International Relations

FSI researchers strive to understand how countries relate to one another, and what policies are needed to achieve global stability and prosperity. International relations experts focus on the challenging U.S.-Russian relationship, the alliance between the U.S. and Japan and the limitations of America’s counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan.

Foreign aid is also examined by scholars trying to understand whether money earmarked for health improvements reaches those who need it most. And FSI’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center has published on the need for strong South Korean leadership in dealing with its northern neighbor.

FSI researchers also look at the citizens who drive international relations, studying the effects of migration and how borders shape people’s lives. Meanwhile FSI students are very much involved in this area, working with the United Nations in Ethiopia to rethink refugee communities.

Trade is also a key component of international relations, with FSI approaching the topic from a slew of angles and states. The economy of trade is rife for study, with an APARC event on the implications of more open trade policies in Japan, and FSI researchers making sense of who would benefit from a free trade zone between the European Union and the United States.

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Abstract: Sagan and Valentino's path-breaking survey of public opinion American attitudes towards the laws of war found Americans are relatively insensitive to international norms and taboos against the use of nuclear weapons and the targeting of civilian populations. We replicated a key question on this study – where respondents were asked if they would support saturation bombing an Iranian city to end a war. We also introduced some variations into the experiment to disaggregate any potential influence of international norms and laws from the effect of historical analogies and interest-based frames embedded in the original experiment. Overall, our quantitative and qualitative findings are more optimistic about Americans' sensitivity to the civilian immunity norm. Nonetheless, our findings suggest much depends on whether legal/ethical considerations, rather than tactical ones alone, are part of any national conversation about war policy.    

Charli's Bio: Charli Carpenter is a Professor in the Department of Political Science at University of Massachusetts-Amherst. Her teaching and research interests include the laws of war, protection of civilians, humanitarian disarmament, global advocacy networks, and the role of popular culture in global affairs. She has a particular interest in the gap between intentions and outcomes among advocates of human security. She has published three books and numerous journal articles, has served as a consultant for the United Nations, and contributed to Foreign Policy and Foreign Affairs. In addition to teaching and research, Dr. Carpenter spends her time raising future members of the American electorate, snowboarding, and rambling about international politics and popular culture at Duck of Minerva.  

 

Alexander's Bio: Alexander H. Montgomery is associate professor of Political Science at Reed College. He has a B.A. in Physics from the University of Chicago, an M.A. in Energy and Resources from UC-Berkeley, and an M.A. in Sociology and a Ph.D. in Political Science from Stanford University. He has been a fellow at the Belfer Center, CISAC, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the Woodrow Wilson Center. He has published articles on nuclear proliferation and on the effects of social networks of international organizations on interstate conflict, and is the co-editor of the Oxford Handbook of Political Networks (2017).

 

Charli Carpenter & Alexander Montgomery
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Abstract: This presentation is based on the book with the same title (Yale University Press, 2018) which examines a crucial element of state behavior -- the use of international institutions, informal alignments and economic instruments such as sanctions -- to constrain the power and threatening behavior of dominant actors. Much of International Relations scholarship fails to capture the use of these non-military instruments for constraining superior power. The soft balancing debate for over a decade has generated much literature and criticisms. However, it has been used exclusively in the context of responses by second-tier states toward U.S. power. This book expands and tests soft balancing arguments to historical eras (such as the Concert of Europe, and the League of Nations during the interwar period) and the emerging/resurging powers, China and Russia while responding to criticisms aired against the concept and strategy. It seeks to explore: under what conditions do states resort to soft balancing as opposed to hard balancing (relying on formal military alliances and intense arms buildups)? When do they combine both? What are the differences and similarities between the 20th and 21st century cases of soft balancing--one under multipolarity, the other under near-unipolarity? When do soft balancing efforts elicit hostile reactions and when do they produce positive results? Finally, what are the implications of soft balancing for the rise of new great powers and the international order, especially conflict and cooperation among them in the 21st century’s globalized international system?

 

Bio: T.V. Paul is James McGill Professor of International Relations in the Department of Political Science at McGill University, Montreal and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada. He was President of International Studies Association (ISA) during 2016-17. Paul is the author or editor of 18 books and over 70 scholarly articles/book chapters in the fields of International Relations, International Security, and South Asia. He is the author of the books: The Warrior State: Pakistan in the Contemporary World (Oxford, 2013); Globalization and the National Security State (with N. Ripsman, Oxford, 2010); The Tradition of Non-use of Nuclear Weapons (Stanford, 2009); India in the World Order: Searching for Major Power Status (with B.R. Nayar Cambridge, 2002); Power versus Prudence: Why Nations Forgo Nuclear Weapons (McGill-Queen’s, 2000); and Asymmetric Conflicts: War Initiation by Weaker Powers (Cambridge, 1994). Paul currently serves as the editor of the Georgetown University Press book series: South Asia in World Affairs. For more, see: www.tvpaul.com

 

T.V. Paul James McGill Professor of International Relations McGill University
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Matteo Renzi, former Prime Minister of Italy


Matteo Renzi was born in Florence in January 1975. In 2004 he was elected president of the province of Florence; five years later, in 2009, he was elected Mayor of Florence. In 2012 he ran in the primary elections for the centre-left, losing in the run-off. In 2013 he stood once again in the primaries, this time for leader of the Italian Democratic Party (Partito Democratico, PD), winning with 67.5% of the vote.

On February 22, 2014, following the resignation of Enrico Letta and after a vote by a large majority within the PD, he became President of the Council of Ministers (Prime Minister of Italy), the youngest in the history of Italy. After the negative result of the constitutional referendum on December 4, 2016, Matteo Renzi resigned as Prime Minister. 
 
In April 2017, almost two million voters took part in the primary elections for Secretary of the PD. Renzi was re-elected with 69% of the votes cast. Following the results of the Italian parliamentary election, in March 2018 he resigned as Leader of the PD.
 
Matteo Renzi is currently Senator for the Electoral College of Florence, Scandicci, Signa, Lastra a Signa and Impruneta. His activity as a politician has been accompanied by his writing, which includes the books Fuori! (2011), Stilnovo (2012), Oltre la rottamazione (2013), and Avanti! Perché l’Italia non si ferma (2017). He has also taught at Stanford's Florence campus in recent years. 
Matteo Renzi, former Prime Minister of Italy speaker
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Manuel Ramos is a Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy (MIP) student at Stanford University in the Class of 2019. He spent this past summer working on justice issues in Kenya for the World Bank's Development Impact Evaluation (DIME). Funding is made available to MIP students for 10-week summer internships with organizations that work on international policy issues. 

 

Check out the full article on Medium.

 
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As Stanford’s fall quarter draws to a close, the first cohort of students who are participating in Freeman Spogli Institute’s (FSI) inaugural overseas program in Beijing embarked on their final field excursion. The 8 students and 4 Stanford faculty traveled first to Jinan city (济南) (capital of Shandong province), then to Zouping county (邹平), both located in China’s eastern region of Shandong (山东).

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Stanford China Studies in Beijing students and faculty being greeted by their hosts in Jinan, Shandong

Three Stanford Master’s in International Policy students and 5 undergraduate students are participating in this pilot program in Beijing at the Stanford Center at Peking University (SCPKU). The pilot program is being offered by FSl in cooperation with Peking University. Details regarding student activities, reflections and earlier travels can be found here.

This third and final trip was significant not only for the wide-ranging sites that the students saw, but also because Zouping County has a storied connection to the wider community of China scholars in the U.S. and to Stanford. Zouping county was the first rural site in China where foreign scholars were given official access to conduct field research in the 1980’s after Deng Xiaoping’s Opening and Reform in 1978. The late Professor Michel Oksenberg (1938-2001), senior fellow at Shorenstein APARC and FSl, who also served as a key member of the U.S. National Security Council under President Jimmy Carter, spearheaded this effort, which brought over eighty U.S. academics to the area between 1984 and 1991 (For more details re. that history, please see here).

The students’ field trip included visits with those at the top of the official pyramid to the village grassroots, including meetings with the Mayor and Vice Mayor of Jinan (pop: 6.8 million) and City Planning officials there; plus local city officials in Zouping County. Students and faculty viewed urban plans for the Jinan International Medical and Science Center and toured the corporate conglomerate, Shandong Weiqiao Pioneer Group (山东魏橋创业集团有限公司) that owns the largest textile factory in the world; and Xiwang Group, Ltd. (西王集团有限公司) whose main lines of business are corn oil production and structural steel. In some ways, the site visits reminded one of China’s economic rise as the manufacturing hub of the world; and its beckoning future as a science and technology giant.

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China Studies in Beijing students and faculty viewing plans for the Jinan International Medical and Science Center

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(From left to right): Students -- Drew Hasson (MIP second year student); Lucas Hornsby (sophomore); Isaac Kipust (junior); Jenn Hu (sophomore); and Cathy Dao (sophomore) – and Stanford faculty meeting with Mayor and Vice Mayor of Jinan city

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(From front, left to back, right): Profs. Jean Oi, Andrew Walder, Scott Rozelle, Tom Fingar stop by at the company store inside Xiwang Group

A highlight of the trip also included the village of Wangjing, Linchi Township, also in Zouping County. Surrounded by village children, mixing with residents and exchanging high-fives with “the kids [and] the grandmothers, ” Stanford students got a chance to enter ordinary homes and see what village life is like in one (albeit affluent and well-developed) township of Linchi.

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Professor Scott Rozelle, joined by Isaac Kipust, Lucas Hornsy and Prof. Tom Fingar, engage with village residents of Wangjing

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Drew Hasson exchanging high-fives with the residents of Wangjing village

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Students and faculty crowded into a village's home

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Isaac Kipust playing with the villager's son

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Three boys from Wangjing village with Isaac Kipust and Prof. Scott Rozelle

By the village square, Professor Scott Rozelle even took the opportunity to challenge two village boys to strive for not only a college degree, but a graduate degree; and not just an M.A. but a Ph.D. – and not just at any university, but at Stanford University! One day, perhaps – who knows? – Stanford may find itself conferring a doctoral degree to a student who calls Wangjing village his home.

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What’s an M.A.? Not higher than a Ph.D.! Prof. Scott Rozelle in conversation with two village boys in the town square at Wangjing

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And the laughing continues . . .

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Scott Rozelle in conversation with the boys as Profs. Jean Oi and Andrew Walder look on

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All the students, faculty and residents of Wangjing village, Zouping county, gather for the final photo

Students have gone on three field trips during the course of this overseas program – an excursion to the Great Wall at Jinshanling and to Chengde, a “mountain resort” of the Qing Dynasty court; China’s Northeast region, including to the cities of Dalian, Dandong and Jinzhou (see report here); and, now, Shandong province to China’s east. In addition to these field trips, students have also had unparalleled access to speakers from China’s National Development and Reform Commission, which operates directly under China’s State Council; prominent venture capitalistsand start-up entrepreneurs; and executives from large Chinese multinationals. Students have also enjoyed visits to China’s Foreign Ministry for discussions with experts on U.S.-China relations; as well as to the U.S. Embassy, engaging in discussions with its staff on U.S.-China trade tensions and geopolitical relations.  Students have not only accessed the halls of power in China, however, but have also visited peri-urban migrant communities and schools for children of migrant workers.

The China Studies in Beijing Program lasts the length of an academic quarterat Stanford – i.e., a mere eleven weeks – and yet it provided diverse opportunities for students to explore multiple facets of this complex and kaleidoscopic nation – from officialdom to ordinary villages; Beijing’s high-tech entrepreneurs to migrant children; international relations experts to corporate executives at China’s MNCs. Even while taking intensive courses taught by leading Stanford scholars on China’s economy, society, international relations and politics, students also enjoyed weekly brown-bag seminars led by guest speakers who spoke on the current state of U.S.-China relations; China-North Korea trade; U.S.-China military competition; China’s growing middle class; and the country’s severe urban-rural divide.

Pending final university approval, the application page for China Studies in Beijing’s Fall 2019 program will open soon. Please stay tuned for more information here or email Patrick Laboon, FSI’s Academic Program Manager, at plaboon@stanford.edu for updates. We anticipate the due date for candidate statement of interest and application to be set for the end of January.

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Yvonne Lee, Summer Intern at Carnegie-Tsinghua Center
Yvonne Lee, ’19, spent 10 weeks interning at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing, China.
Courtesy Yvonne Lee
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Co-sponsored by the Southeast Asia Program and

the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law

Indonesia features Southeast Asia’s most vibrant and dynamic democracy, but debilitating institutional dysfunctions persist.  Age-old patronage-style practices remain commonplace, despite voter demands for governance reform.  In effect, two mutually incompatible systems operate simultaneously: the rule of law on the one hand—“Ruler’s Law” on the other.  The disarray provides space for mafias and Islamist fringe groups to wield clout.  The contradiction tends to deter investment that Indonesia sorely needs in order to escape a “middle-income trap.”  What are the prospects for change in the April 2019 national elections?  Join the Indonesia political analyst Kevin O’Rourke for a presentation and discussion of poll data, political trends, and potential post-2019 scenarios in the world’s fourth most populous country. 

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Kevin O’Rourke’s Reformasi Weekly analyzes politics and policy-making for organizations operating in Indonesia. Subscribers include embassies, NGOs, universities, and companies. His firm, Reformasi Information Services, provides political risk consul­ting and customized research. His latest publication, 2019 Election Primer: Players, Playing Field and Scenarios (Nov. 2018), reviews in detail the rules, issues, and possible results of the country’s nationwide elections in April 2019. Earlier writings include Who’s Who in Yudhoyono’s Indonesia (2010) and Reformasi: The Struggle for Power in Post-Soeharto Indonesia (2002). Kevin started his career in Indonesia in 1994 as an equity research analyst. He is a graduate of Harvard University with an honors degree in government.

Philippines Conference Room Encina Hall, 3rd Floor 616 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305
Kevin O’Rourke Writer and producer, Reformasi Weekly Review of Indonesian politics and policymaking
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Labor market duality refers to the coexistence of temporary workers with low dismissal costs and permanent workers with high dismissal costs within the same firms. The prevalence of temporary employment is a common feature in several countries, such as Continental European countries. Further, since the 1980s, the Japanese labor market has been experiencing a substantial increase in temporary jobs. The quality of temporary jobs tends to be lower than that of permanent jobs (e.g., the former includes lesser job security, lower wages, and fewer training opportunities compared to the latter). For this reason, the causes and consequences of widespread temporary employment have both policy and academic implications. To date, most of the research on this topic has focused on the supply side of labor markets (demographic changes in workforce), macroeconomic impacts (business cycles), and labor-market institutions. However, since the majority of temporary workers tends to be involuntary, the demand-side analysis is important, as well. It has rarely been examined how market competition would affect firms’ demand for temporary and permanent labor, particularly within the context of economic globalization.

Our study attempts to fill this gap. By proposing a heterogeneous-firm trade model with a dual labor market, we examine the relations between the demand for temporary and permanent workers and economic globalization. Our model highlights intensified product market competition as a driving force behind the shift in demand from permanent to temporary workers. In addition, our model demonstrates that international outsourcing effectively reduces labor adjustment costs, which decreases the demand for permanent workers. Using industry-level data from the Japanese manufacturing sector, we empirically test the relations between the demand for temporary and permanent workers and economic globalization and find that they support most of our theoretical predictions.

 

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Hitoshi Sato joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) during the 2018–2019 academic year from the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO), a national research institute in Japan, where he currently serves as a senior chief research fellow. Sato’s field of study is international trade, and his current research interests include the relationships between internationalization of firms and labor markets. His research efforts have been published in journals, books, and policy reports, including the Journal of Japanese and International Economies. Further, Sato has been appointed as a consulting fellow by the Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry since 2013. He received his PhD in economics from the University of Wisconsin–Madison in 2006.

Philippines Conference Room Encina Hall, 3rd Floor 616 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305
616 Serra StreetEncina Hall E301Stanford, CA94305-6055
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Dr. Hitoshi Sato joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) for the 2018 year from the Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO) in Japan, where he serves as Senior Chief Research Fellow.  He will be working on the internationalization of firms, management practices, and development.  Dr. Sato received his Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison. 
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