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As the global geopolitical landscape shifts and the United States redefines its role on the world stage, Japan, its closest ally in the Asia-Pacific, faces mounting expectations and emerging opportunities. In recognition of this critical juncture, APARC’s Japan Program and the United States-Japan Foundation convened a timely symposium at Stanford University, Recalibrating U.S.-Japan Collaboration in a Time of Tumult. The event brought together scholars, policymakers, and practitioners to explore how U.S.-Japan relations are adapting to new global realities. Over the course of five thematic sessions, participants engaged in a dialogue that spanned foreign policy, international trade, social governance, civil society, and even the cultural diplomacy of baseball.

📄  Get the event highlights below

📹  Watch the symposium sessions on our YouTube channel >

🔗  Read Nikkei coverage of the event >

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The opening session, “Global Democracy, Foreign Aid, and Regional Security: As the U.S. Pulls Back, Will Tokyo Step Up?,” featured Larry Diamond, Mosbacher Senior Fellow of Global Democracy at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute, Shinichi Kitaoka, former Japanese ambassador to the United Nations and past president of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), along with APARC Japan Program Director Kiyoteru Tsutsui. Together, they examined Japan’s potential to assume a greater leadership role in defending democratic norms and providing regional public goods in an era of American retrenchment. The discussion underscored both Japan’s growing capacity and its constitutional and cultural constraints.

In the second session, “How Tariffs and Trade Wars are Reshaping the Indo-Pacific,” Wendy Cutler of the Asia Society Policy Institute and Peter Wonacott of the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability reflected on the disruptions facing global trade. Drawing on their experience in economic policy and journalism, respectively, they traced how protectionist policies and decoupling strategies are altering regional supply chains. Their analysis emphasized the importance of maintaining open trade flows while also reinforcing economic resilience across the Indo-Pacific.

The third session, “The Future of DEI, ESG, SDGs: Will Japan Follow the U.S. or Stay the Course?,” focused on evolving norms around corporate and social governance. Keiko Tashiro, deputy president at Daiwa Securities Group, joined Gayle Peterson of Oxford’s Saïd Business School and Stanford sociologist Patricia Bromley to evaluate whether Japan’s institutions will align with American trends or continue along a distinct trajectory. Panelists discussed Japan’s historically unique approach to equity and sustainability, noting the domestic implementation of global frameworks such as the UN-sanctioned Sustainable Development Goals.

The fourth session, “Redefining the Relationship Through Civil Society: Burden Sharing, Knowledge Sharing, Picking up the Slack,” included remarks from Mike Berkowitz of the Democracy Funders Network, Laura Deal Lacey of the Milken Institute, and Jacob M. Schlesinger, president and CEO of the United States-Japan Foundation, who explored how non-state actors are increasingly stepping in to fill voids left by governments. The conversation highlighted the growing role of philanthropic networks and think tanks in shaping bilateral cooperation, particularly in areas such as disaster response, democratic resilience, and public diplomacy.

Capping the day’s proceedings was the session titled “Diamond Diplomacy Redux: Baseball as a Bilateral Bridge.” Featuring Stan Kasten, president and CEO of the Los Angeles Dodgers, and Yuriko Gamo Romer, director of the documentary “Diamond Diplomacy,” the discussion viewed U.S.-Japan relations from a cultural diplomacy perspective. The two reflected on the enduring symbolism of baseball in forging people-to-people ties, illustrating how shared pastimes can foster mutual understanding even amid geopolitical uncertainty.

The symposium served as a vital platform for reassessing the U.S.-Japan alliance in a period marked by shifting global norms. As the international system undergoes profound change, the panelists indicated that the robust partnerships must evolve not only through diplomacy and defense but also across the realms of trade, governance, civil society, and cultural exchange.

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Panelists and organizers of the event Recalibrating U.S.-Japan Collaboration in a Time of Tumult gather for a group photo. [Photo Credit: Shabnam Tabesh]
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As geopolitical uncertainty deepens and traditional alliances are tested, APARC’s Japan Program and the United States-Japan Foundation convened thought leaders at Stanford to explore the shifting bilateral cooperation across areas spanning global democracy, economic resilience, civil society and governance, and the unexpected power of baseball diplomacy.

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The following is a guest article written by Makoto Nagasawa, who traveled to the San Francisco Bay Area with other graduate students from the University of Tokyo—under the leadership of Professor Hideto Fukudome—in January 2025. Makoto is also an Associate Professor at Saitama University. SPICE/Stanford collaborates closely with the Graduate School of Education at the University of Tokyo and met with the students during their visit to the Bay Area.

In a contemporary world where knowledge is instantly accessible and the digitalization of education is accelerating, the value of gathering in physical spaces and learning together is being re-evaluated. The intensive seminar on international and cross-cultural education held in the San Francisco Bay Area in late January 2025 vividly demonstrated the unique appeal of in-person global education and the potential for learning that digital platforms alone cannot replicate.

This seminar—a collaboration between the Center for Advanced School Education and Evidence-Based Research (CASEER) at the University of Tokyo and SPICE at Stanford University—was not merely a venue for acquiring knowledge but a precious opportunity for participants to encounter the world through direct exposure and gain new perspectives through interaction with others. The firsthand experience of the current state of elite higher education institutions in the Bay Area, a bastion of liberalism, was an invaluable lesson in understanding live social dynamics.

On the first day at Stanford University, SPICE experts shared a wide range of insights on international and cross-cultural education. Among these, Mariko Yang-Yoshihara’s lecture, which utilized Stanford Professor Ge Wang’s video, provided participants with a stimulating experience to deeply consider the “creation of learning” from non-traditional approaches that transcend existing frameworks. Furthermore, the in-person workshops based on digitally pre-assigned tasks served as an interactive learning environment where first-time participants could share their knowledge and experiences and deepen discussions, fostering a sense of solidarity that is difficult to achieve online. The direct dialogue with Gary Mukai and other SPICE members proved to be of great significance in infusing academic knowledge with real-world context and building human connections. During the sessions at Stanford (photo below courtesy Makoto Nagasawa) students’ laptops were open, and their minds even more so as learning came alive at Stanford with SPICE experts at the table.

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Moreover, visits to cultural areas such as San Francisco’s Chinatown, San Jose’s Japan town and the Japanese American Museum, and the Angel Island Immigration Station were indispensable experiences for connecting knowledge learned in the classroom with the realities of society. In particular, encountering the history of Japanese Americans and the hardships faced by immigrants provided an opportunity to deeply understand the historical experiences of different communities and the complex paths through which present-day society has been shaped. During Gary’s tour of San Jose’s Japan town, he helped to bring the history of Japan town to life by asking the students to compare old photos—page by page—from the early 20th century to the present-day buildings and surroundings; photo below courtesy Makoto Nagasawa.

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“The only source of knowledge is experience,” as Einstein said, a quote mentioned during Professor Stephen Murphy-Shigematsu’s lecture at Stanford. This highlights that experience gained by being present in a place and engaging all five senses remains crucial in grasping the essence of learning, even in today’s increasingly digital world. The sense of presence and enthusiasm gained through co-learning in classrooms, direct dialogue with faculty and fellow participants, and fieldwork are the unique appeals of in-person education that cannot be fully experienced through online-only education.

Through this overseas intensive seminar, participants reaffirmed the significance of the physical presence of universities, the importance of learning together in person, and the value of walking the world with their own feet and experiencing it directly. Even as digital tools evolve, the deep learning and acquisition of diverse perspectives that arise from human interaction are the wellspring of wisdom and power to navigate the complexities of modern society. 

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Japan and the Myth of “Ethnic Homogeneity”: Reflecting on Contemporary Challenges

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Makoto Nagasawa (front row, far right) with Professor Hideto Fukudome (front row, middle), Professor Kazuaki Iwabuchi (front row, second from the right) and graduate students
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Makoto Nagasawa, a doctoral researcher at the University of Tokyo’s Graduate School of Education, reflects on his experience in the SPICE-linked intensive seminar in the San Francisco Bay Area, led by Professor Hideto Fukudome.

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China’s rise as a global power has ushered in a period of strategic flux marked by renewed great power competition, heightened geopolitical uncertainty, and intensifying U.S.-China rivalry. As China's economic and military capabilities have grown, so too have concerns about its long-term intentions, raising the stakes for states attempting to interpret and respond to its foreign policy behavior. In this volatile environment, the ability of states to credibly signal peaceful or aggressive intentions has become a central concern for policymakers and scholars alike. Misunderstandings can escalate into costly miscalculations, especially amid shifting power dynamics, unstable preferences, and growing competition for influence.

Understanding states’ signaling behavior is the research focus of Brandon Yoder, a 2024–25 Stanford Next Asia Policy Fellow at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC). Yoder is a senior lecturer at the Australian National University’s School of Politics and International Relations and the Australian Centre on China in the World. He is also a non-resident research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, Centre on Asia and Globalisation.

While at APARC, Yoder is working with the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab (SNAPL) on projects as part of its research track on shared and varying perceptions in U.S. relations with regional actors in Asia. His research investigates how states communicate their intentions under uncertainty and how these signaling processes shape the prospects for peace or conflict. Combining formal modeling with historical and empirical analysis, Yoder seeks to illuminate how credibility is constructed, interpreted, and contested in strategic interaction, focusing on Chinese foreign policy and U.S.-China dynamics.

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When Theory Meets Practice: Modeling Signaling and Testing It Empirically


Much of Yoder’s research aims to bridge the gap between abstract theory and pressing policy questions. One focus is the ongoing evolution of great power competition and how China's behavior can be better understood through the lens of signaling theory. Yoder applies theoretical findings to Chinese foreign policy to examine “how China can credibly signal its intentions and how others can figure out China's intentions, with an eye toward managing great power competition.”

Yoder’s academic journey began with a long-standing curiosity about China. “I always had an interest in China dating back to high school. It was obviously important but not covered much, so I was curious about it,” he reflects. After college, a few years spent teaching English in China deepened that curiosity and helped build the language skills that would become instrumental in his research. Graduate school provided the theoretical structure for his inquiry, and the challenges of understanding credibility in international politics led him to formal modeling. “In grad school, I became interested in how China could credibly signal its intentions, which led me to game theory,” he recalls. “I essentially taught myself the method over a long period of trial and (tons of) error.”

Beliefs are hard to measure, which makes empirical work very difficult. You can't just use a large-N dataset
Brandon Yoder
Stanford Next Asia Policy Fellow 2024-25

Now, his work weaves together a rigorous theoretical approach to general questions with applications to specific, policy-relevant problems in U.S.-China relations. Despite the appeal of elegant theoretical models, the empirical realities of signaling are anything but simple. Yoder identifies three key challenges in studying the phenomenon.

“One is that you have to formalize your theories, or else you can't possibly keep straight the complexities of rational belief formation mechanisms,” he explains. This realization led him toward game theory.

A second issue is the gap between rationalist models and human behavior. “Actors are not fully rational in their beliefs, so real-world signaling deviates systematically from rationalist predictions. These psychological and rational mechanisms interact in complex ways,” he adds, noting that some of his work tries to integrate both perspectives.

The third challenge lies in measurement. “Beliefs are hard to measure, which makes empirical work very difficult. You can't just use a large-N dataset,” he explains. In response, his empirical approach blends historical case studies with experiments to evaluate how signaling works in specific instances and at the population level.

At SNAPL, Yoder has continued developing several key projects. One model examines how alliance politics are shaped by fears of abandonment or entrapment, concerns that can inhibit alliance formation altogether. Another investigates how rising powers, facing multiple international audiences, can credibly signal peaceful intentions through diplomatic statements, offering insight into the triangular dynamics between the United States, China, and Russia since World War II.

Yoder’s recent work broadens his empirical scope. One survey experiment explores how Australian national identity shapes public attitudes toward China. Another paper argues that war between the United States and China over Taiwan may be less likely than often assumed. A third project develops a model of how smaller Asian states can help moderate U.S.-China competition by avoiding firm alignment with either power. Across these diverse topics, the through line remains the same: understanding how intentions are communicated or miscommunicated between states.

Academic Community and Next Steps


Yoder describes his time at APARC as both intellectually stimulating and refreshingly collaborative. “Mostly just being around really good people, having engaging discussions, and getting feedback” has been a major boost to his research, he says. Conversations with scholars like Jim Fearon and Ken Schultz have sharpened his theoretical thinking, while connections with Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro have deepened his understanding of cross-strait dynamics. He’s also enjoyed working closely with fellow SNAPL postdocs and visiting scholars, and credits their informal discussions as particularly energizing.

SNAPL, directed by Professor Gi-Wook Shin, is an interdisciplinary research initiative housed within APARC addressing pressing social, cultural, economic, and political challenges in Asia through comparative, policy-relevant studies. The lab cultivates the next generation of researchers and policy leaders by offering mentorships and fellowship opportunities for students and emerging scholars. These include two-year postdoctoral fellowships and one-year visiting fellowships, including for scholars from the Asia-Pacific region. Fellows collaborate with Stanford faculty, students, and other researchers to produce interdisciplinary, problem-oriented, and policy-relevant publications. The lab also offers research assistantships and a research workshop to foster academic exchange and mentorship. 

Yoder has been pleasantly surprised by the vibrancy of the intellectual community at APARC and FSI. “There are so many fantastic talks and events, it’s legitimately difficult to go to everything I want to,” he notes. The intersection of APARC, the Political Science Department, and the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) has created what he describes as a deeply interdisciplinary space, one that encourages both breadth and depth in academic inquiry and policy-relevant discussion.

Reflecting on academia, Yoder offers unflinching but thoughtful advice to early-career scholars. “It’s gonna get rough out there; hedge your bets,” he says. Success, in his view, depends on three things: genuine passion, persistence, and luck. “Plenty of talented, hard-working people don't get the breaks they need and their careers flounder,” he explains. For this reason, he encourages young scholars to pursue work they truly enjoy rather than trying to reverse-engineer success. “The process is the payoff, or it’s not worth doing. But be ready to shift to a different career path if it doesn’t work out.”

As he prepares to return to his position at the Australian National University in July, Yoder is eager to continue his work on signaling, great power politics, and Chinese foreign relations. A book project is a possibility, but not a priority — at least not yet. “I keep thinking of too many new articles I want to write,” he says, “so I’d rather do new stuff than expand my old stuff into a book.”

Through rigorous modeling, empirical grounding, and a deep engagement with contemporary strategic challenges, Brandon Yoder’s work offers essential insights into how states interpret signals, manage risks, and shape the evolving landscape of global power.

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Brandon Yoder, APARC’s 2024–25 Stanford Next Asia Policy Fellow, focuses on a central challenge in international politics: how states can credibly signal their intentions and avoid war. His work investigates this question in high-stakes contexts, such as during power shifts, amid strategic uncertainty, and in multi-actor settings where traditional signaling models often fall short.

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China is at the center of global dynamics today. What does its new superpower status mean for the world? For China? How will the worsening U.S.–China tariffs affect world trade? Is China’s clean energy leadership the key to the world’s climate crisis or will China remain the world’s top emitter of greenhouse gases? Would China go to war over Taiwan? Would the U.S.? What are China’s internal challenges? Is this China’s century?  

U.S. high school students wondering about these questions and more, who want to explore the nuance and history behind the headlines, in conversation with diverse experts and classmates, are invited to apply for SPICE’s China Scholars Program.

Fall 2025 China Scholars Program: Introduction to Contemporary China
Application period: April 22 to June 15, 2025
Tuition: $2500

Program dates: August 28 – December 20, 2025

This online, college-level course for advanced 10th through 12th graders provides an overview of China’s internal dynamics and recent history, as well as its complicated relationship with the United States, with critical, timely insights into this superpower of the 21st century.

Kristina Danilenko (Huntersville, NC, Fall 2024 CSP alum) observes, “[W]ith all the generalizations and inaccuracies I hear about China (whether it be its government or people as a whole) due to the volatile political environment right now, taking your class was especially valuable in that I’m able to navigate through these swirling narratives and think critically about the information I’m consuming.”

Each week, CSP students engage with leading scholars and experts on Zoom, read deeply on that week’s topic, and engage in analytical discussion with classmates. In addition to weekly written assignments, students conduct independent research, which culminates in an academic paper. Students will also have an opportunity to meet online with Chinese students enrolled in the Stanford e-China Program.

The program’s interdisciplinary nature encourages wide-ranging student research topics. Recent papers have addressed education (“Gaokao: How Effective Is the Gateway to Chinese Meritocracy?”); economics (“Impacts of Taiwan’s Microchip Monopoly on U.S.–China Economic Relations”); environmental issues (“Till the Well Runs Dry: Water Shortages in Northern China”); cultural politics (“Children and Politics: How Children’s Cinema Shapes China’s Youth”; “Mao’s Playlist: Music of the Cultural Revolution”); as well as language, demographics, literature, and beyond.

“[My son is] getting to watch his research topic on tariffs and China play out in real time (for better or worse),” comments Jaime Zollars, parent of Griffin Zollars (Newbury Park, CA, Fall 2024 CSP alum). “The course has inspired many conversations since, and it really gave him a working base knowledge, strengthened his skills, and solidified his interest in continuing to explore Chinese studies and language alongside economics in college!”

CSP’s rigor helps students build a strong foundation for college and future careers. “This course only solidified my desire to pursue studies pertaining to Chinese politics and history, particularly within the realm of international relations,” reports one Fall 2024 alum. “Yet, even for those whose primary academic aspirations lie elsewhere, the abilities you develop during CSP—whether it involves a deeper understanding of China or building cross-cultural skills—are ones that can be applied across a wide range of fields and pursuits both within and beyond academia.” 

As China’s influence expands, the U.S. is heading towards a shortage in China expertise. CSP alums may ultimately find themselves in high demand.

For more information, please see http://chinascholars.org. Or contact Tanya Lee with questions.

The China Scholars Program is one of several online courses offered by SPICE.

To stay updated on SPICE news, join our email list and follow us on Facebook, X, and Instagram.

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Applications are open for CSP’s “Introduction to Contemporary China” course. Interested students must apply by June 15, 2025.

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In a timely and insightful lecture, Stanford professor Matteo Maggiori, Moghadam Family Professor of Finance at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, delivered the 2025 Hsieh Lecture on “Geoeconomics and the U.S.–China Great Power Competition,” exploring the increasing use of economic tools to exert geopolitical influence in an era of rising global fragmentation.

Geoeconomics, as defined by Maggiori, is the use of existing economic relationships—such as trade networks and financial systems—by powerful states to advance strategic political goals. Maggiori explained that this isn’t just about tariffs or headlines, it’s about shaping long-term global dependencies and controlling the choke points that others can’t easily escape. Maggiori went on to say that, “as economists, we have reduced the notion of power too much to be a synonym with market power, the idea that you can sell your goods at a markup compared to cost. Now, that's certainly a form of power, but when we say that a large country or a corporation is powerful, we really mean something much broader than the ability to charge a markup.”

Throughout the talk, he illustrated how threats to withhold trade or access to financial networks can be more effective than traditional military power, particularly when concentrated choke points—like control over critical technologies or payment systems—leave countries with few alternatives.

Maggiori outlined three major insights for optimal international economic policy:
 

  1. Power-building, not just trade manipulation: Traditional economic tools like tariffs are increasingly used to create dependency, not just manage trade balances.
  2. Security vs. Efficiency: Countries are enacting “economic security policies” that reduce dependence on foreign suppliers—even at the cost of efficiency—leading to a more fragmented global economy.
  3. Limits of Coercion: Hegemons must commit to multilateral norms to maintain influence; otherwise, overreach could prompt countries to decouple entirely.

The talk culminated in a preview of Maggiori’s new research using large language models (LLMs) to analyze earnings calls and analyst reports at scale. His team leveraged AI to detect when companies reacted to government pressure—offering real-time visibility into geoeconomic tensions. Maggiori goes on to explain how tools like these allow us to capture threats that never appear in policy, in fact, “some of the most powerful threats never occur because the target complies.”

Maggiori’s talk emphasizes the need for economists and policymakers to develop and use better tools to measure power, model interdependence, and design policy that balances trade gains with national security; Because this is not just theory, these dynamics are shaping the world we live in today.



 

Watch the Full Talk Here

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Professor Maggiori joined SCCEI and Stanford Libraries to discuss how the U.S. and China apply economic pressure to achieve their political and economic goals, and the economic costs and benefits that this competition is imposing on the world.

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This interview first appeared in the Brazilian newspaper Folha de S.Paolo, on April 6. The following English version was generated using machine translation and subsequently edited for accuracy and clarity.


WASHINGTON — The tariff hike against all countries announced last week by President Donald Trump may bolster China's image, but that doesn't mean China or any other country is poised to replace the United States, says Thomas Fingar, Shorenstein APARC Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford University.

Fingar, a former chief of the State Department's China Division, among other roles in the U.S. Foreign Service and national intelligence, believes that Trump's tariffs will be bad for all nations.

"I hesitate to predict how other countries will react, except that this has more or less given everyone an incentive to bypass the U.S.," he tells Folha.

Donald Trump announced tariffs this week against virtually every country. China has already announced retaliation, imposing a 34% tariff on American products. Are we facing a trade war?

I don't think the war metaphor works for me. I don't know what Trump is trying to do. One could say that this is a game of imposing an outrageous tariff in the hope that specific targets, which are basically all countries, might give in to what they say are their demands. In doing so, they would reduce barriers to trade with the United States. To me, it doesn't make sense with the vast majority of targets of the 10% tariffs.

Why?

I hesitate to predict how other countries will react, except that this has more or less given everyone an incentive to bypass the U.S., to make the U.S. a supplier of last resort, to hold the line, to have a kind of united front to compete with each other.

If the assessment is that the Dutch or the French or the Germans or the Brazilians or somebody else is talking about doing something to eliminate a 10% tariff to gain a comparative advantage in accessing the U.S. market, if that's the logic, then fine. Maybe there's something rational about that, but I think it's more likely that the targets of those low tariffs are just getting together.

My main trade competitor has the same or higher tariffs levied against them. Why should I give in if we are competing on a level playing field?

I think Trump is going to make the U.S. pay a huge geopolitical price. But what he thinks he will gain from this, I don't know. Is it likely that he will achieve anything really significant from it? I doubt it.

You mentioned a geopolitical price tag for the United States. What would it be?

The tendency of much of the world, most of the time, was to try to work with the United States, to the extent that they couldn't automatically do what Washington wanted, but they were inclined to cooperate because they saw it as benign, if not beneficial, to their interests. I think Trump has reversed that. This is going to lead to a disinclination to work with us, an incentive to try to bypass us. I think the inclination now is going to be: I'm not going to vote with the Americans, I'm going to look elsewhere first, for my investment, for my capital, for the market, for what I'm doing, for partners.

But I don't think that these measures are necessarily going to play in favor of any particular country. Maybe China in some places, the European Union in some places, Japan in some places. It's going to be a very different environment for the United States, for American companies and diplomats to operate in. It's going to be much more difficult.

This tariff strategy that you say is hard to understand is seen by some analysts as part of Trump's isolationist policy.

As my kids would say, this is so last century. This is really 19th century, the idea of bringing industries, manufacturing back to the United States. Very little manufacturing, I think, is going to come back to the United States. We have 4% unemployment. We can't fill the jobs that we have now, imagine bringing back manufacturing of basic commodities like shoes, toys, that kind of thing.

That left the United States a long time ago and went to Japan, moved from Japan to Taiwan, moved from Taiwan to South Korea, moved from South Korea to somewhere else, and then moved to China and then to Vietnam. Those things are not coming back here because there's not enough profitability to justify investing in robots and mechanizing those things to bring them back to the United States. Our workforce is small relative to the size of the economy. It's not coming back.

It's already moving from China because labor costs are so high. The fallacy in Trump's logic is that things like furniture, construction, textiles, clothing, and manufacturing would come back. And the people who would actually do the work are the people he's persecuting with his ridiculous immigration policies.

Trump has argued that he imposed the tariffs to curb alleged abuses against the United States that would benefit China. Is he containing Beijing with this move?

I don't think he really cares about containing China. But the answer is no. These moves boost China's image. Beijing has seized on the rhetoric of defending the open, globalized international trading order that the United States has attacked. They will take advantage of that as much as they can. I don't think the tariffs are part of the U.S. rivalry with China. China's rise has not disadvantaged the United States economically — it has done so to Japan, and, to some extent, South Korea and Taiwan, but not the United States. So Trump is using this argument with false, exaggerated, and distorted statements.

Could we witness a change in the world order, the end of the American era and the beginning of a Chinese era?

No.

Not even as a consequence of tariffs?

Absolutely not. Part of the problem is that China's economy is closed. One of the reasons is that it doesn't have a consumer society because people don't have enough income. That's because of the amount of wealth that the state extracts to pay for high-speed rail, military structures, and energy development. Some of that is good, some of it is excess.

U.S. tariffs won’t create a market that can rival the size and influence of the United States. It would have to be somewhere else that is very rich, and China is not very rich. China is barely in the middle-income category, it has a per capita income at a level that Mexico has been at for decades. It's not binary. So, the U.S. retreat from its leadership position in the world order, which I don't necessarily see as a bad thing, doesn't automatically hand that role over to China, Russia, the European Union, Japan, Brazil, the BRICS, or any other set of players.

Can China gain ground by investing more in countries that are affected by tariffs?

China has invested more in countries that are affected by tariffs, like Indonesia and Vietnam. These countries are very wary of Chinese investment for various historical reasons, and to some extent for ethnic reasons. But China is actually cutting back on its overseas investments because its own population is asking: Why are we giving money to countries that are richer than us? That is a reasonable question.

They have real problems meeting the expectations, demands, and needs of their own population, which is now largely urban. The cities have to function, you can't say, "Go back to the farm and do sustainable agriculture." That phase is long gone in China. So they have to spend more. Half of the population still has rural identity cards. That means they don't get free education beyond primary school. That means 50% of the future workforce won't have more than a primary school education. This is a country with enormous challenges. Can they manage them? Probably yes, but there is not much room for maneuver. Their own slowing economy will be hurt by these tariffs. I don't think that's Trump's intention, but it will hurt them.

What impact might the tariffs have on Brazil and Latin America? Do you think China will become more attractive?

I don't know specific commodities from specific places, but my general starting point is that a 10% distribution across Latin America won't have much of an impact on the price for consumers in those countries. You'll export the same amount; we'll pay more for whatever the commodity is, flowers from Colombia, grapes, wine from Argentina or Chile. Since the tariff is general, it doesn't give Chile an advantage on wine over Argentina, because they both have the same amount. Most of what Latin America exports to the United States doesn't go to China.

In short, what are the main consequences of tariffs in terms of the geopolitical landscape and the domestic landscape?

It destabilizes the international trading system that has benefited most countries for a long time. It will force adjustments, that is number one. And number two is that it undermines the image of the United States, and therefore its influence as a stabilizing, predictable, and broadly beneficial member of the international community. It disrupts economies and undermines American influence and attractiveness.

In the end, does anyone benefit from Trump's tariff policies?

No one. This is not a policy that works to anyone's obvious benefit. It upsets everyone. And there is no alternative to the United States, in the sense that the Soviet Union was during the Cold War. China is not that, and China does not want to be that.

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President Trump's tariff policy will serve no one's interests, says Thomas Fingar, a Shorenstein APARC Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

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All successful leaders stand on the shoulders of those who believed in them – people who saw potential they may not have recognized in themselves and helped them find and achieve their purpose, Dina Powell McCormick told a full audience in Stanford’s Bechtel Conference Center on April 14.

A former deputy national security adviser, Powell McCormick discussed her new book, Who Believed in You?: How Purposeful Mentorship Changes the World, with Sheryl Sandberg, former chief operating officer of Meta, at an event hosted by the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). Her career includes service at the highest levels of the U.S. government and Wall Street. She is currently the vice chairman of BDT & MSD Partners. Powell McCormick’s husband, Sen. Dave McCormick (Pa.), was the co-author of the book.

Condoleezza Rice, senior fellow (by courtesy) at FSI and director of the Hoover Institution, introduced Powell McCormick and spoke about their time together working at the U.S. Department of State during the George W. Bush Administration.

Rice said, “She headed education and cultural affairs at a time when we were reaching out as the United States to people who wanted to find the basic liberties that we all enjoy. And, I think it’s fair to say she taught me just about everything that I know about the Middle East.”

Condoleezza Rice speaking at a podium in the Bechtel Conference Center at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.
Former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, a friend and mentor of Dina Powell McCormick, introduced her and her new book, "Who Believed in You?: How Purposeful Mentorship Changes the World". | Rod Searcey

Transformative Mentorship


Powell McCormick said that Rice was the mentor who had the most impact on her life. She and her husband have six daughters, and during COVID, they began to realize the critical need for purposeful mentorship across society.

“It went way past high school graduations and proms that they didn't get to attend,” said Powell McCormick of her daughters’ experience during the pandemic. “It was those first seminal years of having a professor that believed in you, of having a boss that helped you and gave you tough love. And so, we started talking to the girls about the fact that Dave and I wouldn't be where we are today without people who really believed in us and invested in us.”

She started asking people she admired to pinpoint one or two people who had invested in them and contributed to who they are. Her husband recounted a high school experience where his football coach had made a difference in his life by naming him co-captain on the team.

“Dave had never thought of himself as a leader. And that single act is the reason my husband got into West Point – through that coach and being on that football team,” Powell McCormick said.

Sheryl Sandberg [left] and Dina Powell McCormick [right] onstage in front of an audience at the Freeman Spogi Institute for International Studies.
Elizabeth Welborn, a mentee of Dina McCorkick Powell and Sheryl Sandberg, shared with the audience the impact purposeful mentorship made in her life and career. | Rod Searcey

Advocating for Freedom, Democracy


Sandberg noted that Powell McCormick came to America at age 5 from Egypt and spoke no English. She asked her, “How did mentors contribute to your success?”

Powell McCormick mentioned Kay Bailey Hutchinson, a senator from Texas, “the only woman I'd ever seen in a senior role, to be honest, in Texas at that time.”  Hutchinson took an interest in the career growth of a young Powell McCormick.

“She would mentor me and as I was graduating and heading to law school, she said, ‘I think you should come intern for me for a year in Washington.’”

She never forgot what the senator told her: “If you don’t take a risk on yourself, no one else ever will.” Eventually, Powell McCormick worked on the Hill and then in the White House where she met Rice, then Secretary of State. They were both there on 9/11, and Rice asked her to expand her responsibilities. “It changed everything.”

During that time, Powell McCormick recalled an inspirational moment with Rice on a visit to a Middle Eastern country where Rice was asked by a foreign leader about whether she was going to “preach freedom and democracy” to that country’s leadership.

Rice replied, “Your highness, how can I come and preach to you when not that long ago my own country counted my ancestors as three-fifths of a man. Today, you are looking at the first black Secretary of State of the United States of America, and the difference between my country and yours is that we will always be stronger because we hear the will of our people.”
 

We started talking to the girls about the fact that Dave and I wouldn't be where we are today without people who really believed in us and invested in us.
Dina Powell McCormick


In that moment, Powell McCormick said, Rice had taught her so much – “fierceness, grace, and humility.”

In their book, the couple interviewed successful leaders across industries who benefited from their mentors and shares their real-world stories of how their career trajectories were impacted. The book outlines four key elements of transformative mentorship – trust, shared values, meaningful commitment, and instilling confidence.

Powell McCormick said, “Being an entrepreneur, you’re on an island all by yourself. It’s really scary, and particularly we learned this is true for female entrepreneurs outside of the United States.”

She recalled working with a female entrepreneur in Egypt at the American University in Cairo who had an abusive husband and who had secretly started a taxi business (and hid this from her husband).

Powell McCormick told her, “This is incredible. You’ve got to buy another car. You’ve got to do all of this. And so, we helped her with capital, we helped her with education. When she finally told her husband, she thought he was going to freak out and divorce her.”

But then the woman showed him how much money she was making. “Today he is her CFO (chief financial officer) and reports to her,” Powell McCormick said.

[Left to right]: Juliet	deBaubigny, Sheryl Sandberg, Dina Powell McCormick, Condoleezza Rice; Marne Levine
[Left to right]: Juliet deBaubigny, Sheryl Sandberg, Dina Powell McCormick, Condoleezza Rice; Marne Levine | Dina Powell McCormick

‘She Could Do It’


In addition to Rice, the book features stories from some of the most influential leaders across industries, including Satya Nadella, the CEO of Microsoft, Tory Burch, the founder of the women’s fashion empire, Hollywood producer Brian Grazer, as well as political leaders such as Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Maryland Gov. Wes Moore.

Powell McCormick spoke about an Afghanistan businesswoman, Rangina Hamidi, who sold rugs, jewelry, and handicrafts, and then returned the proceeds every month to aspiring female entrepreneurs. Once, a young woman who she was helping told her that her husband had never respected her. But since she had started making money, he began supporting education for females – and especially for their five daughters.

“That woman who will never leave her home, who is illiterate, changed the course of a generation of her family by being a little bit economically independent – because someone told her she could do it,” Powell McCormick said.

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In a conversation about her new book, former deputy national security advisor Dina Powell McCormick explained why mentorship is one of the most powerful forces that can shape a leader’s path forward.

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The following is a guest article written by Geunhyung Kim, a student from South Korea studying at the Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies at Waseda University in Japan. Geunhyung enrolled in the 2025 SPICE/Stanford–Waseda Intensive Course: Exploring Peace in East Asia and Beyond Through the Lenses of Cultural Understanding, Education, and International Relations, which was organized by SPICE and Waseda’s Faculty of Social Sciences and taught by Meiko Kotani. The course brought together students from the Graduate School of Social Sciences, the School of Social Sciences, the Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, the School of International Liberal Studies, and the School of Political Science and Economics. With participants from Japan and international students representing 10 different countries, the course created a truly dynamic and diverse learning environment.

This March, I had the privilege of participating in the 2025 SPICE/Stanford–Waseda Intensive Course on “Exploring Peace in East Asia and Beyond Through the Lenses of Cultural Understanding, Education, and International Relations.” It featured insightful lectures from esteemed professors and a former U.S. Ambassador, focusing on cultural understanding, history, and international relations in the Asia-Pacific region.

A key takeaway from the course that will forever resonate with me is the importance of thinking critically and respecting diverse perspectives. Dr. Gary Mukai’s opening lecture laid a foundational understanding of cultural biases and stereotypes, emphasizing the potential harm of psychological mechanisms that simplify complex entities. He highlighted the crucial need for recognizing and overcoming our own cultural biases. In another session, Mr. Rylan Sekiguchi led an exercise where we compared history textbooks from the United States, South Korea, Japan, China, and Taiwan. This activity underscored the significance of critical thinking and demonstrated why historical education is essential. It illustrated how nations, like individuals, possess unique perspectives shaped by distinct histories and experiences. The central challenge we discussed was not the presence of diverse viewpoints per se, but rather how to constructively engage with these differences to foster regional peace. Dr. Shuoyang Meng’s lecture on knowledge diplomacy and transnational academic mobility further inspired me as a student in higher education to act as a knowledge diplomat for peacebuilding. Ambassador Karl Eikenberry’s insights on the evolving U.S.–China security dynamics and broader security issues in the Asia-Pacific region highlighted the necessity of strategic empathy in international relations.

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The most remarkable feature of the 2025 SPICE/Stanford–Waseda Intensive Course was undoubtedly its interactive environment. The program did a great job of bringing together students from diverse cultural backgrounds, including China, Japan, and South Korea, and succeeded in creating a genuinely safe and welcoming space for open discussions on sensitive historical issues. This atmosphere of openness was instrumental in building trust and fostering a deeper understanding among students. This may seem small, but I believe the experience of participating in such a diverse and collaborative setting has profoundly enriched our understanding of international relations and conflict resolution.

Initially, I was a little skeptical and curious about the feasibility of discussing sustainable peace in East Asia, considering the region’s complex history of tensions and territorial disputes. However, SPICE exceeded expectations by providing a thought-provoking and safe platform for these critical discussions.

I would recommend this course to my peers, as it broadens perspectives and equips future leaders with essential skills for meaningful dialogue on peace and cooperation in East Asia and beyond.

To stay informed of SPICE news, join our email list and follow us on FacebookX, and Instagram.

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Graduate student Geunhyung Kim reflects on her experience participating in the SPICE/Stanford-Waseda intensive course.

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As part of CDDRL’s weekly research seminar series, Francis Fukuyama, Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), delivered a talk on the challenge of bureaucratic authority and delegation. Fukuyama, known for his influential works on state-building and governance, used this talk to trace how scholars and policymakers have grappled with the tension between empowering bureaucracies to act effectively and ensuring they remain accountable to political leaders. The talk was not only a theoretical journey but also a response to current debates about the U.S. administrative state and what meaningful reform should look like.

Fukuyama began with the basics of organizational theory. He explained that hierarchies — systems where authority is ranked and flows from the top down — exist because they reduce "transaction costs," or the costs of coordinating and enforcing agreements between people. This insight, developed by economist Ronald Coase, shows why firms and governments prefer internal structures rather than always relying on markets. Oliver Williamson expanded this to explain how organizations manage uncertainty and complexity. Fukuyama then discussed libertarian ideas, which hoped that technology and open networks could flatten hierarchies. These visions, he noted, largely failed because real-world decisions still require clear lines of authority.

As organizations grew more complex, scholars turned to “principal-agent theory.” In this framework, a "principal" (such as an elected official) delegates tasks to an "agent" (like a bureaucrat), but must ensure the agent acts in their interest. Yet, as Herbert Simon and John DiIulio observed, bureaucrats are not simply self-interested — they are also shaped by professional norms, organizational culture, and personal values. Fukuyama stressed that delegation is unavoidable because lower-level agents often hold critical, local knowledge that distant leaders lack. As economist Friedrich Hayek argued, knowledge is dispersed in society, and central planners cannot predict every situation.

However, delegation creates a dilemma: how to give bureaucrats enough freedom to use their expertise, while still keeping them accountable. Formal mechanisms like audits and punishments help, but informal tools such as trust, shared values, and education are just as crucial. Fukuyama pointed to Japan’s "kanban" manufacturing system and military strategies like "mission orders," where frontline actors are trusted to make decisions based on shared goals.

A major paradox Fukuyama addressed is that while anti-corruption efforts seek to limit bureaucratic discretion, political science research shows that too much constraint stifles effectiveness. He proposed an "inverse-U curve," where both too little and too much autonomy harm performance. The right balance depends on the state’s overall capacity.

Applying this to the U.S., Fukuyama challenged claims that bureaucrats are "out of control." Instead, he argued that America’s federal bureaucracy is over-regulated, bogged down by rigid rules that prioritize compliance over results. His work with Katherine Bersch identifies five existing tools for political control, such as appointment and removal powers, showing that bureaucratic autonomy is already tightly managed.

Fukuyama concluded by advocating for genuine reform: deregulating the bureaucracy, empowering implementers to work alongside policymakers, and rebuilding internal state capacity. Inspired by agile management methods and Jennifer Pahlka’s Recoding America, he argued that a flexible, mission-driven public sector is essential to meet the complex challenges of modern governance.

A full recording of Professor Fukuyama's talk can be viewed below:

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Francis Fukuyama presented his research in a CDDRL seminar on April 3, 2025.
Francis Fukuyama presented his research in a CDDRL seminar on April 3, 2025.
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Francis Fukuyama traces how scholars and policymakers have grappled with the tension between empowering bureaucracies to act effectively and ensuring they remain accountable to political leaders.

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Stanford e-Japan is an online course that teaches Japanese high school students about U.S. society and culture and U.S.–Japan relations. The course introduces students to both U.S. and Japanese perspectives on many historical and contemporary issues. It is offered biannually by the Stanford Program on International and Cross-Cultural Education (SPICE). Stanford e-Japan is currently supported by the Yanai Tadashi Foundation.

In August 2025, the top honorees of the Spring 2024 and the Fall 2024 Stanford e-Japan courses will be honored through an event at Stanford University. SPICE is most grateful to Mr. Tadashi Yanai and the Yanai Foundation for making Stanford e-Japan, including the ceremony in August 2025, possible.

The three Spring 2024 honorees—Aoi Furutani (Saitama Municipal Urawa High School), Komari Machida (Crimson Global Academy), and Sota Tajima (Seiko Gakuin High School)—were selected as the award winners for their coursework and exceptional research essays that focused respectively on “Comparative Analysis of Surrogacy Policies in the United States and Japan: Proposals for Introducing Surrogacy in Japan,” “Futoukou vs. Homeschooling: Exploring Societal Reintegration of Children Outside of Traditional School Systems in Japan and the United States,” and “Synergy in the Stars: How the U.S. and Japan Can Lead the Next Era of Space.”

Ryu Sato (Soka Senior High School) received an honorable mention for his research paper on “Japanese and American Philanthropic Culture in Regard to College Financial Aid.” Sakura Suzuki (Hokkaido Asahikawa Higashi High School) also received an honorable mention for her paper on “Designing School Buildings to Encourage Student Creativity: Comparing Historical Changes in School Buildings in Japan and the United States.”

The three Fall 2024 honorees—Ellen Nema (Junior and Senior High School Affiliated to Showa Pharmaceutical University), Hirotaka Onishi (Kaisei Gakuen High School), and Mia Yakushiji (Murasakino Municipal High School)—will be recognized for their coursework and exceptional research essays that focused respectively on “Breaking the Chain of Poverty in Okinawa: Educational Approaches and Foundations,” “A Time for Reconsideration: Toward a New International Monetary Order,” and “Dual Citizenship in Japan.”

Lynne Mizushima (Keio Shonan Fujisawa Junior & Senior High School) and Kan Sugimi (Isahaya High School) each received an honorable mention for their coursework and research papers on “The Lack of Female Political Leaders in Japan: A Cultural Glass Ceiling” and “Should Bilingual Parents in the U.S. Raise Bilingual Children?”

In the Spring 2024 session of Stanford e-Japan, students from the following schools completed the course: Akita High School (Akita); Chiba Prefectural Kashiwa High School (Chiba); Crimson Global Academy (Tokyo); Doshisha International High School (Kyoto); Hiroshima Global Academy (Hiroshima); Hiroshima International School (Hiroshima); Hokkaido Asahikawa Higashi High School (Hokkaido); Ikeda Senior High School Attached to Osaka Kyoiku University (Osaka); Kadokawa S High School (Ibaraki); Kanazawa University Senior High School (Ishikawa); Keio Shonan Fujisawa Junior & Senior High School (Kanagawa); Kindai University Toyooka Junior and Senior High School (Hyogo); Kyoto Municipal Saikyo Senior High School (Kyoto); La Salle High School (Kagoshima); Matsumoto Fukashi High School (Nagano); Okayama Prefectural Tsuyama Senior High School (Okayama); Saitama Municipal Urawa High School (Saitama); Seiko Gakuin High School (Kanagawa); Senior High School at Komaba, University of Tsukuba (Tokyo); Senior High School at Otsuka, University of Tsukuba (Tokyo); Shibuya Kyoiku Gakuen Shibuya Junior and Senior High School (Tokyo); Soka Senior High School (Tokyo); Tajiminishi High School (Gifu); Tokyo Gakugei University International Secondary School (Tokyo); Tokyo Jogakkan High School (Tokyo); Tokyo Metropolitan Kokusai High School (Tokyo); Tsuchiura Nihon University High School (Ibaraki); and Yokohama International School (Kanagawa).

In the Fall 2024 session of Stanford e-Japan, students from the following schools completed the course: Daiichi High School (Kumamoto); Hachinohe St. Ursula Gakuin High School (Aomori); Hiroo Gakuen High School (Tokyo); Hiroshima Global Academy (Hiroshima); International Christian University High School (Tokyo); Isahaya High School (Nagasaki); Joshigakuin Senior High School (Tokyo); Kaetsu Ariake Senior High School (Tokyo); Kaisei Gakuen (Tokyo); Kanazawa Nishigaoka High School (Ishikawa); Kawawa Senior High School (Kanagawa); Keio Girls Senior High School (Tokyo); Keio Shonan Fujisawa Junior & Senior High School (Kanagawa); Kurume University Senior High School (Fukuoka); Matsuyama South High School (Ehime); Meikei High School (Ibaraki); Murasakino Municipal High School (Kyoto); Nagasaki Nishi High School (Nagasaki); Niigata Prefectural Niigata High School (Niigata); Okayama Prefectural Okayama Asahi Senior High School (Okayama); Ritsumeikan Keisho Senior High School (Hokkaido); Ritsumeikan Uji High School (Kyoto); Sapporo Kaisei Secondary School (Hokkaido); Senior High School at Otsuka, University of Tsukuba (Tokyo); The Junior and Senior High School Affiliated to Showa Pharmaceutical University (Okinawa); Tokyo Gakugei University Senior High School (Tokyo); and Tokyo Metropolitan Nishi High School (Tokyo).


Stanford e-Japan is one of several online courses for high school students offered by SPICE, including the Reischauer Scholars Program, the China Scholars Program, the Sejong Korea Scholars ProgramStanford e-ChinaStanford e-Entrepreneurship Japan, as well as numerous local student programs in Japan. For more information about Stanford e-Japan, please visit stanfordejapan.org.

To stay informed of news about Stanford e-Japan and SPICE’s other programs, join our email list and follow us on FacebookX, and Instagram.

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Congratulations to the students who have been named our top honorees and honorable mention recipients for 2024.

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