Stanford University

Yanhui Wu | Social Media and Government Responsiveness: Evidence from Vaccine Procurement in China

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SCCEI Seminar Series (Fall 2023)


Friday, December 1, 2023 | 12:00 pm -1:20 pm Pacific Time
Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way

Social Media and Government Responsiveness: Evidence from Vaccine Procurement in China


This research studies how public opinion on social media affected local governments' procurement of vaccines in China during 2014-2019. To establish causality, we exploit city-level variation in the eruption of online opinion on vaccine safety, instrumented by quasi-random early penetration of social media. We find that governments in cities exposed to stronger social media shocks increased the share of more transparent procurement and reduced home bias by procuring more vaccines from nonlocal producers. The effect is driven by posts expressing anti-government sentiment instead of posts containing investigative information and is larger in cities where local officials face higher top-down political pressure.

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About the Speaker 
 

Yanhui Wu headshot

Yanhui Wu is an economist whose research concentrates on two areas: media economics and organizational economics. In media economics, he studies the political economy of mass media, particularly the underexplored subject of the media in China. In organizational economics, his research focuses on the organization of knowledge-intensive activities, particularly in the digital economy. Recently, he has worked with data scientists to develop new big data methods and apply them to the social sciences. His work has been published at top economics, management, and statistics journals, including the American Economic Review, Review of Economics and Statistics, Economic Journal, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Management Science, Organization Science, and the Journal of American Statistical Association.

Yanhui Wu is Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Hong Kong and Research Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR). Previously, he was Assistant Professor of Finance and Business Economics at the University of Southern California. He received his Ph.D. in economics from the London School of Economics in 2011. Prior to his doctoral study, he was an award-winning financial journalist in China.
 


A NOTE ON LOCATION

Please join us in-person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall on the 4th floor of the East wing.


Questions? Contact Xinmin Zhao at xinminzhao@stanford.edu
 

Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall

Yanhui Wu, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Hong Kong
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Xu Xu | How Digital Surveillance Justifies Massive Lockdowns in China During COVID-19

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SCCEI Seminar Series (Fall 2023)


Friday, November 17, 2023 | 12:00 pm -1:20 pm Pacific Time
Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way

How Digital Surveillance Justifies Massive Lockdowns in China During COVID-19
 

China’s draconian response to COVID-19 drew considerable criticism, with many suggesting that intense digital surveillance and harsh lockdowns triggered the unusual public dissent seen in China in late 2022. However, we argue that rather than backfiring, digital surveillance may have legitimized the government’s overreaction by making uncertain threats appear certain. We collected data on daily counts of lockdown communities and COVID cases from 2020 to 2023. Using a difference-in-differences approach with World Value Surveys (China 2012, 2018) and a nationwide online survey in 2023, we show that real-world lockdowns significantly reduced public perception of respect for human rights and trust in the government; however, these effects are moderated by the pervasiveness of COVID surveillance, proxied by cellphone usage. To establish causality, we use a survey experiment to show that digital surveillance indeed increases support for COVID lockdowns by making citizens more likely to believe they are close contacts. In contrast, surveillance cannot justify protest crackdowns. Our findings suggest that uncertainty in threats to public safety may foster support for state surveillance and coercion.

Please register for the event to receive email updates and add it to your calendar. Lunch will be provided.


About the Speaker 
 

Xu Xu headshot

Xu Xu is Assistant Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University. Xu studies digital authoritarianism, political repression, and the political economy of development, with a regional focus on China. He is currently working on a book entitled Authoritarian Control in the Age of Digital Surveillance. His other ongoing projects examine the political aspects of artificial intelligence, social media propaganda, public opinion on state repression, and state-society relations in China. His work has appeared in the American Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, and the Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, among other peer-reviewed journals.

He received his Ph.D. in political science from Pennsylvania State University in 2019, and was a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University from 2020 to 2021.
 


A NOTE ON LOCATION

Please join us in-person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall on the 4th floor of the East wing.


Questions? Contact Xinmin Zhao at xinminzhao@stanford.edu
 

Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall

Xu Xu, Assistant Professor of Politics and International Affairs, Princeton University
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Ruixue Jia | Improving Regulation for Innovation: Evidence from China’s Pharmaceutical Industry

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SCCEI Fall Seminar Series 


Friday, October 27, 2023 | 12:00 pm -1:20 pm Pacific Time
Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way

Improving Regulation for Innovation: Evidence from China’s Pharmaceutical Industry


This study investigates the extent to which improved regulation can foster innovation by analyzing the impact of a major regulatory reform implemented in 2015 on the quantity and quality of innovation in China's pharmaceutical industry. Inspired by regulatory practices in the US, the reform aimed to address application backlogs and reduce administrative waiting time for new drug development. Using data at the drug and firm levels, we uncover three main findings: (1) drug categories experiencing improved approval times witnessed a surge in investigational new drug applications; (2) while there existed little improvement in within-drug innovation quality, the reform stimulated shifts in firm composition, leading to the influx of innovative new firm and enhancing aggregate-level drug innovativeness; and (3) the market recognized the improvement in drug innovation, evidenced by changes in stock prices following new drug registrations. Our findings highlight the important relationship between innovation quantity and quality, influenced by firm composition. They also suggest that emerging markets can enhance their innovation potential by adopting regulatory approaches akin to frontier countries.

Please register for the event to receive email updates and add it to your calendar. Lunch will be provided.


About the Speaker 
 

Headshot of Dr. Ruixue Jia.

Ruixue Jia is an Associate Professor of Economics at the School of Global Policy and Strategy, UC San Diego. Her research interests lie at the intersection of economics, history, and politics. One area of her research examines elite formation and its influence, both in historical and contemporary contexts. Another focus of her work is uncovering the deep historical origins of economic development. In recent years, she has studied the ongoing transformation of China's manufacturing sector and expanded her research to encompass labor and technology-related issues.

Jia is affiliated with BREAD, CESifo, CEPR, and NBER. She also serves as the co-director of UCSD's China Data Lab, which aims to lead China studies into a new era where contextual knowledge is tested and corroborated by social science methods and data.


A NOTE ON LOCATION

Please join us in-person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall on the 4th floor of the East wing.


Questions? Contact Xinmin Zhao at xinminzhao@stanford.edu
 

Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall

Ruixue Jia, Associate Professor of Economics, UC San Diego
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Jie Bai | Quid Pro Quo, Knowledge Spillover, and Industrial Quality Upgrading: Evidence from the Chinese Auto Industry

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SCCEI Seminar Series (Fall 2023)


Friday, October 13, 2023 | 12:00 pm -1:20 pm Pacific Time
Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way

Quid Pro Quo, Knowledge Spillover, and Industrial Quality Upgrading: Evidence from the Chinese Auto Industry


This paper studies the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) via quid pro quo (technology for market access) in facilitating knowledge spillover and quality upgrades. Our context is the Chinese automobile industry, where foreign automakers are required to set up joint ventures (the quid) with domestic automakers in return for market access (the quo). The identification strategy exploits a unique dataset of detailed vehicle quality measures along multiple dimensions and relies on within-product quality variation across dimensions. We show that affiliated domestic automakers, compared to their nonaffiliated counterparts, adopt more similar quality strengths of their joint venture partners. Quid pro quo generates knowledge spillover to affiliated domestic automakers in addition to any industry-wide spillover. We rule out alternative explanations involving endogenous joint venture network formation, overlapping customer bases, or direct technology transfer via market transactions. Analyses leveraging additional micro datasets on worker flows and upstream suppliers demonstrate that labor mobility and supplier networks are important channels mediating knowledge spillover. Finally, we estimate an equilibrium model for the auto industry and quantify the impact of quid-pro-quo-induced  quality upgrading on domestic sales and profits. Quid pro quo improved the quality of affiliated domestic models by 3.8-12.7% and raised their sales (profit) by 0.9-3.9% (1.02-3.49%) relative to unrestricted FDI.

Please register for the event to receive email updates and add it to your calendar. Lunch will be provided.


About the Speaker 
 

Jie Bai headshot

Jie Bai is an Assistant Professor in Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School. Her research lies at the intersection between development, trade and industrial organization, focusing on microeconomic issues of firms in developing countries and emerging markets. Her past projects have examined firms’ incentive and ability to build a reputation for quality, collective reputational forces in export markets, the relationship between firm growth and corruption, and the impact of internal trade barriers among Chinese provinces on firms' export behavior. Her current ongoing work includes studying growth and reputation dynamics in online markets, technology transfer and knowledge spillovers among firms, and quality incentives and upgrading along supply chains. Professor Bai received her Ph.D. in Economics from Massachusetts Institute of Technology in June 2016 and spent one year at Microsoft Research New England prior to joining Harvard Kennedy School.


A NOTE ON LOCATION

Please join us in-person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall on the 4th floor of the East wing.


Questions? Contact Xinmin Zhao at xinminzhao@stanford.edu
 

Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall

Jie Bai, Assistant Professor in Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School
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Junyan Jiang | From Kins to Comrades: Rural Clan Society and the Rise of Communism in China

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SCCEI Seminar Series (Fall 2023)


Friday, September 29, 2023 | 12:00 pm -1:20 pm Pacific Time
Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall, 616 Jane Stanford Way

From Kins to Comrades: Rural Clan Society and the Rise of Communism in China


A key paradox of social revolutions is that despite their radical, modernist claims, success often requires effective mobilization of the peasantry, who are typically conservative and inward-looking. This article studies how traditional institutions of rural society can help movement entrepreneurs mobilize a modern revolution. Using newly digitized data on over 54,000 family genealogies and 500,000 revolutionary martyrs from 637 uprisings nationwide, we examine the role of clan and kinship networks during the incipient stage of the Chinese Communist Revolution (1927--1936). Triple-difference estimates suggest that local organizers mobilized significantly more co-clan members to join uprisings than non-co-clans. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the characteristics of organizers’ clans and the local clan structure are among the most decisive factors in predicting uprising occurrence and outcome. These findings highlight the subtle yet significant linkage between agrarian institutions and modern revolutions and offer a new perspective on the origin of Chinese communism.

Please register for the event to receive email updates and add it to your calendar. Lunch will be provided.


About the Speaker  
 

Junyan Jiang headshot.

Junyan Jiang is the Assistant Professor of Political Science at Columbia University. Professor Jiang studies comparative politics and political economy, focusing on the politics of elites, organizations, and ideas. Some of his current research projects explore the formation and transformation of political elite networks in China, the interplay between formal rules and informal power in bureaucratic systems, and the dynamics of ideology in changing societies. His work has been published in American Journal of Political Science, British Journal of Political Science, Journal of Politics, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Development Economics, and World Politics, among others. He has received the 2020 Gregory Luebbert Article Award for the best article in comparative politics from the American Political Science Association (APSA), and honorable mentions for the 2016 Sage Paper Award for the best paper presented at APSA Annual Meetings and the 2018 Mancur Olson Award for the best dissertation in political economy.


 

A NOTE ON LOCATION

Please join us in-person in the Goldman Conference Room located within Encina Hall on the 4th floor of the East wing.


Questions? Contact Xinmin Zhao at xinminzhao@stanford.edu
 

Goldman Room E409, Encina Hall

Junyan Jiang, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Columbia University
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Michael Alisky

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CDDRL Honors Student, 2023-24
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Major: BA International Relations, MA International Policy
Minor: Computer Science
Hometown: Aurora, CO
Thesis Advisor: Scott Rozelle

Tentative Thesis Title: Education, Migration, and Citizenship in Rural China

Future aspirations post-Stanford: I might just keep coaching speech and debate. Diplomacy, academia, and international policymaking would also be cool. I'd also love to work at an Ethiopian restaurant.

A fun fact about yourself: I keep a Quizlet of pretentious vocabulary words.

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Understanding Prigozhin’s Mutiny and What Is — and Isn’t — Happening in Russia

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Melissa Morgan
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From June 23 to 25, the world watched as Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the private militia Wagner Group, ordered his fighters to  seize the military headquarters in the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, demanded the resignation of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov, and advanced his forces toward  Moscow.

The rebellion posed the most significant threat to President Vladimir Putin’s power in his 23-year tenure as Russia’s leader. While the mutiny was abruptly called off following a deal brokered by Belarusian president Aleksandr Lukashenko, the effects continue to reverberate throughout Russia, Eastern Europe, and beyond.

Much is still unknown about the mutiny, Prigozhin’s exile in Belarus, and internal disputes within the Kremlin. But long-time Putin watchers and Russia experts agree that the events of the weekend have significantly weakened Putin’s image as an authoritarian strongman and sole commander of Russia.  

Below, scholars from the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies offer their analysis of how the mutiny may impact Russia, Putin’s power, and the war in Ukraine.


Ongoing Problems for Putin

Kathryn Stoner

Writing in Journal of Democracy, Kathryn Stoner, the Mosbacher DIrector of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law, explains how the rebellion is both a symptom and cause of Putin’s instability as a leader:

“Putin’s rule relies on individual loyalties rather than institutionalized, transparent chains of command and responsibility. This allows him to retain unrivaled control over a hierarchy of patron-client relationships and to change policies quickly before any real internal elite opposition can coalesce. But the result of such a system is that it operates at the mercy of shifting loyalties and is therefore inherently fragile. The Prigozhin rebellion, therefore, is a symptom of this latent instability within Putinism.”

Stoner, who has written previously about the conditions that lead to regime changes in autocracies, offered her insights in The Atlantic on how Putin might try to recoup from the embarrassment caused by the rebellion:  

“What does all of this tell us about what might now be going on in Russia and how Putin might pursue the war in Ukraine going forward? While to us Putin may look weak and ineffective, he will undoubtedly use his control over the Russian media to pin the rebellion on Ukraine, NATO, and Russia’s other enemies. He may even take credit for avoiding mass casualties in a civil war by making a deal with Prigozhin. Spinning the story as best he can, Putin himself will survive, although his carefully crafted myth of competence will be damaged. Over time, this might erode elite confidence, although it is unlikely to result in an open coup attempt anytime soon.”

Stoner believes that there is “much still to learn about all that has transpired,” but that one thing is certain: Putin’s ill-considered war in Ukraine has weakened his grip on Russia.

“Although this is not the end of the war or of Putin,” she says, “the Wagner rebellion might yet prove the beginning of the end of both.”

Kathryn Stoner

Kathryn Stoner

Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL)
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Impacts on Russia, Ukraine, and Beyond

Michael McFaul

The implications of the 72-hour mutiny will last much longer and extend much further beyond Rostov and Moscow, says FSI Director and former U.S. ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul.

Speaking with Madeline Brand of KRCW, McFaul outlined the difficult situation Putin now finds himself in.

“This whole series of events has made Putin look a lot weaker than he looked three or four days ago. The very fact that the Wagner group exists is a sign of weakness. Putin needs them because he couldn’t rely on his armed forces.”

Elaborating further on Putin’s dilemma, McFaul says:

“As those mercenaries were getting closer to Moscow, Putin went on TV and sounded very macho, calling Prigozhin’s men traitors and promising to crush them, but then four hours later, he capitulates and starts to negotiate. And now he’s given another speech where it sounds like he’s pleading with these mercenaries to lay down their weapons and join the Russian forces. That clearly shows he hasn’t resolved this Wagner crisis yet.”

McFaul predicts that Putin’s remaining partners are also taking note of his fumbled reaction to the rebellion.

“​​If you’re Xi Jinping watching this, the big bet you made on Putin as a partner in opposing the West is looking really problematic right now.”

What Chinese officials fear most, McFaul explained to MSNBC’s Jonathn Capehart, is instability and dissolution, both internally and amongst their neighbors. Historically, the collapse of the Soviet Union was a catastrophic event for Chinese Communist Party officials, and a lesson the current leadership is loath to repeat.

McFaul asserts that, “The longer Putin’s war in Ukraine goes, the more probable it becomes that Russia becomes more unstable. The longer this war goes on, the more likely it is we could see something like this play out over and over again. So I would hope that Xi Jinping understands that putting pressure on Putin to end the war in Ukraine is the best way to prevent chaos on China's borders.”

There are also important lessons the United States and its allies need to consider when evaluating the kind of support they are willing to give Ukraine as the war wears on.

“Putin capitulated very fast, and I think that says a lot about how he’s going to fight in Ukraine and whether he needs an ‘off ramp’ like we’ve been saying. We’ve heard all of these arguments that if he’s backed into a corner he’ll never negotiate. Well, this weekend Putin was in a corner, and he didn't double down. He didn't escalate. He negotiated,” McFaul observes.

Continuing this thought on his Substack, McFaul emphasized that, “The lesson for the war in Ukraine is clear. Putin is more likely to negotiate and end his war if he is losing on the battlefield, not when there is a stalemate. Those who have argued that Ukraine must not attack Crimea for fear of triggering escalation must now reevaluate that hypothesis. The sooner Putin fears he is losing the war, the faster he will negotiate.”

Or, as McFaul writes in Journal on Democracy, “Anything that weakens Putin is good for Ukraine. It is as simple as that.”  

Michael McFaul Headshot

Michael McFaul

Director of the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
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Fallout on Nuclear Security and Norms

Rose Gottemoeller

Throughout the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there have been concerns about nuclear sabre rattling by Putin and Kremlin-backed propagandists. Writing in the Financial Times, Rose Gottemoeller, the Steven C. Házy Lecturer at CISAC and former Deputy Secretary of NATO offered this insight:

“The fixation with nuclear apocalypse seems to be the symptom of a wider anxiety that the west is bent on Russian dismemberment because of its aspirations in Ukraine. The Kremlin argues that it only wanted to resume its ancestral right to a Slavic heartland, but that the U.S. and NATO are seeking as punishment Russia’s full and complete destruction as a nation state.”

Gottemoeller has been quick to condemn Putin’s casual threats of nuclear use and clear in her recommendations to the U.S. administration and its allies to find constructive ways to keep nuclear arms talks open despite the war in Ukraine and setbacks like Russia’s suspension of its participation in the New START Treaty.

The Wagner takeover of Rostov-on-Don adds a new layer to the security concerns surrounding Russia’s nuclear posture. Looking at the evolution of Putin’s nuclear rhetoric over the last 18 months, Gottemoeller writes:

“Putin embraced nuclear weapons to keep the United States and its NATO allies off his back and out of his way as he pursued his adventure in Ukraine. It did not work out that way. The United States and NATO were not ready to fight inside Ukraine, but they were willing to do everything else to support Kyiv’s cause — economic, political, security and military assistance to ensure Russia’s defeat. Nuclear weapons failed Putin as a guarantee against external meddling.”

Turning to the events of the last week, Gottemoeller continues:

“We learned on June 24 that they are no help to him internally, either. He could not brandish nuclear weapons in the face of the Wagner Group uprising . . . Nuclear weapons are not the authoritarian’s silver bullet when his power is strained to the breaking point — far from it. In fact, they represent a consummate threat to national and global security if they should fall into the wrong hands in the course of domestic unrest.”

In light of Prigozhin’s mutiny, she urges global leaders to “focus on the problem, stop loose nuclear talk, and put new measures in place to protect, control and account for nuclear weapons and the fissile material that go into them.” 

Woman smiling

Rose Gottemoeller

Steven C. Házy Lecturer at the Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC)
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The Unknown Unknowns of the Settlement

Steven Pifer

Major questions remain about the deal struck between Putin, Prigozhin, and Lukashenko. While Lukashenko has confirmed that the Wagner boss is now in Belarusian territory, it is unclear — and many feel, unlikely — that he will stay there in quiet retirement. 

Weighing in on Twitter, Steven Pifer, an affiliate at the Center for International Cooperation and Security and The Europe Center, and a former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, acknowledged, “We likely do not know all carrots and/or sticks that were in play to lead to Prigozhin’s decision to end his mutiny . . . Something does not add up.”

Following up in Politico, Pifer added:

“The ‘settlement’ supposedly brokered by President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus leaves Putin, who was invisible during the day except for a short morning TV broadcast, as damaged goods. It provided the impression that all was forgiven, likely because the Russian president feared the prospect of Prigozhin’s troops parading in Moscow — even if they lacked the numbers to take control of the capital. It is harder to understand Prigozhin. His demands went unmet, yet he ordered his troops back to garrison, accepted that they might join the Russian army that he detests, and meekly set off for Belarus. There clearly is more behind this ‘settlement’ than we understand.”

Man smiling

Steven Pifer

Affiliate at the Center for International Security and Cooperation and The Europe Center
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Understanding Russia and the War in Ukraine

For more commentary and analysis from FSI scholars about the war in Ukraine and events in Russia, follow the link to our resources page, ‘Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine’

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Russia, Ukraine and Existential War

In recent months, as Russia’s army bogged down and lost ground in Ukraine, Russian pundits and officials began suggesting the war is existential.
Russia, Ukraine and Existential War
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Russian nukes in Belarus - Much ado about little?

In a March 25 interview, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would deploy tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus for use by the Belarusian military.
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Michael McFaul moderates a panel with Oleksiy Honcharuk, Serhiy Leshchenko, Oleksandra Matviichuk, Oleksandra Ustinova on the one-year anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
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Ukraine’s Fight for Democracy, One Year In

To commemorate the first year of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Ukrainian leaders joined a panel hosted by the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies to express their hopes for victory and their gratitude for Western support.
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Crew onboard a 'Terminator' tank support fighting vehicle during a Victory Day military parade in Red Square marking the 75th anniversary of the victory in World War II, on June 24, 2020 in Moscow, Russia.
Crew onboard a 'Terminator' tank support fighting vehicle during a Victory Day military parade in Red Square marking the 75th anniversary of the victory in World War II, on June 24, 2020 in Moscow, Russia.
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Scholars at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies offer insight on what Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny may signal about Russia, Putin’s power, and the war in Ukraine.

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"Measurement Problems: China's GDP Growth Data and Potential Proxies": A Big Data China Event

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Big Data China logo

The event will be webcast live from this page.

In this event on July 5 at 6 a.m. PT / 9 a.m. ET, the Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI) and the CSIS Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics present their latest Big Data China publication. The feature evaluates the efficacy of China’s official GDP growth data and potential alternative proxies. Based on interviews with over a dozen economists and collection of a wide assortment of data, the feature’s authors, Trustee Chair Scott Kennedy and Research Associate Maya Mei, find that although there is substantial skepticism about China’s official data, the majority of experts believe that proper analysis of China’s economic growth trajectory requires consideration of both the official data and a wide range of other metrics.

Following a brief presentation of the feature’s core findings, there will be a roundtable discussion about the pros and cons of the official data and various proxies. Panelists will include Daniel Rosen of the Rhodium Group, Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital Research, and Yao Yang of Peking University.

FEATURING

Scott Kennedy 
Senior Adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics		Maya Mei 
Research Associate, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics
Daniel Rosen 
Senior Associate, Trustee Chair in Chinese Business and Economics		Scott Rozelle 
Co-director, Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Anne Stevenson-Yang 
Managing Principal, J Capital Research		Yao Yang 
Dean, National School of Development, Peking University

EVENT PARTNERS
 

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Virtual Livestream 

Scott Kennedy
Maya Mei
Daniel Rosen

Scott Rozelle

Encina Hall East, E404
Stanford, CA 94305-6055

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Faculty Co-director of the Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions
Helen F. Farnsworth Endowed Professorship
Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Senior Fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research
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Scott Rozelle is the Helen F. Farnsworth Senior Fellow and the co-director of Stanford Center on China's Economy and Institutions in the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research at Stanford University. He received his BS from the University of California, Berkeley, and his MS and PhD from Cornell University. Previously, Rozelle was a professor at the University of California, Davis and an assistant professor in Stanford’s Food Research Institute and department of economics. He currently is a member of several organizations, including the American Economics Association, the International Association for Agricultural Economists, and the Association for Asian Studies. Rozelle also serves on the editorial boards of Economic Development and Cultural Change, Agricultural Economics, the Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, and the China Economic Review.

His research focuses almost exclusively on China and is concerned with: agricultural policy, including the supply, demand, and trade in agricultural projects; the emergence and evolution of markets and other economic institutions in the transition process and their implications for equity and efficiency; and the economics of poverty and inequality, with an emphasis on rural education, health and nutrition.

Rozelle's papers have been published in top academic journals, including Science, Nature, American Economic Review, and the Journal of Economic Literature. His book, Invisible China: How the Urban-Rural Divide Threatens China’s Rise, was published in 2020 by The University of Chicago Press. He is fluent in Chinese and has established a research program in which he has close working ties with several Chinese collaborators and policymakers. For the past 20 years, Rozelle has been the chair of the International Advisory Board of the Center for Chinese Agricultural Policy; a co-director of the University of California's Agricultural Issues Center; and a member of Stanford's Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and the Center on Food Security and the Environment.

In recognition of his outstanding achievements, Rozelle has received numerous honors and awards, including the Friendship Award in 2008, the highest award given to a non-Chinese by the Premier; and the National Science and Technology Collaboration Award in 2009 for scientific achievement in collaborative research.

Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions

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Faculty affiliate at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
Faculty Affiliate at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
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Early Parental Training to Foster Human Capital in Developing Countries

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One out of every three children under the age of 5 in developing countries lives in an environment that impedes human capital development. Children growing up in resource-poor settings are at an increased risk of early developmental delay due to risk factors such as being in environments that lack cognitive stimulation, nutrition, or care in the home environment. Given that early developmental deficits are difficult to reverse later in life, such deficits are key drivers of inequality and impediments for intergenerational mobility. This policy brief reviews this problem and then proposes a design of cost-effective, scalable, and sustainable parental training programs (focusing on psychosocial stimulation for young children) as a global strategy to improve the developmental opportunities of children before they reach the age of 5 in developing countries, to remediate social inequalities, and to boost long-term economic development. We present concrete policy recommendations for the implementation of such programs at scale.

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Think 7 Japan 2023 Policy Paper
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Scott Rozelle

2023 China Business Conference: Washington’s View of China

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Matthew Boswell
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As part of SCCEI’s effort to build bridges between empirical China scholars in academia and China policy experts, SCCEI’s Impact Team attended the 13th Annual China Business Conference held in Washington, D.C. from May 9-10, 2023. Co-hosted by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, the conference has evolved into a critical platform for U.S. government officials, corporate leaders, and policy experts to explore and debate the dynamics of U.S.-China relations.

Washington DC capital building

The conference convened an impressive mix of attendees, including senior officials from the Departments of State and Commerce, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative, Senators and Representatives central to shaping China policy in Congress, executives from multinational companies, and influential members of the beltway China-watching community. Dozens of panelists drawn from these ranks discussed a wide spectrum of issues facing the troubled U.S.-China relationship.

Several panelists expressed pessimism regarding China’s macro-economic outlook.  There was skepticism regarding the depth and durability of China's economic recovery in the post-Zero Covid era. Experts voiced concerns over the robustness of the recovery, casting doubt on whether it can be sustained over the long term. Furthermore, the debates pointed to an increasing consensus on the likelihood of a structural slowdown in China's growth.

Concerns were raised about the worsening climate for policy debate within China. There was reference to an uptick in reactionary policies and emerging "policy schizophrenia" from Beijing, leading to a less predictable policy environment. Panelists noted the mounting pressure for businesses operating in China to align with Beijing's political priorities, which may complicate the operating environment for foreign enterprises. There was a consensus that China's leadership is showing an increased willingness to take risks.

In the discussions centered on U.S. business in China, numerous challenges were highlighted. Regulatory uncertainties, the declining role of businesses in stabilizing U.S.-China relations, and mixed sentiments about the cost-benefit analysis of operating in China took center stage. Despite these hurdles, panelists emphasized the critical role of personal contacts and talent acquisition in navigating this complex landscape. They highlighted the need for U.S. companies to remain engaged in China, stressing the opportunities to learn from innovative Chinese companies, and the importance of success in the Chinese market for global competitiveness in certain sectors. Scenario planning around supply chain risks, market dependency risks, and U.S.-China regulatory uncertainties were advised.

Discussions on geopolitical risk also extended to the sensitive issue of Taiwan. There was a consensus among panelists about the imperative for the U.S. to avoid armed conflict with China and to establish guardrails around this increasingly contentious relationship. A defense department official reiterated US administration’s assessment that military conflict over Taiwan was not imminent or inevitable. In addition, some panelists also encouraged the U.S. administration to provide explicit assurances to Beijing that the U.S. does not support Taiwan independence and is willing to accept any outcome on Taiwan that is arrived at peacefully and that aligns with the interests of the people of Taiwan.

Members of Congress in attendance cited the need for "reciprocity" in relations with China and a collective "awakening" across the policy community to the troubling aspects of China's rise. They also explored the potential for including education, skills training, immigration reforms, and energy and military development in future legislation to bolster the U.S.'s competitiveness vis-à-vis China. Panelists deliberated on the possibility of new policy mechanisms, including an impending outbound investment screening regimen and additional tech export controls. Several panelists also cautioned against wholesale decoupling or US actions that would reinforce perceptions in China that relations are irreparable.

The business and policy making communities are both key audiences for the SCCEI Impact products, and the impact team participates in these events to contribute to and learn from debates among these leading stakeholders in the U.S.-China relationship. These conversations and exchanges of ideas facilitate a rich understanding of the dynamics at play, ensuring that the SCCEI's work remains informed, relevant, and impactful in informing discussions about China and the U.S.-China relationship.


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SCCEI’s Impact Team attended the 13th Annual China Business Conference held in Washington, D.C. in May 2023. The team shares insights from the conference on issues raised surrounding the troubled U.S.-China relationship.

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