How Opposition Gains Support Abroad in Response to Criminalization by Autocrats
Autocrats frequently use legal repression, such as criminalization, to suppress dissent, targeting both domestic and exiled organizations. We examine criminalization effects on exiled organizations using an original survey with an embedded conjoint experiment, conducted with 5,996 Russian emigrants across 89 countries who left after the 2022 Ukraine invasion. We explore how criminalization, donation anonymity, and organizational transparency affect emigrants’ willingness to cooperate with these organizations. Our results reveal that criminalization backfires, as exiles view it as an indicator of political authenticity and efficacy, fostering solidarity and coordination among the diaspora. As an unintended consequence, criminalization facilitates collective action and coordination of extraterritorial opposition. Geopolitics matters—cooperation with criminalized organizations is lower in host countries allied with the autocrat. Technologies enabling anonymous donations and accountability significantly boost cooperation. This study highlights the limitations of autocratic transnational control and suggests strategies for exile organizations to strengthen diaspora engagement and foster collective action. (In collaboration with Emil Kamalov)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Ivetta Sergeeva is a Postdoctoral Fellow at Stanford University, based at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law. She holds a PhD in Social and Political Sciences from the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence. She co-founded and co-led OutRush, a panel survey of Russian political migrants, initiated as both a personal and professional reaction to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Her research focuses on authoritarianism, civil society, and emigration, employing a mixed-methods approach that integrates surveys, experiments, and interviews. Beyond research, she has eight years of experience as a project coordinator in civil society and human rights initiatives, navigating the challenging environment of contemporary Russia.
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Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to the William J. Perry Conference Room in Encina Hall may attend in person.
Ivetta Sergeeva
Ivetta Sergeeva specializes in comparative social science, focusing on political behavior, civil society, citizenship and migration. In her research, she employs a mixed-methods approach, emphasizing surveys, statistical modeling, experiments, and interviews. Apart from her research skills, she has eight years of experience supervising projects in civil society and human rights organizations within the challenging context of contemporary Russia.
In collaboration with Emil Kamalov, she co-founded and co-leads two research projects:
- OutRush: A panel survey of Russian emigrants, initiated as both a personal and professional response to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Since March 2022, more than 10,000 Russian emigrants, now located in more than a hundred countries, have participated in the survey. The project has garnered substantial international media coverage and has drawn the attention of policymakers and experts.
- Violence Monitor: A national survey on intimate partner violence in Russia that integrates UN methodology with experimental techniques.
She is expected to receive her PhD in Political and Social Sciences from the European University Institute in October 2024. She holds an MA in Sociology from the European University in Saint Petersburg.
FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.