Chinese President Xi Jinping's three-day state visit to Washington, D.C., delivered lavish pageantry and a two-month extension of the U.S.-China trade truce but few tangible breakthroughs, according to Mark Lambert, APARC's China policy fellow. He cautioned, however, against scoring the summit as a win or a loss for either side. 

"Having people talk to each other, particularly the leaders of the two strongest economies on planet Earth, is a good thing," said Lambert, a retired U.S. diplomat who served as one of the State Department’s leading China experts, most recently in the role of Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for China and Taiwan and as the Department’s China Coordinator.

Lambert joined APARC Director Kiyoteru Tsutsui on the latest episode of the APARC Briefing video series to assess the outcomes of the Trump-Xi summit and analyze the issues shaping the U.S.-China relationship.

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A Truce Extended, Big Questions Deferred

Lambert described Xi’s state visit as “the third movement in a five-part concert,” following the two leaders’ October 2025 meeting in Busan, South Korea, on the sidelines of the APEC summit, and Trump’s May 2026 visit to Beijing. These engagements spurred talks about a framework to stabilize the tense U.S.-China relations. Looking ahead, Xi has invited Trump to the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November 2026, and Trump hopes to host Xi at the G20 in Florida in December.

Each leader has domestic reasons to keep bilateral tensions low, Lambert pointed out. In the United States, the midterm elections and soaring gas and grocery prices are front and center. In China, high youth unemployment and demographic pressures loom large, and Xi, facing a Party plenum next month, needs to show he has the American relationship in a good place from a Chinese perspective.

"Both leaders have bigger fish to fry right now than antagonizing one another," Lambert explained, noting that the White House did an effective job of keeping expectations from Xi’s state visit modest. Washington and Beijing agreed to extend their trade truce through January 2027, but announced little else beyond that and a commitment to hold further talks, and provided no specificity on the economic and trade aspects of the U.S.-China bilateral relationship.

“It seems like what came out of last week's summit was: ‘Let's carve out a few areas where we can trade, recognizing that the vast majority of sensitive areas are either too delicate or too complex, not ripe right now to deal with,’” Lambert observed, predicting that the likely trend moving forward is more de-risking by both sides. 

Skepticism on AI

The White House announced the U.S. and China have agreed to start a dialogue on AI, with a communications channel to help defuse the technology’s risks. Lambert, however, is doubtful this effort will yield much, noting that a similar commitment emerged from the Biden-Xi 2023 meeting in San Francisco but was never fleshed out.

"I am not convinced that China is all that serious about working on artificial intelligence,” he said. “Every time we've tried to have meetings on AI, they will send diplomats; they will send political-type figures. They don't send real experts on artificial intelligence. And that makes it very difficult to talk about safeguards and protecting ourselves from accidents or other things.”

The American and Chinese summit readouts also describe AI quite differently. While the White House said China had agreed to the term "superintelligence," Lambert emphasized that "not once did the Chinese use the term superintelligence in their readout."

"It's good that they're talking about it," he said, but "I will be very surprised if it leads to real, meaningful discussion about these core issues on artificial intelligence.”

Taiwan, Japan, and U.S. Allies

On Taiwan, according to Lambert, Trump did not give Beijing the language it has long sought: that Washington "opposes," rather than "does not support," Taiwan’s independence. Having put forward the largest arms sales package to Taiwan in U.S. history, the Trump administration has postponed it to avoid jeopardizing the summit with President Xi. With two additional in-person meetings between the two leaders expected this year, Lambert predicts the arms sales deal will be postponed until the new year. 

Asked about Xi's referencing shared U.S.-China history during World War II, when the two nations fought together “against Japanese militarist aggressors,” Lambert replied, "History is history. We don't deny history, but I don't think it's wise to let ourselves become a prisoner of history." He called Japan "the keystone relationship with the United States in the Pacific," arguing the moment was "a missed opportunity for President Trump" to acknowledge the wartime relationship with China while also affirming the alliance with Japan and urging Xi to improve ties with Tokyo. He reiterated long-standing advice to new presidents: talk to allies before going to Beijing.

Iran and China’s leverage

Lambert said that China, "hands down Iran's biggest trading partner," has been reluctant to take on the responsibilities of a global power in international affairs. He pointed to Chinese banks and shipping companies that help Iran circumvent U.S. sanctions. Despite subdued rhetoric from Beijing at the United Nations, "I haven't seen anything to suggest that China is going to lessen its support of Iran." Beijing could help Washington end the unpopular war with Iran, but is unlikely to use that leverage.

Symbolism and what comes next

Lambert called President Trump’s personal welcome of Xi at Joint Base Andrews "really unprecedented" and "overdone," and said Beijing is portraying it as American recognition of China as an equal. Still, he cautioned against writing off the United States as a declining power. “Yes, we make mistakes all the time, and I personally think we're in a pretty difficult time right now. But don't count us out.”

SCCEI is pleased to welcome the first cohort of predoctoral researchers for the 2026-27 academic year:

Miriam Shatto, 2026-27 Predoctoral Researcher
 

Miriam Shatto is working with Professor Shanjun Li, joining his research program on the Economics for Sustainability and Energy Transition (eSET). She works on industrial decarbonization pathways, carbon accounting, renewable energy development, and the electric vehicle (EV) industry.

Miriam plans to pursue a PhD in economics after her predoc year. Though she hadn’t done research on China before, that was part of what drew her to the position. “I have an appreciation generally for the huge energy transition that China has undergone over the last 20 years. The growth in the EV industry has just been insane,” she said. “And I think, as Dr. Li frequently points out, it is so understudied.”

Noting that the topic may not get the attention it deserves from U.S. policymakers, she added, “There’s just a lot of work to be done there, and I’m always looking for a place where work can be done.”

She has also found a warm welcome in the eSET group. “I think everyone’s been incredibly welcoming. This is a group of people who are super kind and supportive, and it’s clearly very close-knit,” she said. “Dr. Li’s always holding little events for us, it’s clear that he really tries to foster a collaborative community.”

Zhao Guo, 2026-27 Predoctoral Researcher
 

Zhao Guo is working under the mentorship of Professor Andrew Walder on his research defining the architecture of China’s corporate sector. This project is part of a larger effort that will eventually culminate in a book, tentatively titled The Rise of Industrial China, which will blend business history with the sociology of organizations and political economy analysis of China’s industrial sector.

Over the coming year, Miriam and Zhao will contribute to research that helps build understanding of China's economy, from its energy transition to its industrial past. We're excited to see what this first cohort does, and we look forward to growing the program in years to come.

This article was edited for clarity and brevity using Claude. All outputs were reviewed by humans and the final expression was produced by the author.

Looking back at the long list of pages on Canvas, I feel so accomplished about finishing the Design Thinking into Action: Teen Wellbeing course. From the first “Introduce Yourself” video we filmed, edited, and shared with our classmates, to the final prototype presentation, every module showed me a different way to think about teen wellbeing and how our skills could create real, meaningful change. 

What made this course so special was that learning wasn’t restricted to the weekly virtual classes. The resource pages for each module on Canvas created a great balance between theory and practice, input and output. We learned about topics like the teenage brain, managing academic stress, creating a body map, and purpose learning. We didn’t just write essays as in a traditional class. We created prototypes with step-by-step exercises leading up to our final project. My favorite part was the design thinking process: empathizing with a real person, defining a need statement, brainstorming wildly, prototyping, and iterating based on feedback. The prototype I created, called the “Dream Door,” was designed for a friend who feels lonely and disconnected from peers and frustrated by surface-level conversations. The “Dream Door” is a small box with a bell and color-coded prompts to help her start deeper conversations with classmates. While creating the prop for my friend, I also learned to solve my own wellbeing challenges through the same process. When I gifted the finished product to my friend, her excited reaction felt better than any grade. That’s the magic of this design thinking course. When we truly empathize with someone, understand their needs, and listen to their feedback, we can see the physical results our ideas have on them. 

I participated in this course during a particularly challenging time. When the course began, I was overseas for an exchange program. Then I returned to China to prepare for AP exams, which felt like an ever-present gray cloud looming over me. Instead of adding to my stress, this course helped me navigate it more clearly. One of my favorite classes with a Stanford scholar, Dr. Cari Costanzo, combined anthropology with our connection to our bodies through an exercise called body mapping, a creative and reflective piece of art that pushed us to reflect on important aspects of our lives. When I added drawings of the AP exams in the thought bubble above my head on my body map, I realized they were my current, main priority. In this course I also learned that the concept of “failing forward” and pacing ourselves aren’t just nice ideas; they are ways to sustain our busy lives. After the Stanford e-China course ended, as I was taking an exam back in my regular school in China, I wrote about the concept of “failing forward” in my essay. I literally smiled in the middle of the exam because I was so excited to apply what I’d learned. 

I also loved the small, surprising moments, like drawing my body map and realizing I could create a stickman with my arms and legs because I’ve been drawing them since primary school. I also loved writing a reflection of my views on life and education and noticing that my love for roller coasters and seeking thrilling experiences actually drives how I approach learning. 

I left this course with a toolbox I’ll use for life, for studying, for friendships, for future projects. I’m leaving with gratitude. Thank you to Stefanie Orrick, Carey Moncaster, and the whole Stanford e-China team for creating a space where teenagers can be creative, vulnerable, and ambitious all at once. 

Innovating Wellbeing: Human-Centered Design in the AI Era (formerly Design Thinking into Action: Teen Wellbeing) is one of several online courses offered by SPICE.

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