Stanford University

9/11 BEFORE & AFTER

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Michael A. McFaul
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Michael A. McFaul - Russian-U.S. relations offer one bright counterpoint to the otherwise gloomy and complex set of issues facing makers of American foreign policy after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Russian president Vladimir Putin was one of the first foreign leaders to speak directly to President Bush, expressing his condolences and offering his support for the American response. He followed these rhetorical pledges with concrete policies, including military and humanitarian support to the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan and Russian acquiescence to American troops in Central Asia. Bush and his foreign policy team responded positively to Putin's new Western leanings by calling on Chechen separatist leaders to renounce their ties to Osama bin Laden.
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Strike at the Root

Authors
Michael A. McFaul
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OUR COUNTRY'S leaders have rightly stated that we must be prepared to use the full arsenal of our capabilities, defensive and offensive, to respond to the heinous acts of terrorism directed against the United States and the world.

We have also been cautioned not to expect a massive, one-time military response but rather a longer, and at times invisible, diplomatic and financial campaign aimed at crippling terrorists.

Good words and pragmatic thinking. But there are weapons in our arsenal that are not being sufficiently emphasized.

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The Putin Paradox

Authors
Michael A. McFaul
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Michael A. McFaul - Since becoming Russia's President in 2000, Vladimir Putin has simultaneously pushed forward a positive agenda of economic reform and a negative agenda of political repression. It's a sad story of one step forward, two steps back, and if it continues it will threaten the existence of a free Russian society.
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Meddling in Ukraine: Democracy Is Not an American Plot

Authors
Michael A. McFaul
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Did the U.S. government fund the Yushchenko campaign directly? Not to the knowledge of Michael A. McFaul. Both the International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute conducted training programs for Ukrainian political parties, some of which later joined the Yushchenko coalition. But in the years leading up to the 2004 votes, American ambassadors in Ukraine insisted that no U.S. government money could be provided to any candidate. Private sources of external funding and expertise aided the Yushchenko campaign. Likewise, U.S. and Russian public relations consultants worked with the Yushchenko campaign, just as U.S. and Russian public relations people were brought in to help his opponent, Viktor Yanukovych. In future elections Ukrainian officials might enforce more controls on foreign resources. But this kind of private, for-profit campaign advice occurs everywhere now, and Americans no longer control the market.
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The False Promise of Autocratic Stability

Authors
Michael A. McFaul
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In my travels to more than 50 countries, I have been thrown out of only one - Uzbekistan - just a few months after its emergence as an independent state in 1992 under its first and only president, Islam Karimov. My crime? Working for an American democracy promotion organization and meeting with human rights activists.

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What's a Corrupt Election Among Friends?

Authors
Michael A. McFaul
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Public opinion polls suggest that Aliyev's party would probably win a majority of seats in a free and fair election, but the young leader lacks the confidence to allow fair balloting. Officials who rigged the last election have not been replaced, and the government has refused to follow the Iraqi example of marking voters' fingers with ink to prevent multiple trips to the polls. Aliyev's party changed the electoral law to make it more difficult to uncover false balloting through the usual means of parallel-vote tabulation or exit polls. To date, Aliyev has not allowed the National Democratic Institute -- an American nongovernmental organization recognized around the world as a premier election-monitoring organization -- to observe the vote count.
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Iran's weakened hard-liners crave a US attack

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Bombing Iran will exacerbate, not resolve problems, Michael A. McFaul, Larry Diamond and Abbas Milani demonstrate in a new landmark article. "Rather than throw the reactionaries in Tehran a political lifeline in the form of war, the United States should pursue a more subtle approach: contain Iranian agents in the region, but offer to negotiate unconditionally with Iran on all the outstanding issues. Comprehensive negotiations could offer powerful inducements, such as a lifting of the economic embargo and a significant influx of foreign investment and thus create the jobs necessary to persuade Iran to halt nuclear enrichment. If the hard-liners reject the offer, then they would have to contend with an angry Iranian public. Such internal strife would be far preferable to an Islamic Republic united against the attacking forces of the 'Great Satan.'"
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Shaping US Policies toward the Malay Muslim World: Brunei and Beyond

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In his annual testimony before the House Armed Services Committee in March 2006, then - Pacific Commander Admiral William Fallon characterized Southeast Asia as "in the front line of the War on Terrorism." While some in the region welcomed this indication of official American interest, many would have wished to be singled out for more positive reasons. Yet, for many Americans, it took an event as dramatic as the Bali bombings of October 2002 to realize that there were more Malay-speaking Muslims in Southeast Asia than Arabic-speaking ones in the Middle East. Using the little-known sultanate of Brunei as a point of departure, Ambassador Christy will analyze how political Islam in the Malay Muslim world has changed, and how one American diplomat went about shaping US policies to respond to these changes.

Ambassador Gene Christy is a career foreign service officer. At the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, RI, he teaches in the National Security Decision-Making Department, including courses on Asian security perspectives and on Southeast Asia. In Washington D.C. he worked in the State Department on island Southeast Asia issues (2001-02 and 1985-89) and as director for Asia at the National Security Council (2000-01). His diplomatic posts in Southeast Asia prior to serving as ambassador to Brunei included Kuala Lumpur in the 1990s, Jakarta in the 1980s, and Surabaya in the 1970s.

This is the Southeast Asia Forum's eighth seminar of the 2006-2007 academic year.

Daniel and Nancy Okimoto Conference Room

Gene Christy State Department Adviser, US Naval War College, and 2002-2005 US Ambassador to Brunei Darussalam Speaker
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