Nuclear Learning Revisited
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Amandeep Singh Gill is a visiting fellow at CISAC. He is a member of the Indian Foreign Service and has served in the Indian Mission to the United Nations in Geneva, the Indian Embassy in Tehran and the High Commission of India in Colombo. At headquarters in New Delhi, he has served twice in the Disarmament and International Security Affairs Division of the Ministry of External Affairs from 1998 to 2001 and again from 2006 to 2008 at critical junctures in India’s nuclear diplomacy. He was a member of the Indian delegation to the Conference on Disarmament during the negotiations on the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. He has also served as an expert on the UN Secretary General’s panels of experts on Small Arms and Light Weapons and on Missiles.
His research priorities include disarmament, arms control and non proliferation, Asian regional security and human security issues. He is currently working on the interaction of nuclear policies of major states, particularly in Asia.
Before joining the Indian Foreign Service, Amandeep Gill worked as a telecommunications engineer. He retains an abiding interest in the interaction of science, security and politics. He is founder of a non-profit called Farmers First Foundation that seeks to reclaim agriculture for the farmers and demonstrate the viability of integrated agriculture in harmony with nature.
David Holloway is the Raymond A. Spruance Professor of International History, a professor of political science, and an FSI senior fellow. He was co-director of CISAC from 1991 to 1997, and director of FSI from 1998 to 2003. His research focuses on the international history of nuclear weapons, on science and technology in the Soviet Union, and on the relationship between international history and international relations theory. His book Stalin and the Bomb: The Soviet Union and Atomic Energy, 1939-1956 (Yale University Press, 1994) was chosen by the New York Times Book Review as one of the 11 best books of 1994, and it won the Vucinich and Shulman prizes of the American Association for the Advancement of Slavic Studies. It has been translated into six languages, most recently into Czech in 2008. Holloway also wrote The Soviet Union and the Arms Race (1983) and co-authored The Reagan Strategic Defense Initiative: Technical, Political and Arms Control Assessment (1984). He has contributed to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Foreign Affairs, and other scholarly journals.
Since joining the Stanford faculty in 1986 -- first as a professor of political science and later (in 1996) as a professor of history as well -- Holloway has served as chair and co-chair of the International Relations Program (1989-1991), and as associate dean in the School of Humanities and Sciences (1997-1998). Before coming to Stanford, he taught at the University of Lancaster (1967-1970) and the University of Edinburgh (1970-1986). Born in Dublin, Ireland, he received his undergraduate degree in modern languages and literature, and his PhD in social and political sciences, both from Cambridge University.
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Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
Amandeep Singh Gill
CISAC Visiting Scholar
Speaker
David Holloway
CISAC
Stanford University
Encina Hall, E214
Stanford, CA 94305-6165
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David.Holloway@stanford.edu
Senior Fellow Emeritus at the Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies
Raymond A. Spruance Professor of International History
David Holloway is the Raymond A. Spruance Professor of International History, a professor of political science, and an FSI senior fellow. He was co-director of CISAC from 1991 to 1997, and director of FSI from 1998 to 2003. His research focuses on the international history of nuclear weapons, on science and technology in the Soviet Union, and on the relationship between international history and international relations theory. His book Stalin and the Bomb: The Soviet Union and Atomic Energy, 1939-1956 (Yale University Press, 1994) was chosen by the New York Times Book Review as one of the 11 best books of 1994, and it won the Vucinich and Shulman prizes of the American Association for the Advancement of Slavic Studies. It has been translated into seven languages, most recently into Chinese. The Chinese translation is due to be published later in 2018. Holloway also wrote The Soviet Union and the Arms Race (1983) and co-authored The Reagan Strategic Defense Initiative: Technical, Political and Arms Control Assessment (1984). He has contributed to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Foreign Affairs, and other scholarly journals.
Since joining the Stanford faculty in 1986 -- first as a professor of political science and later (in 1996) as a professor of history as well -- Holloway has served as chair and co-chair of the International Relations Program (1989-1991), and as associate dean in the School of Humanities and Sciences (1997-1998). Before coming to Stanford, he taught at the University of Lancaster (1967-1970) and the University of Edinburgh (1970-1986). Born in Dublin, Ireland, he received his undergraduate degree in modern languages and literature, and his PhD in social and political sciences, both from Cambridge University.
Faculty member at the Center for International Security and Cooperation
Affiliated faculty at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
Affiliated faculty at The Europe Center
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Seminars
Spies and Terrorists: Subversive Networks Across Ideologies and Times
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Clandestine craft and low-tech methods still serve to evade and attack hi-tech defenses. Technologies change, yet covert organizing principles persist. They can be traced through time and across different perpetrators - particularly terrorist and espionage networks - as different as al Qaeda and the Soviet KGB. The talk will use these two case studies to illustrate the underlying principles of how clandestine networks still apply strategies to limit information, connectivity, and traceable technology use in order to enhance their survival and asymmetric capabilities against superior opponents. Strategies evolve, but some of the core principles remain. Their better understanding sheds new light on organizational survival and national/international security issues. The research draws on the book manuscript in progress using organization and information theories, with discourse and technical analysis methods, to systematically examine documentary evidence found in the Hoover Institution Archives as well as the contemporary primary and other sources.
Katya Drozdova is a Senior Research Scientist at National Security Innovations (NSI) and Visiting Scholar at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. Dr. Drozdova's research focuses on the interplay between human and technological networks in organizations, with emphasis on asymmetric threats and US national security implications. Her work examines how organizations use technology to counter and conceal their human network vulnerabilities. This covers problems of countering terrorism, insurgency, espionage and weapons of mass destruction proliferation; advancing cyber- and energy security; and strengthening both security as well as liberty. She has published on issues ranging from organizational survival to intelligence analysis and defense policy. Katya conducts academic as well as applied research providing actionable findings and analytic tools to the US Department of Defense and Intelligence Community via NSI. Earlier, she has served as a Research Scholar at New York University's (NYU) Alexander Hamilton Center, as well as Science Fellow and researcher with NSA-funded Consortium for Research on Information Security and Policy at Stanford University's Center for International Security And Cooperation (CISAC), among others. Katya earned her PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business, Department of Information, Operations, and Management Sciences (MA in International Policy Studies and BA in International Relations and from Stanford University).
Martha Crenshaw is a senior fellow at CISAC and FSI and a professor of political science by courtesy. She was the Colin and Nancy Campbell Professor of Global Issues and Democratic Thought and professor of government at Wesleyan University in Middletown, Conn., from 1974 to 2007. Her current research focuses on innovation in terrorist campaigns, the distinction between "old" and "new" terrorism, why the United States is the target of terrorism, and the effectiveness of counterterrorism policies.
She has written extensively on the issue of political terrorism; her first article, "The Concept of Revolutionary Terrorism," was published in the Journal of Conflict Resolution in 1972. Her recent work includes "Terrorism, Strategies, and Grand Strategies," in Attacking Terrorism (Georgetown University Press), "Terrorism and Global Security," in Leashing the Dogs of War: Conflict Management in a Divided World (United States Institute of Peace Press), and "Explaining Suicide Terrorism: A Review Essay," in the journal Security Studies. She is also the editor of a projected volume, The Consequences of Counterterrorist Policies in Democracies, for the Russell Sage Foundation in New York.
She served on the Executive Board of Women in International Security and chaired the American Political Science Association (APSA) Task Force on Political Violence and Terrorism. She has also served on the Council of the APSA and is a former President and Councilor of the International Society of Political Psychology (ISPP). In 2004 ISPP awarded her its Nevitt Sanford Award for Distinguished Scientific Contribution and in 2005 the Jeanne Knutson award for service to the society. She serves on the editorial boards of the journals International Security, Orbis, Political Psychology, Security Studies, and Terrorism and Political Violence. She coordinated the working group on political explanations of terrorism for the 2005 Club de Madrid International Summit on Democracy, Terrorism and Security. She is a lead investigator with the National Center for the Study of Terrorism and the Response to Terrorism (START) at the University of Maryland, funded by the Department of Homeland Security. She was a Guggenheim Fellow in 2005-2006. She served on the Committee on Law and Justice and the Committee on Determining Basic Research Needs to Interrupt the Improvised Explosive Device Delivery Chain of the National Research Council of the National Academies of Science. She was a senior fellow at the National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism in Oklahoma City for 2006-2007.
Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
Katya Drozdova
Visiting Scholar, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, and Senior Research Scientist, National Security Innovations
Speaker
Martha Crenshaw
Professor of Political Science (by courtesy) and Senior Fellow at CISAC and FSI
Commentator
Seminars
Nuclear Energy in Growing Economies: Mongolia and North East Asia
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Long-term demand for nuclear fuel is high as demonstrated by the continued rise in activities such as uranium mining and milling, enrichment, and fuel fabrication. At a recent international conference in Beijing on nuclear energy, IAEA officials stated that the global financial crisis is unlikely to deter the increasing long-term demand for new nuclear power plants. In order to limit the proliferation risk, the IAEA suggested the concept of multinational nuclear arrangements and member countries followed up with various related proposals. A few projects at the front-end of the nuclear fuel cycle are reviewed in the context of such multinational arrangements. Policies of two uranium-producing countries, Mongolia (a new supplier) and Kazakhstan (a relatively new supplier) are compared. The development at the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle is reviewed in the context of collaboration of supplier countries and countries with strong technological capability and demand such as Russia, France, China, Japan, and India.
Undraa Agvaanluvsan is a visiting professor at CISAC. Her research covers the technical and policy aspects of the uranium and nuclear energy industry. Mongolia, her homeland, has a large reserve of natural uranium that it wants to develop for economic and strategic purposes. Similar to other developing nations, Mongolia also is considering nuclear power to help reduce domestic pollution and meet growing demand for electricity. In this context, Agvaanluvsan is analyzing Mongolia's uranium mining and processing policies to compare this emerging industry with parallel developments in Kazakhstan and countries in southern Africa. She also is comparing Mongolia's potential role as a uranium supplier to that of Canada's and Australia's.
Agvaanluvsan received her bachelor's (1994) and master's (1995) degrees in physics from the National University of Mongolia. From 1996-97, she studied high energy physics at the International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste, Italy. Agvaanluvsan earned her doctorate in 2002 from North Carolina State University in Raleigh, North Carolina, studying nuclear reactions and quantum chaos in nuclei. Following completion of her doctorate, she conducted postdoctoral research work in the Nuclear Experimental Physics group at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
In addition to Agvannluvsan's scientific and policy analysis work, in 2008 she served as an adviser to Mongolia's Minister of Foreign Affairs. Agvaanluvsan also is director of the recently established Mongolian-American (MonAme) Scientific Research Center in Ulaanbaatar, which focuses on energy, the environment and mineral processing technologies. In September 2008, she helped organize MonAme's first international meeting, the "Ulaanbaatar Conference on Nuclear Physics and Applications," in Mongolia's capital.
Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
Undraa Agvaanluvsan
CISAC Visiting Professor
Speaker
Seminars
Asia's Rising Space Powers: Emerging Capabilities and Possible U.S. Responses
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Abstract: China's three human spaceflights (2003, 2005, and 2008) and 2007 anti-satellite test have put the world on notice that a new geography is emerging in 21st Century space competition, which also includes several other leading Asian countries: India, Japan, and South Korea. North Korea is also desperately trying to enter the club of space-faring nations. Why are Asian states today so interested in space? What are their evolving capabilities, in both the civilian and military sectors? And how are these countries' activities likely to affect the interests of the United States? This presentation will cover each of these issues, as well as emerging Obama administration space policies, particularly in regard to China. (Dr. Moltz recently returned from research trips to South Korea and Japan, where he conducted extensive interviews with space officials and analysts. His talk is based on a book manuscript he is currently writing.)
James Clay Moltz holds a joint appointment as an associate professor in the Department of National Security Affairs and in the Space Systems Academic Group at the Naval Postgraduate School. >From 1993 to 2007, he worked at the Monterey Institute of International Studies' Center for Nonproliferation Studies, where he served as deputy director from 2003-07. Dr. Moltz is the author (most recently) of The Politics of Space Security: Strategic Restraint and the Pursuit of National Interests (Stanford University Press, 2008). He received his Ph.D. and M.A. in Political Science from the University of California at Berkeley and holds an M.A. in Russian and East European Studies and a B.A. in International Relations (with Distinction) from Stanford University. Dr. Moltz serves as a consultant to the NASA Ames Research Center, where he chairs the Space Futures Analysis Group.
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Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
Clay Moltz
Associate Professor, Naval Postgraduate School
Speaker
Seminars
Better Safe than Sorry
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In 2008, the iconic doomsday clock of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists was set at five minutes to midnight-two minutes closer to Armageddon than in 1962, when John F. Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev went eyeball to eyeball over missiles in Cuba! We still live in an echo chamber of fear, after eight years in which the Bush administration and its harshest critics reinforced each other's worst fears about the Bomb. And yet, there have been no mushroom clouds or acts of nuclear terrorism since the Soviet Union dissolved, let alone since 9/11.
Our worst fears still could be realized at any time, but Michael Krepon argues that the United States has never possessed more tools and capacity to reduce nuclear dangers than it does today - from containment and deterrence to diplomacy, military strength, and arms control. The bloated nuclear arsenals of the Cold War years have been greatly reduced, nuclear weapon testing has almost ended, and all but eight countries have pledged not to acquire the Bomb. Major powers have less use for the Bomb than at any time in the past. Thus, despite wars, crises, and Murphy's Law, the dark shadows cast by nuclear weapons can continue to recede.
Krepon believes that positive trends can continue, even in the face of the twin threats of nuclear terrorism and proliferation that have been exacerbated by the Bush administration's pursuit of a war of choice in Iraq based on false assumptions. Krepon advocates a "back to basics" approach to reducing nuclear dangers, reversing the Bush administration's denigration of diplomacy, deterrence, containment, and arms control. As he sees it, "The United States has stumbled before, but America has also made it through hard times and rebounded. With wisdom, persistence, and luck, another dark passage can be successfully navigated."
Michael Krepon is Co-founder of the Henry L. Stimson Center and the author or editor of thirteen books and over 350 articles. Prior to co-founding the Stimson Center, Krepon worked at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency during the Carter administration, and in the US House of Representatives, assisting Congressman Norm Dicks. He received an MA from the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University and a BA from Franklin & Marshall College. He also studied Arabic at the American University in Cairo, Egypt.
Krepon divides his time between Stimson's South Asia and Space Security projects. The South Asia project concentrates on escalation control, nuclear risk reduction, confidence building, and peace making between India and Pakistan. This project entails field work, publications, and Washington-based programming, including a visiting fellowship program. The Space Security project seeks to promote a Code of Conduct for responsible space-faring nations and works toward stronger international norms for the peaceful uses of outer space.
Krepon also teaches in the Politics Department at the University of Virginia.
Reuben W. Hills Conference Room
Michael Krepon
Co-founder, Henry L. Stimson Center
Speaker
Seminars
Former policy planning director, democracy expert appointed to FSI leadership positions
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Stephen D. Krasner, the Graham H. Stuart Professor of International Relations, and senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and the Hoover Institution, has been named deputy director of FSI, announced FSI Director Coit D. Blacker, the Olivier Nomellini Professor in International Studies. Larry Diamond, a senior fellow at FSI and the Hoover Institution, and professor, by courtesy, of political science and sociology, has been named director of FSI's Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL).
Krasner succeeds political science Professor Michael McFaul, former deputy director of FSI and CDDRL director, who has joined the Obama administration as special assistant to the president for National Security Affairs and senior director for Russian and Eurasian Affairs at the National Security Council. Diamond will direct CDDRL while McFaul is on leave.
"We are delighted that Steve Krasner and Larry Diamond are assuming these leadership roles at this dynamic time in FSI's growth and development," said Blacker. "Steve and Larry's exemplary scholarship, research, and teaching, and their passionate commitment to the expansion of democracy and good governance, are a wellspring of inspiration to Stanford faculty and students, and to current and aspiring leaders the world over."
Krasner served as deputy director of FSI and CDDRL director from January 2003 to January of 2005. He then served as director of policy planning at the U.S. Department of State from February 2005 through April of 2007. In that role, Krasner was the driving force behind foreign assistance reform designed to more effectively target American foreign aid. He was also involved in activities related to the promotion of good governance and democratic institutions around the world.
Among extensive publications, Krasner is the author of Defending the National Interest: Raw Materials Investment and American Foreign Policy (1978), Structural Conflict: The Third World Against Global Liberalism (1985), and Sovereignty: Organized Hypocrisy (1999). Publications he has edited include Problematic Sovereignty: Contested Rules and Political Possibilities (2001). He taught at Harvard and UCLA before coming to Stanford in 1981.
Krasner received a BA in history from Cornell University, an MA in international affairs from Columbia University, and a PhD in political science from Harvard. He is a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Diamond is the founding coeditor of the Journal of Democracy, the co-director of the International Forum for Democratic Studies of the National Endowment for Democracy, and has been coordinating CDDRL's democracy program. His newest book, The Spirit of Democracy: The Struggle to Build Free Societies Throughout the World (Times Books, 2008), explores the sources of democratic progress and stress and the prospects for future democratic expansion.
Diamond's other published works include Squandered Victory: The American Occupation and the Bungled Effort to Bring Democracy to Iraq (Times Books, 2005), Developing Democracy: Toward Consolidation (1999), Promoting Democracy in the 1990s (1995), and Class, Ethnicity, and Democracy in Nigeria (1998).
In May 2007, Diamond was named "Teacher of the Year" by the Associated Students of Stanford University for teaching "that transcends political and ideological barriers." At Stanford Commencement ceremonies in June 2007, he was honored with the Dinkelspiel Award for Distinctive Contributions to Undergraduate Education and cited, inter alia, for "the example he sets as a scholar and public intellectual, sharing his passion for democratization, peaceful transitions, and the idea that each of us can contribute to making the world a better place."
Diamond received a BA, MA and PhD from Stanford, all in sociology.
Krasner and Diamond are part of the distinguished Stanford faculty group who lead the Draper Hills Summer Fellows on Democracy and Development Program each summer, which brings to Stanford some 30 rising leaders from major transitioning countries such as Russia, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nigeria, and Kenya to examine and foster linkages among democracy, sustainable economic development, and good governance.
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Russia and the Global Financial Crisis: The End of "Putinism"?
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Given the dramatic change in Russia's economic circumstances a year after Medvedev's ascendancy to president and Putin's move to the office of prime minister, now is a particularly appropriate time to evaluate the political causes and effects of Russia's latest economic troubles. This article surveys Putin's economic legacy in Russi and argues that despite eight years of rapid growth, by the first quarter of 2009, Russia became caught in the same cycle of problems that it suffered in the 1990's when growth was negative, unemployment and inflation were high, and oil export prices were low. The same weak manufacturing sector that characterized Russia in 1998 reemerged from behind the shadow of high world oil prices ten years later.
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The Brown Journal of World Affairs
"New Beginnings" experts offer recommendations to Obama administration for strengthening U.S.-South Korean alliance
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WASHINGTON, D.C.-On the eve of President Obama's first meeting with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, former Ambassadors Michael H. Armacost, Thomas C. Hubbard, and Charles L. "Jack" Pritchard, and other top U.S. experts today presented recommendations to the Obama administration for revitalizing and expanding the United States' alliance with the Republic of Korea (ROK, or South Korea).
"New Beginnings," a nonpartisan group of ten former senior U.S. government officials, scholars, and experts on U.S.-Korean relations co-sponsored by The Korea Society and Stanford University's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center, praised the Obama administration for getting off to a good start in its relations with South Korea. They said that the election of new leaders in Seoul and Washington provided an opportunity to transform the vitally important alliance into a broader and deeper regional and global partnership. They noted that South Korean President Lee Myung-bak is committed to this goal and they urged the two presidents to take steps toward making that vision concrete at their upcoming meeting.
After briefing Obama administration officials, the group today released the report ''New Beginnings'' in the U.S.-ROK Alliance: Recommendations to the Obama Administration at a forum sponsored by the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Following is a summary of the group's observations and recommendations on key U.S.-ROK issues:
North Korea: The regime appears increasingly unlikely to give up its nuclear capabilities. While Six Party Talks should be continued, the United States should consider bilateral talks with North Korea to explore whether a new mix of inducements and pressures might achieve U.S. and South Korean goals. Close coordination with the ROK and Japan is essential. China and Russia will apply only limited pressure to North Korea. The Obama administration should stress that the United States will never "accept" a North Korea with nuclear weapons. The United States must have a consistent, long-term strategy to encourage North Korea's "transformation." The United States, ROK, and Japan should seek a high-level understanding on how to deal with possible future instability in the North and offer to include China in such consultations.
Military Cooperation: The United States should fully implement the Bush administration initiatives to realign U.S. Forces Korea and transfer wartime operational control of South Korean forces to the ROK as scheduled in 2012.
Economic Cooperation: Congress needs to approve in a timely manner the bilateral free trade agreement with South Korea (KORUS FTA). This is especially important in light of the ROK's impending conclusion of a similar agreement with the European Union. Such approval will demonstrate the United States' commitment to free trade as a generator of growth, particularly during times of financial crisis and economic recession.
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