Paragraphs

The war in Ukraine has altered the course of global history. These authors explore how.

When Vladimir Putin's forces sought to conquer Ukraine in February 2022, they did more than threaten the survival of a vulnerable democracy. The invasion unleashed a crisis that has changed the course of world affairs. This conflict has reshaped alliances, deepened global cleavages, and caused economic disruptions that continue to reverberate around the globe. It has initiated the first great-power nuclear crisis in decades and raised fundamental questions about the sources of national power and military might in the modern age. The outcome of the conflict will profoundly influence the international balance of power, the relationship between democracies and autocracies, and the rules that govern global affairs. In War in Ukraine, Hal Brands brings together an all-star cast of analysts to assess the conflict's origins, course, and implications and to offer their appraisals of one of the most geopolitically consequential crises of the early twenty-first century. Essays cover topics including the twists and turns of the war itself, the successes and failures of US strategy, the impact of sanctions, the future of Russia and its partnership with China, and more.

Contributors: Anne Applebaum, Joshua Baker, Alexander Bick, Hal Brands, Daniel Drezner, Peter Feaver, Lawrence Freedman, Francis Gavin, Brian Hart, William Inboden, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Michael Kimmage, Michael Kofman, Stephen Kotkin, Mark Leonard, Bonny Lin, Thomas Mahnken, Dara Massicot, Michael McFaul, Robert Person, Kori Schake, and Ashley Tellis.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Book Chapters
Publication Date
Subtitle

Chapter in War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World, edited by Hal Brands

Authors
Michael A. McFaul
Book Publisher
Johns Hopkins University Press
Number
pp. 34-54
Paragraphs

The war in Ukraine has altered the course of global history. These authors explore how.

When Vladimir Putin's forces sought to conquer Ukraine in February 2022, they did more than threaten the survival of a vulnerable democracy. The invasion unleashed a crisis that has changed the course of world affairs. This conflict has reshaped alliances, deepened global cleavages, and caused economic disruptions that continue to reverberate around the globe. It has initiated the first great-power nuclear crisis in decades and raised fundamental questions about the sources of national power and military might in the modern age. The outcome of the conflict will profoundly influence the international balance of power, the relationship between democracies and autocracies, and the rules that govern global affairs. In War in Ukraine, Hal Brands brings together an all-star cast of analysts to assess the conflict's origins, course, and implications and to offer their appraisals of one of the most geopolitically consequential crises of the early twenty-first century. Essays cover topics including the twists and turns of the war itself, the successes and failures of US strategy, the impact of sanctions, the future of Russia and its partnership with China, and more.

Contributors: Anne Applebaum, Joshua Baker, Alexander Bick, Hal Brands, Daniel Drezner, Peter Feaver, Lawrence Freedman, Francis Gavin, Brian Hart, William Inboden, Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Michael Kimmage, Michael Kofman, Stephen Kotkin, Mark Leonard, Bonny Lin, Thomas Mahnken, Dara Massicot, Michael McFaul, Robert Person, Kori Schake, and Ashley Tellis.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Book Chapters
Publication Date
Subtitle

Chapter in War in Ukraine: Conflict, Strategy, and the Return of a Fractured World, edited by Hal Brands

Authors
Stephen Kotkin
Book Publisher
Johns Hopkins University Press
Number
pp. 17-33
-
Maria Popova REDS seminar

Ukraine's EU accession depends greatly on success in tackling corruption. Since 2014, Ukraine has built an extensive anticorruption institutional architecture, which has produced significant policy outcomes, but perception indices still show Ukraine as trailing most other European countries. This article summarizes Ukraine’s post-Euromaidan anticorruption reforms in the context of similar reforms pursued by other post-Communist EU candidate states pre-accession. The article then examines Ukraine’s corruption perceptions’ indices trajectory in comparative terms and wades into the debate over whether different types of perception indices proxy well for corruption incidence. The comparative look suggests that Ukraine is better prepared for EU accession in terms of control of corruption than is widely assumed.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Maria Popova is an Associate Professor of Political Science at McGill University and Scientific Director of the Jean Monnet Centre Montreal. She also serves as Editor of the Cambridge Elements Series on Politics and Society from Central Europe to Central Asia. Her work explores the rule of law and democracy in Eastern Europe. Her first book, Politicized Justice in Emerging Democracies, which won the American Association for Ukrainian Studies book prize in 2013, examines the weaponization of law to manipulate elections and control the media in Russia and Ukraine. Her recent articles have focused on judicial and anticorruption reform in post-Maidan Ukraine, the politics of anticorruption campaigns in Eastern Europe, conspiracies, and illiberalism. Her new book with Oxana Shevel on the roots of the Russo-Ukrainian war entitled Russia and Ukraine: Entangled Histories, Diverging States is now available from Polity Press.



REDS: RETHINKING EUROPEAN DEVELOPMENT AND SECURITY


The REDS Seminar Series aims to deepen the research agenda on the new challenges facing Europe, especially on its eastern flank, and to build intellectual and institutional bridges across Stanford University, fostering interdisciplinary approaches to current global challenges.

REDS is organized by The Europe Center and the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law, and co-sponsored by the Hoover Institution and the Center for Russian, East European and Eurasian Studies.

Learn more about REDS and view past seminars here.

 

Image
CDDRL, TEC, Hoover, and CREEES logos
Kathryn Stoner
Kathryn Stoner

In-person: Reuben Hills Conference Room (Encina Hall, 2nd floor, 616 Jane Stanford Way, Stanford)

Virtual: Zoom (no registration required)

Maria Popova McGill University
Seminars
-
Tomila Lankina seminar

This talk will be based on Lankina's 2022 award-winning book, The Estate Origins of Democracy in Russia. She will discuss how tsarist social divides and the institution of sosloviye (estate) shaped social structure during communism and why the social longue durée matters for understanding post-Communist political regime trajectories.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

Tomila Lankina is professor of International Relations at the IR Department of the London School of Economics and Political Science. She has worked on democracy and authoritarianism, mass protests and historical drivers of human capital and political regime change in Russia and other countries; she has also analyzed the propaganda and disinformation campaigns in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea and aggression in Ukraine. Her latest research is on social structure and inequality. Her book, The Estate Origins of Democracy in Russia: From Imperial Bourgeoisie to Post-Communist Middle Class (Cambridge University Press 2022), won the 2023 J. David Greenstone Prize for the best book in the Politics and History section of the American Political Science Association and the 2023 Davis Center Book Prize in Political and Social Studies for an outstanding monograph published on Russia, Eurasia, or Eastern Europe in anthropology, political science, sociology, or geography in the previous calendar year. The book also received “Honorable Mention” for the Sartori Book Award of the American Political Science Association Organized Section for Qualitative and Multi-Method Research.

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to Encina E008 in Encina Hall may attend in person.

Hesham Sallam
Hesham Sallam

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to E008 in Encina Hall may attend in person.

Tomila Lankina Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science Professor of International Relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science
Seminars
Authors
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

Ukrainian leaders told a Stanford audience on February 23 that the Russian war against their country is not only about Ukrainian sovereignty but about the future of Europe and freedom and democracy in the world as autocratic regimes increasingly align against Western allies.

The Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law hosted the two-hour panel discussion, “Two Years of War: Updates from Ukraine,” which featured CDDRL alums currently based in Ukraine. 

They included Oleksiy Honcharuk, a former prime minister of Ukraine and 2021 Bernard and Susan Liautaud Visiting Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI); Serhiy Leshchenko, advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Chief of Staff and an alumnus of the Draper Hills Summer Fellows program (now the Fisher Family Summer Fellows Program); Oleksandra Matviichuk, founder of the Center for Civil Liberties (co-recipient of the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize) and an alumna of the 2017-18 Ukrainian Emerging Leaders Program; and Oleksandra Ustinova, People’s Deputy of Ukraine and an alumna of the 2018-19 Ukrainian Emerging Leaders Program.

Reforms in Ukraine


Kathryn Stoner, Mosbacher Director of CDDRL, and Michael McFaul, director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, served as moderators for the discussion. One year ago, with the same guests, CDDRL and FSI co-hosted a similar roundtable, the conversation of which had a different tone with more optimism.

In his opening remarks, McFaul asked the panelists for their responses to critics of U.S. military aid to Ukraine who claim Ukraine is corrupt, the money would be wasted, and that continued aid would only prolong an unwinnable war.

Matviichuk said that Ukraine has made many reforms over the last decade since the Revolution of Dignity in 2014. “Government is accountable. The judiciary is independent, and police do not kill students who are peacefully demonstrating. We have paid the highest price for this chance,” despite it being very difficult to implement far-reaching reforms during wartime.

We don't know what the result will be in the end. But we have to fight because if you don’t fight, the result will be horrible.
Serhiy Leshchenko
Advisor to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Chief of Staff

Leshchenko said that the perception by some in the West that the war is “unwinnable” is inaccurate when viewed through a historical lens. “We are in 1941. We don't know what the result will be in the end. But we have to fight because if you don’t fight, the result will be horrible.”

Ustinova added, "Poland, or another country, will be next, and it may be a NATO country. And then the Americans would need to put boots on the ground and fight a European war again and lose thousands of your people.”

Russia has created a false narrative about Ukrainian corruption, she said. “What Ukraine was ten years ago and what Ukraine is now are two different countries. We have created very efficient new anti-corruption institutions, like our National Anti-Corruption Bureau, that are supported and highly admired by our international partners, including the United States. We have more than 600 cases in court against former state officials or existent state officials.”

We have to wake up. If the world doesn’t wake up, if the world does not understand that this is a war of autocracies and democracies, it’s going to be a very different war in a few years.
Oleksandra Ustinova
People's Deputy of Ukraine

‘Our fight for freedom’


Matviichuk said delays in U.S. military aid are a major concern in Ukraine. “In this difficult situation, we have no other choice. Our people in Ukraine will continue our fight for freedom and democracy because if we stop fighting, there will be no more Ukrainians.”

Leshchenko said he had recently been in the Donetsk region, where he visited two Ukrainian brigades. He urged the continuation of American military assistance as the lack of support was affecting their troops.

“The general mood is quite uncertain,” he said. “The soldiers are really disappointed with the lack of ammunition for vehicles and artillery, which they need to attack Russian positions. Unfortunately, they cannot do so now — this lack of ammunition is crucial.” But he added, “We will keep fighting.”

Ustinova said the world has grown too comfortable in believing that Ukraine would prevail without ongoing support. 

“A year ago, when I was speaking on this same panel, I was very enthusiastic because we were planning the counteroffensive. We had been successful in getting some territories back, and I think the world was really clapping and standing behind Ukrainians for winning the war within the last year. It is very sad for me to say now from Kyiv that everything has changed,” she said.

Russia was the only country that ramped up its ammunition and weapons production over the past couple of years, she added. “Last year, they tripled the production of their ballistic and ultrasonic missiles.” 

Noting that Russia has kidnapped more than 20,000 Ukrainian children, Ustinova said, “This is not just a Ukrainian conflict. This is a much bigger deal we are looking at right now. We have Iran. We have North Korea. We have Russia standing on one side, and we have the Western world and democracy standing on the other side. I’m so sorry to say, but the first group is so far more efficient than the second one.”

She explained, “It’s much easier for autocracies and those regimes to be united and take the decisions to ramp up their production lines than for the Western democracies who have to debate and negotiate.”

Our people in Ukraine will continue our fight for freedom and democracy because if we stop fighting, there will be no more Ukrainians.
Oleksandra Matviichuk
Founder of the Center for Civil Liberties

Technology race, Ukrainian efficiencies


Honcharuk said the war has crystalized Ukraine’s focus on military efficiency. Last year, his teams completed about 2,000 combat missions and destroyed over 700 units of enemy military equipment. This year, they are planning for 20,000 combat missions.

“I believe Ukraine is already a trendsetter,” he said. “The technology race is very fast when you have a war. Day by day, you are trying to compete with the enemy, and Ukraine is forced to maintain this very high pace to survive. There is only one country that currently has the same high pace, and it may be even higher — that is Russia.”

He said that Russia already understands that Ukraine will not give up “I believe now Russia is trying to find other weak spots on democratic camp … It’s very sad if they are right. The whole free world is in a very dangerous situation because Russia learned their lessons very fast, and they are much more dangerous than they were a year or two ago.”

Yet Honcharuk described the Ukrainian army as the best army in the world to fight against Russia. “We understand both systems, NATO systems and post-Soviet systems, at the same time, and we can destroy and damage Russian forces with very few resources.”

Ustinova noted the grim irony of Russia chairing the United Nations Security Council. “The United Nations was invented to prevent the wars in the world. Russia is the number one terrorist in the world, and they are the chair of the Security Council of the United Nations?! Everybody pretends this to be okay?!”

The whole free world is in a very dangerous situation because Russia learned their lessons very fast, and they are much more dangerous than they were a year or two ago.
Oleksiy Honcharuk
Former Prime Minister of Ukraine

‘A hard war’


Stoner said that the Russian invasion has wrought significant damage on Ukraine as a country. “The World Bank estimated last year that it would cost over $411 billion for Ukrainian reconstruction, and I’m sure that number has increased rather dramatically in the last six or so months.”

In closing, McFaul told the panelists, “A lot of your friends are here in the audience. We miss you. We want you to come back. We want to celebrate victory. But we’re also worried about you. This is a hard war, and you are all very involved in everything in your own ways. I cannot believe you’re being so generous with your time with us as late as it is there.”

Stoner added, “This is not just a Ukrainian fight, it is. It is a fight for everyone, and thank you all for everything that you’re doing.”

You can view a recording of the panel and discussion below and read more about the event in the Stanford Daily.

Read More

Amichai Magen, Marshall Burke, Didi Kuo, Larry Diamond, and Michael McFaul onstage for a panel discussion at Stanford's 2023 Reunion and Homecoming
Commentary

At Reunion Homecoming, FSI Scholars Offer Five Policy Recommendations for the Biden Administration

FSI scholars offer their thoughts on what can be done to address political polarization in the United States, tensions between Taiwan and China, climate change, the war in Ukraine, and the Israel-Hamas war.
At Reunion Homecoming, FSI Scholars Offer Five Policy Recommendations for the Biden Administration
Michael McFaul poses with a Stanford University flag in front of a group of Ukrainian alumni during a reunion dinner in Kyiv.
Blogs

On the Ground in Ukraine: A Report from Michael McFaul and Francis Fukuyama

A trip to Kyiv gave FSI Director Michael McFaul and Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow Francis Fukuyama the opportunity to meet with policymakers, military experts, and Ukrainian alumni of FSI's programs and fellowships.
On the Ground in Ukraine: A Report from Michael McFaul and Francis Fukuyama
Michael McFaul moderates a panel with Oleksiy Honcharuk, Serhiy Leshchenko, Oleksandra Matviichuk, Oleksandra Ustinova on the one-year anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
News

Ukraine’s Fight for Democracy, One Year In

To commemorate the first year of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian leaders joined a panel hosted by the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies to express their hopes for victory and their gratitude for Western support.
Ukraine’s Fight for Democracy, One Year In
Hero Image
Ukrainian panelists speak to a packed room about the impact the second year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has had on daily life, the global democratic order, and Ukraine's future.
Ukrainian panelists speak to a packed room about the impact the second year of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine has had on daily life, the global democratic order, and Ukraine's future. Photo: Kurt Hickman / Stanford News
Kurt Hickman / Stanford News
All News button
1
Subtitle

A failure by the United States to continue military aid to Ukraine would put that country in the gravest peril and embolden Russia to launch more aggression against other European countries, Ukrainian leaders said last week during a discussion hosted by the Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law.

Authors
Rachel Owens
News Type
News
Date
Paragraphs

How will Russia’s renewed aggression in Ukraine affect Moscow’s relations with its Eurasian neighbors? In a recent REDS Seminar series talk, co-sponsored by CDDRL and The Europe Center (TEC), University of Michigan Professor of Political Science Pauline Jones addressed this broader question in a collaborative study (with Indiana University Professor Regina Smyth) examining Kazakhstan’s public attitudes toward the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). A Russian-forged security organization composed of Eurasian countries, the CSTO is aimed at collective defense, although its mandate has recently expanded to include the mitigation of internal conflicts.

Kazakhstan’s significance as a case study, Jones explained, is partly derived from its status as a regional hegemon and the largest non-Russian member state of the CSTO. Although some argue that Kazakhstan’s membership in CSTO contributes to interethnic harmony among its dominant ethnic Kazakh population and large ethnic Russian minority, mounting protests against the war in Ukraine, as well as an influx of Russians fleeing Putin’s war, have put pressure on Kazakhstan to leave the organization. Jones’s study of Kazakhstan’s public opinion on the CSTO suggests that popular sentiments matter in shaping foreign policy and that unpopular decisions can undermine support for the ruling party. 

Jones’s study relied on both direct questions and a list experiment to gauge Kazakhstani public attitudes toward the CSTO. The question asked interviewees whether they approved of Kazakhstan’s participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organization. The list experiment offered participants a list of policies and asked them how many they agreed with. The treatment group’s list of policies included Kazakhstan’s engagement in the CSTO, whereas that of the control group did not.

Jones’ talk highlighted three main provisional findings. First, popular support for the CSTO is weak. Second, it is divided both across and within ethnic groups, with demographic variables being primary correlates of attitudes. Finally, attitudinal beliefs about Russia seem to reinforce these divides. 

Data analysis revealed two primary biases at play. The first is a fear bias, or the reluctance to adopt positions that run contrary to that of the regime. The other is a community preference bias, or an individual’s reluctance to express preferences inconsistent with prevalent views within their own ethnic community. The community preference bias seemed to be stronger, especially for ethnic Kazakhs. That is, ethnic Kazakh respondents were more likely to say that they do not support the CSTO, even when they do, likely out of fear of misaligning with the prevalent view within their own community. 

Attitudinal variables also played a role, albeit less so than the demographic ones. Trust in Putin and positive attitudes toward Russia were associated with greater support for the CSTO. In contrast, among those who saw the Ukraine war as the most salient issue facing the nation, support for the CSTO was weaker. 

These findings suggest that, in the future, Kazakhstan’s government may face pressure from public opinion to change its policy vis-à-vis the CSTO, and Russia, more generally.

Read More

Anat Admati
News

How Banking Undermines Democracy

In a recent CDDRL research seminar, Anat Admati shared findings from her research on how banking practices can undermine democracy, which are highlighted in the new and expanded edition of her book, "The Bankers’ New Clothes: What is Wrong with Banking and What to Do About It" (Princeton University Press, 2024).
How Banking Undermines Democracy
Jennifer Brick Mutrazashvili presents during CDDRL's Research Seminar on December 7, 2023.
News

The Failure of State Building in Afghanistan

Jennifer Brick Mutrazashvili argues that this failure lies in the bureaucratic legacies the country inherited from the Soviet era.
The Failure of State Building in Afghanistan
Hero Image
Pauline Jones REDS Seminar
Pauline Jones presents during a CDDRL/TEC REDS Seminar on January 25, 2024.
Rachel Cody Owens
All News button
1
Subtitle

Professor of Political Science Pauline Jones explored how Russia’s renewed aggression in Ukraine will affect Moscow’s relations with its Eurasian neighbors in a recent REDS Seminar talk, co-sponsored by CDDRL and TEC.

Date Label
-

The Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and the The Europe Center (TEC) are pleased to host President Zuzana Čaputová of the Slovak Republic for a fireside chat with Michael McFaul, director of FSI, with welcome remarks by Anna Grzymała-Busse, director of TEC. 

President Čaputová will speak about the impact Russia's war on Ukraine is having on Central European countries.


About President Zuzana Čaputová 


Elected on June 15, 2019, Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová is the first woman to hold the presidency as well as the youngest president in Slovakia's history. President Čaputová's political career began in 1996, after graduating from the Comenius University Faculty of Law in Bratislava. After her studies, Čaputová worked in the local government of Pezinok and then transitioned into the non-profit sector working at the Open Society Foundations. At the Open Society Foundations, she worked closely on the issue of abused and exploited children. In 2017, Čaputová joined the Progressive Slovakian political party and was elected as a Vice-Chairwoman for the party. She also served as the Deputy Chair until 2019, when she resigned to launch her presidential campaign.

In 2016, she was awarded the Goldman Environmental Prize for her work in addressing the toxic landfill in Pezinok. In addition, in 2020, Čaputová ranked #83 on the Forbes’ World's 100 Most Powerful Women list.

Michael A. McFaul
Michael McFaul
Anna Grzymała-Busse
Anna Grzymała-Busse
Zuzana Čaputová President of Slovakia
Lectures
Paragraphs

The United States and Russia have not signed a new nuclear arms control agreement in a decade and the New START Treaty is set to expire next year if not extended. The development of so-called disruptive nuclear weapons technologies, such as hypersonic and autonomous capabilities, not explicitly addressed under existing treaties further complicates bilateral negotiations to reach agreement on a future for nuclear arms control. In this paper, we develop a set of criteria to assess the disruptiveness of these technologies and evaluate their implications on potential arms control mechanisms. We review historic and theoretical motivations for pursuing bilateral arms control and analyze the U.S. and Russian nuclear postures through public government documents. We consider three potential mechanisms for future nuclear arms control agreements and argue in favor of a U.S.-Russia co-sponsored treaty in an international forum to constrain the deployment of those nuclear technologies assessed to be disruptive to strategic stability.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Conference Memos
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
The Stanford US-Russia Journal
Authors
Number
No. 1
Paragraphs

Due to its extreme climate and low population density, the Russian Arctic region remains largely infrastructurally undeveloped. Many settlements in the Arctic area are not connected to the Unified Energy System of Russia (UES) and employ various carbon-intensive sources for local electricity generation. Currently, the Russian government has drafted a strategic development plan for the region, specifically utilizing the region's vast supply of oil and natural gas reserves for electricity generation. The Arctic ecosystem is fragile, and constructing new oil, gas, or diesel power stations may not be sustainable for the region. Additionally, the utilization of fossil fuels would exclude the current technological advancements in electricity systems. This paper offers an improved and more sustainable approach to developing electricity generation in remote localities. Given unique regional ecological and sustainability concerns, Territories of Advanced Social and Economic Development (TASED) should be created in the Arctic regions of Yamal and Murmansk in order to integrate wind electricity generation on a small scale in these regions' most remote population centers. Not only would this protect the region's ecosystem from the negative effects of new fossil fuel power stations, but it would also present new opportunities for equitable development of the region's economy.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Conference Memos
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
The Stanford US-Russia Journal
Authors
Number
No. 1
Paragraphs

This study focuses on the mitigation of methane emissions from large-scale oil and gas infrastructure. It is built on two complementary cases of the Russian Federation and United States, who are two of the largest oil and natural gas producers, possess the most extensive oil and natural gas pipeline networks, and both deal with the emerging problem of high-level methane emissions. The paper attempts to identify differences and similarities between the countries' approaches in mitigating methane emissions. Analyzing open data on methane emissions, legislation, corporate standards, and reports of state agencies, this research seeks to answer the question of whether there is space for cooperation and exchange of experiences and best practices between the two countries in methane leak detection and repair (LDAR). Our analysis shows a considerable lack in corresponding regulation in both countries and identifies a dramatic misalignment between international, national, and corporate actions. However, we see the opportunity to significantly reduce the existing gaps in regulation and technological adaptation through international cooperation and exchange of best practices. The paper supports corresponding policy and practical implications that rely on bilateral and multilateral initiatives and a cooperative approach between oil and gas companies and the government.

All Publications button
1
Publication Type
Conference Memos
Publication Date
Journal Publisher
The Stanford US-Russia Journal
Authors
Number
No. 1
Subscribe to Russia and Eurasia