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CDDRL Honors Student, 2025-26
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Marco is a coterminal M.A. candidate in International Policy on the Governance and Development track. He is concurrently finishing his B.A. in Political Science at Stanford with concentrations in Political Economy & Development and Data Science. Marco is also currently writing an honors thesis with the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), leveraging survey experiments to investigate how different conceptualizations of democracy influence public responses to democratic backsliding in Indonesia.

He has previously worked at the World Bank’s Development Impact Evaluation (DIME) unit and the National Endowment for Democracy’s International Forum for Democratic Studies (IFDS). His research interests lie at the intersection of comparative governance, international political economy, and democratic resilience, having served as a research assistant with both the Stanford Next Asia Policy Lab and the Hoover Institution. In his spare time, he enjoys listening to jazz, going camping, and trying out new recipes.

CDDRL Undergraduate Communications Assistant, 2024-25
Master's in International Policy Class of 2027
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APARC Predoctoral Fellow, 2024-2025
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Alisha Elizabeth Cherian joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as APARC Predoctoral Fellow for the 2024-2025 academic year. She is a PhD candidate in Social and Cultural Anthropology at Stanford University. She received her BA from Vassar College in Anthropology and Drama with a correlate in Asian Studies, and her MA in the Social Sciences from the University of Chicago.

Her dissertation, entitled "Beyond Integration: Indian Singaporean Public Urban Life", investigates how enforced racial integration shapes racial formations and race relations in Singapore. Her project explores everyday encounters and interactions that are structured, but not overdetermined, by the state's multiracial policies as well as colonial histories and regional legacies of Indian indentured and convict labour. With her research, she seeks to contribute to a more ethnographic understanding of how plural societies are approached both scholarly and practically.

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Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow, 2024-2025
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Mai Nguyen joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as Asia Health Policy Postdoctoral Fellow for the 2024-2025 academic year. She holds a PhD in health services and health policy from Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Australia, and a Master of Science from Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University.

Her doctoral research focused on how the expanding private healthcare sector can be managed more effectively to better supplement public health services to achieve universal health coverage in Vietnam. The study analyzed large and complex national health datasets from two consecutive Household Living Standard Surveys, clinical hospital data at national levels and in-depth interviews with key stakeholders of Vietnam's health system to investigate consumers' choice for private and public health care services in Vietnam. Her research findings have implications for policy change in terms of harnessing and regulating private health services in Vietnam and other Asia-Pacific countries, especially low and middle-income countries.

Dr. Nguyen has worked as a senior health specialist at Vietnam Ministry of Health. Her research interest stems from her professional experience in health policy and program management, including health policy and management, health services, private healthcare and health equity. Her works have been published in many Q1-international journals such as BMC Public Health, BMC Health Services Research, Human Resources for Health and International Journal of Health Policy and Management.

At APARC, Dr. Nguyen extended her research on the roles of private healthcare to supplement the public health sector to address the growing burden of chronic diseases and conditions in Vietnam.

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Visiting Scholar at APARC, 2024-2025
Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Fellow on Southeast Asia, Fall 2024-Winter 2025
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Meredith L. Weiss joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) as 2024-2025 Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Fellow on Southeast Asia from September 2024 to April 2025. She is Professor of Political Science in the Rockefeller College of Public Affairs & Policy at the University at Albany, State University of New York (SUNY). In several books—most recently, The Roots of Resilience: Party Machines and Grassroots Politics in Southeast Asia (Cornell, 2020), and the co-authored Mobilizing for Elections: Patronage and Political Machines in Southeast Asia (Cambridge, 2022)—numerous articles, and over a dozen edited or co-edited volumes, she addresses issues of social mobilization, civil society, and collective identity; electoral politics and parties; and governance, regime change, and institutional reform in Southeast Asia, especially Malaysia and Singapore. She has conducted years of fieldwork in those two countries, along with shorter periods in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Timor-Leste, and has held visiting fellowships or professorships in Australia, Japan, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, and the US. Weiss is the founding Director of the SUNY/CUNY Southeast Asia Consortium (SEAC) and co-edits the Cambridge Elements series, Politics & Society in Southeast Asia. As a Lee Kong Chian NUS–Stanford fellow, she worked primarily on a book manuscript on Malaysian sociopolitical development.

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CDDRL seminar with James Fearon - A Theory of Elite-initiated Democratization, Illustrated With the Case of Myanmar

Around half of democratic transitions are "top-down" in the sense that the autocrats write the constitution that governs post-transition democracy (Albertus and Menaldo 2015). We analyze a model of elite-driven democratization, illustrating its logic and implications in the case of Myanmar.  In the model, continued dictatorship is costly and inefficient due to the risk of a violent rebellion and, possibly, the increase in aid, trade, and geopolitical support that would follow democratization. But the autocrats fear that fair elections would lead quickly to their marginalization. We argue, contrary to a common suggestion, that paper constitutions that provide veto points for the old elite are not by themselves sufficient protection. Top-down "democratic transitions" are really cases of power-sharing, in which the old elite retains de facto control of rent streams that the opposition cannot unilaterally seize simply by changing laws. As the military's coup threat declines over time, democracy may eventually "consolidate."  If the coup threat declines dramatically and is anticipated to do so, a reversion back to autocracy is possible. We also show how the prospect of increased international aid, trade, and investment makes top-down transitions more likely, though only when post-transition power-sharing is feasible.

ABOUT THE SPEAKER

James D. Fearon is Geballe Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences, and Professor of Political Science at Stanford University, and a Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Freeman-Spogli Institute for International Studies. His research has focused on civil and interstate war. He has also published on international relations theory, democratization, foreign aid and institution building, and post-conflict reconstruction. Fearon is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences (2012) and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences (2002), and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. From 2007 to 2010, he was Chair of the Department of Political Science at Stanford. He served as a Senior Adviser in the U.S. Department of Defense in 2021 and 2022, where he worked primarily with the production and implementation team for the 2022 National Defense Strategy.

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to Encina E008 in Encina Hall may attend in person.

Hesham Sallam
Hesham Sallam

Virtual to Public. Only those with an active Stanford ID with access to E008 in Encina Hall may attend in person.

CISAC
Stanford University
Encina Hall
Stanford, CA 94305-6165

(650) 725-1314
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Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies
Theodore and Frances Geballe Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences
Professor of Political Science
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James Fearon is the Theodore and Frances Geballe Professor in the School of Humanities and Sciences and a professor of political science. He is a Senior Fellow at FSI, affiliated with CISAC and CDDRL. His research interests include civil and interstate war, ethnic conflict, the international spread of democracy and the evaluation of foreign aid projects promoting improved governance. Fearon was elected to the National Academy of Sciences in 2012 and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2002. Some of his current research projects include work on the costs of collective and interpersonal violence, democratization and conflict in Myanmar, nuclear weapons and U.S. foreign policy, and the long-run persistence of armed conflict.

Affiliated faculty at the Center for International Security and Cooperation
Affiliated faculty at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law
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Kelly Reiling is a project manager at the Rural Education Action Program (REAP) at Stanford Center on China’s Economy and Institutions (SCCEI). Kelly graduated from Colgate University in 2022 with a B.A. in International Relations and Chinese Language. Following graduation, she lived in Taitung, Taiwan on a Fulbright Fellowship, where she taught English and coached soccer to elementary school students. Her experiences at Colgate and in Taiwan instilled in her a deep interest in cross-cultural collaboration, early education, and Chinese language, which led her to join REAP in the summer of 2024. Kelly works on a variety of subjects at SCCEI, including early childhood development research and health, education, and public policy projects.

Project Manager, Rural Education Action Program
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Michael Breger
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Indonesia’s “New Order,” the authoritarian military regime led by General Suharto from 1966-1998, originated following the kidnapping and killing of six Army generals on September 30th-October 1, 1965. The conventional narrative often depicts this regime change as a sudden event, but historian Norman Joshua, APARC's 2023-24 Shorenstein postdoctoral fellow on contemporary Asia, challenges this view.  Joshua’s research explains why the civil-military relationships and social militarization that emerged in Indonesia from the period under Dutch colonial rule in the preceding decade allowed the New Order to solidify power in 1965.

In a recent seminar hosted by APARC’s Southeast Asia Program, “Militarization Overlooked: Rethinking the Origins of Indonesia’s New Order, 1950-1965,” Joshua shared his insights into the complex phenomenon of militarization within Indonesian society, spanning from the tumultuous post-independence era to the present day. Through a historian's lens, he traces the origins of militarization and its far-reaching impacts on political, social, and cultural dynamics in Indonesia.

An Environment Conducive to Militarization


At the heart of this narrative lies the period following Indonesia's revolutionary struggle and independence from Dutch colonial rule. Scholars have portrayed the 1950s favorably as a time when Indonesia embarked on an experiment with liberal and constitutional democracy. Joshua, however, argues that, instead of heralding an era of stability and democratic governance, “the post-revolutionary landscape was fraught with underdevelopment, persistent conflict, and political instability.” This environment provided fertile ground for the gradual militarization of Indonesian society, as the military sought to quell armed groups and revolutionary violence.

"In essence, my current project is an endeavor to write a social and cultural history of Indonesian authoritarianism," Joshua explains. He frames this process as militarization, wherein civil society organizes itself for the production of violence.

Joshua's scholarly curiosity about Indonesian authoritarianism stems from his deep-seated interest in the country's post-revolutionary period. He is particularly drawn to the oft-overlooked years of the 1950s and 1960s, which he deems pivotal in comprehending Indonesia's authoritarian trajectory. He was also drawn to the topic by a family member’s involvement in the revolutionary and Communist movements, leading to their exile from Indonesia after the 1965 massacres, “which sparked my interest in studying ‘those who were on the wrong side of history,' so to speak.”

Joshua sheds light on the role of armed revolutionary factions like the Gerombolan, whose lingering presence posed a challenge to the nascent Indonesian government's efforts to establish control and maintain order, even bearing responsibility for the murder of Yale professor Raymond Kennedy and Time-Life reporter Robert Doyle.

"Militarization produced a militarized society that was regimented and conditioned towards the use of violence," Joshua asserts. His analysis reveals how militarization permeated various facets of Indonesian society, from the adoption of military symbolism to the normalization of violence in everyday life.

An Enduring Legacy of Militarization


Joshua cites the continuing role of the military and police in post-1998 Indonesian society. The Army—and the Police, which is in many ways a constabulary force—have retained their territorial organization, and former and active-duty military and police often participate in non-security affairs. He also highlights the important role of security forces in facing domestic challenges such as the ongoing insurgency in Papua.

Joshua considers militarization from a cultural standpoint, including the fetishization of uniforms, marches, and militia-like organizations. Militarization, he notes, is often manifested in slogans, songs, ceremonies, and indoctrination programs. For example, the slogan "Ganyang Malaysia," originating from Sukarno's call to "crush" Malaysia, became emblematic of Indonesian nationalism and militarism.

Challenges for Democracy


Despite the downfall of the New Order regime, Joshua underscores the implications of the enduring legacy of militarization in contemporary Indonesia. Just two months ago, Indonesian voters elected Prabowo Subianto, a former special forces commander with a controversial history, as their next president. Expressing apprehensions about the potential for further militarization, Joshua points to the ascendancy of leaders like Prabowo. "Militarization under Prabowo would be evident in two ways," he cautions, citing increased military budgets and an expanded role for the military in non-security affairs. “While we have yet to hear about the shape of Prabowo’s cabinet, I believe that we will see an increasing role for the military and police—whether active-duty or retired—in non-military affairs,” he said.

“This trend started during the Jokowi administration and will continue under Prabowo, and has invited concerns from civil rights organizations and human rights groups. Ultimately, I think Prabowo’s election is a test for Indonesia’s democratic values and how resilient the civil society is.”

Assessing the health of Indonesian democracy, Joshua notes fluctuations that warrant concern. "Indonesian democracy is still working well, especially compared to neighboring countries," he observes. “I think the election of Prabowo shows the robustness of Indonesian democratic procedures, as the 2024 Presidential Election was conducted peacefully and with relatively minor complaints of voting fraud or irregularities.” However, he highlights potential challenges ahead. “It appears that Indonesian democracy will face a great challenge in the next four years, and we will see if the guardrails of democratic procedure will hold or not.”

An Interdisciplinary Scholar Community


As a Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow, Joshua connected with APARC scholars to further his research. “I work mostly with Southeast Asia Program Director Don Emmerson and am glad to be connected with APARC faculty Stephen Kotkin, who I found as an inspiration for my work,” he notes. Engaging with Lee Kong Chian Fellow on Southeast Asia Soksamphoas Im, who works on authoritarian politics in Cambodia, with fellow scholar Yuya Ouchi, and Visiting Scholar Gita Wirjawan, who is an expert practitioner of Indonesian politics, has also been an enriching experience, Joshua says. conversations with .”

Delving into the Hoover Institution archives, Joshua examined the papers of Guy Pauker, an Indonesianist and “Cold Warrior” in the 1960s, and his engagement with Indonesian poet, writer, and scholar Sutan Takdir Alisjahbana, who was a fellow at Stanford’s Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences.

“I am grateful to have spent my postdoctoral fellowship at APARC, as it allows me to spend more time working on my dissertation toward transforming it into a monograph,” said Joshua.

“The interdisciplinary nature of APARC is particularly helpful for a young scholar like me and helped the process of refining my arguments, especially in terms of engaging with people outside of my field and academic discipline."

After his time at APARC, Joshua will serve as the Hoover History Lab’s Research and Teaching Fellow at the Hoover Institution under Condoleezza Rice and Stephen Kotkin.

Joshua’s research provides a comprehensive exploration of the nature of civil-military relations within Indonesian society. By tracing its historical roots and examining its contemporary manifestations, he provides valuable insights into how militarization has shaped Indonesia's political, social, and cultural milieu.

His analysis of the militarizing process offers scholars insights into an understudied period in Indonesian history and helps us better understand the origins of authoritarian military regimes worldwide. As Indonesia continues to navigate its path forward, grappling with the legacies of its militarized past will undoubtedly remain a complex and pressing challenge.

“I believe that history serves as more than just a chronicle of the past,” Joshua reflects. “It serves as a vital lens through which we can comprehend and contextualize the events that are still unfolding in our contemporary world.”
 

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South Korea's main opposition Democratic Party (DP) leader Lee Jae-myung (C) and candidates, watches TVs broadcasting the results of exit polls for the parliamentary election at the National Assembly on April 10, 2024 in Seoul, South Korea.
Commentary

“Korea Is Facing a Crisis in Political Leadership”: Stanford Sociologist Gi-Wook Shin Unpacks the Korean Parliamentary Elections

Following the disappointing performance of South Korea’s ruling People Power Party in the April 10 parliamentary elections, Stanford sociologist and APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin analyzes the implications of the election outcomes for President Yoon’s domestic and foreign policies and Korean society and economy.
“Korea Is Facing a Crisis in Political Leadership”: Stanford Sociologist Gi-Wook Shin Unpacks the Korean Parliamentary Elections
Robert Carlin, Siegfried Hecker, and Victor Cha
News

A Perilous Crossroads: Deciphering North Korea's Escalating Belligerence

Amid North Korea’s increasing provocations, APARC’s Korea Program hosted three experts — Robert Carlin, Victor Cha, and Siegfried Hecker — to consider whether Pyongyang plans to go to war.
A Perilous Crossroads: Deciphering North Korea's Escalating Belligerence
Portrait of Kiyoteru Tsutsui and a silhouette of the Toyko Syline at night.
News

Decoding Japan's Pulse: Insights from the Stanford Japan Barometer

The Asahi Shimbun is publishing a series highlighting the Stanford Japan Barometer, a periodic public opinion survey co-developed by Stanford sociologist Kiyoteru Tsutsui and Dartmouth College political scientist Charles Crabtree, which unveils nuanced preferences and evolving attitudes of the Japanese public on political, economic, and social issues.
Decoding Japan's Pulse: Insights from the Stanford Japan Barometer
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Norrman Joshua
Photo Credit: Aaron Kehoe
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Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow Norman Joshua examines how state-society interactions in Indonesia produced an authoritarian political culture, tracing the implications of the country’s enduring legacy of militarization.

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Reconsidering Southeast Asia, May 16

Join us in celebrating a quarter-century of scholarship, learning, and intellectual exchange on Southeast Asia at Stanford! This special all-day event will bring together experts to discuss a variety of current issues in Southeast Asia including geopolitical competition, environmental sustainability, and gender inequality. The economic and sociopolitical futures of the region will also be debated, and alumni of the Southeast Asia Program will share their scholarly experiences and findings.

8:00-8:30 a.m.
Registration


8:30-8:40 a.m.

Welcome remarks
Gi-Wook Shin
Director of Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

Celebratory remarks
Richard Saller
President of Stanford University

8:40-9:00 a.m.

Opening remarks
Don Emmerson
Director of the Southeast Asia Program, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

Celebratory remarks
Kathryn Stoner
Mosbacher Director of the Center on Democracy, Development and Rule of Law

Video messages
The Honourable Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim
Prime Minister of Malaysia
Pita Limjaroenrat
Member of Parliament, Prime Ministerial Candidate of Move Forward Party, Thailand 


9:00-10:30 a.m.
Panel 1 — The Anthropocene in Southeast Asia: Two Rivers

Panelists
James Scott
Sterling Professor Emeritus, Political Science; Acting Director, Agrarian Studies; Professor Emeritus, School of Forestry & Environmental Studies and Anthropology and Institute for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University (via Zoom)

Brian Eyler
Senior Fellow and Director, Southeast Asia Program and the Energy, Water, and Sustainability Program, Stimson Center

Moderator 
Rebakah Daro Minarchek
Assistant Teaching Professor, Integrated Social Sciences, University of Washington


10:30-10:45 a.m.
Coffee and Tea Break


10:45 a.m.-12:15 p.m.
Panel 2 — Geopolitics and U.S. Policy in Southeast Asia

Panelists            
Yuen Foong Khong
Co-Director of the Centre on Asia and Globalization and Li Ka Shing Professor in Political Science, National University of Singapore (via Zoom).

Scot Marciel
Oksenberg-Rohlen Fellow at Shorenstein APARC and Former U.S. Ambassador to Myanmar, Indonesia, and ASEAN

Elina Noor
Senior Fellow, Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Gregory B. Poling
Senior Fellow/Director, Southeast Asia Program & Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Center for Strategic and International Studies

Moderator 
Don Emmerson
Director of the Southeast Asia Program, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University


12:15-1:00 p.m.
Lunch Break


1:00-2:30 p.m.
Panel 3 — Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Fellowship on Southeast Asia: Looking Back and Forward 

Panelists
Jacques Bertrand
Professor of Political Science and Director of the Collaborative Master’s Specialization in Contemporary East and Southeast Asian Studies at the Asian Institute of the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Affairs, University of Toronto

Paul Schuler
Associate Professor, University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy

Gerald Sim
Professor of Film and Media Studies, Florida Atlantic University

Mark R. Thompson
Chair Professor of Public and international Affairs and Director, Southeast Asia Research Centre, City University of Hong Kong

David Timberman
Independent Analyst and Consultant; Former Director of Asia Programs, Freedom House

Angie Ngọc Trần
Professor of Political Economy in the Social Sciences and Global Studies Department, California State University, Monterey Bay

Moderator 
Robert Hefner
Professor, Department of Anthropology and the Pardee School of Global Affairs, Boston University


2:30-2:45 p.m.
Coffee and Tea Break


2:45-4:15 p.m.        
Panel 4 — Gender Inequality in Southeast Asia: Causes, Consequences, Solutions

Panelists
Mina Roces
Professor of History in the School of Humanities and Languages in the Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, The University of New South Wales

Mala Htun
Professor of Political Science, the University of New Mexico

Moderator 
Barbara Watson Andaya
Professor in the Asian Studies Program and former Director of the Center for Southeast Asian Studies, University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa


4:15 - 4:30 p.m.
Coffee and Tea Break


4:30-5:45 p.m.
Panel 5 — The Future of Southeast Asia

Gita Wirjawan
Visiting Scholar at Shorenstein APARC and Former Minister of Trade of the Republic of Indonesia

Richard Heydarian
Columnist and Senior Lecturer at the Asian Center of the University of the Philippines, Diliman

Moderator 
Don Emmerson
Director of the Southeast Asia Program, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University


5:45-6:00 p.m.

Closing Remarks
Don Emmerson
Director of the Southeast Asia Program, Shorenstein APARC, Stanford University

Conferences
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Visiting Scholar at APARC, 2023-2024
Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Fellow on Southeast Asia
Gerhard Hoffstaedter.jpeg Ph.D.

Gerhard Hoffstaedter joined the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (Shorenstein APARC) as Visiting Scholar and Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Fellow on Southeast Asia for the 2024 spring quarter. He currently serves as Associate Professor in Anthropology at the University of Queensland, Brisbane. While at APARC, he conducted research on the effects of irregular migration trajectories of refugees in Southeast Asia.

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As tensions continue to grow between China and the United States, Southeast Asian nations remain locked in the epicenter of an emergent geopolitical competition. Many questions remain as to how these countries will respond to the external pressures generated by this rivalry.

To address these questions, Southeast Asia Program Director Donald K. Emmerson recently joined ONE News Philippines host Richard Heydarian for an interview in an episode of the series The View From Manila. The full interview is available below:

Heydarian opened the conversation by asking whether great power competition between China and the United States constituted a new Cold War. According to Emmerson, this was not the case, and another Cold War in the region is unlikely to happen due in part to the economic interconnectedness between China and the United States.

Over the course of the conversation, Emmerson discussed the various challenges ASEAN member nations face as they balance their own domestic needs and desire for autonomy with the increasingly tenuous international political scene in the South China Sea.

Emmerson emphasized the potential vulnerability of ASEAN member states amidst clashes between superpower countries. “It's natural that the diversity of Southeast Asia would be an opportunity for large, powerful outsiders to come in and try to establish support that would further divide Southeast Asia,” he said of the potential for great power rivalry to continue and perhaps worsen the multiple divisions and distinctions that already exist within Southeast Asia.

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Panelists discuss the US-Japan alliance
News

A Pivotal Partnership: The U.S.-Japan Alliance, Deterrence, and the Future of Taiwan

A panel discussion co-hosted by Shorenstein APARC and the Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA examined the key dynamics at play in the unfolding regional competition over power, influence, and the fate of Taiwan.
A Pivotal Partnership: The U.S.-Japan Alliance, Deterrence, and the Future of Taiwan
Norman Joshua
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Postdoc Perspective: Norman Joshua

Norman Joshua, APARC’s Shorenstein Postdoctoral Fellow on Contemporary Asia for the 2023-24 academic year, reflects on his work and career path.
Postdoc Perspective: Norman Joshua
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Richard Heydarian and Donald Emmerson
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In a new interview, Southeast Asia Program Director Donald K. Emmerson discusses the history and politics that have shaped great power competition in Southeast Asia and how the intensifying rivalry between China and the United States might affect ASEAN member states.

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