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The Japan Program held the fourth annual Stanford Juku on Japanese Political Economy from September 29 – October 1. Over 40 scholars from various parts of the US and Japan participated in the conference, which took place at the Oksenberg Conference Center at Encina Hall. The first portion of the program (9/29 and morning of 9/30) focused on research in political science/political economy and international relations, and the latter portion of the program (afternoon of 9/30 and 10/1) focused on research in economics.

The main goal of the program is to attract young researchers who will go on to become leaders in the study of Japanese politics and Japanese economy in the near future.  Distinctive features of the Juku are the long times allotted to each paper to allow for two in-depth discussants and discussion among participants, as well as ample time for informal discussions and interactions among participants allowing for collaborations and expansion of the network of researchers on Japan in political science and economics. We received a large volume of quality paper submissions this year, which made the selection process very competitive. 

The first day included four papers in political science/political economy and international relations. Daniel Smith from Harvard University presented a paper co-authored by Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College) and Teppei Yamamoto (Massachusetts Institute Technology) entitled, "Identifying Voter Preferences for Politicians' Personal Attributes: A Conjoint Experiment in Japan," with discussants Ethan Scheiner (University of California, Davis) and Mike Tomz (Stanford University).

Amy Catalinac (New York University) presented a paper co-authored by Frances Rosenbluth (Yale University) and Hikaru Yamagishi (Yale University) entitled "Party Strategies and Foreign Policy in Post-Electoral Reform Japan." The Discussants for the paper were Gary Cox (Stanford) and Teppei Yamamoto (MIT).

Jacques Hymans from University of Southern California presented his paper on “The Limits of Japan's Energy Angst: The Case of Geothermal Power.” Mark Thurber (Stanford) and Steve Vogel (University of California, Berkeley) were the discussants.

The fourth paper was “Democratic Community and Its Consequences: Evidence from Japan” by Jonathan Chu (Stanford), discussed by Christina Davis (Princeton University) and Megumi Naoi (University of California, San Diego).

Christina Davis (Princeton) started off the second day by presenting her paper “Joining the Club: Accession to the GATT/WTO." Discussants were Jonathan Chu (Stanford) and Phillip Lipscy (Stanford).

The political science/political economy section ended with Megumi Naoi (UC, San Diego) presenting a paper co-authored by Chun-Fang Chiang (National Taiwan University), Jason Kuo (Post-doc, Georgetown University), Jing-tan Liu (National Taiwan University) entitled, "What Do Voters Learn from Foreign News? Experimental Evidence on PTA Diffusion in Japan and Taiwan." Discussants were Kenji Kushida (Stanford) and Yuki Takagi (Stanford). 

After lunch, two economics papers were presented.  Wataru Miyamoto (Bank of Canada) presented a paper co-authored by Thuy Lan Ngyuen (Santa Clara University) and Dmitriy Sergeyev (Bocconi University) entitled, "Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan" with discussants Yuriy Gordonichenko (UC, Berkeley) and Johannes Wieland (UC, San Diego).

The second paper was “Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan”, by Robert Dekle (USC), Nobuhiko Kiyotaki (Princeton) and Tsutomu Miyagawa (Gakushuin University).  Huiyu Li (Federal Bank of San Francisco) and Shuichiro Nishioka (West Virgina University) were the discussants.  A group dinner followed the second day.

The final day included four papers in economics.  The first was “Will the Sun Also Rise? Five Growth Strategies for Japan by Yoko Takeda (Mitsubishi Research Insitute).  Discussants were Michael Hutchison (US, Santa Cruz) and Ryo Kambayashi (Hitotsubashi University).

The second paper was "Natural Disaster and Natural Selection" by Hirofumi Uchida (Kobe University), Daisuke Miyakawa (Hitotsubashi), Kaoru Hosono (Gakushuin), Arito Ono (Chuo University), Taisuke Uchino (Daito Bunka University) and Iichiro Uesugi (Hitotsubashi).  Discussants were Nobuhiko Hibara (Waseda University) and Johannes Wieland (UC, San Diego).

Koichiro Ito (University of Chicago) presented a paper co-authored by Takanori Ida (Kyoto University) and Makoto Tanaka (GRIPS) entitled “Information Frictions, Switching Costs, and Selection on Elasticity: A Field Experiment on Electricity Tariff Choice.”  Karen Eggleston (Stanford) and Hitoshi Shigeoka (Simon Fraser University) were the discussants.

The final paper was “Good Jobs and Bad Jobs in Japan: 1982-2007” by Ryo Kambayashi (Hitotsubashi) and Takao Kato (Colegate University), discussed by Takeo Hoshi (Stanford) and David Vera (California State University, Fresno).

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For more information contact Mr. Brian Graf

Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA, 202-296-6694, bgraf@spfusa.org

This event is free and open to the public.

Innovative new technologies, from components like batteries to systems such as airplanes, demand the specific properties of a growing number of rare metals used in complex combinations and in increasingly refined amounts. Technology now relies on an entirely new set of critical materials, namely rare metals, for products manufactured today that are very different from those produced just twenty years ago.

While the world is not running out of rare metals, developing new supply lines can take a decade or more. Advanced economies are approaching a point where the speed of development and number of new devices will outpace the ability to secure the materials this new industrial age requires. As new devices proliferate, advanced countries like the United States and Japan are linking their economic futures to rare metals, with production often dominated by one mine or one country.

On November 30, Sasakawa USA will partner with the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Cetner at Stanford University to hold a conference to discuss and lay out the challenges, opportunities, and limitations of creating resilient supplies of critical materials. This will be the first conference to bring together companies from the entire the rare metal supply chain, including experts and officials from both Japan and the United States, countries that both rely on the entire spectrum of these resources for manufacturing. 

 

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Stanford Juku on Japanese Political Economy 2016

September 29 - October 1, 2016

Oksenberg Conference Room

Stanford Japan Program at Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center

The Japan Program at the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (S-APARC) at Stanford University started Stanford Summer Juku (SSJ) in 2013.  In SSJ, researchers on Japanese politics and Japanese economy get together and discuss their research in a relaxed setting. The fourth annual meeting is held at Stanford on September 29 - October 1, 2016.  The first portion of the program focuses on research in political science/polilitcal economy and international relations, and the latter portion of the program focuses on research in economics.

Takeo Hoshi, Kenji E. Kushida, Phillip Lipscy

 

Report - Stanford Juku 2016

 

Program

9/29/2016

8:30-9:00    Breakfast

9:00-10:15  Session I:

"Identifying Voter Preferences for Politicians' Personal Attributes: A Conjoint Experiment in Japan", Yusaku Horiuchi (Dartmouth College), Daniel Smith (Harvard University) and Teppei Yamamoto (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Discussants:
Ethan Scheiner (University of California, Davis)
Mike Tomz (Stanford University)
 

10:15-10:45  Break

10:45-12:00  Session II:

Party Strategies and Foreign Policy in Post-Electoral Reform Japan, Amy Catalinac (New York University), Frances Rosenbluth (Yale University), Hikaru Yamagishi (Yale University)

Discussants:
Gary Cox (Stanford University)
Teppei Yamamoto (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)
 

12:00-1:00  Lunch

1:00-2:15    Session III:

The Limits of Japan's Energy Angst: The Case of Geothermal Power, Jacques Hymans (University of Southern Califorrnia) and Fumiya Uchikoshi, Ph.D. (University of Tokyo)

Discussants:
Mark Thurber (Stanford University)
Steve Vogel (University of California, Berkeley)
 

2:15- 3:30   Session IV:

Democratic Community and Its Consequences: Evidence from Japan, Jonathan Chu (Stanford University)

Discussants:
Christina Davis (Princeton University)
Megumi Naoi (University of California, San Diego)

 

9/30/2016

8:30-9:00   Breakfast

9:00-10:15 Session I:

“Joining the Club: Accession to the GATT/WTO”, Christina Davis (Princeton University) and Meredith Wilf (University of Pittsburgh)

Discussants:
Jonathan Chu (Stanford University)
Phillip Lipscy (Stanford University)
 

10:15-10:45  Break

10:45-12:00  Session II:

What Do Voters Learn from Foreign News? Experimental Evidence on PTA Diffusion in Japan and Taiwan”, Chun-Fang Chiang (National Taiwan University), Jason Kuo (Post-doc, Georgetown University), Jin-tan Liu (National Taiwan University), and Megumi Naoi (University of California, San Diego)

Discussants:
Kenji Kushida (Stanford University)
Yuki Takagi (Stanford University)
 

12:00-1:00  Lunch

1:00-2:15    Session III:

Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan”, Wataru Miyamoto  (Bank of Canada), Thuy Lan Ngyuen (Santa Clara University) and Dmitriy Sergeyev (Bocconi University)

Discussants:
Yuriy Gordonichenko (University of California, Berkeley)
Johannes Wieland (University of California, San Diego)
 

2:15-3:30    Session IV:

Product Dynamics and Aggregate Shocks: Evidence from Japanese product and firm level data”, Robert Dekle (University of Southern California), Atsushi Kawakami (Teikyo University), Nobuhiro Kiyotaki (Princeton University) and Tsutomu Miyagawa (Gakushuin University)

Discussants:
Huiyu Li (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
Shuichiro Nishioka (West Virginia University)
 

6:30        Group Dinner at Tacolicious
 

 

10/1/2016

8:30-9:00    Breakfast

9:00-10:15  Session I:

Will the Sun Also Rise? Five Growth Strategies for Japan”, Yoko Takeda (Mitsubishi Research Institute)

Discussants:
Michael Hutchison (University of California, Santa Cruz)
Ryo Kambayashi (Hitotsubashi University)
 

10:15-10:45  Break

10:45-12:00  Session II:

Natural Disaster and Natural Selection”, Hirofumi Uchida (Kobe University), Daisuke Miyakawa (Hitotsubashi University), Kaoru Hosono (Gakushuin University), Arito Ono (Chuo University), Taisuke Uchino (Daito Bunka University) and Iichiro Uesugi (Hitotsubashi University)

Discussants:
Nobuhiko Hibara (Waseda University)
Johannes Wieland (University of California, San Diego)
 

12:00-1:00  Lunch

1:00-2:15    Session III:

Information Frictions, Switching Costs, and Selection on Elasticity: A Field Experiment on Electricity Tariff Choice”, Koichiro Ito (University of Chicago), Takanori Ida (Kyoto University) and Makoto Tanaka (GRIPS)

Discussants:
Karen Eggleston (Stanford University)
Hitoshi Shigeoka (Simon Fraser University)
 

2:15-3:30    Session IV:

Good Jobs and Bad Jobs in Japan: 1982-2007”, Ryo Kambayashi (Hitotsubashi University) and Takao Kato (Colegate University)

Discussants:
Takeo Hoshi (Stanford University)
David Vera (California State University, Fresno)

 

 

616 Serra StreetEncina Hall E301Stanford, CA 94305-6055
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Young-ju Choi joins the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center as a visiting scholar during the 2016-2017 academic year.  Her research interests are focused on North Korea and Northeast Aisa regional dynamics and the prospective changes of Korea-US relationship post US presidential election this year. She is also currently researching how the Korean mass media is shaping views on Korea’s presidential scandal. Young-ju is an anchor and a journalist at YTN, the first 24-hour news agency in South Korea. In her trademark casual and confident style, Young-ju has anchored all the contemporary major breaking news that have unfolded across the globe. Young-ju also covered a number of stories ranging from domestic politics, international affairs, including the Korean Peninsula issues and Northeast Asia political dynamics.  Young-ju graduated with honors from Seoul National University where she obtained a bachelor's degree in Geography. She enjoys traveling all over the globe and enjoys swimming, scuba diving and golf.
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The Economist quote's REAP's research on early childhood development. Read the original article here.

The Lancet reckons that 43% of under-fives in poor countries, in other words about 250m kids, will fail to meet their “developmental potential” because of avoidable deficiencies in early childhood development (ECD).

Their young brains are sensitive. In the first three or so years after birth, when up to 1,000 synapses are formed per second, they are vulnerable to trauma which triggers stress hormones. Though some stress is fine, too much is thought to hinder development. Neglect is also corrosive. Young children benefit from lots of back-and-forth dealings with adults. Research by the Rural Education Action Programme, based at Stanford University, suggests that rural children in China have “systematically low cognition”, partly as a result of being reared by grandparents who pay them little attention while parents work in cities.

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Erin Baggott Carter, a CISAC fellow during 2014-16, recently published a Washington Post op-ed on the Chinese media coverage of the current U.S. presidential election. This is a result of CISAC's increased focus on requiring and helping all CISAC fellows publish an op-ed based on their academic research. Carter is now an assistant professor at the School of International Relations at the University of Southern California. Click here to read the entire op-ed, with charts and additional links. Below is the written portion:

 

Erin Baggott Carter

How do the 2016 U.S. elections appear outside the United States? The state-controlled Russian media clearly leans toward Republican nominee Donald Trump, who appears to admire President Vladimir Putin.

But what about China’s state-controlled media? Given Trump’s frequent references to China as a major cause of U.S. job losses — and his promises to get tough on trade pacts — one might expect harsh reporting on Trump.

To test this theory, I scraped China’s leading state-affiliated print news media from May 1 to Oct. 24, looking for references to the two candidates and automatically coding whether nearby words indicated a positive or a negative tone. This exercise shows that official Chinese-language media leans somewhat toward “Hillary” (as the Democratic candidate is referred to in China) in terms of favorable mentions.

Early this summer, Chinese state media covered Trump far more often than Hillary Clinton. But by this fall, the volume of coverage was nearly equal. There has been very little coverage of trade policies or economic implications for China. Instead, Chinese reporting tends to focus on scandals and missteps. This does not reflect a typical “horse-race” view of elections. Instead, as my ongoing research shows and some journalists point out, Chinese propaganda likes to emphasize the flaws of democracy as a political system.

The graph below shows the volume of coverage for both candidates. In early May, state-run newspapers mentioned Trump five times as often as they mentioned Clinton. This imbalance has steadily declined. Currently, the candidates are mentioned with nearly identical frequency.

The next graph shows the editorial tone of coverage of Trump and Clinton. Since May, Chinese propaganda has consistently covered Clinton more favorably, although both candidates have become slightly less popular over time. Clinton’s favorability rating started at 92 percent in May and declined to 77 percent in late October. Trump’s favorability rating started at 79 percent in May and declined to 71 percent in late October.

China’s state-run newspapers have said relatively little about the candidates’ policies and their implications for U.S.-China relations. Instead, coverage has focused on scandals: Clinton’s deleted emails and Trump’s affinity for Vladimir Putin, his tax returns, and his relationships with women.

Excluding generic campaign words and filler words, the most commonly used words about Clinton include “email,”  “investigation,” “Russia,” “FBI,” “lawsuit,” “Clinton Foundation,” “scandal,” “husband,” and “women.” The most commonly used words about  Trump include “Russia,” “Putin,” “intraparty,” “criticism,”  “immigrants,” “tax payments,” “slander,” “New York,” “magnate,” “women” and “real estate.”

Why is Clinton getting better coverage?

China’s preference for Clinton over Trump is notable for two reasons. First, China has a tepid relationshipwith Clinton. In her first visit to Beijing in 1995, she refused to meet with senior leaders and criticized Chinese human rights practices, neither of which endeared her to her hosts. As secretary of state, she implemented the Obama administration’s strategy of rebalancing toward Asia, which many in China interpreted as a move toward containment. After Clinton left the State Department, the China Daily wrote that she “always spoke with a unipolar voice and never appeared interested in the answers she got.”

Second, it takes a lot for Chinese leaders to take China-bashing from U.S. presidential candidates seriously. They learned from Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush that U.S. presidents rarely enact the anti-China campaign platforms that help carry them to victory. For instance, as Mitt Romney ramped up his criticism of Chinese trade practices in 2012, China’s Global Times speculated, “Is Romney’s toughness toward China just a scam? … His soft stance is only a matter of time.”

These two facts speak to the depths of Chinese concern about a Trump presidency. Despite China’s historical antipathy toward Clinton and willingness to countenance tough campaign rhetoric, Chinese propaganda still favors Clinton over Trump.

This is important because the American media has recently speculated that China, like Russia, may prefer a Trump presidency because it would lead the United States to withdraw from the world. Although there are doubtless some in the 88 million-member Chinese Communist Party who hold this view, China is far more integrated into the American financial system than Russia is and has commensurately larger stakes in U.S. economic stability.

For instance, as the U.S. financial sector was unraveling in September 2008, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson asked China not to sell Treasury bonds. China agreed, Paulson tells us in his memoirs, even though Russia invited China to weaken the American economy by dumping bonds in concert.

Now, as was the case eight years ago, when forced to choose between global stability and relative gains over the United States, Chinese leaders prefer global stability. Although Trump offers China the enticing possibility of American withdrawal from the Asia-Pacific sphere, Chinese leaders have begrudgingly cast their lot with the devil they know. This is evident from the propaganda they control, which favors Clinton over Trump.

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Former CISAC fellow Erin Baggott Carter discusses China's media coverage of the U.S. election in a Washington Post op-ed, noting that so far the evidence points to them favoring Clinton over Trump. | ronniechua, Getty Images
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DUE TO THE OVERWHELMING RESPONSE FOR THIS EVENT, WE ARE NOW FULLY BOOKED AND UNABLE TO TAKE FURTHER RSVPS.

 

Are mass violence and catastrophes the only forces that can seriously decrease economic inequality? To judge by thousands of years of history, the answer is “Yes.” Tracing the global history of inequality from the Stone Age to today, Walter Scheidel shows that inequality never dies peacefully. Periods of increased equality are usually born of carnage and disaster and are generally short-lived, disappearing with the return of peace and stability. The Great Leveler is the first book to chart the crucial role of violent shocks in reducing inequality over the full sweep of human history around the world.

Ever since humans began to farm, herd livestock, and pass on their assets to future generations, economic inequality has been a defining feature of civilization. Over thousands of years, only violent shocks have significantly lessened inequality. The “Four Horsemen” of leveling—mass-mobilization warfare, transformative revolutions, state collapse, and catastrophic plagues—have repeatedly destroyed the fortunes of the rich. Scheidel identifies and examines these processes, from the crises of the earliest civilizations to the cataclysmic world wars and communist revolutions of the twentieth century. Today, the violence that reduced inequality in the past seems to have diminished, and that is a good thing. But it casts serious doubt on the prospects for a more equal future.

An essential contribution to the debate about inequality, The Great Leveler provides important new insights about why inequality is so persistent—and why it is unlikely to decline any time soon.

 

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Walter Scheidel is the Dickason Professor in the Humanities, Professor of classics and history, and a Kennedy-Grossman Fellow in Human Biology at Stanford University. The author or editor of sixteen previous books, he has published widely on premodern social and economic history, demography, and comparative history.

 

 

Walter Scheidel Dickason Professor in the Humanities Speaker Stanford University
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Singapore brandishes an unusual post-colonial identity. As several of its eminent voices have suggested, the country remembers its colonial past with “no hangups.” Meanwhile the visibility of Singapore’s cinema has surged at festivals and in film criticism. Prof. Sim will argue that the films reflect the city-state’s distinctive location between post-colonialism and globalization. He will show how the films evince a local preoccupation with space, which is desperately scarce on the island nation and thus intensely politicized. He will explore how the films map, organize, and understand Singapore as a place, and Singapore’s place in the world, while retaining the ideological inflections of its post-colonial status.

Existing scholarship on cinema in Singapore dwells on how the films, as texts, respond to social realities, political power, and state ideology. These readings are legitimate and illustrative. But they do not adequately account for Singapore’s postcolonial identity and how that identity is expressed in a mapping impulse. Prof. Sim will go beyond this literature to analyze key films, art and museum exhibits, and other cultural artifacts as symptoms of Singapore’s intriguing but understudied fixation on space and place.

Gerald Sim is associate professor of film and media studies at Florida Atlantic University, and the author of The Subject of Film and Race: Retheorizing Politics, Ideology, and Cinema (2014). His current book-in-progress, tentatively entitled Besides Hybridity: Postcolonial Poetics of Southeast Asian Cinema, is contracted with Indiana University Press. In 2016 and 2013 he was a visiting senior research fellow in the National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute.

 

Gerald Sim 2016-17 Lee Kong Chian NUS-Stanford Distinguished Fellow on Southeast Asia
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Caixin Media writes about REAP's research on rural China's epidemic of slow cognitive development, caused by poor parenting. Read the original article here.

Children in rural areas of China suffer from slow cognitive development due to a lack of proper parenting and nutrition, casting a shadow over the future of the country's economy, a Stanford University study shows.

Scott Rozelle, co-director of the Stanford University Rural Education Action Program (REAP), told Caixin that more than half of the toddlers 24 to 30 months old and about 40% of the infants 6 to 18 months old scored below average in IQ tests. The average IQ score for these age groups should range between 90 to 109.

By monitoring the development of 2,500 children across Shaanxi, Hebei and Yunnan provinces in 2015, the REAP study found that the poor development of rural children was mostly due to poor parenting.

Only about 5% of parents in rural areas read books to their children, and 70% of families surveyed possessed only one book, or no books at all, the study showed.

"Chinese families love their children but don't know much about parenting," Rozelle said. "They think reading a book or singing to their babies is silly because they think 'They're just babies.' "

The study also showed that malnutrition also contributed to poor development.

The situation in rural areas could pose a major challenge for China as the country shifts its economy from traditional low-margin manufacturing to services and technology, Rozelle said. If learning difficulties cannot be overcome before a child reaches the age of 3 — a crucial window for child development — hundreds of millions of young people could be in danger of becoming permanently impaired physically and developmentally.

"Ultimately, if China becomes a high-wage, high-income society, a large share of these children will be unemployable," he said.

Malnutrition also contributes to slower intellectual development, the study showed. More than 70% of infants 6 to 18 months old in Yunnan have anemia — a lack of red cells that ferry oxygen around the body. The figure is about 60% in Hebei, and 50% in Shaanxi.

While nutritional supplements could help promote improved cognitive skills, the impact was seen to be relatively small and only aided infants 6 to 18 months old, the study showed.

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Formal organizational structures have expanded, worldwide, over recent decades, particularly in the neo-liberal period. In the background are the scientization of many aspects of social life, expanded conceptions of human empowerment, and the consequent explosive expansion of education.  Educational systems have a great deal in common worldwide, so expanding international organizational structures are also common. Prof. Meyer will discuss the domestic and international expansion of organizations, including for-profit, non-profit, and public agencies of all sorts, and the consequential rise of social movements for organizational “social responsibility.” 

John W. Meyer is Professor of Sociology (and, by courtesy, Education), emeritus, at Stanford.  He has contributed to organizational theory, comparative education, and the sociology of education, developing sociological institutional theory.  Since the 1970s, he has studied the impact of global society on national states and societies. In 2003 he completed a collaborative study of worldwide science and its national effects. He is currently working on a collaborative project on the impact of globalization on organizational structures.  

For registration, please email your name, affililiation, number and event title to: sanjiu39@stanford.edu 

 

STANFORD CENTER AT PEKING UNIVERSITY

 The Lee Jung Sen Building, Langrun Yuan, Peking University

 

John Meyer Professor of Sociology and, by courtesy, of Education, Emeritus Stanford University
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